报告摘要 1、金融时序预测和神经网络模型 针对金融时间序列的预测，经历了从传统计量模型、到传统机器学习模型、再到深度学习模型的三个主要 发展阶段。深度学习模型能够较好适应金融时间序列的非平稳、非线性、高噪声和长记忆性等复杂特征， 是当前主流的金融时序预测方法之一。 神经网络模型（Neural Networks，NN）是一种模仿人脑神经元连接结构设计的机器学习模型，也是深度 学习的基础结构。循环神经网络（RNN）及其变种模型，如长短期记忆神经网络（LSTM），是专为处理 序列数据而设计的网络，具备记忆性和参数共享等优势。LSTM是为解决传统RNN的长期依赖问题而专门 设计的模型，通过引入特有的"门控机制"和记忆单元，不仅有效缓解了传统RNN的梯度消失/爆炸问题，而 且能够过滤序列中的噪声与无关信息，增强对不规则数据的鲁棒性。在进行债券收益率预测时，LSTM的 上述优势使其能够有效处理长时期的时间序列，同时过滤噪声，精准捕捉收益率的动态变化规律。 2、基于堆叠LSTM模型的国债收益率预测 本报告采用了三层堆叠LSTM+Dropout正则化的经典稳健架构来构建十年期国债收益率预测模型，初步探 索深度学习模型在固收量 ...

Core Insights - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced the detailed rollout plan for the highly anticipated FSD V14 version, with the first deployment expected next week, followed by V14.1 and V14.2 in a staggered update approach [1][2] Group 1: FSD V14 Rollout Plan - The initial release of FSD V14 will be an "early wide release," primarily targeting Tesla's internal employees, early testers, and select industry influencers, rather than all vehicle owners [2] - Approximately two weeks after the initial version, Tesla plans to launch FSD V14.1, which is expected to address various errors identified in the initial release and will likely be the first version pushed to the general public [4] Group 2: Technical Enhancements - The FSD V14 update is characterized as a fundamental architectural upgrade, comparable to V12, and is considered the second-largest update in FSD's history, featuring a neural network model with a tenfold increase in parameters [4] - The new version will reduce video data compression rates, enhancing the vehicle's visual clarity and precision in judgment, while also decreasing the frequency of driver monitoring [4] Group 3: Additional Features and Goals - Features previously listed as "coming soon" in the V13.2.9 update, such as audio input recognition for emergency vehicles and further optimization of "phantom braking," are expected to be implemented in the V14 series [5] - However, the highly requested "destination auto-parking" feature was not mentioned by Musk, indicating it may not be included in the initial V14 release [5] - The core objective of the new architecture in V14 is to provide vehicles with driving intuition closer to that of humans, enabling them to handle more complex road scenarios [5]