Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper mine supply disruptions have been ongoing this year, leading to a decline in supply growth, while copper smelting capacity is expected to increase by over 2 million tons by 2025 and more than 1 million tons in 2026, exacerbating the conflict between mining and smelting [1] - The TC price has been maintained below -40 USD/ton since April this year, with long-term TC at only 21 USD/ton, and the expectation is that TC prices will remain low in 2026, increasing the probability of domestic copper smelting reductions [1] - The CSPT group's proposal to reduce production capacity by 10% could involve nearly 1 million tons of capacity, and the expectation of reduced copper smelting may further support rising copper prices [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have rapidly increased, with market expectations for a rate cut in December rising to 86.4%, which is likely to benefit both base and precious metals [1] - In the silver market, low inventory levels have supported prices reaching historical highs, with total silver inventory at the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange at 1,235 tons, close to a 10-year low, increasing the sensitivity of prices to supply-demand gaps [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Securities Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering industries such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the Chinese A-share market, with constituent stocks having larger market capitalizations and better liquidity [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% to 3472.32 points, and the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.54% to 3982.2 points as of July 4 [2][4] - The SW Nonferrous Metals Industry Index saw a gain of 1.03%, closing at 5147.33 points [2][4] Sub-industry Performance - Among the five sub-industries in the nonferrous metals sector, the changes were as follows: Industrial metals +1.46%, Precious metals +0.96%, Minor metals -0.18%, Energy metals +1.00%, and Metal new materials +0.41% compared to the previous week [2][4] Key Metal Prices - Key metal prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were as follows: Copper at 79,730 CNY/ton (-0.01%), Aluminum at 20,635 CNY/ton (+0.29%), Zinc at 22,410 CNY/ton (-0.07%), Lead at 17,295 CNY/ton (+0.58%), Nickel at 122,270 CNY/ton (+1.36%), and Tin at 267,250 CNY/ton (-0.92%) [3] - Gold and silver prices were reported at 777.06 CNY/gram (+0.90%) and 8,919 CNY/kilogram (+1.24%) respectively [3] - COMEX gold and silver prices were 3,426 USD/ounce (+4.20%) and 36.78 USD/ounce (+1.11%) respectively [3] Investment Insights - The U.S. Senate passed a revised "Big Beautiful Bill" which is expected to increase the deficit significantly, raising concerns about the U.S. dollar's credit system [4][5] - The anticipated expansion of debt may lead global central banks to increase gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices [4] - Recent disruptions in copper transportation in Peru due to protests have affected supply, while U.S. market dynamics are expected to create structural shortages in global copper supply [4][5] - The price gap between COMEX and LME copper has widened, with LME copper reaching a peak of 10,010 USD/ton [5]