这场博弈的核心问题就是欧盟关于2035年禁售燃油车的法规。2023年春季，欧盟理事会通过了多轮谈判 的结果，要求到2030年，新车碳排放要比2021年减少55%，到2034年再减少50%，2035年必须实现零排 放。这意味着传承百年的内燃机技术将被彻底淘汰，虽然环保组织为此欢呼，但德国却始终持反对态 度。前总理朔尔茨多次表达过抵触情绪。 大家好，我是小锐，今天我们来聊聊欧盟的2035年禁燃令。德国总理默茨近日公开向欧盟发难，利用数 百万工人的就业问题作为筹码，要求重新审视甚至暂停这项法案。11月底，默茨亲自致信欧盟委员会主 席冯德莱恩，明确要求重新考虑这项法案。作为欧盟两年前定下的环保法律，禁燃令的实施关乎欧洲汽 车产业的未来，而默茨的强硬态度背后，是德国汽车工业生死存亡的博弈。 默茨上台后，进一步把反对的声音放到了台面上。在与大众、宝马等车企巨头闭门磋商后，他公开表 示，若由他做决定，2035年完全淘汰燃油车是不可能的。这个立场的底气来源于德国汽车工业的巨大影 响力。德国汽车产业占据了全国GDP近5%的份额，并且直接或间接地为超过700万名工人提供了就业机 会。奔驰、宝马的标志不仅是品牌的象征，更代表了德国 ...

2025年末，位于布鲁塞尔的欧盟总部正经历一场关乎汽车产业未来的激烈博弈。原定于12月10日公 布的汽车行业减排与电动化转型一揽子方案，包括对欧盟2035年"禁燃令"的调整、企业车队电动化配额 以及对小型车细分领域的支持等，因成员国之间的立场分歧而被推迟，主要矛盾点就在于是否要放宽 2035年"禁燃令"。 当前，欧洲汽车行业陷入工厂关闭、裁员加剧的危机之中，该一揽子方案也被视为"救市方案"。然而， 在气候承诺与产业生存的天平上，欧盟各国形成了泾渭分明的阵营：以德国、意大利为首的"缓冲派"呼 吁技术中立与过渡期豁免，法国、西班牙领衔的"坚守派"则认为应坚持2035年零排放目标，以捍卫产业 主导权；同时，北欧国家主张坚守环保底线，不赞同取消或调整"禁燃令"。这场博弈不仅是政策细节的 争论，更是欧洲汽车产业百年积淀与未来方向的深度碰撞，其结果可能会重塑全球汽车产业格局。 德、意等国要求放宽"禁燃令" 围绕是否要调整"禁燃令"，欧盟各国的矛盾进一步激化。 2023年3月，欧盟理事会通过了一项历史性提案：自2035年起，欧盟原则上禁止销售非零排放汽车。具 体而言，与2021年相比，2030年至2034年，欧盟新车（乘用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by the European Federation for Transport and Environment (T & E) highlights that the European automotive industry is at a critical juncture, where the advancement or delay of the "ban on combustion engines" proposal will significantly impact the industry's future direction [1][2]. Industry Impact - The report indicates a projected decline of 5.9% in electric vehicle sales in the EU for 2024, with the threat of tariffs from the Trump administration further complicating the situation [1][2]. - If the EU abandons the 2035 target to ban the sale of combustion engine vehicles, it could result in the loss of 1 million jobs in the automotive sector and a potential investment loss of up to two-thirds in the new energy sector [2][4]. Employment and Economic Contribution - T & E's report supports the continuation of the "ban on combustion engines," suggesting that adherence to the 2035 clean energy goals could lead to the automotive industry contributing an additional 11% to the European economy by 2035 [4]. - If the ban is enforced until 2030, job losses in traditional automotive manufacturing could be offset by the creation of over 100,000 jobs in battery and electric vehicle sectors, with a total of 120,000 jobs expected in the new energy sector by 2035 [5][6]. Battery Manufacturing and Investment - The report emphasizes that ensuring over 900 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity could create over 100,000 new jobs, with the economic output of the battery industry projected to increase fivefold to €79 billion by 2035 [6][14]. - T & E's analysis of 13 electric vehicle projects in Europe indicates that successful implementation could yield an annual production capacity of at least 2.1 million electric vehicles by 2027, meeting the growing market demand [9][12]. Risk Assessment of Projects - The report categorizes projects into low, medium, and high-risk levels based on various criteria, with low-risk projects expected to generate 390 GWh of capacity and create approximately 43,000 jobs [15][16]. - Medium-risk projects could provide 630 GWh of capacity and support 47,500 jobs, while high-risk projects, still in conceptual stages, could yield 410 GWh of capacity and 37,500 jobs, contingent on future policy decisions [15][16]. Regional Insights - Countries like Poland and Hungary show clearer development prospects in battery manufacturing, with Hungary potentially increasing its capacity by 90 GWh, positioning itself as a new hub for the electric vehicle industry in Europe [19][20].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the evolution of Sino-German automotive cooperation, highlighting a strategic shift towards localized R&D by German companies in China, marking the beginning of a "Joint Venture Cooperation 2.0 Era" [1][2]. Group 1: New Trends in Sino-German Automotive Cooperation - Recent years have seen a strategic focus from German companies in China characterized by "In China, for China," with a strong emphasis on localized R&D [2]. - A survey conducted by the German Automotive Industry Association revealed that 70% of member companies plan to increase investments in China, with over 78% focusing on R&D [2]. - The supply chain collaboration has evolved from a "chain" model to a "network" model, involving partnerships with both traditional suppliers and innovative Chinese startups [2]. Group 2: Financial and Investment Initiatives - German companies are not only investing in product development but are also establishing joint ventures and partnerships with promising domestic firms in areas like autonomous driving and chip technology [3][4]. Group 3: Observations on Chinese Companies Entering Europe - The experience of German companies in China over the past 40 years offers valuable lessons for Chinese firms looking to expand into Europe, emphasizing the importance of long-term strategies and patience [5][6]. - The current wave of Chinese companies entering Europe is significantly different from previous attempts, with a broader impact and deeper significance [6]. Group 4: Challenges in European Electric Vehicle Development - The slow progress of electric vehicle development in Europe is attributed to several factors, including inadequate charging infrastructure, high energy prices, and inconsistent policy support across EU member states [8][9][10]. - The EU's ambitious 2035 "ban on combustion engines" goal faces challenges in aligning industry needs with policy objectives [10]. Group 5: Recommendations for Chinese Companies in Europe - Chinese companies should adopt a long-term perspective and strategic consistency when entering the European market, treating it as a significant consumer market [11]. - Compliance with stringent European regulations is crucial, as any product issues can lead to severe reputational damage [11]. - Understanding consumer preferences is essential, as products successful in China may not necessarily meet the demands of European customers [11].