Core Viewpoint - The recent focus of the U.S. on critical minerals during diplomatic efforts, particularly in Asia, highlights a long-standing issue of mineral supply dependency, which has become a central theme in U.S. foreign policy [1][17]. Group 1: Historical Context - The U.S. has recognized the importance of strategic minerals since at least 1921, when the first official list was created [3]. - In 2010, the U.S. established a "Critical Minerals Subcommittee," and by 2018, it published a list of 35 critical minerals, revealing a heavy reliance on imports for 31 of them, with 13 having no domestic supply capability [3][5]. Group 2: Current Dependency and Supply Chain Issues - By 2025, the critical minerals list expanded to 54, focusing on those essential for new energy and artificial intelligence [5]. - The U.S. Geological Survey developed a model to simulate the impact of supply disruptions for 84 minerals across over 1,200 scenarios, indicating significant economic risks [5]. - The top 10 critical minerals are predominantly controlled by other countries, with samarium and rhodium being heavily reliant on China and South Africa, respectively [8][10]. Group 3: Global Competition and Cooperation - The U.S., Japan, and Europe share a consensus on 18 core minerals, which are crucial for strategic industries, but their distribution is highly concentrated in a few countries [8][10]. - China dominates the production of non-energy minerals, accounting for over half of global output and leading in rare earth processing [10]. Group 4: Challenges in Building a Domestic Supply Chain - The U.S. has attempted to create a mineral supply chain with allies like Canada and Australia, but faces significant challenges, including infrastructure limitations and high costs of establishing production facilities [12][15]. - The U.S. lacks sufficient skilled labor in mineral processing, with a shortfall of over 20,000 professionals in the field [14]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The U.S. approach to mineral security has led to increased costs in global mineral trade and a fragmented supply chain, which may not benefit its own industries [15][17]. - The agreements signed during Trump's Asia trip are seen as temporary measures that do not address the underlying supply chain issues, emphasizing the need for cooperative strategies rather than competitive ones [17].

Core Insights - The true control of the global mineral supply chain lies not in ownership of underground resources but in the mastery of refining capabilities [1] - China's near-monopoly in the rare earth refining sector has been highlighted, with a significant price surge observed following export controls [1] Group 1: Market Concentration - Global rare earth mineral trade is extremely concentrated, with 89% of trade relationships relying on a few suppliers [3] - Specifically, 43% of trade relationships depend on five or fewer suppliers, while 46% rely on three or fewer suppliers [3] - Key emerging and developing economies dominate the extraction of critical raw materials, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo supplying 73% of cobalt ore and Guinea supplying 70% of aluminum ore [3] Group 2: China's Dominance in Refining - Despite the dispersion of raw material extraction across various countries, nearly all processing and refining stages are concentrated in China [3] - China supplies 65% of the world's refined lithium and nearly 80% of refined cobalt, controlling over 90% of global refined rare earth supply [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - China's dominant position in the mineral supply chain has been systematically built over the past two decades, focusing on facilities and technologies for converting raw materials into usable inputs for batteries and green technologies [6] - Geopolitical tensions have intensified reliance on Chinese mineral supply chains, with over 90% of U.S. rare earth imports coming from China in 2023, up from 70% in 2013 [6] Group 4: Future Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement is strategically significant but unlikely to alter the global mineral supply landscape in the short term, as the bottleneck lies in refining capacity rather than extraction [7] - Ukraine possesses about 5% of global rare earth reserves and significant lithium and titanium reserves, but the increase in critical mineral supply remains a distant prospect [7] - Establishing rare earth refining in Ukraine will take years and may require a comprehensive overhaul of the global supply chain [7]