美国12月"小非农"ADP就业人数与11月JOLTs职位空缺将于今晚21:15、23:00先后公布，提前为本周五非 农报告检验就业市场成色。数据有望显示劳动力市场整体仍具韧性，为美联储1月按兵不动提供支撑。 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 就周二晚些时候公布的包含10-11月就业数据的非农报告而言，解读它绝非易事。经济学家们想要弄 清，这份报告究竟会显示本就脆弱的劳动力市场急剧恶化——还是就业市场已显现企稳迹象。 最新的非农报告将包含10月的部分数据和11月的完整数据。而10月失业率将永远不会公布。 2025年前九个月，美国私营部门月均新增就业7.2万人。按历史标准来看，这一数字相当疲软，而美联 储主席鲍威尔表示，这一数据甚至可能高估了就业创造规模。 失业率 美联储今年已三次降息，旨在阻止失业率进一步上升。 由于在创纪录的43天政府停摆期间被迫休假，美国劳工统计局（BLS）的工作人员未能从家庭调查中收 集到所需的全部数据。 劳工统计局的就业预估数据来自另一项独立且自动化程度更高的企业调查，该调查的可靠性更强。 尽管如此，10月和11月的就业预估肯定会因联邦员工的延迟离职而失真。特朗普政府在春季向他们提供 了买断离职福利，而这些福利直到秋季才正式生效。 停摆期间，数十万联邦员工也处于失业状态，这同样可能扭曲数据结果。 私营部门就业是关键 评估这份就业报告的最佳方式是观察私营部门招聘的变化， ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar may react to the upcoming non-farm payroll report, which could reinforce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The employment report is expected to set the tone for the market in the coming weeks [1] - There is a strong risk that a significant decline in the dollar may not surpass the initial reaction to the data, as rate cut expectations have already been priced in by the market [1] Group 2: Currency Projections - The mid-term target for the euro against the dollar is maintained at 1.20, with expectations that the exchange rate will gradually and slowly approach this level [1]

Core Insights - The significant downward revision of employment growth for May and June is highlighted as the "real news" in the recent non-farm payroll report [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Williams emphasizes that the adjustments in employment figures for May and June are more critical than the current non-farm payroll data [1]

Macro and Policy Level - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May is expected to rise from 48.7 to 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [1] - The second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled to take place in Istanbul, which may impact global geopolitical dynamics, particularly in energy and commodity markets [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI for May increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3, indicating continued expansion overall [2] - The US trade deficit for April is projected to narrow from $140.5 billion to $117.3 billion, reflecting a potential easing of the "export rush" effect [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to continue lowering interest rates in June, with market focus on future rate guidance amid economic growth concerns in the Eurozone [4] Financial Data - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for May are set to be released [5] - The US will release various economic indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a decrease in job additions from 177,000 to 130,000 [7] Industry Level - CATL is set to launch monthly options for its H-shares, with the first contracts available on June 2, 2025 [6] - Nintendo will globally launch the Switch 2, featuring significant upgrades in hardware performance and gaming experience compared to its predecessor [8] Company Level - Xiaomi Group held its 2025 Investor Day, where management shared strategic directions and business developments, including a visit to its automotive factory [9] - Broadcom reported Q2 fiscal year 2025 earnings, projecting revenue of $14.9 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, and AI semiconductor revenue of $4.4 billion, indicating strong growth potential [10]

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll report does not reflect the impact of "Tama Reform," indicating deeper concerns about the labor market and economic stability [1][9]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data - The February non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below the expected 160,000, with the previous value at 125,000. The federal government employment decreased by 10,000, while the private sector maintained a steady job growth of 140,000, consistent with the average over the past two years [3]. Economic Indicators - Nominal wage growth and total income in the household sector remain resilient, suggesting that consumer spending power is still intact, which reduces the risk of a sharp economic slowdown [4]. Immediate Concerns - The unemployment rate rose from 4.01% to 4.14%, and the labor force participation rate fell from 62.6% to 62.4%. This divergence indicates a potential slowdown in labor demand, despite the overall labor market appearing stable [5]. - The proportion of multiple jobholders has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, indicating that lower-income individuals are seeking additional income sources due to high prices. The recovery of prime-age employment has stagnated or declined, suggesting a balance between labor supply and demand [6][7]. - The broadest unemployment rate (U-6) has significantly increased, reflecting a potential weakening in labor demand as more individuals are taking part-time jobs for economic reasons [8]. Government Employment Impact - The non-farm report does not capture the effects of the "Tama Reform," particularly the end of the first round of federal government downsizing, which allowed employees to apply for paid leave until September 30, 2025. Approximately 77,000 employees, or 3.8% of federal workers, opted for this program, which is below the initial target of 5%-10% [9][10]. - The ongoing second round of downsizing plans requires agencies to submit layoff plans by April 14, 2025, which may lead to significant changes in employment data as government layoffs are not easily offset by private sector job growth [10]. Political and Economic Outlook - The increasing divide in political perceptions regarding Trump may exert additional pressure on non-farm employment figures. The Federal Reserve is expected to focus on monetary tactics rather than a cohesive monetary policy moving forward [11].