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美联储降息25基点,9比3的分裂投票,暴露了比通胀更危险的危机
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 17:16
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the third cut of the year, with Wall Street's reaction being relatively calm [1] - The voting results showed a significant division with 9 votes in favor and 3 against, indicating a potential end to the Fed's era of consensus [3][5] - The dissenting votes came from the Chicago and Kansas City Fed presidents, who expressed concerns about premature rate cuts potentially reigniting inflation [3][5] Group 2 - The current division within the Fed is notable as it openly displays disagreements, contrasting with previous meetings where differences were typically unified [5][8] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by a lack of reliable economic data due to a 43-day government shutdown, leading to reliance on less comprehensive private data sources [10][12] - The Fed's Chairman Powell acknowledged that the employment market might be "overestimated," indicating uncertainty in the current economic indicators [15][17] Group 3 - The nature of inflation has evolved, with new challenges such as "tech inflation" arising from competition for resources in the AI sector, complicating traditional monetary policy responses [21][23] - The competition among tech companies for GPUs and data centers is driving up costs, which may not be effectively managed through interest rate adjustments [25][27] - The Fed is caught in a dilemma between raising rates to control inflation and supporting technological investments deemed critical for national security [28][30] Group 4 - The recent rate cut appears to be a cautious compromise amid internal disagreements and unreliable data, reflecting a "walking a tightrope" approach by the Fed [32] - The evolving nature of inflation and the internal conflicts within the Fed suggest that future policy decisions may be increasingly challenging [34]