Core Viewpoint - The dollar may react to the upcoming non-farm payroll report, which could reinforce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The employment report is expected to set the tone for the market in the coming weeks [1] - There is a strong risk that a significant decline in the dollar may not surpass the initial reaction to the data, as rate cut expectations have already been priced in by the market [1] Group 2: Currency Projections - The mid-term target for the euro against the dollar is maintained at 1.20, with expectations that the exchange rate will gradually and slowly approach this level [1]

美联储威廉姆斯：5月和6月就业增长的异常大幅下调才是周五非农报告中的"真正新闻"。 ...

3、周一，俄乌第二轮谈判将于6月2日在伊斯坦布尔举行 俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫表示，俄乌双方将在土耳其伊斯坦布尔举行第二轮直接谈判。此次谈判是继此前 恢复对话后的又一重要进展，可能对全球地缘政治格局产生影响，尤其是对能源、大宗商品和区域经 济稳定带来潜在波动。" 4、周二6月3日和周四6月5日，标普全球将分别公布中国5月财新制造业PMI和服务业PMI。 国家统计 局数据显示，中国5月官方制造业PMI回升0.5个百分点至49.5，非制造业PMI比上月下降0.1个百分点 至50.3，仍高于临界点，总体延续扩张。 点击蓝字，关注我们 宏观及政策层面 1、周一6月2日，美国公布5月ISM制造业指数 经济学家普遍预计，5月ISM制造业指数将由上月的48.7升至49.2，从近5月低点回升，但仍处荣枯分 界线下方。 2、周一，美联储理事沃勒在2025年韩国央行国际会议上就经济前景发表讲话。 5、周二2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比参与一场问答活动；美联储主席鲍威尔在一场 活动上致开幕词。 6、周二韩国举行大选。 7、周三6月4日，2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比参与一场问答活动；2027年FOMC票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll report does not reflect the impact of "Tama Reform," indicating deeper concerns about the labor market and economic stability [1][9]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data - The February non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below the expected 160,000, with the previous value at 125,000. The federal government employment decreased by 10,000, while the private sector maintained a steady job growth of 140,000, consistent with the average over the past two years [3]. Economic Indicators - Nominal wage growth and total income in the household sector remain resilient, suggesting that consumer spending power is still intact, which reduces the risk of a sharp economic slowdown [4]. Immediate Concerns - The unemployment rate rose from 4.01% to 4.14%, and the labor force participation rate fell from 62.6% to 62.4%. This divergence indicates a potential slowdown in labor demand, despite the overall labor market appearing stable [5]. - The proportion of multiple jobholders has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, indicating that lower-income individuals are seeking additional income sources due to high prices. The recovery of prime-age employment has stagnated or declined, suggesting a balance between labor supply and demand [6][7]. - The broadest unemployment rate (U-6) has significantly increased, reflecting a potential weakening in labor demand as more individuals are taking part-time jobs for economic reasons [8]. Government Employment Impact - The non-farm report does not capture the effects of the "Tama Reform," particularly the end of the first round of federal government downsizing, which allowed employees to apply for paid leave until September 30, 2025. Approximately 77,000 employees, or 3.8% of federal workers, opted for this program, which is below the initial target of 5%-10% [9][10]. - The ongoing second round of downsizing plans requires agencies to submit layoff plans by April 14, 2025, which may lead to significant changes in employment data as government layoffs are not easily offset by private sector job growth [10]. Political and Economic Outlook - The increasing divide in political perceptions regarding Trump may exert additional pressure on non-farm employment figures. The Federal Reserve is expected to focus on monetary tactics rather than a cohesive monetary policy moving forward [11].