2025年3月，全国碳排放权交易市场正式将钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业纳入覆盖范围，标志着中国碳市场 从"发电行业单一试点"进入"多高耗能行业协同监管"的战略性阶段。全国碳市场扩容倒逼钢铁、水泥、 铝冶炼等高耗能产业加快低碳转型和技术升级。 同年8月，《中共中央办公厅 国务院办公厅关于推进绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意见》发布， 首次从中央层面针对推进全国碳市场建设做出系统部署，释放了清晰稳定的政策信号，为中国碳市场的 长远发展锚定方向，更加明确了绿色是大宗商品市场发展的底色。大宗商品龙头企业开始积极探索环 境、社会和公司治理（ESG）可持续发展评估体系。 鼓励发展产能预售和订单交易 2025年4月，商务部印发的《加快推进服务业扩大开放综合试点工作方案》明确提出，鼓励依托现有商 品现货交易场所开展大宗现货交易，推进符合实体经济发展需要的产能预售、订单交易等交易模式创 新，建设符合国际惯例的大宗商品场外交易市场。此举不仅赋予这两种交易模式明确的政策合规性，更 凸显了其在服务实体经济中的创新价值。在此政策引导下，大宗商品交易平台及地方交易场所积极探索 产能预售与订单交易模式的创新实践。 大宗商品现货市场持续迎来政策 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 碳市场周报 日期 2026 年 01 月 09 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、碳市场周度概况 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international price of aluminum is rising significantly, driven by strong demand as a substitute for copper, alongside concerns about electricity supply for aluminum smelting due to the increasing power consumption of AI data centers [2][4][9]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month futures for aluminum have shown a clear upward trend, surpassing $3,000 per ton on January 2 and reaching a peak of $3,138 per ton, the highest since April 2022 [4]. - The primary factor for the price increase is the significant rise in copper prices, which have seen a projected increase of 42% by 2025 due to supply-demand tensions [4]. - Investment funds are shifting towards aluminum, which has seen a more modest annual increase of 17% compared to copper [4]. Group 2: Electricity Consumption and Supply Concerns - Producing one ton of aluminum requires approximately 15,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 3 to 4 average households [6]. - Concerns about electricity supply are becoming a reality, with companies like Rio Tinto considering shutting down the Tomago aluminum smelter in Australia due to rising electricity costs, which account for 40% of the country's aluminum production [6]. - South32 announced the suspension of operations at its smelter in Mozambique starting March 2026 due to significant increases in electricity supply contract costs [6]. Group 3: Competition for Electricity and Future Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data centers' electricity consumption will more than double by 2030 compared to 2024, creating a competitive disadvantage for aluminum smelting plants [8]. - Major tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft are willing to pay over $100 per megawatt-hour for electricity, while aluminum smelting operations typically secure long-term contracts at around $40 per megawatt-hour [8]. - The environment for the aluminum smelting industry is becoming increasingly challenging, with predictions that aluminum prices could reach $3,200 per ton by 2028, and concerns that maintaining existing smelting operations may become difficult [8].

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-08 供应扰动忧虑继续，基本金属维持强势 有⾊观点：供应扰动忧虑继续，基本⾦属维持强势 交易逻辑：美联储独立性受损及弱美元预期仍在发酵；12月10-11日中央 经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，12月31日财政部确认 26年第一批625亿元两新补贴资金拨付；元旦期间，美国打击委内瑞拉， 整体上看，宏观面预期有反复，但稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，铜陵有色 公告米拉多铜矿二期延期；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。 初端开工环比继续走弱；终端，伴随着两新支持资金到位，家电、汽车和 消费电子等终端消费或有望改善，远期供需仍有收紧预期。整体来看，中 短期，弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，现实弱需求影响有限，供应 扰动担忧继续推高基本金属，继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内 潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋 紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资 ...

2025年，温室气体自愿减排项目方法学制定发布工作加快推进，共发布油田气回收利用、盐沼植被修复 等12项方法学，市场迎来快速扩容。 同时，自愿减排项目及减排量登记工作扎实开展，截至2025年12月底，已登记自愿减排项目33个，减排 量1776.37万吨。核证自愿减排量累计成交量921.94万吨，成交额6.50亿元，全年交易均价为70.76元/ 吨。注册登记系统累计开户6106家，涵盖项目业主、重点排放单位、金融机构等法人组织。 责任编辑：刘础琪 记者近日从生态环境部获悉：2025年，全国碳市场运行平稳有序，市场活力稳步提升。碳排放权交易市 场重点排放单位碳减排意识持续加强，配额清缴完成情况保持在高水平，温室气体自愿减排交易市场支 持领域进一步扩大，市场迎来快速扩容。全国碳市场推动全社会实现低成本减排功能不断显现。 2025年，纳入碳排放权交易市场配额管理的重点排放单位共计3378家，其中发电行业重点排放单位2087 家，钢铁行业重点排放单位232家，水泥行业重点排放单位962家，铝冶炼行业重点排放单位97家，市场 共运行243个交易日。截至2025年12月底，全国碳排放权交易市场配额累计成交量8.65亿吨，累 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-06 供应扰动忧虑继续，基本金属大幅走高 有⾊观点：供应扰动忧虑继续，基本⾦属⼤幅⾛⾼ 交易逻辑：美联储独立性受损及弱美元预期仍在发酵；12月10-11日中央 经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，12月31日财政部确认 26年第一批625亿元两新补贴资金拨付；元旦期间，美国打击委内瑞拉， 整体上看，宏观面预期有反复，但稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，铜陵有色 公告米拉多铜矿二期延期；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑较强。 初端开工环比继续走弱；终端，伴随着两新支持资金到位，家电、汽车和 消费电子等终端消费或有望改善，远期供需仍有收紧预期。整体来看，中 短期，弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，现实弱需求影响有限，供应 扰动担忧继续推高基本金属，继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内 潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋 紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应收缩预期较强，铜价延续⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：成本⽀撑有效性较弱，氧化铝价仍旧承压。 铝观点：资⾦情绪乐观，铝价⼤幅上⾏。 铝 ...

（原标题：山东政商要情（12.29—1.4）） 1，山东发布2026年促进经济"稳中求进、提质增效"政策清单 2025年12月31日，山东省人民政府网站正式发布《2026年促进经济"稳中求进、提质增效"政策清单（第 一批）》（下称《政策清单》）。《政策清单》共包括五个方面28项政策举措，其中20项政策为奖励补 助类，资金全部用于支持优质企业发展和项目建设，让企业更有获得感，进一步激发市场活力。 巩固服务业向好态势被置于首要位置。根据《政策清单》，山东将重点支持新纳统以及"准规上"企业， 从山东省服务业发展引导资金中安排5000万元，对符合条件的企业在建项目给予支持；安排1.5亿元， 对现代服务业项目给予补助，其中，安排9000万元围绕人工智能、工业互联网、科技研发、检验检测、 质量认证等重点领域，支持高端生产性服务业企业项目建设，安排6000万元聚焦服务业骨干行业，支持 互联网批发、专业市场、多式联运、仓储物流等重点领域优质项目。同时，进一步扩大服务业发展引导 资金规模，加力支持平台型企业、"两业"融合类项目。 提示：政策集成供给是近年来山东省委、省政府稳经济的创新举措、有力抓手。2025年山东省先后出台 三 ...

Group 1: Aluminum Oxide - The supply surplus in the aluminum oxide market remains unchanged, with previous prices significantly below spot prices, stimulating warehouse inventory digestion. However, as prices rise at the end of the month, delivery profits will reduce warehouse risks [2][13] - The market concentration for aluminum oxide is high, and without substantial supply reductions, prices lack sustained upward momentum. Current raw material reserves at electrolytic aluminum plants are sufficient, and expectations for winter storage are low [2][13] - The overseas supply of bauxite remains excessive, with the end of the Guinea referendum and the resumption of Axis mine production reducing risk levels. Although bauxite prices are approaching the marginal cost, there is still slight downward potential [2][13] Group 2: Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply-demand imbalance remains largely unchanged, with high-frequency data indicating a transition from peak to off-peak consumption. Downstream processing product operating rates and output are declining, leading to an increase in aluminum ingot social inventory [3][14] - The absolute price, driven by macroeconomic factors, has significantly increased, suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in a continuous expansion of spot discounts [3][14] - Despite the lack of positive fundamental factors, the macro outlook remains optimistic, with domestic policies supporting new infrastructure and major projects, alongside expectations of monetary easing [3][14] Group 3: Bauxite - In November 2025, China's bauxite imports reached 15,108,975 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1,342,917 tons and a year-on-year increase of 22.34%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 185.96 million tons, up 29.23% year-on-year [4][15] - The latest port inventory of imported bauxite is 26.021 million tons, with a decrease of 2 million tons in December. The inventory at aluminum oxide plants is 24.16 million tons, down 370,000 tons month-on-month [4][15] - The resumption of Axis mine shipments in January will support future supply, maintaining the oversupply situation in the market. The first quarter long-term contract price is set at CIF $66 per ton, down $5 from the fourth quarter of 2025 [4][15] Group 4: Aluminum Production and Costs - In December 2025, China's aluminum oxide production was 7.52 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.79%. The net import of aluminum oxide in November was 62,000 tons, with a cumulative net export of 1.39 million tons from January to November [5][17] - The weighted cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry is currently 16,138 yuan per ton, with a profit margin of 6,322 yuan per ton [20][22] - The total social inventory of aluminum reached 5.171 million tons, with an increase of 230,000 tons in December. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants increased by 140,000 tons, while warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons [6][18] Group 5: Downstream Consumption - The operating rate for cables is 56.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 3.5%. The operating rate for aluminum plates is 65.9%, down 4.4%, and for aluminum foils, it is 65.5%, down 0.7% [9][21] - In November 2025, China's net aluminum product exports were 466,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8%, while cumulative net exports from January to November were 4.737 million tons, down 13% year-on-year [10][21] - The export of aluminum products was 289,000 tons, up 1.73% year-on-year, with cumulative exports from January to November reaching 2.949 million tons, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year [10][21]

Group 1: Metal Sector - Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 44.12 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 75.75 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 25.82 to 15.04[9] - The company has a comprehensive production capacity of 305,000 tons of green aluminum and 140,000 tons of alumina, positioning it as a leader in the green aluminum sector[18] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to 23% by 2024, maintaining a strong ROE of 15.6%[24] Group 2: Construction Materials - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) is forecasted to have a net profit of CNY 24.16 billion in 2024, growing to CNY 36.58 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 18.60 to 12.29[9] - China National Materials (002080.SZ) is expected to see its net profit rise from CNY 8.92 billion in 2024 to CNY 25.87 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 68.38 to 23.57[9] Group 3: Transportation Sector - SF Holding (002352.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 101.70 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 124.78 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio declining from 18.82 to 15.34[9] - The Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (601816.SH) is expected to see a slight increase in profit, with a PE ratio of 1973.38 in 2024, dropping to 1758.94 by 2026[9] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Senqcia (002984.SZ) is forecasted to have a net profit of CNY 21.86 billion in 2024, with a PE ratio of 10.03, expected to rise to CNY 21.26 billion by 2026[9] - Yara International (000893.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 9.50 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 39.34 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 46.64 to 11.27[9]

近日，山东省出台《关于推进绿色转型健全碳足迹管理体系的行动方案》，致力于从源头到末端建 立健全的碳足迹管理体系。 《行动方案》强调，建设省级碳足迹因子背景数据库，推进产品碳足迹标识认证，参与碳足迹标准 体系建设，提升碳计量保障能力，探索产品碳足迹分级管理制度，推动企业碳排放数据应用。在东营、 威海、青岛、烟台、济宁、枣庄等市开展轮胎产品碳足迹标识认证，在滨州、聊城、烟台、潍坊等市开 展电解铝产品碳足迹标识认证。 《行动方案》明确指出，推动在绿色建材试点、绿色工厂建设中采信产品碳足迹认证和分级评定结 果，支持符合条件的产品碳足迹标识认证企业参与政府质量奖、好品山东、"泰山品质"认证等评选。 （记者 杨成 ） 《行动方案》明确提出，深化青岛、东营、烟台、聊城等城市试点，并鼓励自贸区、开发区等先行 先试。在钢铁、轮胎、纺织、铝冶炼等典型行业，聚焦产业链上下游深化碳足迹试点。到2027年，完成 典型行业300个产品碳足迹核算；到2030年，完成600个产品碳足迹核算，形成约100个成熟的本地化产 品碳足迹因子数据集。 ...