证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*深度报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 投资策略研究 β隐匿下的"平衡木"策略——基于景气度线索以及行业趋势 从 2025Q1 数据看，全 A 营收增速延续回暖趋势，非金融石油石化板块同 比增速为 0.65%，较 2024Q4环比改善 1.3pct；分板块看，创业板以 2025Q1 同比 7.89%的营收增速领跑，北证营收增速环比跳升 8.08pct 至 5.81%，而 科创板受光伏行业拖累，2025Q1 营收同比下滑 7.24%，为 2022 年有数据以 来首次负增。盈利端改善更为明显，全 A 归母净利润同比增速由 2024Q4 的 -0.89%转正至 2025Q1 的 1.49%，其中创业板净利润同比激增 18.02%（较 2024Q4 环比改善 30.9pct），但科创板净利润同比跌幅扩大至-28.6%，反映 科技领域高研发投入与短期业绩的阶段性矛盾；主板则通过降本增效，销售 净利率从 2024Q4的 9.3%提升至 2025Q1的 9.38%，凸显传统行业经营韧性。 金融地产板块内部分化加剧：券商受益于资本市场改革深化，营收与净利润 分别同比增长 22.08%和 8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential imposition of a 25% tariff on imported iPhones by Trump, which is linked to Apple CEO Tim Cook's absence from a recent Middle Eastern trip, marking a significant shift in their relationship and increasing pressure on Apple during a critical product launch period [1][4]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Statements - Trump publicly criticized Tim Cook for not accompanying him on his Middle Eastern trip, which he viewed as a slight, and mentioned Cook multiple times during his visit [2][3]. - During his speeches, Trump praised other CEOs present but pointedly remarked on Cook's absence, indicating a personal grievance [3]. - Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all non-U.S. manufactured iPhones shortly after returning from the trip, which surprised Apple given their previous tariff exemptions [3][4]. Group 2: Apple's Position and Challenges - Under Cook's leadership, Apple has seen its market value increase by over $2.5 trillion, averaging a daily increase of approximately $500 million, with annual net profits nearing $100 billion [6]. - The timing of the tariff threat is particularly challenging for Apple, as the company recently faced a legal setback regarding its App Store practices and is dealing with competitive pressures from former executives [6][7]. - Apple has not committed to manufacturing iPhones in the U.S. and continues to expand its assembly operations in India, which has drawn Trump's ire [6][7]. Group 3: Future Implications - To mitigate criticism regarding overseas production, Apple has pledged to invest $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years and plans to source $19 billion in chips domestically [7]. - Despite these commitments, Trump remains focused on having iPhones manufactured in the U.S., suggesting that the tariff could be a tool to pressure Apple into compliance [7].

而这个美丽优先政策， 你把它视作德州政策的放大版就行了 ，反正这位德州州长也是共和党保守派，一丘之貉，政策也是一脉相承的。 而彼时是什么惨状呢？消息传来后，A股5000多家上市公司，当天跌幅3%以上的占70%，跌幅5%以上的有1400家，然后再看看今天，你就说硬 不硬吧？ 所以，可以看到，此时的心气，和彼时的心气，确实已经完全不同了。 今天表面看有点像股债双杀，但实际上，仅仅是债券吃了一碗大面而已，债券的事下半部分再说。 先说A股，今天成交额继续破2万亿，上涨的股票超过50%，wind全A跌幅不到0.1%， 而之所以说今天A股非常硬 ，主要是因为咱们这边开盘 前，有个实质上比较huge的外围利空。 那就是太平洋对岸，周五出台的 America First Investment Policy，为了文章的安全，我就把它翻译为" 美丽优先 政策 " 吧。 我带大家回忆一下， 去年11月21日，德州州长 ，发布了多项行政命令，限制对咱的投资，并要求州政府所属机构审查在华投资，大家应该多少 有点印象吧？忘了也没事，咱每天写公众号，一搜就能搜到当天的文章，《 找了一下今天大跌的原因 》，里面有提到，可以进去回顾一下。 不 ...