证券研究报告：基础化工|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-05 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5006.07 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5235.06 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3081.91 | 行业相对指数表现 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-03 -10% -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 38% 44% 50% 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:刘海荣 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120006 Email:liuhairong@cnpsec.com 分析师:费晨洪 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120003 Email:feichenhong@cnpsec.com 分析师:李家豪 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120005 Email:lijiahao@cnpsec.com 分析师:刘隆基 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120002 Email:liulongji@cnpsec.com ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 陈宇森 投资咨询号:Z0023460 从业资格号:F03123927 2026/03/04 贵金属与新能源研究中心 数据来源:SMM,公开新闻整理 锂化合物 2000000 平均价 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 -11500 161000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 157500 -11500 3000 150000 收盘价 期货合约 涨跌幅 碳酸锂2603 148120 -12.99% 100000 碳酸锂2604 150200 -13% 碳酸锂2605 -12. 99% 150860 50000 1000 碳酸锂2606 151260 -13% 碳酸锂2607 151380 -12.99% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 2220 -140 44 (Li20:5.5%-6%) | | 锂云母 | 3565 | -120 | 电硕-工候价差 元/吨 | 一 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 分付产品给给您求证 T./ H4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5% ...

2026 年 3 月 3 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | 碳酸锂：供需偏强，关注底部支撑 | | --- | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 | 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 172,020 | -4,020 | 19,380 | 39,100 | 5,280 | 75,680 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 227,061 | -54,919 | -73,130 | -359,645 | -149,357 | -583,170 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 378,336 | -3 ...

碳酸锂：供需去库，关注市场情绪 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 | 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 2026 年 3 月 2 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 期货研究 在《汽车行业价格行为合规指南》实施后，价格倒挂现象改善，25.6%的经销商表示倒挂情况有所缓解， 超七成经销商认为未发生明显变化；在经销商盈利层面，20.7%的经销商盈利实现提升。（上海有色网） | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 176,040 | 2,380 | 26,620 | 43,260 | 15,540 ...

| | 锂云母 | 3600 | 350 | - 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 一 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 T. / HH 元/中 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) ( | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2. 0%-2. 5%) | 5400 | 575 | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) HERE | 14100 | 500 | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 15300 | 600 | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 56385 | 2365 | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 207600 | 4100 | | | | | 三元材料523(单晶/动力型) | 183500 | 3900 | | | | 170 | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 184900 | 4000 | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 变化值 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The battery ETF Southern (159147) increased by 2.04% with a transaction volume of 27.09 million yuan, while key stocks in the index, such as Defu Technology, Tianhua New Energy, and Duofluoride, saw significant gains of 10.19%, 7.61%, and 6.32% respectively [1] - The U.S. government is considering imposing new tariffs on approximately six industries, including batteries, citing "national security" as the reason. This move follows the Trump administration's use of Section 232 to expand tariffs beyond the existing 15% global rate [1] - Analysts indicate that if tariffs are implemented, the President can unilaterally adjust them, providing greater operational flexibility in policy continuity and execution. The tariffs will significantly increase export costs, prompting overseas clients to accelerate orders [1] Group 2 - Sodium battery technology has shown breakthroughs and mass production capabilities, demonstrating resilience in supply diversity. Sodium batteries offer superior low-temperature performance and lower costs, complementing lithium batteries and showing promising prospects in energy storage and power battery applications [2] - The price of lithium carbonate has rebounded significantly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 6.9% and industrial-grade by 7.46% in the last week. This price surge is driven by a temporary improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with downstream production expected to increase by over 15% starting in March [2] - The Southern Battery ETF (159147) closely tracks the CSI Battery Theme Index, which includes listed companies involved in power batteries, energy storage batteries, consumer electronics batteries, and related upstream and downstream industries. The top ten weighted stocks in the index include CATL, Sungrow Power, and others [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant price increases in industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate, while other products like liquid chlorine and nitric acid experienced substantial declines [2][4] - Key products with notable price increases this week include industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.58%), battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.46%), PVC (up 6.06%), and ammonium chloride (up 5.71%) [2][4] - Conversely, products with significant price declines include liquid chlorine (down 46.95%), nitric acid (down 8.00%), and natural gas (down 5.99%) [2][4] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently in a weak overall performance phase, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [4] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high dividend yields [4] - Specific recommendations include investing in glyphosate companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, as well as domestic leaders in lubricant additives and coal-to-olefins [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant price increases in industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate, while other products like liquid chlorine and nitric acid experienced substantial declines [2][4] - The report indicates that industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by 7.58%, and battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 7.46%, with PVC and ammonium chloride also showing notable gains [2][4] - Conversely, products such as liquefied gas and liquid chlorine saw significant price drops, with liquid chlorine decreasing by 46.95% [2][4] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently facing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [4] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high dividend yields [4] - Specific recommendations include companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical in the glyphosate sector, and China National Chemical Fertilizer as a key recommendation in the fertilizer industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Material, Sinopec, Ju Hua Co., Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Tong Kun Co., and Dao Tong Technology [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases for industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.58%) and battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.46%), while liquid chlorine and nitric acid experienced substantial declines [4][18]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend stocks, particularly in light of fluctuating international oil prices [6][18]. - The chemical industry is currently facing a mixed performance, with some sectors showing resilience while others struggle due to overcapacity and weak demand [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price trends in key chemical products, noting both significant increases and decreases in various sectors [4][18]. - It recommends focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and companies with strong domestic demand and import substitution potential [21]. Price Trends - Key products that saw price increases include industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate, PVC, and ammonium chloride, while products like liquid chlorine and nitric acid saw significant price drops [4][5][18]. - The report indicates that the overall chemical industry remains weak, with performance varying across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. Market Outlook - The report predicts that international oil prices will stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines [6][18]. - It highlights the potential for certain sectors, such as the lubricants and chemical fertilizers, to benefit from domestic demand and import substitution strategies [21].

值得注意的是，此前，赣锋锂业董事长李良彬也曾在2025年底公开预测，若2026年需求增速超过30%，碳酸锂价格有望突破15万元/吨甚至20万元/ 吨。 （原标题：瑞银高调唱多 狂拉超10%！碳酸锂期货创历史最大涨幅） 农历新年后的首个交易日，碳酸锂市场迎来强势"开门红"。2月24日，碳酸锂主力期货合约开盘即跳空高开，盘中最高触及165800元/吨，最高涨 幅超11%，截至收盘报164120元/吨，涨幅达10.56%，创上市以来最大单日涨幅。 现货市场同步跟涨。据上海有色网（SMM）数据，当日电池级碳酸锂均价报152000元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨8250元/吨，日内涨幅5.74%；工业 级碳酸锂均价报148500元/吨，环比同样上涨8250元/吨，日内涨幅5.88%，期现货形成联动上涨态势。 资本市场层面，A股锂矿概念亦同步发力。截至收盘，锂矿指数（884785.WI）大涨3.77%，成分股全线飘红，其中盛新锂能（002240.SZ）涨幅达 7.2%，永兴材料（002756.SZ）、盐湖股份（000792.SZ）、赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）等龙头股涨幅均超5%。市场资金对锂矿市场的关注度显著提 升。 此轮 ...