1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have limited improvement in the weak reality. The downstream and end - users have limited ability to accept high prices, but there are frequent disturbances on the supply side, and the influence of funds and sentiment remains significant. It is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The recommended strategy is to hold put options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000 [4][84] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 15.82%. The trading volume reached 6.27 million lots (+1.98 million), and the open interest reached 491,100 lots (+113,800). The basis was at a discount of 7,620 yuan/ton [5][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In June, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,450 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 6.6%; lithium mica production was 16,800 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. Lithium concentrate imports decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. In April, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [12][16][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In June, the recycling of waste lithium batteries was 18,366 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. In June, lithium carbonate imports decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In June, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 10,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.2% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In June, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 35%, and the production was 24,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.8%. Exports were 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [39] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 77,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. In June, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 56%, and the production was 229,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 56% [42] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary materials production was 15,502 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. In June, imports and exports increased [47] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In June, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 36%, and the production was 68,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. Exports decreased in June [50] 3.3.4 Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In June, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 33%, and the production was 11,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 19%. The operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 57%, and the production was 9,730 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4% [51] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In June, electrolyte production was 159,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 45.6%. Exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased in June [54] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In June, power battery production was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 52.9%. The installed capacity was 58.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 36.0% [60] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In June, new energy vehicle production was 1.268 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. Sales were 1.329 million units, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 26.7% [63] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In June, energy storage battery production was 41.65 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 13.9% and a year - on - year increase of 42.7%. In May, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.15 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.66 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [68] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In June, China's smartphone production was 108.27 million units, a month - on - month increase of 19.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 31.59 million units, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [71] 3.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices rebounded. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by $75/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 460 yuan/ton [74] 3.6 Inventory - Total inventory decreased by 550 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory decreased by 2,654 tons, downstream inventory increased by 1,544 tons, and other inventory increased by 1,660 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased by 168 tons, and ternary materials inventory increased by 229 tons [80][81] 3.7 Market Outlook - The recommended strategy is to hold put options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000. On the resource side, there are frequent disturbances in domestic lithium mica supply, lithium spodumene production increases, and lithium ore imports decrease. On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, imported lithium salt volume decreased, Chile's lithium salt exports were low, and the recycling end continued to decline. On the demand side, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down. The production schedules of cathode and cell factories were stable. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased and ternary materials inventory increased; energy storage battery production scheduling increased, and the winning bid scale of energy storage increased. On the cost side, the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rebounded significantly. In terms of inventory, overall inventory decreased, smelters' inventory decreased, and downstream and other inventory increased. Overall, the weak reality of lithium carbonate fundamentals has limited improvement, the downstream and end - users have limited ability to accept high prices, but there are frequent supply - side disturbances, and the influence of funds and sentiment remains significant, so lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely [84]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of supply and demand factors, with supply pressure easing but demand data not performing well [3]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [4]. - Copper prices are currently oscillating strongly, mainly supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out, followed by a strategy of shorting on rebounds [10]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and soybean oil prices are all expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [14][15][17][18]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. - Coking coal prices are generally bearish due to loose supply - demand and weakening demand [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, but actual production growth is less than expected. Canadian wildfires have led to a reduction in production, and US oil production is expected to decline [3]. - Demand: Market risk appetite has rebounded, but refined oil demand and inventory data are not good, and the negative impact of the global trade war on the economy has not been fully reversed [3]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate [3]. Urea - Supply: There are temporary inspections in some factories, and daily production has decreased, but the daily production is still around 200,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Market sentiment is weak, agricultural demand is not strong, and compound fertilizer factories are mainly focused on inventory reduction [4]. - Price trend: The price dropped by nearly 2% today, and the market sentiment is expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future [4]. Copper - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses. Other regions' copper inventories have decreased due to steel tariffs [9]. - Demand: Apparent consumption has decreased, downstream开工率has declined, and demand is the main factor restricting price increases [9]. - Price trend: Currently oscillating strongly, supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under tariff expectations [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase in June, and the fundamental situation is still one of oversupply [10]. - Demand: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the support for prices is limited [10]. - Price trend: Oscillating around 60,000 yuan, with a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The starting rate has rebounded, and the scheduled production in June is expected to increase [12]. - Demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the demand for road asphalt is restricted by funds [12]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. PP - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, increasing supply [13][14]. - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, new orders are limited, and inventory pressure is high [13][14]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: Downstream开工率is at a low level, and new orders are slow to follow up, with high inventory pressure [15]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - Supply: The starting rate has increased, and social inventory is still high [16][17]. - Demand: Downstream开工率has declined, and export is affected by policies. Demand improvement is limited [16][17]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans has increased, and the soybean crushing volume is at a historical high, with high inventory [18]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and downstream stocking willingness is low [18]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [19][20]. - Demand: The weather in the United States is favorable for soybean growth, and the supply outlook is good [19]. - Price trend: Expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The customs clearance volume remains high, and the total inventory is at a high level [21]. - Demand: Steel mills' demand for coking coal has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened [21]. - Price trend: Generally bearish [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a bearish view, and the market is considered to be on the weaker side [3]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The destocking speed of lithium carbonate is slow, and its price trend may remain weak [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 58,860 yuan, down 1,520 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 386,145 lots, down 1,995 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 287,506 lots, up 3,899 lots from T - 1. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 59,100 yuan, down 1,580 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 105,761 lots, up 9,832 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 149,266 lots, up 15,121 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 33,884 lots, up 30 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2507 contract was 2,040 yuan, up 920 yuan from T - 1; the basis between spot and 2509 contract was 1,800 yuan, up 980 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 677 dollars, down 3 dollars from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,210 yuan, down 25 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 61,233 yuan/ton, down 562 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1]. - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 131,571 tons, a decrease of 208 tons from last week. Among them, smelter inventory was 56,235 tons, downstream inventory was 41,616 tons, and other inventory was 33,720 tons [1][3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak, which restricts the upside space, and there are non - mine policy risk disturbances [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 62,140, with a change of 1,040 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 427,180, and the open interest was 312,662. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 63,320, the trading volume was 62,015, and the open interest was 95,742. The warehouse receipt volume was 35,863 [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2507 was 910, spot - 2509 was - 270, 2507 - 2509 was - 1,180, electric carbon - industrial carbon was 1,600, and spot - CIF was 2,536 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 690, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,280. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 8,400, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,450, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,380 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,450 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous working day [2] - Lithium exporters in Zimbabwe, including Chengxin Lithium Group, requested a two - and - a - half - year postponement of the 5% export tax until 2027 when lithium concentrate refining plants are expected to be operational. Zimbabwe supplied about 14% of China's lithium imports in 2024 [3] - The total industry inventory of lithium carbonate this week was 131,779 tons, a slight decrease of 141 tons from last week [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [3]

碳酸锂：弱势震荡，关注矿端成交情况 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 60,860 | -320 | -2,360 | -4,400 | -10,040 | -16,820 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 242,276 | 18,212 | 25,243 | 138,297 | 212,245 | 235,899 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 339,673 | 3,866 | 45,447 | 83,382 | 216,831 | 315,612 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收盘价） | 62,100 | -4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The weak oscillation pattern of lithium carbonate may continue due to limited improvement in demand and the ongoing decline in ore prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 63,220 yuan, down 820 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 217,033 lots, down 96,901 lots; the open interest was 294,226 lots, up 9,895 lots. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 64,520 yuan, down 680 yuan; the trading volume was 24,901 lots, down 12,213 lots; the open interest was 62,244 lots, up 3,352 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 36,444 lots, up 250 lots compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2507 was 1,380 yuan, up 820 yuan; the basis of spot - 2509 was 80 yuan, up 680 yuan; the basis of 2507 - 2509 was - 1,300 yuan, down 140 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 714 US dollars, down 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,360 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,600 yuan, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,950 yuan, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized powder) was 71,135 yuan, down 100 yuan [1]. - **Related Products in the Industrial Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 31,395 yuan, unchanged; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 105,080 yuan, unchanged [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,762 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - In April, China's power battery loading volume was 54.1 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 52.8%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 9.3 GWh, accounting for 17.2% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 7.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.3%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 44.8 GWh, accounting for 82.8% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 75.9%. From January to April, the cumulative loading volume of power batteries in China was 184.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.8% [3]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral situation [3].