| 业期現日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【2011 1292号 2025 4 TIE 27 E | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | a500 | a500 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 540 | 560 | -20 | -3.57% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9750 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | -10 | 10 | -20 | -200.00% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8900 | 8900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 740 | 760 | -20 | -2.63% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 消费 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 251 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 11 月 25 日 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《动力和储能电池需求强劲，原材料和电芯价 格明显回升》2025-11-19 《电新行业 2025Q3 公募基金持仓分析》 2025-11-19 《25Q3 光伏组件出口超预期，储能需求旺盛》 2025-11-19 《新能源细分领域景气度回升，关注基本面改 善低估值标的》2025-11-17 《场景拓展打开增量空间，龙头引领固态技术 升级》2025-10-22 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com 行业及产业 储能锂电需求向好，锂电材料价格温和 抬升 ——锂电行业跟踪 目录 | 1. 储能锂电需求向好, 锂电材料价格温和抬升 . | | --- | | 1.1 排产 . | | 1.2 价格 | | 1.3 国内需求………………………………………………………………… ...

化工现货方面，上周涨幅前五名的石化产品分别为工业级碳酸锂上涨13.67%、碳酸二甲酯上涨 12.32%、锂电池电解液上涨8%、硫酸上涨7.54%、叶酸上涨6.25%；跌幅前五名的石化产品分别为液氯 下跌6.25%、二甘醇下跌5.35%、丙烯酸异辛酯下跌5.13%、乙烯法聚氯乙烯下跌3.49%、四氯乙烯下跌 3.49%。 资本市场方面，上周沪深两市股价涨幅前五名的上市化企分别是国风塑业上涨33.33%、华融化学上涨 27.82%、同益股份上涨16.51%、晨光新材上涨16.37%、彤程新材上涨14.75%；股价跌幅前五名的上市 化企分别是安纳达下跌26.13%、泰和科技下跌25.64%、嘉澳环保下跌25.62%、建业股份下跌24.85%、 三房巷下跌23.33%。 上周，特朗普政府敦促乌克兰和俄罗斯达成和平协议，以结束持续3年的战争，令原油市场情绪转为看 空，加之美元走强，导致原油价格一路下行。截至11月21日，纽约商品交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油期货 (WTI)主力合约结算价格为58.06美元/桶，较11月14日下跌3.38%；洲际交易所布伦特原油期货(Brent)主 力合约结算价格为62.56美元/桶，较11月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [9][19]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant price increases in products such as toluene (up 25.22%) and liquid chlorine (up 13.73%), while products like butadiene and vinyl acetate saw notable declines [4][5][16]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current international oil price fluctuations [6][19]. - The report anticipates that the international oil price will stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material price declines [6][19]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets for potential investment opportunities [19]. - It recommends companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to enter a favorable economic cycle [19]. - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and certain pesticide sectors, suggesting a focus on companies like China Heartland Fertilizer and Hualu Hengsheng [19]. Price Trends and Market Analysis - The report notes that while some chemical products have rebounded in price, the overall industry remains weak, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [17][19]. - It provides detailed price movements for various chemicals, indicating a general trend of price increases for certain products and declines for others [4][5][16]. - The report discusses the impact of OPEC's decisions on oil prices and how this affects the chemical industry, particularly in terms of raw material costs [6][20]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report includes a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, with a focus on their expected EPS and PE ratios for the coming years [9]. - Companies such as Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for growth [9][19]. - The report suggests that companies with strong asset quality and high dividend yields, like the "three barrels of oil," will benefit from the current market conditions [19].

2025 年 11 月 19 日 品 研 究 碳酸锂：短期或有回调 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 93,520 | -1,680 | 6,980 | 14,960 | 17,740 | 16,580 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 1,487,724 | 120,805 | 585,234 | 511,746 | 1,184,122 | 1,362,496 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 484,357 | -78,597 | -42,136 | 26,983 | 212,499 | ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：有研究认为，公司扎布耶锂矿开采成本虽然比辉锂矿 的成本每吨低2万多元人民币，但藏区的运输成本相对更高，考虑运输成本，成本优势相对有限。请问 是否属实？公司扎布耶的锂矿产品是如何参与市场的，开采成本考虑运输成本后，价格还比辉锂矿更有 优势吗？ （记者 胡玲） 西藏矿业（000762.SZ）11月18日在投资者互动平台表示，扎布耶锂矿凭借资源禀赋和工艺优化，有助 于部分对冲其在运输成本方面的劣势。目前主要产品涵盖电池级和工业级碳酸锂，同时副产氯化钾、铷 铯混盐等。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the price of lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation with potential upward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 86,400 yuan, with a change of 1,480 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 360, down 189 from T - 1, and the open interest was 411, down 173 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 87,840 yuan, up 1,260 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 1,106,011, down 39,318 from T - 1, and the open interest was 536,514, up 7,548 from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 27,508 hands, down 779 from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2511 was - 2,050 yuan, down 430 yuan from T - 1; spot - 2601 was - 3,490 yuan, down 210 yuan from T - 1; 2511 - 2601 was - 1,440 yuan, up 220 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,001 yuan, up 17 yuan from T - 1; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,280 yuan, up 35 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,350 yuan, up 1,050 yuan from T - 1; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan, up 900 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Related Products in the Industrial Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 36,960 yuan, up 355 yuan from T - 1; ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 154,325 yuan, up 1,000 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 84,472 yuan/ton, up 1,244 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,350 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan/ton from the previous working day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,545 tons, an increase of 11 tons from last week. The industry inventory was 120,472 tons, a reduction of 3,481 tons from last week [2]. - **Power Battery Loading**: In October, the domestic power battery loading volume was 84.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 16.5 GWh, accounting for 19.7% of the total loading volume, with a month - on - month increase of 19.8% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 67.5 GWh, accounting for 80.3% of the total loading volume, with a month - on - month increase of 8.6% and a year - on - year increase of 43.7% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

Group 1: Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 3.79%, and the chemical machinery index rose by 8.33% last week, while the chemical pharmaceuticals index decreased by 2.91% [1] - The pesticide and fertilizer index saw an increase of 4.32% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index rose by 3.72%, the oil extraction index increased by 5.63%, and the oil trading index went up by 4.41% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices experienced slight fluctuations downward, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $59.75 per barrel, down 2.02% from October 31 [1] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down 2.21% from October 31 [1] Group 3: Chemical Product Price Changes - The top five chemical products with the highest price increases included folic acid up 20%, nitric acid up 10.43%, sulfur up 9.95%, industrial-grade lithium carbonate up 9.51%, and petroleum coke up 7.23% [1] - The top five chemical products with the largest price decreases included liquid chlorine down 34%, butadiene down 7.69%, trichloroethylene down 6%, styrene-butadiene-styrene copolymer (SBS) down 5.9%, and carbon black down 5.53% [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five chemical companies in the capital market with the highest stock price increases were Qing Shui Yuan up 47.78%, Zhenhua Co. up 37.19%, Fuluo Technology up 33.38%, Unified Co. up 32.93%, and Zhuoyue New Energy up 26.38% [2] - The bottom five chemical companies with the largest stock price decreases were Huidet Technology down 24.78%, Yashichuang Energy down 19.09%, Kaimete Gas down 18.64%, Weike Technology down 8.98%, and Yokogawa Precision down 8.86% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Report's Core View - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 86,015 with a rise of 20, and SMM flat - water copper premium/discount is 15 with a rise of 15 [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21,540 with a rise of 180, and SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount is - 30 with no change; Alumina (Shanxi) price is 2,840 with no change, and Australian alumina FOB average price is 320 dollars with a rise of 3 dollars [1]. - **Lead**: SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 17,250 with a rise of 25, and SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 170 with a fall of 45; Recycled refined lead average price is 17,200, recycled lead average price rises by 25, and the refined - scrap price difference is 50 with no change [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,640 with a rise of 140, and SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 5 with a rise of 10 [1]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin average price is 283,700 with a rise of 900, and SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 700 with a fall of 70; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 271,700 with a rise of 900, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.77% [1]. - **Nickel**: 1 imported nickel average price is 119,825 with a rise of 350, and 1 imported nickel premium/discount to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 400 with no change; SMM electrowon nickel average price is 119,500 with a rise of 350, and SMM electrowon nickel premium/discount average price is 75 with no change; 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122,425 with a rise of 500, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 3000 with a rise of 150 [1]. - **Silicon - related**: Oxygen - permeable 421 (Xinjiang) average price is 9,100 with a rise of 0.55, and its premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 820 with a fall of 150; N - type polysilicon re - feedstock average price is 52.2 with no change, and N - type polysilicon dense material average price is 51 with no change [1]. - **Lithium - related**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,400 with no change, and its premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 1460 with a fall of 2920; Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78,200, the battery - industrial lithium carbonate price difference is 2200 with no change [1]. Analysts - Lang Duo, Chief Analyst, research direction: copper, tin,从业资格证号: F3047773, investment consulting number: Z0014087 [1]. - Liu Dongbo, Senior Analyst, research direction: aluminum, alumina, gold,从业资格证号: F3062795, investment consulting number: Z0015311 [1]. - Wu Jiang, Senior Analyst, research direction: nickel and stainless steel, silver, lithium carbonate,从业资格证号: F3085524, investment consulting number: Z0016394 [1]. - Sun Fangfang, Intermediate Analyst, research direction: lead, zinc,从业资格证号: F03111330, investment consulting number: Z0018905 [1]. - Zhang Xiurui, Intermediate Analyst, research direction: industrial (the description seems incomplete),从业资格证号: F03099436, investment consulting number: Z0021022 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur, sulfuric acid, and lithium battery electrolyte, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the glyphosate industry to enter a recovery phase, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also notes the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the chemical sector, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies benefiting from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [20][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the glyphosate industry for potential recovery, with a focus on companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It highlights the importance of selecting stocks with good competitive dynamics and profitability, particularly in the lubricant additive and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - Significant price increases were noted for sulfur (10.77%), lithium battery electrolyte (10.53%), and sulfuric acid (9.09%) [19]. - Conversely, products like R22 saw a drastic price drop of 60.49%, indicating volatility in the market [19]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the influence of geopolitical events, such as US sanctions on Russia, on international oil prices, which are expected to remain around $65 per barrel [20][24]. - It also mentions the mixed performance of the chemical industry due to varying demand across different sectors, with some areas like lubricants performing better than others [22].