1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch with strong supply and weak demand in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change, mainly due to capacity mismatch [8][9][13]. - The cost of externally - purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica shows different trends, with production at a loss; the cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to oscillate in the range of 71,640 - 74,120 [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, production was 85,240 physical tons, and next - month's production is predicted to be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and next - month's import is predicted to be 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a 0.81% week - on - week increase; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost: The daily - based price of 6% concentrate CIF increased, but it is lower than the historical average [9]. - Expectations: The cost of externally - purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,430 yuan/ton, a 0.16% daily increase, with a production loss of 3,049 yuan/ton; the cost of externally - purchased lithium mica is 77,345 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a production loss of 6,951 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Fundamentals: Neutral. The basis on September 18 was 570 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 on the disk is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract futures closed below the MA20. The net position of the main traders is short, with a reduction in short positions [10]. -利多: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. -利空: The supply at the ore and salt - lake ends remains high, with limited decline; the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed a downward trend, with declines ranging from 0.94% to 1.46% [16]. - Basis: Most contracts showed an increase, with increases ranging from 91.74% to 240.00% [16]. - Registered warrants: 39,354 lots, a 0.31% increase [16]. - Upstream prices: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.12%, while other prices remained mostly unchanged [16]. - Positive electrode materials and lithium battery prices: Most prices showed a slight increase, with increases ranging from 0.13% to 0.37% [16]. 3.2.2 Supply - side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica showed different trends, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 34.73%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 21.77%, with a 27.58% decrease in imports from Chile [19]. - Lithium carbonate: The monthly production was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase. The monthly net import volume decreased by 21.94%. The supply - demand balance was - 2,090 tons [19]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease. The monthly net export volume decreased by 73.89% [19]. 3.2.3 Demand - side Data - Lithium battery: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% [19]. - Ternary precursor: The monthly production was 78,440 tons, a 6.99% increase. The supply - demand balance was - 4,154 tons [19]. - Ternary material: The monthly production was 73,440 tons, a 9.55% increase [19]. - Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,440 tons, a 8.55% increase [19]. - New energy vehicle: The production was 1,391,000 vehicles, a 11.91% increase, and the sales volume was 1.262 million vehicles, a 5.04% decrease [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为19963吨，环比增长2.80%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为95442吨，环比增加0.72%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为17529 吨，环比减少0.65%。 供给端，2025年8月碳酸锂产量为85240实物吨，预测下月产量为86730实物吨，环比增加1.75%,2025年8月 碳酸锂进口量为17000实物吨，预测下月进口量为19500实物吨，环比增加14.71%。需求端，预计下月需求 有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，需求 持续走强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,200 - 72,240 yuan/ton. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include high - level supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][10][14][15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August 2025 was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.71% [8][10]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,756 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,644 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8][10]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 73,889 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.46%, with a production loss of 1,507 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 77,715 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.46%, with a production loss of 7,321 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production income is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Other Indicators**: - **Base Difference**: On September 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,730 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish signal [13]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is 140,092 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73%, higher than the historical average. Among them, the smelter inventory is 39,475 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.90%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 55,207 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.56%, higher than the historical average; other inventories are 45,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, higher than the historical average [13]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [13]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lepidolite concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have generally decreased. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased from 879 to 849 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.41% [18]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 2.47% to 73,889 yuan/ton, and the monthly processing cost increased by 4.49% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The production cost of lepidolite also decreased, with the daily cost at 77,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% [20]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.28% to 94,756 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased by 1.05% to 17,644 tons [20]. - **Supply - Lithium Ore**: - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations over the years. The production of domestic spodumene mines and lepidolite has different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased significantly, with the import volume from Australia increasing by 67.24% in a certain period [26]. - **Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rates of spodumene, lithium ore, and lepidolite have different trends over time [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months, with a tight supply - demand relationship in some months [28]. - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate**: - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycled materials) has different trends. The monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate have also changed over time. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [31]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased in a certain period. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [36][39]. - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide**: - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over time. The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) and the total production have different trends. The export volume of lithium hydroxide has also changed in different years [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [45]. - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and recycled materials have different trends over time. The processing cost of lithium ore and the profit of lithium carbonate import also show different situations [48][50]. - **Profit of Lithium Hydroxide Processing**: The profit and cost of processing lithium hydroxide by different methods (smelting and causticizing), the profit of converting lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, and the profit of exporting lithium hydroxide have different trends [53]. - **Inventory**: - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, and others) have different trends. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts has also changed over time [55]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter and downstream) has different trends [55]. - **Demand - Lithium Battery**: - **Battery Price and Production**: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time. The monthly production of battery cells for different purposes (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage) has also changed. The monthly output of power batteries has decreased in a certain period [59]. - **Battery Cost and Inventory**: The cost of battery cells has different trends. The inventory of lithium battery cells for different purposes (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage battery) has also changed [59][61]. - **Demand - Ternary Precursor**: - **Price and Cost**: The prices of different types of ternary precursors have changed over time. The cost and profit of ternary precursors also show different situations [64]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production of ternary precursors of different types (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) and the total production have different trends. The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has also changed [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [67]. - **Demand - Ternary Material**: - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The prices of different types of ternary materials have changed over time. The cost - profit trends of ternary materials also show different situations [70]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of ternary materials has different trends. The weekly inventory of ternary materials has also changed [70][72]. - **Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Phosphoric Acid Iron**: - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The prices of lithium iron phosphate and phosphoric acid iron have changed over time. The cost - profit trends of lithium iron phosphate also show different situations [74]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and phosphoric acid iron has different trends. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate has also changed [77][79]. - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle**: - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have different trends over time. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased [82][83]. - **Inventory and Retail - Wholesale Ratio**: The inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers, as well as the retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles, have different trends [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance due to capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main logic is that the supply of ore/salt lake remains at a high level with limited decline, while the demand from the power battery end shows insufficient willingness to take delivery. However, there are also some positive factors such as manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene [8][9][13][14]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,840 - 75,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2.04% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase compared to August. The import volume in August was 17,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 19,500 tons in September, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,756 tons, a 0.28% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,644 tons, a 1.05% decrease compared to the previous week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 39,475 tons, a 8.90% decrease compared to the previous week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 55,207 tons, a 4.56% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 45,410 tons, a 0.91% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 140,092 tons, a 0.73% decrease compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average [9]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [9]. - Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene; negative factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness to take delivery from the power battery end [12][13] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Cost: The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 75,475 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase compared to the previous day, resulting in a loss of 1,567 yuan/ton; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 78,868 yuan/ton, a 0.58% decrease compared to the previous day, resulting in a loss of 6,991 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Basis: On September 4, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,580 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11].

Summary of Tianqi Lithium's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium - **Industry**: Lithium production and supply chain Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Tianqi Lithium achieved a total revenue of **4.833 billion yuan** and a net profit attributable to shareholders of **84.41 million yuan** [2][3] - The gross profit margin was **39.73%**, with lithium mining business gross margin at **54.23%** and lithium salt business gross margin at **25.58%** [3] - Operating cash flow was **1.82 billion yuan**, and the debt-to-asset ratio stood at **31.44%** [2][3] Key Projects and R&D Progress - The **30,000-ton lithium hydroxide project** in Jiangsu was completed and entered trial operation [4] - The **Innovation Research Institute** was launched, focusing on next-generation high-performance lithium battery materials [4] - Innovations in lithium metal preparation technology and stable anode material development were highlighted [4] Global Business Expansion - The company expanded its global footprint, covering over **20 countries**, including China, Japan, and South Korea [5][6] - Strategic partnerships were formed with upstream and downstream players in the lithium battery supply chain, including collaborations with major battery manufacturers and electric vehicle companies [5][6] Resource Security Measures - Tianqi Lithium is developing an integrated supply chain for lithium mines and salt lake brine resources, achieving **100% self-sufficiency** [7] - The **Greenbushes lithium mine** has a resource equivalent of approximately **16 million tons** of lithium carbonate, with a total processing capacity of **1.62 million tons/year** [9] Sustainability Initiatives - The company is committed to ESG and sustainable development, maintaining an **AAA rating** in ESG assessments [8] - It has disclosed carbon emissions results and received a brand recognition for its battery-grade lithium carbonate [8] Inventory and Processing Strategy - As of June 30, 2025, lithium concentrate inventory was approximately **220,000 tons**, primarily of chemical grade [12][13] - The company has not engaged in external processing due to low lithium carbonate prices and is monitoring market conditions for future processing opportunities [13][14][15] Production Cost and Capacity - The **CGP3 production line** is expected to start in December 2025, with costs anticipated to be similar to previous phases [16] - The **Quidana plant** has seen a **61% increase** in production, leading to a **30% reduction** in costs [24] Future Outlook - The company expects annual shipments to remain stable at around **100,000 tons** [26] - The **Talison Phase III project** is projected to release **75% of its capacity** next year, contingent on demand from stakeholders [26] Investment and Taxation Issues - Ongoing discussions regarding tax risks related to the IGO transaction are being monitored, with no expected liabilities at this time [17][21] - The SQM cooperation agreement is still pending due to unmet preconditions, with expectations for resolution by the end of 2026 [18][19] This summary encapsulates the key points from Tianqi Lithium's conference call, highlighting financial performance, project developments, global expansion, resource security, sustainability efforts, inventory strategies, production costs, and future outlook.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch in the lithium carbonate market leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main logic is the capacity mismatch. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. The positive factors include manufacturers' plans for production suspension and reduction, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. The negative factors are the continuous high - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.80%, higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The 6% spodumene CIF price has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average. The supply surplus situation has changed, and the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,071 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 63,502 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.83%, with a production profit of 264 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 69,292 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of 7,063 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has strong production motivation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory is 140,793 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory is 58,598 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%, the downstream inventory is 40,765 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%, and other inventories are 41,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.34% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65,760 - 67,200. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The net short position of the main contract is increasing, showing a bearish trend. The supply surplus situation is expected to ease, with a slight decrease in supply and an increase in demand [8]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium carbonate and related products have shown different degrees of changes. For example, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 64,650 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the - 1,830 yuan/ton basis of the 09 contract on July 14 [8][14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate is 62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The daily production cost of spodumene is 63,502 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.83%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 is 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34% [8][17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate is 285,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.24%. The monthly production of ternary materials is 68,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.30%. The monthly power battery loading volume is 58,200 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.93% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of spodumene and lithium mica has shown certain fluctuations. The production of domestic lithium mines from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica) has different trends over time [24]. - **Import and Self - sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also shown different trends in different periods [24]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium mines has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [27]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time [30]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed, especially the import volume from Chile has decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [35]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticizing, smelting) have changed over time [38]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed, and the export volume is relatively large [38][41]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost of Different Raw Materials**: The production costs of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) have changed over time, and the profit situations are also different [44][47]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profits of different processes such as lithium carbonate import, purification, and lithium hydroxide processing have changed over time [44][47][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) has changed over time [52]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) has changed over time [52]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time, and the prices of different types of lithium batteries have also shown different trends [56][59]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost and price of lithium battery cells have changed over time [56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of ternary precursors of different series have changed over time [62]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated over different months from 2024 to 2025, with periods of surplus and shortage [65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of ternary materials of different series have changed over time [68]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed over time [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [73][76]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed over time, and the sales penetration rate has also shown different trends [81][82]. - **Retail - wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of new energy vehicles and the inventory index of dealers have changed over time [85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the lithium carbonate market may continue to experience high volatility due to pressure on fundamentals and contradictions in warehouse receipts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts Data**: - For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 63,240, with a change of 1,660 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 29,486, a decrease of 1,804 from T - 1, and the open interest was 25,365, down 10,916 from T - 1 [1]. - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 63,300, up 1,800 from T - 1. The trading volume was 615,010, an increase of 228,028 from T - 1, and the open interest was 341,448, a decrease of 3,768 from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 21,998, a decrease of 592 from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: - The basis of spot - 2507 was - 2,090, and spot - 2509 was - 2,150 [1]. - The basis of 2507 - 2509 was - 60 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was priced at 629, up 4 from T - 1 [1]. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 61,150, up 550 from T - 1 [1]. - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 59,550, up 550 from T - 1 [1]. - Other related lithium - salt products also showed various price changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,279 yuan/ton, up 534 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,150 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,550 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton [2]. - Zhongkuang Resources announced that its subsidiary Zhongkuang Lithium Industry plans to upgrade its 25,000 - ton - per - annum lithium salt production line and invest in a 30,000 - ton - per - annum high - purity lithium salt technical renovation project with a total investment of 120.74 million yuan. After the project is completed, the company will have a total annual production capacity of 71,000 tons of battery - grade lithium salts [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June, domestic lithium salt production resumed growth, raw material consumption increased, lithium ore inventory decreased, and there was a strong willingness to support prices. However, subsequent arrivals of lithium ore may lead to a spiral decline in lithium salt prices. In July, smelters resumed production, and production reached a new high, further increasing supply pressure [5]. - Consumption side: Subsidies for trade - ins are expected to continue. The energy storage market is currently in a state of "rush to export", but the month - on - month increase is limited. In July, the demand off - season is expected to be obvious, with battery and cathode factories showing signs of destocking and purchasing remaining cautious [5]. - Cost side: Both mines and salt factories are reducing costs, the cost curve is constantly moving down, and the psychological support in the market is also decreasing [5]. - Price outlook: SMM's weekly inventory and production increased month - on - month, smelters accumulated inventory, and downstream destocked. Downstream orders are expected to decline in the off - season, and downstream will maintain a destocking strategy with a high proportion of customer - supplied materials. Spot purchases will remain for just - in - time needs. As some smelters still have profits at current prices and supply resumes growth, inventory is expected to increase rapidly in July, and lithium carbonate prices will be under downward pressure [5]. - Strategy recommendations: For single - side trading, expect lithium carbonate prices to decline; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Summary by Directory Demand Analysis 1.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Domestic Sales Momentum - From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44% of the total vehicle sales. From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 402,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 57%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 4.76 million, a year - on - year increase of 35% [12]. - In June, the growth of new energy vehicles slowed down. On one hand, some cities exhausted subsidies for trade - ins, and there was a time lag in issuing new subsidies. On the other hand, the penetration rate exceeded 50%, limiting the growth space. The Passenger Car Association predicts that the annual wholesale volume of new energy passenger cars will be 15.73 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%, with a penetration rate of 56% [12]. - The peak - season characteristics of power cell production are not obvious. From January to May, the production is expected to increase by 54% year - on - year to 458.6 GWh, and the month - on - month increase in May was only about 2% [12]. 1.1.2 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to April 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 33.9% year - on - year to 5.97 million, compared with a 26.7% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the United States, the cumulative sales increased by 6.7% year - on - year to 523,000, compared with a 10.1% increase in the same period last year. In Europe, the cumulative sales increased by 24.6% year - on - year to 1.118 million, compared with an 11.3% increase in the same period last year. China's new energy vehicle exports increased by 52% year - on - year to 639,000, compared with a 21% increase in the same period last year [18]. - The EU's carbon emissions review has been postponed for two years, and the United States plans to cancel IRA subsidies [18]. 1.2 Energy Storage Market - "Rush to Export" Maintains Orders but with Limited Increment - In the northwestern region of China, there is an oversupply of thermal power, the peak - valley electricity price difference has decreased significantly compared with 2023, the demand for wind, solar power, and energy storage has declined, and electricity prices are expected to fall [23]. - The marginal effect of the second round of "rush to export" is diminishing, and the month - on - month increase is relatively limited. The US plan to cancel IRA subsidies has a significant impact on local energy storage project construction [23]. - SMM expects the cumulative production of Chinese energy storage cells from January to May to be 166.7 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 67%, compared with a 42% increase in the same period last year [23]. 1.3 Battery and Cathode Production Scheduled in June Remained Flat Month - on - Month - SMM's production schedule for June: Lithium iron phosphate production is expected to increase by 2% month - on - month, while ternary cathode material production is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month [26]. - From January to May, the cumulative production of power and energy storage cells increased by 57% year - on - year to 625.33 GWh [26]. - The spot market has difficulty in shipping. Due to smelter production cuts and reduced shipments, the basis is strong, but the downstream customer - supplied proportion is high, the receiving capacity is limited, and trading is light [26]. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production Increased - This week's rebound in lithium carbonate prices stimulated the continuous growth of weekly production. As smelters gradually resumed production in June, monthly production is expected to reach a new high. SMM expects June's lithium carbonate production to increase by 9% month - on - month to 78,800 tons [30]. - In May, the supply of lithium ore gradually became abundant, and lithium ore prices declined. It is expected that arrivals in June will continue to increase, and lithium ore prices still have room to fall [30]. - Due to the increase in recovery rate and the decrease in processing fees, the cost of converting the same ore price into lithium salt is lower than the same period last year [30]. 2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not further elaborated on specific data trends in the given content, only the charts of production by different raw materials (salt lake, lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling) are provided [32] 2.3 Supply Pressure of Lithium Carbonate Still Existed in June and Increased Further in July - In May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. From January to May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [42]. - Currently, Chile exports lithium carbonate and lithium sulfate to China, which diverts part of the lithium carbonate import volume. Although the apparent import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased, the supply of lithium elements still exerts significant pressure [42]. 2.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Dynamics Turned to Surplus - Not further elaborated on specific surplus data and analysis in the given content, only the chart of lithium carbonate supply - demand balance is provided [44] 2.5 Lithium Carbonate Inventory Continued to Accumulate - Lithium carbonate inventory continued to accumulate this week. As demand enters the off - season, downstream purchases cautiously and actively destocks. Spot demand remains low, and the phenomenon of "buying on dips" persists [48]. - Since the current term structure does not provide delivery profits, spot - futures traders only choose to deliver when they cannot sell their spot goods, so the warehouse receipts may remain at a low level [48]. - Spot feedback indicates that inventory at all links in the industrial chain is not low, and it is difficult for upstream to sell goods. Inventory is expected to continue to increase, presenting an opportunity for reverse arbitrage [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - expectations of lithium carbonate are fluctuating, and the fundamentals remain weak. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: - For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 61,680, with a change of 920 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 236,197, up 31,417 from T - 1; the open interest was 178,235, down 16,496 from T - 1. - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 61,740, up 760 from T - 1; the trading volume was 168,732, up 56,115 from T - 1; the open interest was 216,554, up 21,790 from T - 1 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 32,837 hands, down 110 from T - 1 [1] - **Basis**: - The basis of spot - 2507 was - 1,180, down 770 from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2509 was - 1,240, down 610 from T - 1; the basis of 2507 - 2509 was - 60, up 160 from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Materials**: - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 630, up 2 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,210, up 25 from T - 1 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500, up 150 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,900, up 150 from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 66,050, down 300 from T - 1 [1] - **Related Products**: - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 30,445, up 40 from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy - storage type) was 28,950, up 30 from T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 26,650, up 40 from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,704 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1] - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to promote more local processing [1][3] - The adsorption lithium extraction device of the 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integrated project in the Qarhan production area of China Salt Lake Industry Group Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Minmetals Corporation, completed the intermediate handover and entered the trial - production stage [1][3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]

Group 1: Lithium Production Capacity - The company has established three major production bases in Sichuan and Jiangxi, with a total lithium hydroxide production capacity of 16.5 thousand tons per year: 7.5 thousand tons in Yibin, 6 thousand tons in Meishan, and 3 thousand tons in Yichun [1][2] - A subsidiary has implemented a flexible transformation of a production line to achieve an annual capacity of 30 thousand tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, which can be converted to 26.5 thousand tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate based on market demand [2] Group 2: Resource Management and Cost Control - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and cost control in response to declining lithium salt prices by expanding quality customer relationships and locking in fixed prices for long-term contracts [2] - The strategy includes increasing the supply rate of self-owned mines to reduce raw material costs and implementing a three-tier lean improvement mechanism to enhance overall operational efficiency [2] Group 3: Mining Licenses and Future Plans - The company’s subsidiary, Yichun Shengyuan, has obtained a mining license for a lithium-containing ceramic soil mine in Jiangxi, with plans to advance resource extraction according to company strategy [2] - Future plans involve further advancing lithium mining projects and strengthening the layout of self-owned lithium resources in regions like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2] Group 4: Research and Development Initiatives - The company is actively engaged in the development of solid-state battery technologies and has formed partnerships with universities and research institutes for the research of sulfide solid electrolytes and low-cost ultra-pure lithium sulfide [3][4] - Research on spinel nickel manganese lithium materials is progressing, with the material being recognized for its cost-effectiveness and performance, making it a viable option for next-generation high-energy batteries [3][4] Group 5: Market Expansion Strategies - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with leading automotive manufacturers and battery producers, ensuring a solid customer base and sales channels [4] - Efforts are being made to continuously expand new business areas and market spaces to achieve growth in incremental business revenue and enhance product competitiveness [4]