Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price is supported by the Middle East situation and shows a strong trend. The uncertain production in the Middle East and the continuous rise in global energy prices have led to increases in LME aluminum, Shanghai aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum prices. The short - term aluminum price is volatile but tends to be strong, and the medium - term focus is on the Middle East situation and spot demand [3][4] Summary According to the Content Market Situation - The Middle East situation is still unclear, and market sentiment is weak. Today, crude oil has risen sharply, chemicals have all increased, pure benzene and methanol have reached new highs, caustic soda has dropped significantly, and silver and gold have increased. Non - ferrous metals have rebounded intraday, with aluminum and tin rising sharply [3] Aluminum Price - LME aluminum, Shanghai aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum prices have all increased. Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,725, and the spot price was 24,530, with a spot discount of - 195 points. This week, Shanghai aluminum has risen sharply, and the spot discount has narrowed to - 100 yuan, and spot transactions have improved significantly [3] Inventory - This week, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has slightly decreased, the alumina inventory has decreased, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the LME inventory has decreased slightly. The spot demand in both the domestic and overseas markets has improved [3] Technical Analysis - Today, US crude oil and LME aluminum have risen sharply. LME aluminum is trading around $3,441. Shanghai aluminum has risen sharply and closed at 24,725, with a strong technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum have both increased, and market sentiment is optimistic [4] Market Outlook - In the short term, the aluminum price has risen sharply due to the intense conflict in the Middle East, soaring energy prices, and the suspension of aluminum smelting in the Middle East. However, the poor global economic outlook exerts pressure, and the market fluctuates greatly, with a short - term volatile and strong trend. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and spot demand [4] Data Monitoring - From March 24th to March 30th, the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated, the spot premium and discount have changed, the LME aluminum - futures and spot price difference has increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract has also fluctuated, reaching 7.39 on March 30th [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of recent attacks on the aluminum industry, specifically focusing on the electrolytic aluminum production capacity affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran's attacks on facilities in Bahrain and the UAE. Core Insights and Arguments - **Bahrain Aluminum Company**: The company has a total production capacity of 1.62 million tons. A facility was attacked on the 28th, and the company is currently assessing property damage [1] - **Impact of Shipping Disruptions**: Prior to the attacks, the company had declared "force majeure" due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a production reduction of approximately 20% [2] - **Emirates Global Aluminium**: The Tawiila plant of Emirates Global Aluminium suffered significant damage from the attacks, with damage assessments still ongoing. This plant was projected to produce 1.6 million tons of ingots in 2025 [2] - **Global Production Impact**: The attacks have affected over 5% of global electrolytic aluminum production capacity [1] - **Recovery Timeline**: Even if the geopolitical situation stabilizes, the recovery period for electrolytic aluminum production is expected to take 6 to 12 months, assuming adequate supply of electricity and raw materials [2] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their implications for the aluminum supply chain could lead to further volatility in aluminum prices and availability in the global market [1][2]

Summary of Aluminium Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the global aluminium market, particularly the impact of supply disruptions and demand changes on aluminium prices and production forecasts [1][4][5]. Key Points Supply Dynamics - **Disrupted Supply**: The global primary aluminium supply is expected to decrease by 1% due to disruptions in the Middle East and the shutdown of the Mozal smelter in Mozambique, which has been placed under care and maintenance [4][8]. - **Middle East Production**: The Middle East accounts for 9% of global aluminium production. Key smelters like Qatalum (Qatar) and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) are reducing output, with Qatalum operating at 60% capacity and Alba initiating a controlled shutdown of 19% of its capacity [4][8]. - **Iranian Output**: A 30% reduction in Iranian aluminium output is anticipated due to damage to energy infrastructure [4][8]. Demand Forecast - **Lower Demand**: The forecast for global primary aluminium demand growth has been reduced to +0.1% YoY for 2026, down from +0.9% previously, reflecting a significant slowdown from last year's +2.7% [5][6]. - **GDP Impact**: A 1 percentage point slowdown in global GDP growth is expected to result in a 1.9 percentage point slowdown in global aluminium demand growth, leading to a reduction of approximately 600kt in demand forecasts for 2026 [4][5][13]. Price Projections - **Price Forecast Adjustment**: The Q2 2026 LME aluminium price forecast has been raised to $3,200 from $3,100, reflecting tighter inventory cover and supply disruptions [4][10]. - **Potential Price Upside**: A complete halt to aluminium production in Bahrain, UAE, and Qatar could lead to a significant deficit, potentially pushing the average LME price up to $3,400 in a severely adverse scenario [6][20]. - **Price Constraints**: Factors limiting price upside include speculative positions already being long and expected production growth from China, which could reduce demand switching from copper to aluminium [9][20]. Market Balance - **Surplus Expectations**: The global aluminium market is expected to shift into a surplus of 550kt in 2026, down from a previous forecast of an 800kt surplus, with a notable deficit of ~900kt anticipated in Q2 2026 [8][16]. - **Inventory Levels**: Global aluminium inventory is projected to reach a historical low of 45 days of demand, which is expected to support prices around $3,000 [8][10]. Future Outlook - **Long-term Supply Growth**: Beyond 2026, a wave of new supply from Chinese investments is expected to push the market back into surplus, with forecasts indicating a surplus of 1.8Mt by 2028 [9][34]. - **Price Decline Anticipation**: Prices are expected to decline in 2027-2028 as inventory rebuilds and new supply comes online [9][34]. Additional Insights - **Speculative Positions**: The market is currently positioned very long, with net speculative length at the 95th percentile compared to the past five years [9][23]. - **Chinese Production Growth**: An anticipated production growth of 670kt from China this year could surprise to the upside if aluminium prices remain elevated [9][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the analysis of the aluminium market, highlighting the interplay between supply disruptions, demand forecasts, and price projections.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which has led to sharp fluctuations in oil prices, inflation concerns, and changes in market risk preferences [4][7][9]. - Different industries show varying trends and characteristics. For example, in the financial market, the stock index is affected by multiple factors such as international relations and corporate news; the bond market is under pressure due to inflation expectations; the precious metal market is in a sideways consolidation state; in the commodity market, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products all have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4][7]. 3. Summary of Each Industry Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: News includes preliminary consensus on some issues between China and the US, expected short - term Iran war, a large - scale AI computing power supply agreement between Meta and Nebius, and the acquisition of Yiu Choi Securities by Ant Group [2]. - **Strategy**: Amid the US - Iran conflict, global risk preferences are disturbed, oil prices are rising, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are weakened, and US bond yields are rising rapidly. It is recommended to focus on the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. In January - February, China's industrial added value, social consumer goods retail sales, and fixed - asset investment showed different trends. The central bank conducted 1373 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 888 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in January - February has improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures declined, while COMEX gold and silver futures rose. The US GDP in Q4 2025 was revised down, and inflation data remained high. Trump's remarks and the US Treasury Secretary's statement affected oil price expectations [8]. - **Strategy**: The gold price is in a sideways consolidation state. High inflation and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts make it difficult for precious metal prices to break out of the range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Market sentiment improved, the US dollar index declined, and copper prices rebounded. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the basis price increased [11]. - **Strategy**: The Middle East conflict and high oil prices suppress sentiment, but the resource attribute provides support. The supply and demand of copper are expected to improve marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose and then fell. The inventory of aluminum in the domestic and international markets changed, and the basis price of aluminum ingots in the East China region expanded [13]. - **Strategy**: The overseas supply of aluminum is threatened, and the domestic inventory is expected to peak and decline. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The zinc price declined. The inventory of zinc in the domestic and international markets and the basis price changed [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The zinc industry is in a weak state, with high domestic social inventory. The zinc price may break through downward [16]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The lead price declined. The inventory of lead in the domestic and international markets and the basis price changed [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of lead are complex. The short - term lead price is supported, but there is still a possibility of further decline [17]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: The nickel price declined slightly. The cost of raw materials increased, and the price of nickel iron rose [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of nickel have improved, but due to geopolitical risks and high inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate [19]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: The tin price declined slightly. The inventory decreased, and the supply and demand were in a weak state [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot price of lithium carbonate declined, and the futures price rose [22]. - **Strategy**: The terminal demand for lithium carbonate is strong, but the supply is uncertain. The inventory is being reduced, and the price is expected to be affected by subsequent events [22]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose. The basis price, overseas price, and inventory changed [23]. - **Strategy**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production lead to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel price declined slightly. The spot price and inventory changed [25]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is moderately released, and the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The inventory and trading volume changed [27][28]. - **Strategy**: The cost is supportive, the demand is expected to improve, and the price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The inventory and trading volume of the futures market and the spot price changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The real - estate data is still weak, and the demand for steel is limited. The fundamentals of steel are in a neutral - weak state, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The iron - ore price declined slightly. The spot price and basis price changed [32]. - **Strategy**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, and the demand decreases. Affected by the negotiation and geopolitical conflicts, the price is expected to fluctuate widely [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose slightly. The spot price and basis price changed [34]. - **Strategy**: The prices are affected by the energy sentiment premium. In the short term, the demand is restricted, but there is a possibility of upward impulse. In the long term, the coking - coal price is expected to rise [36][37]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The glass price declined, and the soda - ash price declined slightly. The inventory and trading volume of the futures market and the spot price changed [38][39]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is supported by cost and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The soda - ash market is expected to be strong and fluctuate, and it is necessary to focus on the demand and inventory [38][40]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined slightly. The spot price and basis price changed [41]. - **Strategy**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is bullish. The future market trend is affected by the overall market and cost factors [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon price rose slightly, and the polysilicon price declined. The spot price and basis price changed [44][46]. - **Strategy**: The industrial - silicon supply and demand are weak, and the cost provides support. The polysilicon fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [45][47]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The market is volatile, and the views of bulls and bears are different. The operating rate of tire enterprises and inventory data changed [49][50]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk and set stop - losses. Consider opening or holding positions for hedging [52]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The crude - oil price rose, and the prices of refined oil products also rose. The inventory of refined oil products in Europe changed [53]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish positions for crude oil, widen the price difference between different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the cross - regional spread of INE - WTI [54]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of methanol changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The current methanol price already includes geopolitical premiums, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [56]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea changed [57]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Pay attention to the short - term demand support when the substitution value reaches the extreme [58]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory data changed [59][60]. - **Strategy**: The profit of styrene non - integrated production is neutral to high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [61]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory data changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are affected by the Iran issue. The price is expected to rebound, but be cautious of risks [63]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol price rose. The supply, demand, and inventory data changed [64]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Be cautious of risks due to excessive short - term price increases [65]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose. The supply, demand, and inventory data changed [66]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult for PTA to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Pay attention to risks due to excessive short - term price increases [67]. - **p - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rose. The supply, demand, and inventory data changed [68]. - **Strategy**: The p - xylene load is expected to decrease, and it will enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of risks due to excessive short - term price increases [69]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The PE price rose. The spot price, basis price, supply, demand, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The PE valuation has room to decline. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz increases [72]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The PP price rose. The spot price, basis price, supply, demand, and inventory data changed [73]. - **Strategy**: The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction shifts from cost to production mismatch [74]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: The hog price fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price in different regions changed [76]. - **Strategy**: The short - term spot price is expected to be weak and stable. It is recommended to short on rebounds for the near - term contract and wait and see for the far - term contract [77]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with a slight increase. The supply and demand situation is normal, and the inventory is stable [78]. - **Strategy**: The supply is still high, and the price increase space is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds for the near - term contract and pay attention to the cost support for the far - term contract [79]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: The import volume of soybeans, the predicted production of Brazilian soybeans, and the export data of US soybeans changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [81]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Indonesia's policies, the production and export data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory data of domestic and international oils and fats changed [82]. - **Strategy**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the short - term oil price is strong, and it is recommended to be bullish on oils and fats in the medium term [83]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The production, sales, and inventory data of sugar in China, India, Thailand, and the predicted global sugar production changed [84]. - **Strategy**: The raw - sugar price is at a discount, and there is a possibility of sugar production reduction in Brazil. The domestic sugar price may have a rebound space, and it is recommended to go long on pullbacks [85]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: China increased the import quota, and the predicted global cotton production, consumption, and the export data of US cotton changed [86]. - **Strategy**: The short - term increase in the import quota is negative for the Zhengzhou cotton price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on the downstream operating rate [87].

Core Viewpoint - Alba has initiated a phased shutdown of three production lines, affecting 19% of its total capacity, due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has intensified the volatility in the global aluminum market [1][4][7]. Group 1: Production Shutdown Details - The shutdown involves the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd reduction lines, collectively accounting for 19% of Alba's total annual capacity of 1.6 million tons [4]. - The company aims to protect existing raw material inventory and ensure the continued operation of the remaining production lines [4][5]. - Alba's management has characterized this action as a "controlled and safe operational measure" to maintain operational stability under limited raw material conditions [5]. Group 2: Impact of Regional Instability - The shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is critical as it is a key channel for aluminum product exports and the import of essential raw materials like alumina [7]. - Other companies in the region, such as Qatar and Hindalco Industries, are also facing production challenges due to supply chain disruptions [7]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have created a highly uncertain timeline for supply chain recovery, with management actively seeking alternative supply channels [8]. Group 3: Market Implications - The aluminum market has reacted to these developments, with LME aluminum prices reaching their highest levels since 2022 due to tightening supply expectations [1]. - The crisis has highlighted the inherent vulnerabilities in the global aluminum supply network, which relies heavily on the coordination of bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting [8]. - Concerns over global aluminum supply shortages are reflected in market pricing, indicating a significant impact on the industry [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run strongly in the short term, with geopolitical risk premiums still present and prices remaining at a high level [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [1] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price was strong at a high level. Due to the uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Bahrain Aluminium has started phased shutdowns, while local Qatari aluminum plants have suspended production cuts, and the market is still pricing in geopolitical risks [1] - Currently, domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, and prices are stable. Fluctuations in shipping costs and rising oil prices have led to an increase in the intended transaction price, and market sentiment is cautious [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9%, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend. The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%, and the demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong [2] - The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises remained stable at 72.9%. Although there is a recovery in traditional peak - season demand and short - term support from battery foils, the Middle East situation has affected air - conditioner exports and restricted the further increase in air - conditioner foil production [2] - Although domestic social inventories are increasing, due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain still exists, and price volatility has increased. Overseas prices are strongly supported, while domestic prices have weaker upward momentum, and the Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is causing significant disruptions in the global oil market, with oil prices surging due to the halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil supply [1][7] - Alba, the largest single-site aluminum smelter globally, has begun phased production cuts, affecting 19% of its annual capacity, due to supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict [2][3] Group 2: Alba's Operational Adjustments - Alba has initiated a controlled shutdown of its first three electrolysis series to manage raw material supply issues and maintain operational continuity [2][3] - The company aims to optimize its existing raw material inventory and ensure the stability of its remaining operational series through strategic resource allocation [2][3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - International oil prices have seen significant increases, with WTI crude rising over 47% to $99.31 per barrel, and Brent crude up nearly 42% to $103.89 per barrel, driven by the conflict and its impact on oil infrastructure [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates amid rising inflation pressures and signs of economic weakness due to the conflict's effects on oil prices [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report As of February 25, 2026, the closing price of the national carbon market carbon emission allowance (CEA) was 81.00 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous month and down 9.75% compared to the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume of national carbon emission allowances was 463,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.465 million tons from the previous period, indicating a decline in the activity of the carbon emission spot market [3][32][68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on the work related to the national carbon emission trading market in 2026, including strengthening the management of the list of key emission units, data quality, quota allocation and settlement, and the management requirements for other key industries [9]. - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially came into effect on January 1, 2026. The EU's setting of a significantly high default value for China's product carbon emission intensity and plans to expand the product coverage range are unfair and discriminatory, and China firmly opposes these practices [30][31]. 3.2 National Carbon Market Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) As of February 25, 2026, the closing price of CEA was 81.00 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous month and down 9.75% compared to the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume was 463,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.465 million tons, indicating a decline in market activity [32]. 3.3 Carbon Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Energy Price - As of February 25, 2026, the price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port showed an increase compared to the end of the previous month but a decrease compared to the end of 2025. The pithead price of steam coal also showed a similar trend. The coke price remained flat compared to the end of the previous month but decreased compared to the end of 2025. The LNG ex-factory price index decreased compared to the previous period, and the European natural gas spot price decreased compared to the end of the previous month and the end of 2025 [35][36][37]. 3.3.2 Energy Consumption In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative apparent consumption of natural gas in the country was 426.55 billion cubic meters, 500 million cubic meters more than the previous year; the cumulative apparent consumption of coke was 496.7758 million tons, 15.706 million tons more than the previous year; the total apparent consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel was 376.7113 million tons, 6.2874 million tons less than the previous year [40]. 3.3.3 Domestic Carbon Emission Structure China's total carbon emissions have exceeded 10 billion tons, accounting for about one-third of the world's carbon emissions. The largest source of carbon emissions in China is the "Electricity, Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply" industry, followed by the "Ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing" industry. In terms of energy types, carbon emissions mainly come from the consumption of coal, followed by fuel oil and natural gas [44][51]. 3.3.4 Total Social Electricity Consumption In 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 1,0368.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents' living contributed 50% to the growth of electricity consumption. The slowdown in the growth rate of the secondary industry's electricity consumption was in line with China's economic structural transformation [54][55]. 3.3.5 Power Generation Structure In December 2025, the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The total power generation of four types of clean energy accounted for 32.3% of the total power generation, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the thermal power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size showed a year-on-year negative growth for the first time since 2014, indicating a turning point in the development model of the power industry [58][60][61]. 3.4 Conclusion As of February 25, 2026, the closing price of CEA was 81.00 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous month and down 9.75% compared to the same period last year. The average trading volume decreased month-on-month, indicating a decline in market activity. The price of steam coal showed a short-term strong trend. In 2025, the apparent consumption of natural gas and coke increased, while the total consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel decreased. In December 2025, the total social electricity consumption and the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased year-on-year, and the proportion of clean energy power generation increased [68][69][71].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in U.S. critical mineral policy towards international cooperation, emphasizing a "comprehensive market approach" and "full supply chain perspective" to ensure the security of the U.S. industrial base and defense systems [1][2]. Core Insights - The VOLT project aims to establish critical mineral reserves through public-private partnerships, focusing on private sector-led commercial participation [1]. - The U.S. aluminum industry faces significant challenges, with primary aluminum production only meeting 16.16% of demand, highlighting the need for more efforts to reduce foreign dependency [1][12]. - The DEFY clause in the National Defense Authorization Act restricts procurement of rare earth permanent magnet materials from specific foreign entities, with compliance required by 2027 [8]. Summary by Sections U.S. Critical Mineral Policy Changes - The most notable change in U.S. critical mineral policy is the transition from a unilateral "America First" approach to a more international and cooperative strategy, as evidenced by the participation of 54 countries and the EU in a recent ministerial meeting [2]. Aluminum Industry Challenges - The new aluminum smelting plant project is significant, with a capacity 2.5 times that of the current largest smelter, representing a crucial step in technological innovation and domestic production growth [3][13]. - The U.S. aluminum sector's production is insufficient to meet demand, necessitating additional efforts to enhance domestic supply [12][14]. Strategic Initiatives - The VOLT project proposes a $12 billion public-private partnership plan to address challenges faced by U.S. manufacturers following the implementation of rare earth export controls [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of enhancing the effective supply of recycled aluminum through improved sorting technology and export controls [15]. Supply Chain and Compliance - The report emphasizes the need for U.S. defense contractors to comply with the DEFY clause, which restricts reliance on foreign sources for critical materials [8]. - The inventory levels of critical materials are currently low, with concerns about supply chain disruptions due to export controls [9]. Future Directions - The U.S. strategy for diversifying the rare earth supply chain over the next 2 to 5 years focuses on midstream cooperation and the development of secondary materials [10]. - The report identifies the need for significant investment in new smelting capacity to achieve a domestic supply rate of approximately 40% to 50% [13][14].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - The crude oil market was highly volatile yesterday, driven by news. Prices soared due to Iran's tough stance and then dropped as Oman reported progress in negotiations. The core differences in the US - Iran talks remain, and oil price volatility is expected to stay high [2] Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The Geneva talks between the US and Iran ended, with the Iranian foreign minister saying progress was made. Uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs remain, and precious metals await clearer direction from risk events [3] Copper - LME copper closed lower overnight, while SHFE copper traded in a narrow range. After - holiday copper inventories increased. It is recommended to continue the inter - month reverse spread for near - month contracts, and there may be a band adjustment for the single - side copper price [4] Aluminum - SHFE aluminum continued to fluctuate overnight. Post - holiday inventory accumulation will last for a long time. The domestic fundamentals are weak in the short term, but overseas supply reduction expectations support the price, so it is treated as a range - bound market for now [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the movement of SHFE aluminum. Due to macro - drivers and high aluminum prices, the seasonal spread between cast aluminum alloy and SHFE aluminum will be weaker than in previous years [6] Alumina - The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, improving the oversupply situation. However, new capacity is approaching, and the rebound of the futures price is limited. Alumina will mainly fluctuate within a range recently [7] Zinc - Downstream industries are gradually resuming work. The TC is at a low level, and the supply increase of overseas mines in 2026 is less than expected. The fundamentals are mixed, and SHFE zinc lacks a clear directional driver in the short term, trading in a narrow range at a high level [8] Lead - The average price of SMM 1 lead is 16,550 yuan/ton, with a discount to the near - month contract. Supported by cost, SHFE lead fluctuates at a low level. Post - holiday downstream consumption has not fully recovered, and there is no room for demand growth. The import window is open, and overseas surplus pressure is transmitted, so the upward momentum is insufficient [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel continued to rebound. It is affected by the rebound of the metal market and the expected reduction of Indonesian ore production, but the high spot inventory is a concern. The short - term trend is unclear, and it is advisable to view it as a range - bound market [10] Tin - The tin market is dominated by domestic capital. Although there is the theme of Indonesia's ore export ban, the policy is mainly to strengthen compliance. In traditional off - seasons, Indonesian supply is stable. The demand side has mixed signals. It is advisable to patiently follow the change of the premium of the call option with an exercise price of 450,000 yuan [11] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, with active trading. The halt of lithium carbonate exports from Zimbabwe has raised supply concerns. The downstream has sufficient inventory and is in a wait - and - see mood. Technically, it is oscillating strongly, and risk management should be noted [12] Industrial Silicon - The prices of some industrial silicon grades decreased slightly. Downstream demand is weak, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with more focus on the supply change in the north [13] Polysilicon - The output of polysilicon decreased significantly in February, and downstream silicon wafer production cuts exceeded expectations. Inventory continued to accumulate, and the short - term market trend may be weak [14] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures fluctuated overnight. Supply is strong, and domestic port inventories are at a historical high. Demand shows marginal improvement, but the supply surplus pressure is greater, suppressing the price. The relaxation of real - estate policies has improved market sentiment [16] Coke - The coke price declined during the day. Coking profit is average, and daily production decreased slightly. Inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is general. The market has expectations for policies, and the price may have upward momentum [17] Coking Coal - The coking coal price declined during the day. The volume of Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1,477 vehicles. The total inventory of coking coal increased significantly. The market has expectations for policies, and the price may have upward momentum [18] Manganese - The price of manganese increased significantly during the day. The increase of South Africa's electricity price has little impact on manganese ore mining. The spot price increased slightly, and the futures price has limited downside. The market is likely to fluctuate strongly, with expectations for policies [19] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon increased slightly during the day. The power cost in some regions decreased, and the supply changed little. Demand has resilience, and the market is likely to fluctuate strongly, with expectations for policies [20] Group 2: Chemicals Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot prices of shipping lines failed to hold up in early March. Near - month contracts will be under pressure if the off - season expectation is fulfilled. Far - month contracts have limited pricing for the resumption of shipping, and it may be an opportunity to short if the US - Iran conflict significantly drives up far - month prices [21] Asphalt - The asphalt production plan in March increased month - on - month but is at the lowest level in the past four years year - on - year. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the single - side price of BU follows the movement of crude oil [22] Urea - Urea spot prices are strong. After - holiday demand is expected to increase, and the short - term market is likely to fluctuate strongly, but the increase may be limited by the previous high [23] Methanol - Methanol prices fell overnight. Supply is expected to contract, and the coastal market may gradually reduce inventory. It is advisable to consider buying the positive month - spread at a low price [24] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices weakened. The industry accumulated inventory during the Spring Festival. Downstream demand is in the recovery stage, and cost support is insufficient. Caustic soda is running weakly, with weak demand and insufficient cost support [25] PX and PTA - PX and PTA prices are weak due to the lack of positive factors. PX may be over - allocated in the first half of the year, but further strengthening requires upstream support and downstream improvement. PTA follows PX, and the month - spread can be positively arbitraged at a low price [26] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol supply has shrunk, but demand is low, and port inventory is rising. The supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure due to capacity growth [27] Short - fiber and Bottle - grade PET - Short - fiber processing margins may improve, and the absolute price follows the raw material. Bottle - grade PET processing margins are recovering, but there is long - term capacity pressure. It is advisable to consider positive month - spread arbitrage in the medium term [28] Glass - Glass prices are weak. Post - holiday inventory accumulation is obvious. The industry profit is poor, and capacity has been compressed. It is advisable to pay attention to the demand recovery after the holiday and consider buying at a low price [29] Rubber - International crude oil prices fluctuated violently. Natural rubber supply is in the low - production period, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and rubber inventory is rising. Demand is recovering, but the market sentiment is weak, so it is advisable to wait and see [30] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weak. Post - holiday inventory accumulation is obvious. Supply remains high, and downstream demand is mainly consuming pre - holiday inventory. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see; in the long term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal - Night - session soybean meal futures continued to fluctuate, and US soybean prices weakened. Trump's 10% tariff policy is in effect, and the US biodiesel policy will be announced by the end of March. In China, oil mills have not fully resumed production, and demand recovery takes time [32] Edible Oils - Overnight, edible oils fluctuated strongly. The US government's plan to re - allocate obligations to large refineries boosted US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil exports and production decreased month - on - month, and high inventory is expected to continue in the short term [33] Domestic Soybean - The domestic soybean futures contract continued to rise. Some high - quality soybean prices increased due to post - holiday restocking. Imported soybeans are strong, which has a spill - over effect on domestic soybeans. It is advisable to pay attention to soybean policies and spot performance [34] Corn - The prices at northern ports increased. The supply in Shandong is gradually recovering, and some purchase prices decreased. US corn prices are oscillating. It is advisable to follow the grain - selling progress in the Northeast, state - reserve auction information, and futures capital trends [35] Live Pigs - The live pig futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The spot price is in the second bottom - testing stage, and the live pig inventory is high. The far - term support comes from the expectation of capacity reduction [36] Eggs - The far - month egg futures prices continued to decline. The spot price has dropped significantly since February. It is advisable to buy eggs on dips after the premium narrows [37] Cotton - Cotton prices rose and then fell. US cotton is strong, and the planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease. Domestic commercial inventory is being well digested, and supply is expected to be tight. It is advisable to operate cautiously after the short - term decline [38] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. India's sugar production is progressing fast, while Thailand's is slow. In China, the market focuses on the expected difference in production. The short - term sugar price faces pressure [39] Apples - Apple futures prices oscillate. The sales of low - quality apples are slow, while high - end products sell well. The market focuses on demand, and the high acquisition price and strong惜售sentiment may affect inventory reduction [40] Wood - Wood futures prices oscillate. The spot price is stable. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is low during the Spring Festival. Low inventory supports the price, and it is advisable to wait and see [41] Pulp - Domestic pulp port inventory is at a high level. Overseas pulp prices are strong, providing cost support. However, demand is general, and downstream prices and profits are poor. The medium - term trend is likely to be range - bound [42] Group 4: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares traded in a narrow range yesterday, with computing hardware concept stocks active. The performance of stock index futures contracts was divided. The RMB exchange rate hit a three - year high, which may support the stock index to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern. It is advisable to take partial profits when the index approaches recent highs [43] Treasury Bonds - On February 26, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase and MLF operations, resulting in a net回笼and a net投放 respectively. It is advisable to short the 30 - year treasury bond futures and long the 10 - year treasury bond futures [44]