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大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250715
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch in the lithium carbonate market leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main logic is the capacity mismatch. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. The positive factors include manufacturers' plans for production suspension and reduction, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. The negative factors are the continuous high - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.80%, higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The 6% spodumene CIF price has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average. The supply surplus situation has changed, and the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,071 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 63,502 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.83%, with a production profit of 264 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 69,292 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of 7,063 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has strong production motivation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory is 140,793 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory is 58,598 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%, the downstream inventory is 40,765 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%, and other inventories are 41,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.34% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65,760 - 67,200. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The net short position of the main contract is increasing, showing a bearish trend. The supply surplus situation is expected to ease, with a slight decrease in supply and an increase in demand [8]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium carbonate and related products have shown different degrees of changes. For example, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 64,650 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the - 1,830 yuan/ton basis of the 09 contract on July 14 [8][14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate is 62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The daily production cost of spodumene is 63,502 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.83%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 is 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34% [8][17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate is 285,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.24%. The monthly production of ternary materials is 68,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.30%. The monthly power battery loading volume is 58,200 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.93% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of spodumene and lithium mica has shown certain fluctuations. The production of domestic lithium mines from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica) has different trends over time [24]. - **Import and Self - sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also shown different trends in different periods [24]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium mines has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [27]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time [30]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed, especially the import volume from Chile has decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [35]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticizing, smelting) have changed over time [38]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed, and the export volume is relatively large [38][41]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost of Different Raw Materials**: The production costs of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) have changed over time, and the profit situations are also different [44][47]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profits of different processes such as lithium carbonate import, purification, and lithium hydroxide processing have changed over time [44][47][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) has changed over time [52]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) has changed over time [52]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time, and the prices of different types of lithium batteries have also shown different trends [56][59]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost and price of lithium battery cells have changed over time [56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of ternary precursors of different series have changed over time [62]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of ternary materials of different series have changed over time [68]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed over time [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [73][76]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed over time, and the sales penetration rate has also shown different trends [81][82]. - **Retail - wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of new energy vehicles and the inventory index of dealers have changed over time [85].
碳酸锂:基本面承压叠加仓单矛盾,高波动或延续
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 06:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the lithium carbonate market may continue to experience high volatility due to pressure on fundamentals and contradictions in warehouse receipts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts Data**: - For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 63,240, with a change of 1,660 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 29,486, a decrease of 1,804 from T - 1, and the open interest was 25,365, down 10,916 from T - 1 [1]. - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 63,300, up 1,800 from T - 1. The trading volume was 615,010, an increase of 228,028 from T - 1, and the open interest was 341,448, a decrease of 3,768 from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 21,998, a decrease of 592 from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: - The basis of spot - 2507 was - 2,090, and spot - 2509 was - 2,150 [1]. - The basis of 2507 - 2509 was - 60 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was priced at 629, up 4 from T - 1 [1]. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 61,150, up 550 from T - 1 [1]. - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 59,550, up 550 from T - 1 [1]. - Other related lithium - salt products also showed various price changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,279 yuan/ton, up 534 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,150 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,550 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton [2]. - Zhongkuang Resources announced that its subsidiary Zhongkuang Lithium Industry plans to upgrade its 25,000 - ton - per - annum lithium salt production line and invest in a 30,000 - ton - per - annum high - purity lithium salt technical renovation project with a total investment of 120.74 million yuan. After the project is completed, the company will have a total annual production capacity of 71,000 tons of battery - grade lithium salts [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].
供需预期转淡,锂价承压下行
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 11:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June, domestic lithium salt production resumed growth, raw material consumption increased, lithium ore inventory decreased, and there was a strong willingness to support prices. However, subsequent arrivals of lithium ore may lead to a spiral decline in lithium salt prices. In July, smelters resumed production, and production reached a new high, further increasing supply pressure [5]. - Consumption side: Subsidies for trade - ins are expected to continue. The energy storage market is currently in a state of "rush to export", but the month - on - month increase is limited. In July, the demand off - season is expected to be obvious, with battery and cathode factories showing signs of destocking and purchasing remaining cautious [5]. - Cost side: Both mines and salt factories are reducing costs, the cost curve is constantly moving down, and the psychological support in the market is also decreasing [5]. - Price outlook: SMM's weekly inventory and production increased month - on - month, smelters accumulated inventory, and downstream destocked. Downstream orders are expected to decline in the off - season, and downstream will maintain a destocking strategy with a high proportion of customer - supplied materials. Spot purchases will remain for just - in - time needs. As some smelters still have profits at current prices and supply resumes growth, inventory is expected to increase rapidly in July, and lithium carbonate prices will be under downward pressure [5]. - Strategy recommendations: For single - side trading, expect lithium carbonate prices to decline; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Summary by Directory Demand Analysis 1.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Domestic Sales Momentum - From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44% of the total vehicle sales. From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 402,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 57%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 4.76 million, a year - on - year increase of 35% [12]. - In June, the growth of new energy vehicles slowed down. On one hand, some cities exhausted subsidies for trade - ins, and there was a time lag in issuing new subsidies. On the other hand, the penetration rate exceeded 50%, limiting the growth space. The Passenger Car Association predicts that the annual wholesale volume of new energy passenger cars will be 15.73 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%, with a penetration rate of 56% [12]. - The peak - season characteristics of power cell production are not obvious. From January to May, the production is expected to increase by 54% year - on - year to 458.6 GWh, and the month - on - month increase in May was only about 2% [12]. 1.1.2 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to April 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 33.9% year - on - year to 5.97 million, compared with a 26.7% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the United States, the cumulative sales increased by 6.7% year - on - year to 523,000, compared with a 10.1% increase in the same period last year. In Europe, the cumulative sales increased by 24.6% year - on - year to 1.118 million, compared with an 11.3% increase in the same period last year. China's new energy vehicle exports increased by 52% year - on - year to 639,000, compared with a 21% increase in the same period last year [18]. - The EU's carbon emissions review has been postponed for two years, and the United States plans to cancel IRA subsidies [18]. 1.2 Energy Storage Market - "Rush to Export" Maintains Orders but with Limited Increment - In the northwestern region of China, there is an oversupply of thermal power, the peak - valley electricity price difference has decreased significantly compared with 2023, the demand for wind, solar power, and energy storage has declined, and electricity prices are expected to fall [23]. - The marginal effect of the second round of "rush to export" is diminishing, and the month - on - month increase is relatively limited. The US plan to cancel IRA subsidies has a significant impact on local energy storage project construction [23]. - SMM expects the cumulative production of Chinese energy storage cells from January to May to be 166.7 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 67%, compared with a 42% increase in the same period last year [23]. 1.3 Battery and Cathode Production Scheduled in June Remained Flat Month - on - Month - SMM's production schedule for June: Lithium iron phosphate production is expected to increase by 2% month - on - month, while ternary cathode material production is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month [26]. - From January to May, the cumulative production of power and energy storage cells increased by 57% year - on - year to 625.33 GWh [26]. - The spot market has difficulty in shipping. Due to smelter production cuts and reduced shipments, the basis is strong, but the downstream customer - supplied proportion is high, the receiving capacity is limited, and trading is light [26]. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production Increased - This week's rebound in lithium carbonate prices stimulated the continuous growth of weekly production. As smelters gradually resumed production in June, monthly production is expected to reach a new high. SMM expects June's lithium carbonate production to increase by 9% month - on - month to 78,800 tons [30]. - In May, the supply of lithium ore gradually became abundant, and lithium ore prices declined. It is expected that arrivals in June will continue to increase, and lithium ore prices still have room to fall [30]. - Due to the increase in recovery rate and the decrease in processing fees, the cost of converting the same ore price into lithium salt is lower than the same period last year [30]. 2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not further elaborated on specific data trends in the given content, only the charts of production by different raw materials (salt lake, lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling) are provided [32] 2.3 Supply Pressure of Lithium Carbonate Still Existed in June and Increased Further in July - In May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. From January to May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [42]. - Currently, Chile exports lithium carbonate and lithium sulfate to China, which diverts part of the lithium carbonate import volume. Although the apparent import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased, the supply of lithium elements still exerts significant pressure [42]. 2.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Dynamics Turned to Surplus - Not further elaborated on specific surplus data and analysis in the given content, only the chart of lithium carbonate supply - demand balance is provided [44] 2.5 Lithium Carbonate Inventory Continued to Accumulate - Lithium carbonate inventory continued to accumulate this week. As demand enters the off - season, downstream purchases cautiously and actively destocks. Spot demand remains low, and the phenomenon of "buying on dips" persists [48]. - Since the current term structure does not provide delivery profits, spot - futures traders only choose to deliver when they cannot sell their spot goods, so the warehouse receipts may remain at a low level [48]. - Spot feedback indicates that inventory at all links in the industrial chain is not low, and it is difficult for upstream to sell goods. Inventory is expected to continue to increase, presenting an opportunity for reverse arbitrage [48].
碳酸锂:宏观预期反复,基本面仍偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - expectations of lithium carbonate are fluctuating, and the fundamentals remain weak. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: - For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 61,680, with a change of 920 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 236,197, up 31,417 from T - 1; the open interest was 178,235, down 16,496 from T - 1. - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 61,740, up 760 from T - 1; the trading volume was 168,732, up 56,115 from T - 1; the open interest was 216,554, up 21,790 from T - 1 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 32,837 hands, down 110 from T - 1 [1] - **Basis**: - The basis of spot - 2507 was - 1,180, down 770 from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2509 was - 1,240, down 610 from T - 1; the basis of 2507 - 2509 was - 60, up 160 from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Materials**: - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 630, up 2 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,210, up 25 from T - 1 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500, up 150 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,900, up 150 from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 66,050, down 300 from T - 1 [1] - **Related Products**: - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 30,445, up 40 from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy - storage type) was 28,950, up 30 from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 26,650, up 40 from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,704 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1] - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to promote more local processing [1][3] - The adsorption lithium extraction device of the 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integrated project in the Qarhan production area of China Salt Lake Industry Group Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Minmetals Corporation, completed the intermediate handover and entered the trial - production stage [1][3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]
天华新能(300390) - 300390天华新能投资者关系管理信息20250606
2025-06-06 01:47
Group 1: Lithium Production Capacity - The company has established three major production bases in Sichuan and Jiangxi, with a total lithium hydroxide production capacity of 16.5 thousand tons per year: 7.5 thousand tons in Yibin, 6 thousand tons in Meishan, and 3 thousand tons in Yichun [1][2] - A subsidiary has implemented a flexible transformation of a production line to achieve an annual capacity of 30 thousand tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, which can be converted to 26.5 thousand tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate based on market demand [2] Group 2: Resource Management and Cost Control - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and cost control in response to declining lithium salt prices by expanding quality customer relationships and locking in fixed prices for long-term contracts [2] - The strategy includes increasing the supply rate of self-owned mines to reduce raw material costs and implementing a three-tier lean improvement mechanism to enhance overall operational efficiency [2] Group 3: Mining Licenses and Future Plans - The company’s subsidiary, Yichun Shengyuan, has obtained a mining license for a lithium-containing ceramic soil mine in Jiangxi, with plans to advance resource extraction according to company strategy [2] - Future plans involve further advancing lithium mining projects and strengthening the layout of self-owned lithium resources in regions like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2] Group 4: Research and Development Initiatives - The company is actively engaged in the development of solid-state battery technologies and has formed partnerships with universities and research institutes for the research of sulfide solid electrolytes and low-cost ultra-pure lithium sulfide [3][4] - Research on spinel nickel manganese lithium materials is progressing, with the material being recognized for its cost-effectiveness and performance, making it a viable option for next-generation high-energy batteries [3][4] Group 5: Market Expansion Strategies - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with leading automotive manufacturers and battery producers, ensuring a solid customer base and sales channels [4] - Efforts are being made to continuously expand new business areas and market spaces to achieve growth in incremental business revenue and enhance product competitiveness [4]
碳酸锂:基本面仍偏弱,上方空间或有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 02:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain weak, and the upside potential may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2507 and 2509 contracts were 65,200 and 66,280 respectively. The trading volumes of the 2507 and 2509 contracts were 377,525 and 44,885 respectively. The open interests of the 2507 and 2509 contracts were 276,956 and 62,539 respectively. The warehouse receipt volume was 36,716 [2]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2507 was -500, spot - 2509 was -1,580, 2507 - 2509 was -1,080, electric carbon - industrial carbon was 1,650, and spot - CIF was 3,429 [2]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 713, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,360, battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,700, and battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 8,500 [2]. - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized) was 71,085, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) was 8,550, and various types of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also had corresponding prices [2]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,959 yuan/ton, up 197 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [3]. - On May 13, Yahua Group announced that its subsidiary terminated the original lithium concentrate purchase agreement with Core's subsidiary. Core's Finniss lithium mine project suspended operations and could not supply lithium concentrate [4]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, with a range of [-2, 2] indicating different levels of bullishness or bearishness [4].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250513
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 14:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply exceeding demand. The overall trend of lithium carbonate prices is difficult to reverse the downward situation due to capacity mismatch. The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,420 - 64,660 [8][9][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Supply Side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,349 tons, a 26.69% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In April 2025, the production was 73,810 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 75,500 tons, a 2.29% increase. The import volume in April was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 tons, a 20% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 86,988 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 15,556 tons, an 11.59% week - on - week increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 68,459 yuan/ton, a 0.59% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 4,750 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite is 69,610 yuan/ton, a 0.33% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,566 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Base Spread**: On May 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,600 yuan/ton, and the base spread of the 07 contract was 560 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 54,852 tons, a 7.48% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 42,156 tons, a 6.67% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 34,561 tons, a 3.54% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 131,569 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a bearish situation [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish situation [9]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Base Spread**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. The base spreads of some products showed significant changes, such as a - 74.89% decrease in the base spread of the 07 contract [15]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of some products showed fluctuations. For example, the weekly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.09%, and the monthly operating rate increased by 1.82%. The production costs and profits of lithium iron ore and lithium iron phosphate also changed [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production and sales volume of some products increased. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.13%, and the monthly battery loading volume increased by 62.18% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore showed a downward trend. The production and import volume of lithium ore in different periods showed different changes. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also fluctuated. The weekly inventory of lithium ore at ports and traders showed a certain trend [21][22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly operating rate, production, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also changed in different months [27][28][33]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different periods [35][36][39]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and various recycling materials for producing lithium carbonate showed different trends. The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of lithium hydroxide carbonization to lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium carbonate causticization to lithium hydroxide also changed [41][42][45]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide at different stages (smelter, downstream, other) showed different trends in weekly and monthly data [50]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries showed different trends in different periods. The cost of battery cells also changed [53][54][56]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different periods [58][59][62]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends in different periods [64][65][67]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, export volume, and inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends in different periods [69][70][72]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales volume, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different periods [76][77][78].