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大美丽法案通过推升美国赤字,金价震荡回升 | 投研报告
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% to 3472.32 points, and the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.54% to 3982.2 points as of July 4 [2][4] - The SW Nonferrous Metals Industry Index saw a gain of 1.03%, closing at 5147.33 points [2][4] Sub-industry Performance - Among the five sub-industries in the nonferrous metals sector, the changes were as follows: Industrial metals +1.46%, Precious metals +0.96%, Minor metals -0.18%, Energy metals +1.00%, and Metal new materials +0.41% compared to the previous week [2][4] Key Metal Prices - Key metal prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were as follows: Copper at 79,730 CNY/ton (-0.01%), Aluminum at 20,635 CNY/ton (+0.29%), Zinc at 22,410 CNY/ton (-0.07%), Lead at 17,295 CNY/ton (+0.58%), Nickel at 122,270 CNY/ton (+1.36%), and Tin at 267,250 CNY/ton (-0.92%) [3] - Gold and silver prices were reported at 777.06 CNY/gram (+0.90%) and 8,919 CNY/kilogram (+1.24%) respectively [3] - COMEX gold and silver prices were 3,426 USD/ounce (+4.20%) and 36.78 USD/ounce (+1.11%) respectively [3] Investment Insights - The U.S. Senate passed a revised "Big Beautiful Bill" which is expected to increase the deficit significantly, raising concerns about the U.S. dollar's credit system [4][5] - The anticipated expansion of debt may lead global central banks to increase gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices [4] - Recent disruptions in copper transportation in Peru due to protests have affected supply, while U.S. market dynamics are expected to create structural shortages in global copper supply [4][5] - The price gap between COMEX and LME copper has widened, with LME copper reaching a peak of 10,010 USD/ton [5]