Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is upward. The reference view is also upward. Policy - side favorable expectations strongly support the stock index, and factors such as trading volume, capital inflow, and the development of the technology AI industry all contribute to the positive trend of the stock index [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Content 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is upward, with favorable policy expectations as the core support [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is upward. The reference view is upward. Yesterday, each stock index showed an oscillating upward trend. The trading volume of the three major stock markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 2448.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 192.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume above 2 trillion yuan indicates positive investor sentiment. Policy - side favorable expectations strongly support the stock index, and policies from both supply and demand sides promote price index recovery and corporate profit repair. Funds from margin trading, institutional long - term funds, and residents' wealth - management funds continue to flow into the stock market, which is positive for the valuation repair of the stock index. At the micro - level, the rapid development of the technology AI industry and the increasing logic of domestic substitution are beneficial to the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The upward trend of IM is expected to continue, as the continuous rebound of CSI 1000 stock index futures is driven by multiple positive factors such as improved macro - policy expectations, the booming development of the tech AI industry, and continuous inflow of incremental funds, and these positive factors still exist with few short - term negative risk factors [1][2][6] Summary According to Relevant Content Policy Support - The consumer promotion policy is the main line of this year's macro - policy. 300 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds are arranged to support the trade - in of consumer goods, with an expanded range of trade - in categories. As of July 16, 280 million person - times have applied for trade - in subsidies, driving sales of related goods to exceed 1.6 trillion yuan. In the first half of this year, the retail sales of household appliances, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture in above - quota units increased by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% year - on - year respectively. The third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October, so the role of consumption in driving economic demand will continue [3] - Since July, the "anti - involution" policy has been continuously promoted. It restricts the disorderly expansion of over - capacity industries, curbs low - price competition, and promotes the upgrading of the industry, which can improve corporate profitability and market confidence, and attract funds to leading enterprises [3][4] Tech AI Industry Development - The constituent stocks of the CSI 1000 index are mainly small and medium - sized enterprises with a market value of less than 20 billion yuan. In the industry structure, information technology accounts for 27.3%, industry for 22.7%, and materials for 15.3%. Driven by AI technology and geopolitical factors, domestic tech enterprises are making breakthroughs in semiconductor equipment, industrial software, and AI algorithms. The regulatory authorities support tech innovation enterprises through various policies. Since May 7, as of August 14, 739 science and technology innovation bonds have been issued with a total scale of 926.131 billion yuan, which is beneficial to the CSI 1000 index [5] Incremental Fund Inflow - Recently, the margin trading balance has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the stock market trading volume has remained above 2 trillion yuan for many consecutive days, indicating a continuous increase in risk appetite and a loose capital situation. In July, non - bank financial institution deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan year - on - year, while household deposits decreased by 0.78 trillion yuan year - on - year. The M1 growth rate increased by 3.3 percentage points from May to July, and the trend of deposit term - to - maturity has shown an inflection point for the first time since 2023, so the probability of these funds entering the market is relatively high [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 20 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 风险偏好较乐观，股指震荡上涨 核心观点 今日各股指均呈现震荡上涨的走势，早盘震荡整理，午后单边上行。 沪深京三市全天成交额 24484 亿元，较上日缩量 1923 亿元。目前股市成交 金额大于 2 万亿元，说明投资者情绪仍偏向积极乐观。政策面，利好预期对 股指的支撑作用较强，反内卷政策、促消费政策分别从供需两方面推动价格 指数温和回升，促进企业利润修复。资金面，两融资金、机构长线资金、居 民理财资金持续流入股市，流动性宽松下的资金流入对股指的估值修复起 到积极作用。微观层面，科技 AI 产业快速发展，国产替代需求的逻辑升温， 利好中证 500 和中证 1000 指数。总的来说，股指短期内以震荡偏强为主。 目前期权隐含波动率有所回升，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以继续持 有牛市价差或比例价差温和看多。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longao ...

图为中证1000股指期权的波动率曲线 图为中证1000期指走势 我们需要对多方面因素进行综合考虑，选择收益风险与自身预期相匹配的策略。具体来看，需要从期权相关指标如持仓量PCR、隐含波动率，以及对标的资 产的方向判断等多维度来综合考虑。 从期权持仓量PCR来看，持仓量PCR是认沽期权持仓量与认购期权持仓量的比值，能够反映同时期市场上的多空双方情绪对比。一般而言，持仓量PCR与市 场情绪呈正相关关系，这是因为期权卖方一般是比较专业的投资者，卖出认沽期权说明其对后市行情看涨。截至8月15日，中证1000股指期权的持仓量PCR 为99.49%，位于2024年以来的93.3%的分位数水平。虽然持仓量PCR上周五由于到期换月有所回落，但仍处于较高历史分位数水平。这说明当前持不看空观 点的投资者比例处于历史较高水平，换言之，持仓量PCR指标说明目前市场情绪较为积极乐观。 从期权隐含波动率来看，隐含波动率是根据期权价格和期权定价公式反推计算出来的波动率数值。一般而言，我们可以把平值期权的隐含波动率看作整体波 动率水平的参考指标。从隐含波动率的相对高低可以看出投资者对波动率的未来预期，进而选择合适的波动率入场与出场。截至8月 ...