期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2026 年 3 月 碳排放月报 专业研究·创造价值 全国 CEA 交易进入淡季 核心观点 根据上海环境能源交易所数据，截至到 2026 年 2 月 25 日，全国 碳市场碳排放配额(CEA)收盘价为 81.00 元/吨，较上月同期持平， 较去年同期下跌 9.75%。近 30 个交易日内，全国碳排放配额的平均 成交量为 46.3 万吨，上期平均成交量为 192.8 万吨，可见近期碳排 放现货市场活跃度下降，成交量均值月环比减少 146.5 万吨。 从能源价格来看，截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 报价 727 元/吨，较上月底上涨 36 元/吨，较 2025 年底下跌 36 元/吨。近 期，虽然电力和非电行业用煤需求均表现疲弱，但受春节煤矿集中 休假和国内重要会议带来的安监影响，主产区煤矿产量阶段性收缩， 叠加印尼 RKAB 扰动引发进口担忧，短期内动力煤价格保持偏强走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 能源消费来看，2025 年 1~12 月，全国天然气表观消费量累计 4265.50 亿立方米，同比去年偏多 5.00 亿立方米 ...

高盛闭门会-美国关键矿产战略和政策解读，关键瓶颈在电 力铝极度短缺 20260227 摘要 美国关键矿产政策转向国际合作，通过部长级会议等形式，强调"全面 市场方法"和"全供应链视角"，旨在与盟友及伙伴协同，保障美国工 业基础与国防体系安全供给。 VOLT 项目旨在通过公私合作建立关键矿产储备，企业预付款采购，贸 易机构管理，参考美国地质调查局清单筛选矿种。与国家国防储备和战 略石油储备相比，VOLT 更偏向私营部门主导的商业参与模式。 边境调节价格机制旨在阻止低价进口，将成本转嫁给下游买家，由美国 贸易代表办公室牵头谈判。关键在于避免需求萎缩，推动主要制造业经 济体实施相似机制，并确保监管框架不允许低标准产品绕道进入市场。 国防授权法案的 DEFY 条款限制从特定外国实体采购稀土永磁材料，国 防承包商需在 2027 年前满足要求。稀土元素与永磁材料仍是本届政府 的重点领域。 美国铝行业面临挑战，原铝产量仅能满足需求的 16.16%。即使密苏里 冶炼厂重启，仍将面临缺口。钢铁领域贸易政策可作为主要解决方案， 铝领域贸易政策只能作为部分解决方案，核心约束在能源。 Q&A 自 2025 年 6 月以来，在 232 ...

2026年02月27日 (原油) gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 昨日原油盘面剧烈震荡,从波动归因看,行情完全受消息面主导。盘中因伊朗强硬表态一度暴力拉 升,随后阿曼称谈判取得重大进展,油价快速回吐涨幅。伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示双方虽然仍存在一 些分歧，但在许多问题上的意见已经趋于一致。双方将在下周进行技术性会谈。此外，有消息称美 军最大航母福特26号已离开位于希腊南部克里特岛苏达湾的海军基地,前往中东。 美伊谈判核心分 歧仍存,潜在冲突隐患难消,市场对地缘消息仍极度敏感,油价波动率预计维持高位。 隔夜伦铜尾盘收低，沪铜夜盘窄幅震荡，国内铜价交投区间稳定在密集均线上方。英伟达季度业绩 超预期,但关联股价短线再遇抛压。特朗普访华前,倾向对中国关税态度相对缓和,需求端主要关 注关税相对低执行期，对国内出口的影响。节后首周，内外铜库存延续增量势头，国内SMM社库增至 53.17万吨，伦铜新奥尔良仓库持续入库。SMM现铜昨报101795元，上海贴水235元。市场仍可能权 衡节后旺季消费强度，但当下全球交易所铜显性库存高。建议延续近月合约跨期反套，单边铜价仍 认为有波段调整以吸引买盘的可 ...

宏观专题 "双碳"政策有望提力加速 2026 年 02 月 25 日 【宏观观点】 2026 年，"双碳"政策有哪些抓手？ 从近期政策总结后续"双碳"政策的主要抓手，我们认为主要有三方 面：零碳工厂的全国推行、碳排放权市场的扩围、以及产品碳足迹因 子数据库的建设。 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王笑笑 证书编号：S1160525020006 证券分析师：方诗超 证书编号：S1160525070005 相关研究 《地方两会系列（一）——经济增长目标》 2026.02.13 2026.02.02 《纵深推进全国统一大市场建设的方向、 举措、效果推演——挖掘经济潜能系列一》 2026.01.25 《2026 年经济会有开门红吗》 2026.01.05 《延续稳中有进发展态势——11 月经济 数据解读》 2025.12.30 宏 观 研 究 / 宏 观 专 题 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 《特&马"将相和"，马斯克链王者归来》 2026 年，"双碳"政策有何不同？ 二十届四中全会以来，"双碳"政策相关部署加速推出，助力"十五五" 冲刺实现碳达峰。我们认为，2026 年"双碳"政策主要可能有两方面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a notification detailing the responsibilities and obligations of key emission units in the carbon emission trading market, which will include the power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries by 2026, as part of China's dual carbon goals [1][2]. Group 1: Key Emission Units and Coverage - By 2026, the carbon market will include approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of carbon emissions, which accounts for over 60% of the national carbon emissions [2]. - The eight key industries, including power generation, steel, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, paper, and aviation, contribute to about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions [2][5]. Group 2: Compliance Requirements - The four core industries (power generation, steel, cement, aluminum smelting) must complete a full compliance process, including listing, monthly verification, annual reporting, and quota management [2][4]. - The notification outlines specific deadlines for key emission units, such as the publication of the 2027 key emission unit list by October 31, 2026, and the submission of greenhouse gas emission reports by March 31, 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Additional Industry Management - Industries like petrochemicals and chemicals are required to submit annual emission reports but are not yet involved in quota trading and compliance [5]. - Companies in these sectors with annual emissions of 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent must participate in the annual reporting process, with the same reporting deadline of March 31, 2026 [5][6]. Group 4: Future Preparedness - Industries not yet included in the carbon market should focus on preparing for future compliance by enhancing their reporting and verification capabilities [6]. - It is recommended that these companies establish carbon asset management departments and develop carbon reduction plans to ensure readiness for future inclusion in the carbon market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China has issued a notification regarding the management of the national carbon emission trading market for 2026, focusing on key emission units in the power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, with specific guidelines for data management, quota allocation, and compliance [1][19]. Group 1: Key Emission Unit Management - Provincial ecological environment departments are required to establish a list of key emission units for 2027, including those with annual direct emissions of 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent [20][21]. - The list of key emission units must be published by October 31, 2026, through the national carbon market management platform and provincial websites [21][2]. Group 2: Data Quality Management - Provincial departments must implement data quality management for greenhouse gas emissions in the specified industries, following the technical specifications set by the Ministry [3][21]. - By December 31, 2026, a data quality control plan must be developed for the key emission units [4][21]. - Monthly carbon emission data must be stored electronically within 40 days after each month ends [5][22]. Group 3: Reporting and Verification - Key emission units must submit their 2025 greenhouse gas emission reports by March 31, 2026 [6][23]. - Technical audits of these reports must be completed by June 30, 2026, for the power generation sector, and by July 31, 2026, for the steel, cement, and aluminum sectors [7][23]. Group 4: Quota Allocation and Compliance - Quotas for carbon emissions will be pre-allocated to key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum sectors by April 10, 2026, and to the power generation sector by June 30, 2026 [8][25]. - By September 20, 2026, the final allocation of quotas based on verification results must be completed [9][26]. - Compliance with the quota must be fulfilled by December 31, 2026 [10][27]. Group 5: Management of Other Key Industries - Other industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, paper, and civil aviation with emissions of 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent must also report their emissions [11][28]. - Reports from these industries must be submitted by March 31, 2026, and verified by December 31, 2026 [12][28]. Group 6: Strengthening Implementation - Local ecological environment departments are urged to enhance their management capabilities and training related to carbon emission data quality and quota compliance [30][31]. - Strict enforcement of regulations regarding carbon market data quality and compliance is emphasized to prevent fraudulent activities [31].

事件：据外媒消息，越南陈红军冶金携手黄城基础设施投资与发展股份公司组成联营体，计划斥资50亿美元，在 越南林同省打造一座大型煤电-铝冶炼综合体项目，规划120万吨电解铝，2030至2031年投产。 点评： 【国金金属|铝】从越南扩产项目再论海外供给释放难度大，再call旺季将近的电解铝板块 电力问题亟待解决：该项目规划建设一座2000兆瓦煤电厂，在全球AI建设浪潮里要和数据中心抢电力设备，价格 和交付周期都在节节攀升。 若难以自备电，印尼、印度、越南的公网电力供给不足，缺电&电价贵。 和印尼诸多外资项目都面临中国合作方难觅的难题：此次合作的黄城基础设施投资与发展股份公司，虽拥有18年 运营历史，但其核心业务集中在房地产投资与开发领域，工业领域运营经验十分有限，近期仍主要聚焦于河内东 英的集中社会住房项目开发。 板块高景气+高股息：低供应+低库存+需求有望超预期的逻辑没有发生变化，还有潜在减产带来的价格端巨大期 权。 铝的金融属性也比较小，还有股息率的保护，继续看好旺季景气度和价格表现，主升浪的Beta行情随时可能前 移！ #再次印证海外扩产周期长，且项目延期是常态：即使兑现，越南新项目从提出到落地也需5-6年 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 2026年12月31日前，省级生态环境主管部门组织发电、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业重点排放单位按时足额 完成2025年度碳排放配额清缴。 新华财经北京2月9日电生态环境部办公厅2月9日公布《关于做好2026年全国碳排放权交易市场有关工作 的通知》。其中明确，2026年4月10日前，省级生态环境主管部门向钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业重点排放 单位预分配2025年度碳排放配额。2026年6月30日前向发电行业重点排放单位预分配2025年度碳排放配 额。 2026年9月20日前，省级生态环境主管部门基于2025年度核查结果，按照年度配额总量和分配方案核定 2025年度发电、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业重点排放单位应发放配额量，并向全国碳排放权注册登记机构 书面报送相关数据表，进行核定配额的注册登记。9月30日前，省级生态环境主管部门向发电、钢铁、 水泥、铝冶炼行业重点排放单位分配2025年度碳排放配额。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the vibrant development and festive atmosphere across China as the Spring Festival approaches, with various regions exploring new development paths based on their unique characteristics [1] - The traditional brand Xianghe Bobo Shop is innovating to align with contemporary tastes, revitalizing traditional pastries for the modern era [3] - Xianghe is evolving from a small handmade shop to a modern production base, enhancing its marketing strategies and product offerings to inject new vitality into its century-old craftsmanship [5] Group 2 - Gansu Province's Weiyuan County is focusing on establishing a benchmark for ice and snow tourism, aiming to continuously release the "hot effect" of winter resources [7] - The "Weishui Seeking Source · Ice and Snow Secret Realm" tourism route in Weiyuan County integrates various activities such as snow play and tea gatherings, promoting group purchase discounts to stimulate winter cultural tourism consumption [9] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, Longxi County is concentrating on four key industries: traditional Chinese medicine processing, aluminum smelting and deep processing, equipment manufacturing, and new energy and digital economy, to advance its new industrialization process [11]

Group 1 - The article highlights the vibrant development and cultural richness across China as the Spring Festival approaches, showcasing local businesses adapting to modern tastes while preserving traditional craftsmanship [1] - The traditional brand Xianghe Bobo Shop is innovating by modernizing its production and sales methods, transitioning from a small handmade shop to a modern production base and online sales [1] - The transformation of Xianghe represents a blend of heritage craftsmanship and contemporary vitality, emphasizing the importance of innovation in maintaining relevance in today's market [1] Group 2 - Weiyuan County is promoting a winter tourism route called "Weishui Xinyuan · Ice and Snow Secret Realm," which integrates various activities like snow play and tea gatherings, along with group purchase discounts to stimulate winter tourism consumption [3] - Since the winter of 2025, Weiyuan County aims to establish itself as a benchmark for ice and snow tourism in Gansu Province, leveraging its cold resources to generate economic benefits [4] Group 3 - Longxi County is focusing on four key industries: traditional Chinese medicine processing, aluminum smelting and deep processing, equipment manufacturing, and new energy and digital economy, to advance its new industrialization process during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] - Longxi County has set an industrially driven development strategy, emphasizing the strengthening of industrial chains and the acceleration of key project construction to foster a modern industrial system [6]