风险提示及免责条款 "新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos：截至11月，过去六个月私营部门就业人数平均每月增加44,000人（与 10月持平）。这是疫情后的经济重启周期中六个月招聘速度最慢的一次。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 就周二晚些时候公布的包含10-11月就业数据的非农报告而言，解读它绝非易事。经济学家们想要弄 清，这份报告究竟会显示本就脆弱的劳动力市场急剧恶化——还是就业市场已显现企稳迹象。 最新的非农报告将包含10月的部分数据和11月的完整数据。而10月失业率将永远不会公布。 2025年前九个月，美国私营部门月均新增就业7.2万人。按历史标准来看，这一数字相当疲软，而美联 储主席鲍威尔表示，这一数据甚至可能高估了就业创造规模。 失业率 美联储今年已三次降息，旨在阻止失业率进一步上升。 由于在创纪录的43天政府停摆期间被迫休假，美国劳工统计局（BLS）的工作人员未能从家庭调查中收 集到所需的全部数据。 劳工统计局的就业预估数据来自另一项独立且自动化程度更高的企业调查，该调查的可靠性更强。 尽管如此，10月和11月的就业预估肯定会因联邦员工的延迟离职而失真。特朗普政府在春季向他们提供 了买断离职福利，而这些福利直到秋季才正式生效。 停摆期间，数十万联邦员工也处于失业状态，这同样可能扭曲数据结果。 私营部门就业是关键 评估这份就业报告的最佳方式是观察私营部门招聘的变化， ...

Core Insights - Private-sector employment in the United States increased by 42,000 jobs in October, indicating a modest rise in job creation according to the ADP National Employment Report [1] Employment Data - The report highlights that the addition of 42,000 jobs reflects a steady, albeit slow, growth in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller expresses interest in the Fed Chair position and suggests a potential interest rate cut in July due to concerns over private sector employment weakness [1][2]. - Waller emphasizes that the performance of the private sector is not as strong as perceived, based on the June non-farm payroll report which showed a slowdown in private sector job growth and a deceleration in wage growth [2]. - Waller indicates that the Fed should lower borrowing costs before the labor market deteriorates further, aligning with his previous speech in New York [2]. Group 2 - Waller's name is mentioned as a potential successor to current Fed Chair Powell, whose term ends in May next year, and he states he would accept the nomination if offered [4]. - He clarifies that President Trump has not contacted him regarding the position, labeling it as an "irrelevant hypothesis" while stressing the importance of the next chair gaining the trust of financial markets [5]. - Waller warns that a lack of credibility in the next chair could lead to rising inflation expectations and higher interest rates, a principle validated globally [5].

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Waller is the need for the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut in July due to concerns over weak private sector employment, which he believes is not as healthy as commonly perceived [1][3] - Waller's comments were influenced by the June non-farm payroll report, which indicated a slowdown in private sector job growth and a deceleration in wage growth, despite a slight decrease in the overall unemployment rate [3] - Following Waller's statements, the dollar index fell by 0.39%, and U.S. Treasury yields also declined slightly, indicating a more aggressive stance on rate cuts than the market consensus, which anticipates a cut in September [1] Group 2 - Waller has expressed interest in succeeding Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, stating he would accept the position if offered, although he noted that there has been no communication from President Trump regarding this matter [4] - He emphasized the importance of the next chair gaining the trust of financial markets, warning that a lack of credibility could lead to rising inflation expectations and higher interest rates, contrary to the desired outcome of lower rates [5]