铜月报 铜价可能以高位震荡趋势运行 内容提要 美联储上半年降息概率不高 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员：刘江 美联储古尔斯比表示，利率可以下调，但不想在通胀缓解之前就 提前大幅降息；如果通胀回落，利率今年可以降更多；就业市场稳定， 经济一直稳健。 据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储到3月降息25个基点 的概率为4%，维持利率不变的概率为96.0%。美联储到4月累计降息25 个基点的概率17.3%，维持利率不变的概率为82.1%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为0.6%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为43%。 精废铜价差持续维持高位 中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费（TC）、精炼费（RC）小幅上升，但维持低 位。中国精炼铜产量快速增长，同比增速上升。精废铜价差持续维持 高位。铜材产量同比下降。 沪铜库存大幅累库 沪铜库存大幅累库，LME铜库存持续增长，COMEX铜继续累库。综 合来看，铜价可能以高位震荡行情为主。套利机会有限。期权合约建 议观望为主。 风险提示：美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铜需求变 化超预期。 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several A-share listed companies are increasing their investments in copper mining due to rising copper prices, leading to significant positive forecasts for 2025 and potential increases in copper production for 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - Zijin Mining announced the completion of the second phase of its Julong Copper Mine, increasing its production capacity from 15,000 tons per day to 35,000 tons per day, with annual copper production expected to rise from 190,000 tons in 2025 to approximately 300,000-350,000 tons [1]. - Western Mining reported a significant increase in copper resources at its Yulong Copper Mine, with an additional 131.42 thousand tons of copper metal resources confirmed, marking a breakthrough in geological exploration [2]. - Pengxin Resources expects a net profit of 210 million to 290 million yuan for 2025, driven by increased production and sales prices of gold, copper, and sulfuric acid [3]. - Zijin Mining anticipates a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, with production increases in gold, copper, and silver [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The copper price is expected to experience high volatility in 2025, with an average annual price reaching a historical high of 81,000 yuan per ton, an 8% increase from the previous year [4]. - The non-ferrous metal industry is projected to see a 4.9% increase in fixed asset investment in 2025, with a notable 41% increase in the mining sector [4]. - For 2026, the production of refined copper is expected to grow by around 5%, with overall revenue in the industry anticipated to increase by 5% as well [5].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Weak Industry and Inventory Accumulation, Copper Prices Oscillating at High Levels [1] Report Date - January 26, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper oscillated at high levels. Supported by factors such as China's GDP growth, loose monetary policy, increased power grid investment, overseas geopolitical risks, a weakening US dollar, and rising precious metals, copper prices were affected by tight supply at the mine end and weak downstream demand due to high prices, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation. The market is in a game between macro - level positives and weak reality, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels with limited upward potential. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [5][10] Summary by Directory 1. Main View and Strategy 1.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper oscillated at high levels. As of January 23, it closed at 101,340 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025, and the monetary policy in 2026 remains loose. The "14th Five - Year Plan" power grid investment will increase by 40%. Overseas geopolitical risks are rising rapidly, the US dollar is continuously weakening, and precious metals are strengthening. At the fundamental level, the shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remains at a historical low. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike due to failed negotiations. US President Trump does not consider imposing additional tariffs on key minerals including copper for the time being, and the LME - COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed. High copper prices have put pressure on downstream operations in China, domestic inventory has been continuously accumulating, and copper prices have oscillated at high levels [5] 1.2 Supply Side - The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the processing fee has remained at a historical low. As of January 23, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.86%. As of January 23, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 49.8 US dollars/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to decline. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual total production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. In December, the supply of scrap - produced anode copper increased, and the sulfuric acid price was strong, so smelters had little willingness to actively reduce production. Affected by smelter maintenance and the statistical cycle in January, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month [8] 1.3 Demand Side - High copper prices have put pressure on downstream operations, but the copper foil industry's operating rate has increased against the trend. As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders have recovered, and the approaching Spring Festival has led enterprises to accelerate production and stock up, driving the operating rate up. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper rods, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. High copper prices have seriously weakened the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high - priced raw materials, resulting in a significant shrinkage in order volume and a decline in the operating rate of copper strip enterprises. Most brass rod production enterprises have increased production to meet their annual output value targets, driving the industry's operating rate up. Large enterprises have stable orders and increased production at the end of the year to prepare for the New Year's Day holiday, leading to an increase in the operating rate. The copper foil industry's operating rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry remains highly prosperous. The traditional end - of - year production rush in the downstream has supported the demand at a high level [9] 1.4 Inventory - Domestic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating, and COMEX copper inventory has continued to pile up. As of January 23, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 22.59 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.82%. As of January 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 2.9% compared with January 15, and the total inventory increased by 203,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 23, the LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19.59%. The COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [9] 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - At the macro - level, China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025, the monetary policy in 2026 remains loose, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" power grid investment will increase by 40%. Overseas geopolitical risks are rising rapidly, the US dollar is continuously weakening, and precious metals are strengthening. At the fundamental level, the processing fee at the mine end continues to decline, and smelting losses are expanding. US President Trump said that he does not consider imposing additional tariffs on key minerals including copper for the time being, and the LME - COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed. The traditional off - season and high copper prices have suppressed consumption, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Social inventory has increased to 335,200 tons and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are generally at a discount, and trading is light. The market is in a game between macro - level positives and weak reality. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate at high levels with limited upward potential. It is necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, and the GDP in the fourth quarter increased by 4.5%. The GDP in 2025 exceeded 140 trillion yuan, achieving the annual growth target. In December 2025, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing showed good growth momentum. In 2025, China's fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with mining investment increasing by 2.5% and manufacturing investment increasing by 0.6%. China's LPR in January remained unchanged for the eighth consecutive month, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The central bank deputy governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [15][19][21] 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - In 2025, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in Congo achieved its production target. Chile has lowered its copper production forecast for the next few years, and the peak production will be postponed for several years. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance for 2026 and 2027. In December 2025, China's scrap copper imports increased by 14.83% month - on - month. In 2025, China's cumulative refined copper production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile has been shut down due to a strike, tightening the global copper supply. Freeport - McMoRan reported its 2025 production and consumption data and its 2026 production forecast. The ICSG and WBMS data show that the global refined copper market had a supply surplus in November 2025. Freeport - McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine restart is progressing as planned [22][24] 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - The spot premium of Shanghai copper has continued to decline, and market trading has remained light. The decline in copper prices during the week has improved trading volume, and demand has recovered slightly. It is expected that the Shanghai copper spot market will maintain a pattern of "high discount, weak trading" next week. The LME copper 0 - 3 has changed from a large premium to a discount. The premium of the copper spot contract over the three - month contract once exceeded 100 US dollars per ton, indicating strong near - term delivery demand and a shortage of deliverable spot inventory. US President Trump's statement has narrowed the LME - COMEX spread [29] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of January 23, the Shanghai copper futures position was 231,437 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2.44%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 210,695.4 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 26.52%. As of January 16, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,618.35 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.54%. As of January 20, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 62,806 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [31] 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of copper concentrates continues due to mine - end disturbances, and the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 23, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.86%. As of January 23, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 49.8 US dollars/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to decline. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual total production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Affected by smelter maintenance and the statistical cycle in January, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month [40] 4.2 Downstream Operating Rate - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.51 percentage points. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper rods, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. High copper prices have affected the operating rates of different downstream industries, but the copper foil industry has maintained a high and rising operating rate [44] 4.3 Inventory - As of January 23, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 22.59 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.82%. As of January 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 2.9% compared with January 15, and the total inventory increased by 203,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 23, the LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19.59%. The COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [49]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The center of Shanghai copper has moved slightly upward. After the former deputy governor of the Bank of Japan stated that premature interest rate hikes and excessive tightening should be avoided, market sentiment was greatly alleviated, and risk assets rose across the board. Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded again near the bull - bear line. The short - term market focus is on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision this Friday. Bullish signals will have an obvious impact on market sentiment, while bearish signals will have limited impact on the market under the strong fundamentals. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper's center moved slightly upward. The spot price of Shanghai copper rose 445 to 92,145, the discount widened 25 to 150, and the spot loss expanded to over a thousand yuan, mainly due to the significant decline in the exchange ratio [10] Group 5: Industry News - The Canadian government has approved the $53 - billion all - stock merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources. The new company "Anglo Teck" will relocate its headquarters to Vancouver, Canada, and plans to invest at least C$45 billion (about $32 billion) in Canada within 5 years and C$10 billion (about $7.3 billion) within 15 years. It will also invest at least C$100 million (about $73 million) in relevant research and training. The transaction is expected to take up to 18 months for global regulatory approval, and the new company's copper production will account for nearly 5% of the global market share [7] - Japan's JX Metals announced on December 16 that its subsidiary, Pan Pacific Copper (PPC), has sold all its equity in the undeveloped Quechua copper project in Peru to Glencore. The Quechua copper project is a green - field project with an estimated investment of about $1.29 billion and potential mineral resources of about 260 million tons [7][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, driven by cost support on the supply side and improved macro - sentiment, but the weak demand restricts the increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 86,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [3][57] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE price of the main contract rose slightly to 86,620 yuan/ton on November 26, up 70 yuan from the previous day. The basis of premium copper and flat - water copper increased slightly, while the LME(0 - 3) basis weakened to 9.52 US dollars/ton [1][56] - **Position and Trading Volume**: Market procurement sentiment slightly increased on November 26, trading volume slightly expanded, and there was no significant change in position data [1][57] Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Chile's national copper company significantly raised the long - term contract price for 2026 to 350 US dollars/ton on November 26, reflecting rising supply costs. The Tibet Yulong Copper Project was put into operation on November 22, increasing the annual processing capacity of copper oxide ore to 1 million tons. The Australian Eva Copper Project was approved and is expected to be put into production in 2028, increasing future supply [2][57] - **Demand Side**: Downstream consumption in North China was weak on November 26. Limited funds at the end of the month led to poor demand. Although the overall procurement sentiment slightly increased, downstream price - pressing psychology was obvious [2][57] - **Inventory Side**: LME inventory continued to decline to 39,825 tons on November 26, a decrease of about 9.1% compared to November 20. SHFE inventory slightly increased to 156,575 tons, and COMEX inventory increased [2][57] Price Trend Judgment - **Future Trend**: It is expected that the copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks [3][57] - **Driving Reasons**: On the supply side, the rising long - term contract price and future project commissioning imply rising costs and increased supply; on the demand side, weak downstream consumption and price - pressing psychology limit demand recovery; macro - sentiment is supported by the Fed's dovish remarks on November 26, which weakened the US dollar and supported risk assets including copper prices [58][59][60]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is experiencing a tug-of-war between strong supply constraints and weak consumption realities, leading to expectations of high-level fluctuations in copper prices [1][9]. Group 2 - The global copper mining industry is entering a phase of chronic shortages, with Chile's copper production in September at 456,663 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [2]. - The International Copper Study Group forecasts a global copper mine shortage of approximately 150,000 tons in 2025, expanding to 300,000 tons in 2026, indicating a shift towards a chronic supply-demand imbalance [2]. Group 3 - China's electrolytic copper production in October was 1.0921 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.94% but a year-on-year increase of 9.63% [3]. - In November, the planned maintenance of smelters is expected to reduce production by 48,000 tons, while the copper price environment is favoring increased operating rates for plants using scrap copper or anode copper as raw materials [3]. Group 4 - Global copper inventories have shown a total increase, with a total of 573,400 tons as of October 31, up by 41,000 tons from the end of September, but with significant geographical disparities [4]. - The COMEX warehouse holds over 40% of visible global copper inventory, while LME copper stocks have decreased to 134,600 tons after a recent depletion cycle [4]. Group 5 - Domestic copper social inventory as of November 3 was 200,100 tons, with a weekly increase of 15,600 tons, indicating a slight increase in supply despite ongoing maintenance and production cuts [6]. Group 6 - Domestic power grid investment has shifted from rapid growth to high-quality development, with fixed asset investments exceeding 420 billion yuan in the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [8]. - The operating rate of domestic copper cable enterprises was 60.8%, reflecting a decrease due to weak demand and high copper prices, with expectations of a slight recovery in the coming week [8]. Group 7 - The copper market is characterized by a conflict between tight supply expectations and weak demand, with high copper prices suppressing downstream purchasing intentions [9].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to ongoing supply tightness and high prices suppressing downstream demand, leading to a reaccumulation of social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Morning trading saw copper prices weakly running, with a slight recovery in the afternoon, closing up by 0.1% [1] - Domestic market electrolytic copper inventory reached 206,000 tons on November 3, an increase of 17,400 tons compared to October 27, and up 13,800 tons from October 30 [1] - The overall performance of downstream enterprises remains relatively weak due to high copper prices, which have limited procurement demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about copper supply have intensified due to frequent mining accidents this year and declining ore grades in old mines [1] - Last week, Glencore and Anglo American reported a decline in copper sales for the first nine months, contributing to ongoing worries about supply tightness [1] - Chile's copper production in September fell by 4.5% year-on-year to 456,663 tons, according to the Chilean National Statistics Institute [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicated that the domestic market remains slightly oversupplied, with future attention needed on whether overseas inventories will be reduced [1] - The outlook for copper prices is influenced by less optimistic expectations from US-China negotiations and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to a price retreat [1] - Despite these factors, the macroeconomic drivers have not changed, and the tight supply background is expected to maintain high price fluctuations in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The price index for recycled brass rods (Guixi) on August 21 is 52,728 CNY/ton, an increase of 65 CNY/ton, representing a 0.12% rise [1] - The current market prices for electrolytic copper are as follows: Shanghai Huatuo at 78,800 CNY/ton, Guangdong Nanshu at 78,670 CNY/ton, and Shanghai YS at 78,745 CNY/ton [2] - The closing price for the main copper futures contract on August 21 is 78,540 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.05% [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot market's Shanghai-London ratio is 8.11, with an import profit/loss of 234.81 CNY/ton, down from 354.75 CNY/ton the previous trading day [3] - As of August 21, LME copper registered warehouse receipts total 145,000 tons, with canceled receipts at 11,350 tons, an increase of 600 tons, while copper inventory remains unchanged at 156,350 tons [3] Group 3 - CICC's research report indicates that the collapse of a Chilean mine will prevent it from contributing additional output for several years, compounded by the lack of recovery at the Panama copper mine and U.S. actions against illegal mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo, tightening supply constraints [4] - The current market is experiencing a traditional off-peak consumption season, with decent performance in power grid investment orders, while real estate demand remains weak [4] - Downstream purchasing behavior is characterized by a "buy on the rise, not on the fall" mentality, leading to a mixed market sentiment in the Shanghai copper market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy remains undecided, leading to uncertainty in the copper market as the traditional peak season "Golden September and Silver October" approaches [1] Group 1 - The upcoming peak season is expected to influence copper prices, which are currently experiencing high volatility [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring whether the current price fluctuations will stabilize or break out of the existing range [1]