Report Summary 1. Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium: Strong Reality Support, High-level Fluctuation" [1] 2. Report Date - January 26, 2026 [1] 3. Analysts - Shao Wanyi, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015722, Email: shaowanyi@gtht.com [2] - Liu Hongru, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0023466, Email: liuhongru@gtht.com [2] 4. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 5. Core View - The report focuses on the carbonate lithium market, presenting its fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend intensity, indicating that carbonate lithium is supported by strong reality and in high - level fluctuation. [1] 6. Summary by Directory 6.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 181,520, the trading volume is 342,805, and the open interest is 438,728. For the 2607 contract, the closing price is 182,640, the trading volume is 45,693, and the open interest is 134,056. The warehouse receipt volume is 28,156. [3] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2605 contract is - 10,520, between spot and 2607 contract is - 11,640, between 2605 and 2607 contracts is - 1,120, between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 3,500, and between spot and CIF is 28,234. [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 2,214, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 5,125. [3] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 171,000, industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 167,500, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 166,350, etc. [3] - **Consumption**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and electrolytes are also presented. For example, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) is 197,400, and lithium hexafluorophosphate is 146,000. [3] 6.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 168,960 yuan/ton, up 4,103 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 171,000 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 167,500 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan/ton. [4] - According to the Passenger Car Association, the estimated total retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in January is about 1.8 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year slight increase. New energy vehicle retail sales can reach about 800,000, with a penetration rate of 44.4%. [5] 6.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of carbonate lithium is 0, indicating a neutral view. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that lithium carbonate is expected to move in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the subsequent warehouse receipt volume. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2509 and 2511 contracts of lithium carbonate were 63,880 and 63,540 respectively, with changes of 220 and 200 compared to T - 1. The trading volumes of the 2509 and 2511 contracts were 545,405 and 55,172 respectively, and the open interests were 338,034 and 95,105 respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Volume**: The warehouse receipt volume was 12,655 hands, a decrease of 2,900 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and 2509 contract was -980, and the basis between 2509 and 2511 contracts was 340 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) were 658 and 1,355 respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were 62,900 and 61,300 respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,788 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 306 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Production Data**: In June 2025, the surveyed production of lithium carbonate was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The planned production in July was 79,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%. The production in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai regions showed different trends, and the production enthusiasm of some recycling manufacturers increased [2][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a bearish view, and the market is considered to be on the weaker side [3]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The destocking speed of lithium carbonate is slow, and its price trend may remain weak [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 58,860 yuan, down 1,520 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 386,145 lots, down 1,995 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 287,506 lots, up 3,899 lots from T - 1. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 59,100 yuan, down 1,580 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 105,761 lots, up 9,832 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 149,266 lots, up 15,121 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 33,884 lots, up 30 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2507 contract was 2,040 yuan, up 920 yuan from T - 1; the basis between spot and 2509 contract was 1,800 yuan, up 980 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 677 dollars, down 3 dollars from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,210 yuan, down 25 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,233 yuan/ton, down 562 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1]. - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 131,571 tons, a decrease of 208 tons from last week. Among them, smelter inventory was 56,235 tons, downstream inventory was 41,616 tons, and other inventory was 33,720 tons [1][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the price of lithium carbonate is in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to pay attention to the transaction situation at the mining end [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 60,860 yuan, down 320 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 242,276 lots, an increase of 18,212 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 339,673 lots, an increase of 3,866 lots from T - 1. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 62,100 yuan, down 480 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 35,403 lots, a decrease of 1,867 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 87,821 lots, an increase of 4,439 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2507 basis was 2,390 yuan, down 130 yuan from T - 1; the spot - 2509 basis was 1,150 yuan, up 30 yuan from T - 1; the 2507 - 2509 basis was - 1,240 yuan, up 160 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 694 US dollars, down 6 US dollars from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,295 yuan, down 15 yuan from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,250 yuan, down 450 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,508 yuan/ton, down 466 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,600 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - **Lithium Ore Import**: In April 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 623,000 tons, with lithium ore from Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria accounting for 79%. The import volume of lithium ore from Australia was 298,000 tons, a 3% month - on - month decrease; from Zimbabwe was 106,000 tons, an 82% month - on - month increase; from Nigeria was 89,000 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase. The import of lithium ore from South Africa decreased by 22% month - on - month [3] - **Lithium Carbonate Import**: In April 2025, China imported 28,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% month - on - month increase and a 34% year - on - year increase. From January to April, China's cumulative import of lithium carbonate was 79,000 tons, a 27% cumulative year - on - year increase [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The weak oscillation pattern of lithium carbonate may continue due to limited improvement in demand and the ongoing decline in ore prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 63,220 yuan, down 820 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 217,033 lots, down 96,901 lots; the open interest was 294,226 lots, up 9,895 lots. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 64,520 yuan, down 680 yuan; the trading volume was 24,901 lots, down 12,213 lots; the open interest was 62,244 lots, up 3,352 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 36,444 lots, up 250 lots compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2507 was 1,380 yuan, up 820 yuan; the basis of spot - 2509 was 80 yuan, up 680 yuan; the basis of 2507 - 2509 was - 1,300 yuan, down 140 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 714 US dollars, down 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,360 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,600 yuan, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,950 yuan, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized powder) was 71,135 yuan, down 100 yuan [1]. - **Related Products in the Industrial Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 31,395 yuan, unchanged; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 105,080 yuan, unchanged [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,762 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - In April, China's power battery loading volume was 54.1 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 52.8%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 9.3 GWh, accounting for 17.2% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 7.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.3%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 44.8 GWh, accounting for 82.8% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 75.9%. From January to April, the cumulative loading volume of power batteries in China was 184.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.8% [3]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral situation [3].