Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is primarily driven by the adjustment of export tax rebate policies, leading to expectations of increased exports and a tight supply chain, despite potential volatility risks in the market [4][11][12]. Supply Side - As of January 12, total lithium carbonate production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, a 0.5% week-on-week rise. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached 3,959 tons, while lithium carbonate from lepidolite and salt lake sources were 2,956 tons and 3,185 tons, respectively, showing increases of 0.7% and 1.3% [5]. Demand Side - There is significant divergence in market expectations for January production. A neutral outlook suggests a demand decrease of around 5%, while ongoing negotiations in the industry could lead to a potential 10% drop. However, long-term demand from energy storage and heavy-duty vehicles remains strong, with expectations of increased orders [7][10]. Inventory Status - As of January 12, weekly inventory stood at 109,942 tons, with smelter inventory at 18,382 tons and downstream inventory at 36,540 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2,458 tons. The total warehouse receipts as of January 9 reached 25,360 contracts, an increase of 5,079 contracts week-on-week [7][9]. Cost Side - The average cost of lithium carbonate is reported at 152,955.2 yuan/ton, with a production loss of 12,705.2 yuan/ton. The production costs for spodumene and lepidolite are 153,000 yuan/ton and 142,000 yuan/ton, respectively, indicating limited profit margins [9]. Market Perspectives - The adjustment of export tax rebates has led to a surge in export demand, with expectations of concentrated "export rush" behavior in the short term. The rising raw material prices are squeezing profit margins for battery manufacturers, which may lead to increased purchasing activity if prices correct [11][12][14]. - The market sentiment is optimistic due to multiple factors including supply disruptions, improving demand, and policy catalysts. However, caution is advised as the rapid price increases may lead to profit-taking and subsequent volatility [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with the production in the last week of 22,045 tons, a 0.21% week - on - week increase, and is higher than the historical average. The predicted production in December 2025 is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% month - on - month increase. The predicted import volume is 27,000 tons, a 22.42% month - on - month increase. [8][9] - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 116,240 - 120,640. [9] - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased slightly week - on - week, and it is predicted that both production and import volume will increase next month. The inventory of downstream sample enterprises decreased. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses in production. The cash production cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [10] - **Market Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline. [11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and lithium salts generally increased, while the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium decreased. The prices of cathode materials and lithium batteries were relatively stable. [16] - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. showed different trends. The production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) and the production and import volume of lithium hydroxide all had corresponding changes. [20] - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production, export, and inventory of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and ternary materials, as well as the monthly power battery loading volume and new energy vehicle production and sales volume, all showed different trends. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the sentiment in the market is fluctuating due to news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 96,940 - 100,540 [8]. - The positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. The negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views [8] - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,998 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 103,658 tons, a 0.02% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,524 tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 98,042 yuan/ton, a 0.21% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of 4,215 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 95,062 yuan/ton, a 0.37% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of 3,579 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation. - **Basis**: On December 16th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4,750 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which was bearish. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 19,161 tons, a 7.73% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 42,738 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,570 tons, a 0.88% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 111,469 tons, a 1.87% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. - **Market**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20, which was bullish. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, which was bearish. - **Expectation**: In November 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 95,350 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's output will be 98,210 physical tons, a 3.00% month - on - month increase. The import volume in November 2025 was 25,500 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's import volume will be 27,000 physical tons, a 5.88% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase and is lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis** - The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 2.04% to 1,248 US dollars/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.74% to 95,850 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.76% to 93,350 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data** - The weekly operating rate was 83.52%, an 8.18% increase from the previous value, a 10.86% increase. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase from the previous month [18]. - **Demand - side Data** - The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, a 5.14% increase from the previous month. The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 87,480 tons, a 5.32% decrease from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 84,100 GWh, a 10.66% increase from the previous month [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production** - The price and production of lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, showed different trends over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed, and the weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed fluctuations in different years [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [28]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating Rate and Production** - The weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends over time. The monthly output and capacity of lithium carbonate also changed [31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [38]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production** - The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly output of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide also changed [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds** - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, including lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, showed different trends over time [46][48][51]. 3.7 Inventory - **Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide** - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, showed different trends over time [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Sales of Lithium Battery** - The price, production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries, including power batteries and energy - storage batteries, showed different trends over time [57][59]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production of Ternary Precursor** - The price, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also showed different situations in each month from 2024 to 2025 [62][65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production of Ternary Material** - The price, cost, production, and export volume of ternary materials showed different trends over time. The weekly inventory of ternary materials also changed [68][70]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production of Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium** - The price, cost, production, and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time. The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium also changed [72][75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export of New Energy Vehicle** - The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [80][84].

Group 1 - Report Core View - The price of lithium carbonate is experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to repeated news of production resumption [1] - The Australian government has increased the household energy storage subsidy budget from 23 billion Australian dollars (about 10.776 billion RMB) to 72 billion Australian dollars (about 33.73 billion RMB), aiming to help over 2 million people install household energy storage by 2030 and achieve about 40GWh of new installed capacity on the user - side [3] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 2 - Industry - related Data Futures Market - For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 99,100 yuan, the trading volume is 33,951, and the open interest is 98,299 [1] - For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 101,060 yuan, the trading volume is 699,601, and the open interest is 662,185 [1] - The warehouse receipt volume is 15,260 lots [1] Basis - The basis of spot - 2601 is - 3,950 yuan, spot - 2605 is - 5,910 yuan, and 2601 - 2605 is - 1,960 yuan [1] Raw Materials - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,223 yuan, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,620 yuan [1] Lithium Salts - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 95,150 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 92,650 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 88,300 yuan [1] Other Products - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,680 yuan, lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) is 38,120 yuan, and lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage type) is 34,810 yuan [1] Group 3 - Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 95,238 yuan/ton, with an increase of 657 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 95,150 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 92,650 yuan/ton, both increasing by 650 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate last week was 21,939 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.33%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. The cost of external purchase of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica led to losses, while the salt - lake end had sufficient profit margins and high production motivation. The overall situation was a tight balance between supply and demand, with emotional fluctuations caused by news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate was expected to fluctuate in the range of 89,200 - 92,800 yuan/ton [8][9][10][14]. - Bullish factors included the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors were the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week's lithium carbonate output was 21,939 tons, up 0.33% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the output was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted output for the next month was 98,210 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November was 25,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month was 27,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88% [8][10]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises last week was 103,681 tons, down 0.63% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 18,842 tons, down 2.68% week - on - week. It was expected that the demand would strengthen next month and the inventory would be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 94,487 yuan/ton, up 0.01% day - on - week, resulting in a loss of 3,021 yuan/ton; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 93,100 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - week, resulting in a loss of 3,898 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was generally higher than that at the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Comprehensive Evaluation**: Fundamentals were neutral; the basis on December 9th showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 50 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, also neutral; inventory was neutral; the disk was neutral; the main position was net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products declined, such as lithium carbonate futures closing price, which decreased by 2.29%. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1.52% [15]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 75.34%, unchanged. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, up 3.35% month - on - month. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 531,013 tons, up 2.02% month - on - month, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, up 21.86% month - on - month [19]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, up 5.14% month - on - month. The monthly export volume of lithium iron phosphate was 5,476,869 kg, up 77.13% month - on - month. The monthly output of ternary precursor and ternary material showed different trends, and the monthly power battery loading volume was 84,100 GWh, up 10.66% month - on - month [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the development of the mine shutdown incident in Nigeria [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **2601 Contract**: The closing price was 90,760 yuan, down 1,500 yuan compared to the previous trading day; the trading volume was 97,060 lots, down 4,918 lots; the open interest was 208,282 lots, up 5,063 lots [1] - **2605 Contract**: The closing price was 92,160 yuan, down 1,540 yuan compared to the previous trading day; the trading volume was 461,507 lots, down 201,951 lots; the open interest was 560,676 lots, up 47 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 10,922 lots, up 500 lots compared to the previous trading day [1] - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and 2601 contract was 2,490 yuan, up 750 yuan compared to the previous trading day; the basis between the spot and 2605 contract was 1,090 yuan, up 790 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,154 yuan, down 8 yuan compared to the previous trading day; the price of lithium mica (2.0%-2.5%) was 2,515 yuan, unchanged [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 93,250 yuan, down 750 yuan compared to the previous trading day; the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 90,800 yuan, down 750 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 93,323 yuan/ton, down 862 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day; the battery-grade lithium carbonate price was 91,600-94,900 yuan/ton, with an average of 93,250 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton; the industrial-grade lithium carbonate price was 90,100-91,500 yuan/ton, with an average of 90,800 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton [2] - The first-phase project of Hunan Zijin Lithium Multi-Metal New Materials Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate, has entered the final stage of equipment commissioning, and one production line has been trial-produced [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated greatly, with the center of gravity moving up. The 2601 contract closed at 91,020 yuan/ton, up 3,660 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2605 contract closed at 91,960 yuan/ton, up 4,080 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 7,150 yuan/ton to 92,300 yuan/ton [1]. - The destocking speed of lithium carbonate inventory has slowed down. The market expects the resumption of the Jiangxi mining project to accelerate. The weekly output increased by 585 tons to 22,000 tons. The downstream may have procurement demand at the end of the month [2]. - The long - short game in the lithium carbonate market has intensified. The long side expects downstream procurement to be concentrated at the end of November, while the short side anticipates the resumption of the Jiangxi mining project in early December. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at a high level before November and decline in December [3]. - The single - side price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to run weakly after high - level fluctuations, with the main contract price operating in the range of 80,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [4]. - For cross - period trading, a positive spread strategy is recommended. After the forced cancellation in November, attention should be paid to the possible shortage of delivery volume. Lithium salt factories are advised to hedge to lock in profits, while downstream enterprises should reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report presents multiple charts related to the price differences between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the cross - period price differences of lithium carbonate futures [7]. 3.2 Upstream Supply of Lithium Salt - Lithium Ore - Charts show the processing profit of spodumene concentrate, the average price trend of spodumene concentrate, the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate [7][8]. 3.3 Mid - stream Consumption of Lithium Salt - Lithium Salt Products - It includes charts on the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the East China region, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost, the monthly export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the monthly production volume of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly production volume of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the monthly production volume of domestic lithium carbonate by raw material, the monthly production volume of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the monthly production volume of domestic lithium carbonate by region, the weekly production volume and weekly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile and Argentina, the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate, and the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants [8][9][10][11][12]. 3.4 Downstream Consumption of Lithium Salt - Lithium Batteries and Materials - There are charts on the monthly production volume and monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, the monthly production volume and monthly operating rate of ternary materials, the monthly production volume of various types of ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production volume of various types of domestic power lithium batteries [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 97,280 - 100,680. The market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment swings triggered by news. The main logic is the tight supply - demand balance and the emotional impact of news. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline [8][9][11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% month - on - month increase [7][8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 104,738 tons, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,211 tons, a 1.74% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [7][8]. - **Cost - side**: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 91,481 yuan/ton, a 2.24% day - on - week increase, with a production loss of 1,451 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 97,058 yuan/ton, a 3.06% day - on - week increase, with a production loss of 9,277 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [8][10]. - **Market sentiment**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish trend. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend [8][10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different changes. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased from 1,086 to 1,117 dollars/ton, a 2.85% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 88,900 to 91,300 yuan/ton, a 2.70% increase [16]. - **Supply - side data**: The monthly production of lithium carbonate from various sources, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake, showed different growth rates. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene increased by 5.73% [19]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production and export of phosphoric acid iron lithium and other products also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron lithium increased by 10.54% [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Prices and production**: The prices of lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, showed an upward trend. The production of lithium ore from different sources also increased to varying degrees. For example, the production of lithium mica increased by 9.84% [26]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [28][30]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and import**: The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake, and the import volume from different countries, such as Chile and Argentina, showed different trends. For example, the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile showed a certain change [32][34]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and export**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources, such as smelting and causticizing, and the export volume showed different trends. For example, the export volume of lithium hydroxide showed a certain change [39]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and profit of different raw materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium compounds from different raw materials, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials, showed different trends. For example, the production profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 20.36% [44][47]. - **Profit of different processes**: The profit of different processes, such as lithium carbonate purification and lithium hydroxide carbonation, also showed different trends [47][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors, such as smelters, downstream enterprises, and others, showed different trends. The total inventory decreased by 2.80% week - on - week [10][52]. - **Lithium hydroxide inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in different sectors also showed different trends [52]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Prices and production**: The prices of lithium batteries showed different trends, and the monthly production of battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries also changed. For example, the monthly loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60% [56]. - **Inventory and bidding**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the bidding situation of energy storage projects also showed different trends [60]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Prices and production**: The prices of ternary precursors showed different trends, and the monthly production of ternary precursors from different series, such as 523, 622, and 811, also changed [63]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [66]. 3.10 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Prices and production**: The prices of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different trends, and the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron lithium increased by 6.35% [73][76]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium showed a certain trend [78]. 3.11 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, sales, and penetration rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production of new energy vehicles increased, and the sales penetration rate also showed a certain change [81][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Due to the good demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 98,980 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 180,463 lots, down 3,365 lots; the position of the main contract is 479,602 lots, down 23,530 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 26,916 lots, up 150 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 91,300 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 88,900 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 7,680 yuan/ton, up 2,720 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,145 US dollars/ton, up 70 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 11,075 yuan/ton, up 675 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,928 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 35,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 175,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 166,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 38,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 49.18%, down 0.49%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 38.12%, up 0.10% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 185,403 lots, down 9,600 lots; the total put position is 221,709 lots, up 37,706 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 119.58%, up 25.2231%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.48%, up 0.0423% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Do - fluoride said on the interactive platform that the company's current production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 65,000 tons/year, and the new production capacity will be determined according to market demand; Sichuan Famon's 60,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate plant has been fully completed and put into use; in October, China imported 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 3%. Among them, 14,800 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62% of the total imports; 7,274 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 30% of the total imports. In October, China exported 246 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 63% and a year - on - year decrease of 18%; customs data shows that the import of spodumene decreased in October, reaching 652,000 physical tons. Australia, Nigeria and Zimbabwe together contributed 85.7% of the total imports. Among them, 295,000 tons of ore came from Australia, a month - on - month decrease of 15%; about 110,000 tons of ore came from Nigeria, a month - on - month decrease of 8%, and the proportion of lithium concentrate increased significantly; 153,000 tons of ore came from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month increase of 40.9%. In addition, the import from South Africa decreased significantly, with 50,000 tons imported in October, a month - on - month decrease of 54.1% [2] 3.8 Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate rose and then pulled back, with a 0.84% increase at the close. The position decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis strengthened compared with the previous day. Fundamentally, the continuous strengthening of the lithium carbonate spot has driven up the price of lithium ore. Overseas miners are more willing to sell, and smelters are also more active in taking delivery. The ore trading market is relatively active. In terms of supply, domestic lithium salt plants maintain a relatively high operating rate, and the production capacity is fully released. Coupled with the significant increase in exports from Chile, it is expected that the domestic imports will also increase after arrival, so the domestic supply level will increase significantly. In terms of demand, both the power and energy storage sectors are making efforts. Driven by good demand expectations, downstream orders and production schedules have increased. Some downstream battery materials have risen rapidly due to supply shortages. In the option market, the put - call ratio of the position is 119.58%, a month - on - month increase of 25.2231%. The option market is dominated by put positions, and the sentiment in the option market has turned bearish, with the implied volatility rising slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Due to the good demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 177,527 lots, up 15,757 lots; the position of the main contract is 484,357 lots, down 78,597 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 20 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 26,611 lots/ton, down 342 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 85,050 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 6,120 yuan/ton, up 2,930 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,010 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 9,900 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,545 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 170,000 yuan/ton, up 10,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 165,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 37,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 46.45%, up 1.12%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 35.56%, up 0.36% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 171,798 lots, down 6,463 lots; the total put position is 167,227 lots, up 28,714 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 97.34%, up 19.637%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.44%, up 0.0914% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that in 2025, the investment growth rate of the automobile industry reached 17.5%. In the first 10 months of 2025, automobile production was 27.33 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; new energy vehicle production was 12.67 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%, with a penetration rate of 46%; fuel vehicle production was 14.65 million units, unchanged year - on - year. In October 2025, automobile production was 3.28 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; new energy vehicle production was 1.71 million units, a year - on - year increase of 19%, with a penetration rate of 52%; fuel vehicle production was 1.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In October, the export of new energy vehicles was 256,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 15.4% and a year - on - year increase of 99.9%. From January to October, the export of new energy vehicles was 2.014 million units, a year - on - year increase of 90.4%. The price of lithium iron phosphate, the "cost - effective champion" of batteries, has recovered, rising about 10% since October [2]