最近直播，碰到最多的问题是茅台到底能跌到什么样的价格？说实话，我并不知道这酒能跌到什么样的 价格，关于这种内容分析，受影响的因素太多，没法得出结果。我分析预测对了，只能说明我运气好， 并不能证明我有多懂。分析错了，反而是一件很正常的事。 恰恰要注意的是，经常想这个问题，问这个问题的人，其实你们把自己陷入到一场赌局当中。我赌茅台 会跌到700元，到了700元的时候我买一点屯，说不定以后能涨价。 其实很多奢侈品的逻辑也是赌，我花20万买一幅画，赌它以后能够增值。如果我把这一幅画当做一件简 单的装饰品来买，这种情况要么我有钱，要么我有病。其实更多人买这幅画买的是这幅画的价值。 其实这也是人性，很多商品买卖玩的是人性。茅台酒放在茅台瓶子里能卖1500元，放在矿泉水瓶里卖 300元都有人嫌贵。因为会品酒，知道酒质好坏的人是少数，但知道茅台品牌的人有很多，茅台可以用 于办事，还可以二手交易。 渠道库存大，消费不振，这些都影响了茅台销售。面对这个局面，茅台也想过解决方法。从公关层面， 过去头部酒企公关大领导，现在对于头部酒企，做这样的事有意义，但不属于有前瞻性的战略。 很多人都知道，国内下一个时代是科技时代，所以茅台拜访了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of Wang Jianlin and Wanda Group, highlighting the company's debt crisis and the shift from the real estate era to the technology era, emphasizing the need for adaptation to new market conditions [5][27]. Wanda's Debt Crisis - Wang Jianlin was recently subjected to a high consumption restriction due to a court ruling related to a 186 million yuan enforcement case, exposing Wanda's ongoing debt issues [6][9]. - Wanda Group has 10 enforcement cases with a total amount of 5.262 billion yuan, and 47 equity freeze cases affecting core subsidiaries, indicating severe financial distress [9][10]. - The company has been forced to sell over 30 Wanda Plaza locations to survive, with significant transactions planned for 2025, including a 50 billion yuan deal involving multiple investors [10][11]. Historical Context - The turning point for Wanda began in 2017 when it faced regulatory scrutiny over its overseas investments, leading to a liquidity crisis and a reported debt exceeding 600 billion yuan [10][11]. - Wang Jianlin attempted to recover by selling assets and restructuring, but the transition to a lighter asset model has faced challenges, particularly in maintaining control over properties [15][16]. Business Segments Struggling - Wanda's commercial management has struggled with its transformation, remaining heavily invested in real estate, which has become a liability rather than an asset [15][16]. - Wanda Real Estate, initially intended to support commercial management, has become a burden due to high debt levels and slow sales recovery [18]. - The cultural and investment sectors have also suffered, with significant losses in film and media investments, further straining the company's financial health [19]. Market Trends and Shifts - The article notes a broader market trend where traditional real estate companies, referred to as "old enterprises," are declining as technology-driven companies gain prominence [21][22]. - The shift from a real estate-driven economy to a technology-focused one is evident, with "old enterprises" struggling to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and market conditions [22][25]. - The success of companies like Wantong Development, which have pivoted towards technology and innovation, contrasts sharply with Wanda's struggles, highlighting the necessity for adaptation in the current economic landscape [24][25]. Conclusion - The narrative of Wang Jianlin's fall from grace serves as a cautionary tale for businesses that fail to adapt to evolving market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of innovation and flexibility in the face of changing economic tides [27][28].