事件： 12月12日，央行公布2025年11月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下降0.1个百分点至6.4%，社融存量 同比持平于8.5%，M1同比下行1.3个百分点至4.9%。 核心观点：M1增速回落源于财政节奏"错位" 11月金融数据中，M1增速回落或源于财政化债节奏错位。 2024年11月，财政部启动大规模化债政策，发 行2万亿元置换债为企业注入流动性，当月及12月单位活期存款环比增速显著高于正常季节性水平。2025 年化债资金发行"前置"，支撑了上半年M1与经济增长，但导致年底M1增速缺乏改善动力，这或是11月 M1增速下滑的主因之一。 此外，M1增速回落或与居民存款下降相关，这直接与居民信贷收缩关联。 10-11月居民信贷需求持续收 缩，同比分别少增5204亿、4763亿元，其中短期贷款合计收缩5144亿元，或令居民活期存款走弱，进而 拖累M1增速。居民信贷与就业紧密相关，11月BCI企业前瞻指数回暖至57.37，但最近12月中枢偏低，或 是居民信贷谨慎的主因。 11月企业贷款仍以短期融资为主，尽管PPI已中枢抬升（从7月-3.6%回升至11月-2.2%），但企业投资仍 持观望态度。 当月企业短期贷款及票据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in M1 growth is attributed to the misalignment of fiscal debt issuance timing, with significant liquidity injections from the issuance of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds in November 2024, which supported M1 and economic growth in the first half of 2025 but led to a lack of improvement in M1 growth by the end of the year [2][8][49] Financial Data Summary - As of November 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%, while the total social financing stock remained flat at 8.5%, and M1 fell by 1.3 percentage points to 4.9% [1][7][47] - The M1 growth decline is also linked to a decrease in household deposits, which is directly related to a contraction in household credit demand, with significant reductions in short-term loans [2][11][38] - In November, corporate loans were primarily short-term, with a slight increase in short-term loans and bill financing, while medium to long-term loans saw a minor decline, indicating a cautious investment attitude among enterprises despite rising PPI [16][49] Social Financing and Government Debt - The growth rate of social financing stock showed signs of recovery, primarily due to a narrowing decline in government debt net financing, which decreased by 1,048 billion yuan year-on-year, significantly less than the 5,643 billion yuan decline in October [3][21][49] - The government debt net financing plan for December indicates a remaining quota of 1.2 trillion yuan, while the financing for December 2024 is projected to be as high as 17,566 billion yuan, which may again pressure social financing growth [21][49] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the Central Economic Work Conference's emphasis on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, future monetary policy may become more proactive [23][49] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools, including potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, to adapt to macroeconomic conditions [23][49] Regular Tracking of Financial Indicators - In November, new credit totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in household loans [4][50] - The structure of deposits showed a year-on-year decrease in household deposits by 120 billion yuan, corporate deposits by 94.7 billion yuan, and fiscal deposits by 190 billion yuan [38][50]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 6.5%[1] - The total social financing stock fell by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 8.5%[1] - M1 decreased by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year to 6.2%[1] Group 2: Deposit Migration Phenomenon - The "deposit migration" phenomenon re-emerged in October, with household deposits decreasing by approximately 770 billion RMB[2] - Non-bank institution deposits increased by about 770 billion RMB, showing a "seesaw" relationship with household deposits[2] - The decline in household deposits may lead to further adjustments in financial asset allocation, impacting bank liability structures[2] Group 3: Loan Trends - In October, corporate loans remained primarily short-term, with short-term loans and bill financing increasing by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 10.0%[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of medium- and long-term corporate loans decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7%[3] - Despite a recovery in PPI to -2.1%, corporate investment attitudes remain cautious, as indicated by a drop in the PMI production expectation index from 54.1 to 52.8[3] Group 4: Social Financing and Government Debt - The decline in social financing growth is primarily due to a decrease in net government bond financing, which fell by 560.2 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - The issuance of 500 billion RMB in local government bonds is expected to provide direct support to social financing in November and December[4] - Two fiscal policies are anticipated to stabilize social financing, aiding economic performance towards the end of the year[4] Group 5: Credit and Monetary Aggregates - In October, new credit amounted to 220 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion RMB, mainly from the household sector[5] - New social financing totaled 815 billion RMB, down 597 billion RMB year-on-year, driven by declines in government bonds and RMB loans[5] - M2 growth fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%, while new M1 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.2%[5]