Core Viewpoint - The sales surge of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the U.S. market is expected to rapidly decline after the expiration of government subsidies [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In August, U.S. new car sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with NEVs significantly contributing to this growth [1]. - NEVs accounted for 11% of total sales in August, up from 8% in previous months [1]. Group 2: Impact of Subsidy Expiration - The U.S. government’s electric vehicle subsidies, which provide up to $7,500 for new cars and $4,000 for used cars, will end on September 30 [1][2]. - Major automakers are taking preemptive measures in response to the anticipated decline in NEV sales, including layoffs and production cuts [2]. Group 3: Company Responses - General Motors plans to halve the production of electric vehicles at its Spring Hill, Tennessee plant starting December and will halt production for two weeks in October and November [2][3]. - Volkswagen is also reducing production of its electric SUV ID.4 in Tennessee and temporarily laying off 160 employees to align production with market demand [3]. - Rivian has laid off over 200 employees and plans to introduce a lower-priced SUV model next year to counter policy risks and boost sales [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by Trump also ends penalties for automakers that fail to meet fuel economy standards, which could significantly impact revenue for companies like Tesla and Rivian that rely on carbon credit sales [3]. - The automotive industry has faced turmoil over the past year, with tariffs reducing profits by over $12 billion and policy changes further weakening the outlook for electric vehicles [4].

以下文章来源于前瞻经济学人 ，作者产业观察组 前瞻经济学人 . 关注中国城市发展战略、把握全球新兴产业趋势！这是省长书记爱看的智库号之一。 作者：产业观察组 来源：前瞻经济学人（ID： gh_0323d102f291 ） 新规生效，最猛烈的冲击来了！ 因为，尽管燃油车做不到百公里油耗3.5L，但纯电动车完全可以。参照欧盟27国的平均电网排放 因子480.8 gCO₂/kWh（一度电排放480.8克二氧化碳），以特斯拉Model 3平均每公里耗电约 0.13kWh计算，碳排放仅62克。 那么多卖一些电动车，或者少卖一些燃油车，平均下来或许就能完成任务。 然而，这种看似无懈 可击的逻辑，当地市场却根本不买账。 2024年，欧盟市场乘用车新车总销量为1060万辆，纯电动车的占比仅有13.6%，整个市场上还 是燃油车（33.3%）和HEV混动车（30.9%）占主导。 一些投资机构预计，如果要满足二氧化碳排放量每公里93.6克的要求，欧盟汽车市场上的电动车 销售比例要提升至25%。 但现实情况却是，欧盟纯电动汽车销售率不仅停滞不前，2024年同比还下滑1%，首次出现负增 长。 不卖电动车，罚款1330亿 2025年1月 ...