Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - This week, iron ore prices fell from their highs. The supply side has remained stable since November, with Australian mainstream ore remaining basically flat year-on-year, and Brazilian ore contributing a small increase. Non-mainstream shipments decreased slightly month-on-month from the high in the third quarter but still contributed an increase year-on-year. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is expected to remain loose. - On the demand side, the domestic terminal steel demand has been declining rapidly on a quarter-on-quarter basis since the third quarter, and there is no sign of significant improvement in the fourth quarter. In October, steel consumption in the real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors all declined. In the medium term, domestic terminal steel demand is expected to continue to operate at a low level. - Overseas demand for iron ore has maintained high growth. From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, or 27 million tons. Since the second quarter, overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level year-on-year, continuously contributing to the increase. Among them, overseas India's crude steel output increased by 10% year-on-year from January to October, or 12.6 million tons, and is expected to contribute an additional 15 million tons for the whole year. - Overall, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices. Since the fourth quarter, the domestic iron element supply-demand pattern has remained loose, domestic iron element inventories have continued to increase, and the fundamentals of iron ore have undergone significant changes. It is expected that iron ore prices will mainly operate at high levels with a downward trend. - Trading strategy: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; hold a wait-and-see attitude for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; hold a wait-and-see attitude for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 31.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, or 31.9 million tons. Among them, the weekly average of Australian shipments is 17.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, or 1.8 million tons, and the weekly average of Brazilian shipments is 7.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, or 13 million tons. - **Mainstream Mines in Australia and Brazil**: Since 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, or 1.9 million tons, BHP's shipments have decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, or 300,000 tons, FMG's shipments have increased by 4.8% year-on-year, or 8.2 million tons, and Vale's shipments have increased by 0.5% year-on-year, or 1.2 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines has increased by more than 7 million tons year-on-year since the beginning of the year. - **Non-Mainstream Mines**: Since 2025, the weekly average of non-Australian and non-Brazilian ore shipments has been 5.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, or 21 million tons. The weekly average of non-mainstream Australian ore shipments is 2.37 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, or 7.9 million tons, and the weekly average of non-mainstream Brazilian ore shipments is 2.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, or 12 million tons. The non-mainstream ore shipments have been improving since the third quarter, and are expected to contribute a large increase for the whole year, but the domestic import volume is still negative year-on-year [15][17]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic hot metal production has increased by 3% year-on-year, or 11.3 million tons, and crude steel production has increased by 2.6% year-on-year, or 11.8 million tons. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 4% year-on-year, or 7.8 million tons, the apparent demand for non-building materials has decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, or 4.8 million tons, and domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) has decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, or 12.6 million tons. The manufacturing steel demand has turned negative year-on-year since the third quarter, exerting significant pressure on the current terminal steel demand. - **Overseas Demand**: From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, or 27 million tons. Since the second quarter, overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level year-on-year, continuously contributing to the increase. Among them, overseas India's crude steel output increased by 10% year-on-year from January to October, or 12.6 million tons, and is expected to contribute an additional 15 million tons for the whole year [30]. Inventory - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: This week, the imported iron ore port inventory increased slightly month-on-month, the steel mill inventory increased slightly, and the berthing volume remained basically flat, resulting in a month-on-month increase of over 1 million tons in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an inventory accumulation of over 12 million tons. The current total domestic iron element inventory is at a five-year high, second only to the level in 2021 [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue its high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved, with demand weakening and supply remaining stable, and the valuation is moderately high with limited upward driving force [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillatory, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable and the ore price will continue to oscillate [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is continuously declining. Short - term production restrictions still have an impact, and the positive effect is weakening. Domestic port arrivals have decreased, but overseas miners' shipments remain high. According to shipping schedules, the arrival of Australian and Brazilian ores is expected to increase. Overseas ore supply is high, but domestic ore production is restricted, and overall ore supply is stable. Market sentiment has improved, and the ore price has strengthened again, but the fundamentals have not improved [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. The inventory has increased again, with more steel mills undergoing inspections, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has declined. Although the daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week, they are still at relatively high levels, providing support for iron ore prices, but the sustainability needs to be monitored. Overseas iron ore supply has shrunk due to the end of the fiscal - year - end volume rush, while domestic ore supply is stable. Currently, both supply and demand of iron ore have weakened, and the fundamentals have deteriorated again, putting pressure on iron ore prices. However, due to the fermentation of favorable policy expectations and limited contradictions in the black industry, iron ore prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the decline in miners' shipments [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,878.40, a week - on - week decrease of 51.83 and a year - on - year decrease of 1,110.26 [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory was 8,918.57, a week - on - week increase of 71.10 and a year - on - year decrease of 294.34 [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume was 2,363.00, a week - on - week decrease of 199.70 and a year - on - year decrease of 107.20 [1]. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.60, a week - on - week decrease of 149.10 and a year - on - year decrease of 354.90 [1]. - Overseas ore supply has shrunk due to the end of the fiscal - year - end volume rush, and domestic ore supply is stable [2]. Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average pig iron output was 240.85, a week - on - week decrease of 1.44 and a year - on - year increase of 1.53 [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption was 300.81, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 and a year - on - year increase of 7.60 [1]. - 45 - port daily average ore - clearing volume was 319.29, a week - on - week decrease of 6.65 and a year - on - year increase of 9.82 [1]. - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions was 98.90, a week - on - week increase of 1.10 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.36 [1].

Group 1 - The recent decline in iron ore prices is attributed to both seasonal factors and changes in supply-demand dynamics [1] - Rio Tinto's approval of a 31 million ton mining project raises questions about future iron ore prices [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively stable. Ore terminal consumption is weakly stable. This week, the average daily hot metal output of sample steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week, while the daily consumption of imported ore increased slightly. Both remained at relatively high levels, supporting the ore price. However, due to the weakening of steel mill production in the off - season, ore demand will still decline, and the positive effect is not strong. Meanwhile, the arrival of domestic ports continues to rise, the overseas miners' shipments have increased to the highest level of the year, and there is an expectation of miners' volume - rushing at the end of the fiscal year, so overseas ore supply will remain high. Although domestic mine production has decreased due to inspections, it is not sustainable, and the overall ore supply pressure is still large. In conclusion, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much. Demand remains high but has a weakening expectation, and the positive effect is not strong. On the contrary, miners are active in shipping at the end of the fiscal year, and the supply pressure is large. The fundamentals of the ore will weaken under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the ore price will be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the deep discount of the futures price and the warming of market sentiment. Under the logic of discount repair, the downward resistance is large. In the short term, the positive factors will dominate, and the ore price may fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the change of hot metal [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,826.69, a week - on - week decrease of 39.89, a decrease of 39.89 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 1,101.07 compared with the same period. 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory was 8,690.18, a week - on - week decrease of 64.15, a decrease of 64.15 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 528.02 compared with the same period [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume was 2,536.50, a week - on - week increase of 385.20, an increase of 385.20 compared with last month, and an increase of 280.50 compared with the same period. Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume was 3,431.00, a week - on - week increase of 242.30, an increase of 242.30 compared with last month, and an increase of 182.30 compared with the same period. Domestic mine production decreased due to inspections, but the decrease was not sustainable [1][2]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 241.80, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11, a decrease of 0.11 compared with last month, and an increase of 6.05 compared with the same period. The 45 - port average daily port clearance volume was 313.99, a week - on - week decrease of 12.69, a decrease of 12.69 compared with last month, and an increase of 1.17 compared with the same period. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 300.48, a week - on - week increase of 0.80, an increase of 0.80 compared with last month, and an increase of 12.38 compared with the same period. The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions was 95.20, a week - on - week decrease of 1.74, a decrease of 1.74 compared with last month, and a decrease of 2.38 compared with the same period [1].