产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：智利国家铜业对2026年长单报价大幅上涨至350美元/吨，较2025 年提升261美元，反映冶炼成本上升；同时，西藏玉龙铜业项目投产，年处 理氧化铜矿能力提升至100万吨，阴极铜产量增至13527吨，澳大利亚Eva铜 矿项目获批，预计2028年增加供应。 需求端 ：华北地区下游消费疲软，月末资金受限导致需求不佳，下游采购 压价心理明显；电力、建筑等领域需求未现强劲复苏，采购情绪仅略微上 升。 电解铜价高位震荡，需求疲软抑制进一步上行空间 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：主力合约SHFE价格小幅上扬至86620元/吨，较前一日上 涨70元；LME价格同步走高至10832.5美元/吨。基差方面，升水铜基差小幅 走高至150元/吨，平水铜基差扩大至35元/吨，但LME(0-3)基差走弱至9.52 美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：市场采购情绪略微上升，成交量略有扩大；持仓量未显示显 著变化，库存数据间接反映市场流动性稳定。 市场小结 预计未来一到两周铜价维持高位震荡，受供给端成本支撑和宏观情绪改善 驱动，但需求端疲软抑制涨幅。驱动原因包括：供给端长单报价上涨和 ...

全球铜矿步入短缺常态化阶段 智利国家统计局数据显示，因矿山运营中断及矿石品位下降，9月铜产量为456663吨，环比回升7.79%，但同比仍下 降4.5%。受8月Codelco最大矿场坍塌事故影响，尽管产量有所恢复，但仍低于去年同期。秘鲁能矿部数据显示，8月 铜产量同比减少1.6%，至24.27万吨。国际铜研究组织预计，2025年全球铜矿短缺约15万吨，2026年缺口将扩大至30 万吨，全球铜矿供需格局步入短缺常态化的阶段。 2025年，中国进口铜精矿现货加工费（TC）长期深陷-40美元／干吨以下的负值区间。相关数据显示，10月31日，进 口铜精矿指数报-42.15美元／干吨，同比大幅下滑53.24美元／干吨。尽管2026年铜精矿长单加工费谈判仍在胶着 中，但市场普遍预期最终结果将显著低于2025年21.25美元／干吨和2.125美分／磅的基准价，并可能指向零水平，个 别谈判存在出现负值的可能。 相关数据显示，10月中国电解铜产量为109.21万吨，环比下降2.94万吨，降幅2.62%，同比增长9.63%。产量环比下降 主要受集中检修压制供给、原料供应区域分化的影响。11月，计划检修的冶炼厂减少至5家，涉及粗炼 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to ongoing supply tightness and high prices suppressing downstream demand, leading to a reaccumulation of social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Morning trading saw copper prices weakly running, with a slight recovery in the afternoon, closing up by 0.1% [1] - Domestic market electrolytic copper inventory reached 206,000 tons on November 3, an increase of 17,400 tons compared to October 27, and up 13,800 tons from October 30 [1] - The overall performance of downstream enterprises remains relatively weak due to high copper prices, which have limited procurement demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about copper supply have intensified due to frequent mining accidents this year and declining ore grades in old mines [1] - Last week, Glencore and Anglo American reported a decline in copper sales for the first nine months, contributing to ongoing worries about supply tightness [1] - Chile's copper production in September fell by 4.5% year-on-year to 456,663 tons, according to the Chilean National Statistics Institute [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicated that the domestic market remains slightly oversupplied, with future attention needed on whether overseas inventories will be reduced [1] - The outlook for copper prices is influenced by less optimistic expectations from US-China negotiations and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to a price retreat [1] - Despite these factors, the macroeconomic drivers have not changed, and the tight supply background is expected to maintain high price fluctuations in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The price index for recycled brass rods (Guixi) on August 21 is 52,728 CNY/ton, an increase of 65 CNY/ton, representing a 0.12% rise [1] - The current market prices for electrolytic copper are as follows: Shanghai Huatuo at 78,800 CNY/ton, Guangdong Nanshu at 78,670 CNY/ton, and Shanghai YS at 78,745 CNY/ton [2] - The closing price for the main copper futures contract on August 21 is 78,540 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.05% [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot market's Shanghai-London ratio is 8.11, with an import profit/loss of 234.81 CNY/ton, down from 354.75 CNY/ton the previous trading day [3] - As of August 21, LME copper registered warehouse receipts total 145,000 tons, with canceled receipts at 11,350 tons, an increase of 600 tons, while copper inventory remains unchanged at 156,350 tons [3] Group 3 - CICC's research report indicates that the collapse of a Chilean mine will prevent it from contributing additional output for several years, compounded by the lack of recovery at the Panama copper mine and U.S. actions against illegal mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo, tightening supply constraints [4] - The current market is experiencing a traditional off-peak consumption season, with decent performance in power grid investment orders, while real estate demand remains weak [4] - Downstream purchasing behavior is characterized by a "buy on the rise, not on the fall" mentality, leading to a mixed market sentiment in the Shanghai copper market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy remains undecided, leading to uncertainty in the copper market as the traditional peak season "Golden September and Silver October" approaches [1] Group 1 - The upcoming peak season is expected to influence copper prices, which are currently experiencing high volatility [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring whether the current price fluctuations will stabilize or break out of the existing range [1]