Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Zhonghui Futures indicates that the short-term focus for copper prices should be within the range of 78,500 to 81,000 yuan, with a long-term bullish outlook due to ongoing global copper supply tightness and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Changjiang Futures expects copper prices to operate in the range of 78,500 to 81,000 yuan in the short term, suggesting a cautious approach to holding long positions due to potential demand suppression from rising prices and ongoing tariff uncertainties [1][2] - Guantong Futures anticipates a slow upward trend in copper prices amidst a volatile market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and uncertain tariff policies, while also considering the tight supply of copper and weak U.S. economic data [2] Group 2 - The recent performance of copper futures shows a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 80,760.00 yuan and closing at 80,640.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.09% increase [1] - The macroeconomic sentiment appears to be improving, with the U.S. copper premium over London copper expanding, although concerns about seasonal demand and tariff uncertainties may continue to exert pressure on prices [1][2] - The upcoming expiration of a 90-day tariff exemption on July 9 is expected to reignite tariff negotiations, adding to the uncertainty in the copper market [1]

此前美国对等关税落地，市场担忧贸易链断裂可能拖累经济增长并推高通胀，风险资产普遍遭遇抛售， 铜价也难逃跌势。随后贸易冲突开始缓和，铜价迎来修复之路，但是可以看到沪铜在4月初跳空缺口处 明显承压，而下方支撑同样较强，期价一直在78000一线附近横盘震荡。最近沪铜为何进退两难？后续 期价有可能打破震荡局面吗？ 关税缓冲期不确定性仍存 最近美国与各国谈判进行中，特别是在中美90天对等关税下调到10%后，市场一度交易关税局势缓和逻 辑，不过部分谈判推进较为缓慢，最近特朗普态度变化，再次提议加征欧盟关税，市场也在担心关税缓 冲期过后贸易摩擦再起的可能性，短期关税缓和的利好已经基本消化，难以对市场情绪构成更多支撑。 另外，为了转移国内债务规模庞大等矛盾，美国对其他国家关税很难恢复至今年以前水平，经济增长前 景担忧无法轻易解除。从最近公布的美国经济数据来看，目前关税扰动所带来的冲击有限，美国4月通 胀表现低于预期，零售销售月率超预期上升0.1%，5月Markit制造业和服务业PMI也均超预期。不过美 国高额债务问题仍然存在，6月还有大量美债集中到期，最近特朗普的减税法案在众议院以微弱优势通 过，市场继续担心美国债台高筑，关 ...