Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the latest data on lithium carbonate, lithium ore, cathode materials, and related price spreads and inventories. It also mentions that the Central Political Bureau will govern disorderly competition in enterprises and promote capacity management in key industries. In addition, it is expected that the futures price may face certain trends in the short - term due to factors such as the normal production of mines in Jiangxi, the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment caused by price drops, small increases in demand - side production schedules, and limited procurement space for downstream buyers [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,350 with no change, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 69,250 with no change [1]. - Among lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 69,200 with a 1.05% increase; lithium carbonate 2509 has a 0.09% increase; lithium carbonate 2510 has a 0.06% increase; lithium carbonate 2511 has a - 0.09% decrease; lithium carbonate 2512 has a - 0.35% decrease [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 760 with a change of 5 [1]. - The prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O contents are: 1085 for Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%, 1710 for Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%; the prices of amblygonite are 5350 for Li₂O: 6% - 7% (with a change of 75) and 6280 for Li₂O: 7% - 8% (with a change of 85) [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,630, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,170 with a 20 increase, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,855 with a 30 increase, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,485 with a 10 increase [2]. Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) is 2100; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2310 with a 200 change; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 120 with an 80 change; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 120 with a 200 change [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,726 with a - 1444 change, the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 51,958 with a - 3427 change, the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 45,888 with a 3073 change, the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,880 with a - 1090 change, and the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 12,603 with a 5998 change [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,441, and the profit is 75,292; the profit of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is - 6850 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Downstream enters the off - season with stable production scheduling, and the supply side increases hedging output driven by price rebound. Although the ore price shows signs of stabilization, the downstream restocking amplitude is small. The fundamentals are characterized by strong supply and stable demand, and the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to decline in the short term. There is no sign of production reduction at the ore end, and there is a possibility that the lithium carbonate price and the ore price will form a negative feedback again later [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,500 yuan, down 150 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,900 yuan, down 150 yuan [1] 3.2 Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2506 closes at 60,000 yuan, up 0.03%; 2507 closes at 60,240 yuan, down 0.13%; 2508 down 0.46%; 2509 closes at 59,780 yuan, down 0.7%; 2510 closes at 59,780 yuan, down 0.93% [1] 3.3 Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 624 yuan, down 5 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) price is 5 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1225 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) price is 5660 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) price is 6595 yuan [1][2] 3.4 Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,405 yuan, down 70 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,550 yuan, down 140 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,575 yuan, down 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,075 yuan, down 140 yuan [2] 3.5 Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 720 yuan, down 130 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 240 yuan, up 220 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 460 yuan, up 320 yuan [2] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 133,549 tons, up 1117 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 57,653 tons, up 537 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,686 tons, down 390 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,210 tons, up 970 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 32,043 tons, down 75 tons [2] 3.7 Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 536 yuan, and the profit is - 879 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 65,237 yuan, and the profit is - 7076 yuan [3] 3.8 Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. It has banned the export of lithium ore since 2022 to encourage more domestic processing by miners [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a bearish view, and the market is considered to be on the weaker side [3]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The destocking speed of lithium carbonate is slow, and its price trend may remain weak [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 58,860 yuan, down 1,520 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 386,145 lots, down 1,995 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 287,506 lots, up 3,899 lots from T - 1. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 59,100 yuan, down 1,580 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 105,761 lots, up 9,832 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 149,266 lots, up 15,121 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 33,884 lots, up 30 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2507 contract was 2,040 yuan, up 920 yuan from T - 1; the basis between spot and 2509 contract was 1,800 yuan, up 980 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 677 dollars, down 3 dollars from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,210 yuan, down 25 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,233 yuan/ton, down 562 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1]. - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 131,571 tons, a decrease of 208 tons from last week. Among them, smelter inventory was 56,235 tons, downstream inventory was 41,616 tons, and other inventory was 33,720 tons [1][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate prices may stabilize due to policy expectations, but the high - inventory and oversupply situation remains unchanged. The downward trend in the cost side opens up price space, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - The short - term price of lithium carbonate may be affected by policy expectations and stabilize, but the high - inventory and oversupply pattern persists, and the cost decline allows for price drops, with a forecast of weak oscillation [12] 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand reaching 142.3 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply reaching 165.0 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 13%. The global lithium market shows a trend of changing from surplus to shortage and then back to surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium carbonate are both increasing. In May 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be 91,250 tons, and the total demand is expected to be 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [16] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In April, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 89,560 tons, and the total demand was 87,292 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 2,268 tons. In May, the estimated total supply was 91,250 tons, and the total demand was 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [10] 3.3.2 Inventory - According to SMM data, the monthly inventory in April was 96,202 physical tons, including 45,169 physical tons of downstream inventory and 51,033 physical tons of smelter inventory. The weekly inventory this week was 131,920 physical tons, including 56,522 physical tons of smelter inventory, 41,428 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 33,970 physical tons of battery and trader inventory. According to Baichuan data, the lithium carbonate factory inventory was 34,785 tons [10] 3.3.3 Price Difference - On May 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%, the futures price was 61,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,700 yuan/ton [10]

Group 1 - The total inventory of lithium carbonate in China reached approximately 106,500 tons by the end of February 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.18% [1] - End users are replenishing their inventories based on demand, leading to a noticeable increase in inventory levels among lithium salt manufacturers [1] Group 2 - Xinluo Information, established in 2010, primarily serves the carbon, lithium battery, and electric furnace steel industries, focusing on industry research and consulting services [2] - The company provides a range of services including databases, industry forecasts, strategic consulting, and media promotion [2]