热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 展望后市，中信期货分析师杨飞认为，虽然当下碳酸锂需求边际走弱，但远期需求预期强劲，供应维持 高位，市场情绪对价格的影响较大。虽然几家头部正极材料厂集中检修，将造成2026年1月份需求减 弱，但检修会影响材料厂和下游的订单谈判，从而从侧面检验需求的水平。整体来看，2026年1月份材 料厂检修会造成需求走弱，累库确定性提升，不过在市场情绪偏强及远月乐观的背景下，预计碳酸锂价 格整体仍偏强震荡。 国务院于2026年1月5日印发的《关于固体废物综合治理行动计划的通知》提出，推动重有色金属矿采选 一体化建设，促进尾矿就近充填回填，原则上不再批准建设无自建矿山、无配套尾矿利用处置设施的选 矿项目；推动重点行业固体废物产生量与综合消纳量逐步实现动态平衡。对此，市场人士认为，该文件 可能会对江西当前某些矿端产生一定影响。 还值得关注的是，委内瑞拉总统被美国强行控制的事件，也在一定程度上影响了市场情绪。"从一个宏 大叙事的角度讲，这一事件提升了关键资源的政治风险和安全溢价。"中信建投期货分析师张维鑫表 示，尽管该事件短期内对锂的供应影响有限，但金 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term bullish stance on the lithium carbonate industry [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - Terminal demand (energy storage + new energy vehicles) is in the peak season, material production is basically flat, the social inventory transfer chain is smooth. The environmental assessment of the Shixiawo mine is in progress, and the supply pressure is alleviated. Demand provides mid - term support for lithium carbonate prices [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 97,650 with a rise of 100; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 95,050 with a rise of 100 [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 109,720 with a daily gain of 3.92%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 109,740 with a 3.94% gain; lithium carbonate 2603 is 109,940 with a 3.66% gain; lithium carbonate 2604 is 111,180 with a 3.52% gain; lithium carbonate 2605 is 111,400 with a 3.86% gain [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 1,318 with a drop of 8; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,825, lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,835 with a rise of 10; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 10,425, phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 11,800 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 40,285 with a rise of 25; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 163,400 with a rise of 100; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 146,300 with a rise of 100 [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,600 with no change; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 13,750 with a decrease of 5,140; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 20 with an increase of 120; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 220 with an increase of 120 [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 110,425 tons with a decrease of 1,044 tons, including 18,090 tons in smelters (a decrease of 1,071 tons), 41,485 tons in downstream (a decrease of 1,253 tons), and 50,850 tons in others (an increase of 1,280 tons). The daily registered warehouse receipts are 15,511 tons with a decrease of 17,447 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 103,940 with a profit of - 7,653; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 100,023 with a profit of - 6,161 [3]

行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 碳酸锂期货冲高回落，在供应端扰动情绪褪去后，前日高点压制明显，日内电碳 涨 500 至 97550，澳矿涨 10 至 1340，云母涨 40 至 2825，三元涨 200-800，铁锂 涨 120，电解液持平，本周碳酸锂周度库存去库 1044 吨至 110425 吨，去库力度 继续放缓，预计将打压短期市场热情，不过在产业链涨价态势稳固的背景下，预 计锂价回调空间也有限。 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, 2025, the 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 4.47% to 95,400 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 92,050 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 89,650 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 81,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 105 tons to 26,615 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons. In October, the import of lithium carbonate increased by 22% to 24,000 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly production of ternary materials increased by 118 tons to 19,002 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 79 tons to 19,290 tons; the weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 118 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 2,154 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been destocked for 14 consecutive weeks to 118,400 tons, and the inventory turnover days have decreased to 26.8 days [3]. - The weekly inventory continued the destocking trend last week, but the marginal change shows that the weekly destocking has slowed down. The weighted contract positions are still large, with risks of continued position reduction and transfer. Although the market sentiment was boosted by news on November 25, the fundamentals may weaken marginally, leading to a short - term downward risk in prices. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long after over - decline or the full release of negative factors [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 95,400 yuan/ton, up 4,920 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 95,340 yuan/ton, up 5,140 yuan. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,067 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars; the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide decreased by 100 yuan/ton, except for the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea), which decreased by 0.05 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 160,500 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,400 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at - 10,870 yuan/ton; the price difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 276 yuan [5]. - Precursors and cathode materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials decreased, with the exception of some materials whose prices remained unchanged. - Cells and batteries: The prices of most cells and batteries remained unchanged, while the prices of some products increased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025, showing their price trends over time [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - The report shows charts of the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025, reflecting their price changes [11][15]. 3.2.3 Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences such as the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 to 2025 [18]. 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - The report provides charts of the prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials (including various types of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, cobalt acid lithium) from 2024 to 2025, showing their price trends [23][25]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025, reflecting their price changes [31]. 3.2.6 Inventory - The report shows charts of the inventory of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from April to November 2025, reflecting the inventory changes [35]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The report provides a chart of the production costs of lithium carbonate (including cash production profits from different raw materials) from 2024 to 2025, showing the cost - profit situation [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The approaching traditional peak season for new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand, along with the continuous reduction of lithium carbonate social inventory, support the futures price. However, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price. Attention should be paid to whether the market will take advantage of the supply - side issue again in the context of demand improvement and the reported environmental problems in Qinghai salt lakes [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,600 yuan/ton, with no change [1] - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts (2510, 2511, 2512, 2601, 2602) are 72,680 yuan/ton (-0.66%), 72,880 yuan/ton (-0.79%), 72,900 yuan/ton (-0.87%), 72,860 yuan/ton (-0.79%), and 72,600 yuan/ton (-1.04%) respectively [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 856 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1875 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6080 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7210 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,710 yuan/ton; the average prices of ternary materials 811 (polycrystalline/power type), 523 (single - crystal/power type), and 613 (single - crystal/power type) are 147,550 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), 120,450 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), and 125,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 970 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton; the price spreads between the near - month and the first - continuous contract, and the near - month and the second - continuous contract are - 200 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) and - 220 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 137,531 tons, down 981 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,456 tons, down 1757 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,495 tons, up 1216 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,580 tons, down 440 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 39,749 tons, up 300 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,297 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 2,519 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly given, with a profit of - 7,944 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the latest data on lithium carbonate, lithium ore, cathode materials, and related price spreads and inventories. It also mentions that the Central Political Bureau will govern disorderly competition in enterprises and promote capacity management in key industries. In addition, it is expected that the futures price may face certain trends in the short - term due to factors such as the normal production of mines in Jiangxi, the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment caused by price drops, small increases in demand - side production schedules, and limited procurement space for downstream buyers [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,350 with no change, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 69,250 with no change [1]. - Among lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 69,200 with a 1.05% increase; lithium carbonate 2509 has a 0.09% increase; lithium carbonate 2510 has a 0.06% increase; lithium carbonate 2511 has a - 0.09% decrease; lithium carbonate 2512 has a - 0.35% decrease [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 760 with a change of 5 [1]. - The prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O contents are: 1085 for Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%, 1710 for Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%; the prices of amblygonite are 5350 for Li₂O: 6% - 7% (with a change of 75) and 6280 for Li₂O: 7% - 8% (with a change of 85) [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,630, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,170 with a 20 increase, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,855 with a 30 increase, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,485 with a 10 increase [2]. Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) is 2100; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2310 with a 200 change; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 120 with an 80 change; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 120 with a 200 change [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,726 with a - 1444 change, the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 51,958 with a - 3427 change, the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 45,888 with a 3073 change, the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,880 with a - 1090 change, and the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 12,603 with a 5998 change [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,441, and the profit is 75,292; the profit of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is - 6850 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Downstream enters the off - season with stable production scheduling, and the supply side increases hedging output driven by price rebound. Although the ore price shows signs of stabilization, the downstream restocking amplitude is small. The fundamentals are characterized by strong supply and stable demand, and the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to decline in the short term. There is no sign of production reduction at the ore end, and there is a possibility that the lithium carbonate price and the ore price will form a negative feedback again later [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,500 yuan, down 150 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,900 yuan, down 150 yuan [1] 3.2 Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2506 closes at 60,000 yuan, up 0.03%; 2507 closes at 60,240 yuan, down 0.13%; 2508 down 0.46%; 2509 closes at 59,780 yuan, down 0.7%; 2510 closes at 59,780 yuan, down 0.93% [1] 3.3 Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 624 yuan, down 5 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) price is 5 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1225 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) price is 5660 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) price is 6595 yuan [1][2] 3.4 Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,405 yuan, down 70 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,550 yuan, down 140 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,575 yuan, down 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,075 yuan, down 140 yuan [2] 3.5 Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 720 yuan, down 130 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 240 yuan, up 220 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 460 yuan, up 320 yuan [2] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 133,549 tons, up 1117 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 57,653 tons, up 537 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,686 tons, down 390 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,210 tons, up 970 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 32,043 tons, down 75 tons [2] 3.7 Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 536 yuan, and the profit is - 879 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 65,237 yuan, and the profit is - 7076 yuan [3] 3.8 Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. It has banned the export of lithium ore since 2022 to encourage more domestic processing by miners [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a bearish view, and the market is considered to be on the weaker side [3]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The destocking speed of lithium carbonate is slow, and its price trend may remain weak [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 58,860 yuan, down 1,520 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 386,145 lots, down 1,995 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 287,506 lots, up 3,899 lots from T - 1. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 59,100 yuan, down 1,580 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 105,761 lots, up 9,832 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 149,266 lots, up 15,121 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 33,884 lots, up 30 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2507 contract was 2,040 yuan, up 920 yuan from T - 1; the basis between spot and 2509 contract was 1,800 yuan, up 980 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 677 dollars, down 3 dollars from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,210 yuan, down 25 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,233 yuan/ton, down 562 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1]. - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 131,571 tons, a decrease of 208 tons from last week. Among them, smelter inventory was 56,235 tons, downstream inventory was 41,616 tons, and other inventory was 33,720 tons [1][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate prices may stabilize due to policy expectations, but the high - inventory and oversupply situation remains unchanged. The downward trend in the cost side opens up price space, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - The short - term price of lithium carbonate may be affected by policy expectations and stabilize, but the high - inventory and oversupply pattern persists, and the cost decline allows for price drops, with a forecast of weak oscillation [12] 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand reaching 142.3 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply reaching 165.0 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 13%. The global lithium market shows a trend of changing from surplus to shortage and then back to surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium carbonate are both increasing. In May 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be 91,250 tons, and the total demand is expected to be 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [16] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In April, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 89,560 tons, and the total demand was 87,292 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 2,268 tons. In May, the estimated total supply was 91,250 tons, and the total demand was 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [10] 3.3.2 Inventory - According to SMM data, the monthly inventory in April was 96,202 physical tons, including 45,169 physical tons of downstream inventory and 51,033 physical tons of smelter inventory. The weekly inventory this week was 131,920 physical tons, including 56,522 physical tons of smelter inventory, 41,428 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 33,970 physical tons of battery and trader inventory. According to Baichuan data, the lithium carbonate factory inventory was 34,785 tons [10] 3.3.3 Price Difference - On May 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%, the futures price was 61,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,700 yuan/ton [10]

Group 1 - The total inventory of lithium carbonate in China reached approximately 106,500 tons by the end of February 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.18% [1] - End users are replenishing their inventories based on demand, leading to a noticeable increase in inventory levels among lithium salt manufacturers [1] Group 2 - Xinluo Information, established in 2010, primarily serves the carbon, lithium battery, and electric furnace steel industries, focusing on industry research and consulting services [2] - The company provides a range of services including databases, industry forecasts, strategic consulting, and media promotion [2]