Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the competition for rare earth elements, which are crucial for technology and strategic dominance, particularly in the context of the ongoing US-China trade war [1][3] - China has announced export controls on rare earths, not as a ban but to improve its export management system, reflecting its actual needs [3][11] - The US heavily relies on China for rare earths, with a significant demand for gallium, estimated at 30 to 50 tons annually, and the inability to produce it domestically in the short term [5] Group 2 - Russia has adopted a neutral stance amid escalating US-China trade tensions, benefiting economically from increased agricultural exports to China, which grew at an average annual rate of nearly 40% from 2014 to 2020 [7] - The ongoing military conflict in Ukraine has intensified, with both sides targeting critical infrastructure, and the US has deepened its involvement by providing intelligence support to Ukraine [9] - China's strategic resilience is evident in its response to US pressure, emphasizing its strengths in key areas like rare earths and manufacturing, which are irreplaceable [11][13]

Group 1 - China's export controls on strategic minerals such as gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, and rare earths are aimed at preventing illegal outflows and smuggling, while ensuring compliance and supply chain stability [1][3] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths, with the semiconductor, automotive, and military industries facing significant challenges due to this dependency, making any resolution painful for the U.S. [3][5] - The Chinese government has implemented strict controls on rare earth exports, with China accounting for over 60% of global rare earth production and controlling 92% of processing capacity, indicating a near-monopoly position [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. government is considering significantly reducing tariffs on Chinese imports in hopes of negotiating concessions from China, including the lifting of rare earth export restrictions [1][5] - The production of advanced military equipment in the U.S., such as the F-35 fighter jet, is at risk due to potential disruptions in rare earth supply, which is critical for performance enhancement [5][7] - The rare earth issue transcends trade disputes, representing a struggle for technological dominance and geopolitical influence, which will significantly impact the global industrial chain [7]