Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to ongoing supply tightness and high prices suppressing downstream demand, leading to a reaccumulation of social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Morning trading saw copper prices weakly running, with a slight recovery in the afternoon, closing up by 0.1% [1] - Domestic market electrolytic copper inventory reached 206,000 tons on November 3, an increase of 17,400 tons compared to October 27, and up 13,800 tons from October 30 [1] - The overall performance of downstream enterprises remains relatively weak due to high copper prices, which have limited procurement demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about copper supply have intensified due to frequent mining accidents this year and declining ore grades in old mines [1] - Last week, Glencore and Anglo American reported a decline in copper sales for the first nine months, contributing to ongoing worries about supply tightness [1] - Chile's copper production in September fell by 4.5% year-on-year to 456,663 tons, according to the Chilean National Statistics Institute [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicated that the domestic market remains slightly oversupplied, with future attention needed on whether overseas inventories will be reduced [1] - The outlook for copper prices is influenced by less optimistic expectations from US-China negotiations and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to a price retreat [1] - Despite these factors, the macroeconomic drivers have not changed, and the tight supply background is expected to maintain high price fluctuations in the short term [1]

此前美国对等关税落地，市场担忧贸易链断裂可能拖累经济增长并推高通胀，风险资产普遍遭遇抛售， 铜价也难逃跌势。随后贸易冲突开始缓和，铜价迎来修复之路，但是可以看到沪铜在4月初跳空缺口处 明显承压，而下方支撑同样较强，期价一直在78000一线附近横盘震荡。最近沪铜为何进退两难？后续 期价有可能打破震荡局面吗？ 关税缓冲期不确定性仍存 最近美国与各国谈判进行中，特别是在中美90天对等关税下调到10%后，市场一度交易关税局势缓和逻 辑，不过部分谈判推进较为缓慢，最近特朗普态度变化，再次提议加征欧盟关税，市场也在担心关税缓 冲期过后贸易摩擦再起的可能性，短期关税缓和的利好已经基本消化，难以对市场情绪构成更多支撑。 另外，为了转移国内债务规模庞大等矛盾，美国对其他国家关税很难恢复至今年以前水平，经济增长前 景担忧无法轻易解除。从最近公布的美国经济数据来看，目前关税扰动所带来的冲击有限，美国4月通 胀表现低于预期，零售销售月率超预期上升0.1%，5月Markit制造业和服务业PMI也均超预期。不过美 国高额债务问题仍然存在，6月还有大量美债集中到期，最近特朗普的减税法案在众议院以微弱优势通 过，市场继续担心美国债台高筑，关 ...