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欧洲电动车,进退两难
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-14 04:20
Core Viewpoint - The report by the European Federation for Transport and Environment (T & E) highlights that the European automotive industry is at a critical juncture, where the advancement or delay of the "ban on combustion engines" proposal will significantly impact the industry's future direction [1][2]. Industry Impact - The report indicates a projected decline of 5.9% in electric vehicle sales in the EU for 2024, with the threat of tariffs from the Trump administration further complicating the situation [1][2]. - If the EU abandons the 2035 target to ban the sale of combustion engine vehicles, it could result in the loss of 1 million jobs in the automotive sector and a potential investment loss of up to two-thirds in the new energy sector [2][4]. Employment and Economic Contribution - T & E's report supports the continuation of the "ban on combustion engines," suggesting that adherence to the 2035 clean energy goals could lead to the automotive industry contributing an additional 11% to the European economy by 2035 [4]. - If the ban is enforced until 2030, job losses in traditional automotive manufacturing could be offset by the creation of over 100,000 jobs in battery and electric vehicle sectors, with a total of 120,000 jobs expected in the new energy sector by 2035 [5][6]. Battery Manufacturing and Investment - The report emphasizes that ensuring over 900 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity could create over 100,000 new jobs, with the economic output of the battery industry projected to increase fivefold to €79 billion by 2035 [6][14]. - T & E's analysis of 13 electric vehicle projects in Europe indicates that successful implementation could yield an annual production capacity of at least 2.1 million electric vehicles by 2027, meeting the growing market demand [9][12]. Risk Assessment of Projects - The report categorizes projects into low, medium, and high-risk levels based on various criteria, with low-risk projects expected to generate 390 GWh of capacity and create approximately 43,000 jobs [15][16]. - Medium-risk projects could provide 630 GWh of capacity and support 47,500 jobs, while high-risk projects, still in conceptual stages, could yield 410 GWh of capacity and 37,500 jobs, contingent on future policy decisions [15][16]. Regional Insights - Countries like Poland and Hungary show clearer development prospects in battery manufacturing, with Hungary potentially increasing its capacity by 90 GWh, positioning itself as a new hub for the electric vehicle industry in Europe [19][20].
【百人会百人谈】德国汽车工业协会张琳:合资2.0时代,我们在研发端追赶“中国速度”
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 08:00
Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the evolution of Sino-German automotive cooperation, highlighting a strategic shift towards localized R&D by German companies in China, marking the beginning of a "Joint Venture Cooperation 2.0 Era" [1][2]. Group 1: New Trends in Sino-German Automotive Cooperation - Recent years have seen a strategic focus from German companies in China characterized by "In China, for China," with a strong emphasis on localized R&D [2]. - A survey conducted by the German Automotive Industry Association revealed that 70% of member companies plan to increase investments in China, with over 78% focusing on R&D [2]. - The supply chain collaboration has evolved from a "chain" model to a "network" model, involving partnerships with both traditional suppliers and innovative Chinese startups [2]. Group 2: Financial and Investment Initiatives - German companies are not only investing in product development but are also establishing joint ventures and partnerships with promising domestic firms in areas like autonomous driving and chip technology [3][4]. Group 3: Observations on Chinese Companies Entering Europe - The experience of German companies in China over the past 40 years offers valuable lessons for Chinese firms looking to expand into Europe, emphasizing the importance of long-term strategies and patience [5][6]. - The current wave of Chinese companies entering Europe is significantly different from previous attempts, with a broader impact and deeper significance [6]. Group 4: Challenges in European Electric Vehicle Development - The slow progress of electric vehicle development in Europe is attributed to several factors, including inadequate charging infrastructure, high energy prices, and inconsistent policy support across EU member states [8][9][10]. - The EU's ambitious 2035 "ban on combustion engines" goal faces challenges in aligning industry needs with policy objectives [10]. Group 5: Recommendations for Chinese Companies in Europe - Chinese companies should adopt a long-term perspective and strategic consistency when entering the European market, treating it as a significant consumer market [11]. - Compliance with stringent European regulations is crucial, as any product issues can lead to severe reputational damage [11]. - Understanding consumer preferences is essential, as products successful in China may not necessarily meet the demands of European customers [11].