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大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251114
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 03:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply outstripping demand due to capacity mismatches, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [13]. - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 86,540 - 89,140 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, with the former rising 0.70% to 105,719 tons and the latter 3.51% to 19,553 tons [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral; Basis: On November 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,350 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 3,490 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures, which is bearish; Inventory: The overall inventory decreased by 2.80% to 120,472 tons, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 7.96% to 28,270 tons and the downstream inventory decreasing by 6.22% to 48,772 tons, which is neutral [9]. - Market Outlook: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production reduction plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports; bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline and weak acceptance willingness at the power battery end [11][12]. 3.2 Market Overview - The prices of most lithium - related products increased. For example, the price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 1.73% to 1,001 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.26% to 84,350 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore increased, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 10.61% to 571,500 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased significantly [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, with the monthly production reaching 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase. The weekly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends [17]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased to 29,220 tons, a 6.37% increase. The monthly net export volume also increased by 13.60% to 5,053.18 tons [17]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium Battery: The monthly production, shipment, and installation volume of lithium batteries increased. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased by 21.60% to 76,000 GWh, and the installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries also increased [17]. - Ternary Precursor: The monthly production of ternary precursors increased, and the price showed different trends. The 523 - type and 622 - type products had price increases [59]. - Ternary Material: The price of ternary materials increased, and the weekly and monthly production and inventory showed different trends [65]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly production and export volume also increased [69]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, with the production volume reaching 1,772,000 vehicles, a 9.59% increase, and the sales volume reaching 1.604 million vehicles, a 14.98% increase [17]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Lithium Carbonate: The overall inventory decreased, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory also decreasing [9]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide showed different trends for different sources [50]. - Ternary Precursor: The monthly inventory of ternary precursors showed different trends [59]. - Ternary Material: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [67]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [74].
碳酸锂:基本面仍偏弱,上方空间或有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 02:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain weak, and the upside potential may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2507 and 2509 contracts were 65,200 and 66,280 respectively. The trading volumes of the 2507 and 2509 contracts were 377,525 and 44,885 respectively. The open interests of the 2507 and 2509 contracts were 276,956 and 62,539 respectively. The warehouse receipt volume was 36,716 [2]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2507 was -500, spot - 2509 was -1,580, 2507 - 2509 was -1,080, electric carbon - industrial carbon was 1,650, and spot - CIF was 3,429 [2]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 713, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,360, battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,700, and battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 8,500 [2]. - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized) was 71,085, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) was 8,550, and various types of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also had corresponding prices [2]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,959 yuan/ton, up 197 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [3]. - On May 13, Yahua Group announced that its subsidiary terminated the original lithium concentrate purchase agreement with Core's subsidiary. Core's Finniss lithium mine project suspended operations and could not supply lithium concentrate [4]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, with a range of [-2, 2] indicating different levels of bullishness or bearishness [4].