投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 政策利好预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严 谨 管 理 开 拓 进 取 扫码关 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating of the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock market risk preference is cautious, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. In the long - run, the logic of the stock index's upward movement is relatively reliable due to favorable policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market. However, in the short - term, the "weak reality" pressure of the macro - economy and the weakening of risk preference caused by silver have led to a cautious turn in the stock market sentiment [5] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "relatively strong", the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation", and the core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "relatively strong", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". Yesterday, the stock indexes fluctuated and pulled back. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2194.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 309 billion yuan from the previous day. The sharp decline of silver weakened the market risk preference, making stock market funds more cautious and increasing the willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market, resulting in continuous shrinkage of trading volume. In the long - run, the positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged. But in the short - term, the "weak reality" pressure of the macro - economy and the weakening of risk preference caused by silver have led to a cautious turn in the stock market sentiment. Future attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of policy benefits and the flow of funds [5]

Group 1 - The capital market has started 2026 with a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking last year's high and daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, driven by liquidity and low interest rates [1] - Insurance funds have increased their allocation to stocks and funds, with the proportion rising from 12% in 2022 to approximately 15% by the end of Q3 2025, indicating a significant upward trend [3] - It is estimated that insurance funds will inject between 300 billion to 700 billion yuan into A-shares throughout 2026 [3] Group 2 - The amount of maturing three-year fixed deposits is expected to reach nearly 28 trillion yuan in 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 5 trillion yuan, with over half maturing in the first quarter [6][7] - The continuous decline in deposit rates, from 2.6% to 1.25%, is likely to drive funds from low-yield deposits into higher-yield "fixed income+" products, indirectly injecting liquidity into A-shares [7] Group 3 - In 2025, the median annual return for actively managed equity funds and stock ETFs exceeded 25%, indicating a significant recovery in the equity market's profitability [9][11] - The positive return environment has increased investors' willingness to allocate to stocks, funds, and trusts, as reflected in a multi-quarter rise in investment sentiment among urban savers [11] Group 4 - The scale of private securities investment funds grew from 5.21 trillion yuan to 7.04 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a growth rate of over 35%, driven by high-net-worth individuals' demand for equity market exposure [17] - The sentiment indicator for active private funds showed a recovery entering 2026, suggesting renewed capital inflow into the stock market [19] Group 5 - The current financing balance has reached 2.71 trillion yuan, a historical high, but the growth of leveraged funds is providing liquidity support rather than amplifying market volatility [22][23] - The proportion of foreign investors expressing concerns about structural valuation risks in the Chinese stock market has dropped to a new low of 38%, indicating a potential for increased foreign capital allocation [26][29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, the stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The total market turnover was 291.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 107.54 billion yuan from the previous day. The significant reduction in trading volume indicates that investors have recognized the regulatory authorities' policy intention to reduce leverage and control risks, and their risk appetite has cooled. Some stocks have seen a significant increase in valuation this year while the performance recovery is not strong, so there is a need for profit - taking funds to "switch from high - to - low", resulting in a consolidation market. In the long run, the continuous fermentation of positive policy expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged. The logic of the medium - to - long - term upward movement of the stock indices is relatively solid, but there is uncertainty in the short - term rhythm, and the intraday volatility of the stock market will increase. It is expected that the stock indices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. In terms of options, since the medium - to - long - term upward logic of the stock indices is relatively solid, a bull - spread strategy can be adopted [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Option Indicators - On January 15, 2026, the 50ETF fell 0.22% to close at 3.180; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.18% to close at 4.875; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.06% to close at 4.948; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.20% to close at 4751.43; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.20% to close at 8240.78; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.31% to close at 8.339; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.09% to close at 3.299; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.60% to close at 3.352; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.77% to close at 3.543; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.21% to close at 3105.58; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.38% to close at 1.57; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.52% to close at 1.52 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position - holding volume PCR of various options on January 15, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options in January or February 2026 are provided, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7][8]. 2. Related Charts - For each type of option (e.g., SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, etc.), there are corresponding charts showing the underlying asset's trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position - holding volume PCR, implied volatility curve, and each - term at - the - money implied volatility [9][20][23] etc.

Core Insights - The significant increase in new margin trading accounts in September indicates a recovery in investor confidence and a warming market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Investor Confidence - The rise in new margin trading accounts reflects a substantial repair in investor confidence, with 205,400 new accounts opened in September, marking a 12.24% increase from August and a 288% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The trend of new account openings has been steadily increasing since May, suggesting that more investors, particularly those with a higher risk appetite, are optimistic about future market performance [3]. Group 2: Inflow of New Capital - New margin trading accounts represent a potential source of fresh capital entering the market, which can enhance market activity and liquidity as these funds begin to build positions [4]. - The current demand for incremental capital in the market is urgent, and the recovery in margin trading data provides crucial financial support for the A-share market [4]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The cumulative effect of various supportive measures aimed at stabilizing the capital market has become evident, leading to a shift in investor sentiment from cautious observation to active engagement [5]. - These reforms are addressing core market concerns and facilitating a transition from scale expansion to quality improvement in China's capital market, thereby laying a solid foundation for stable long-term operation and institutional openness [5].

Core Conclusions - In a bull market, the style is relatively stable in the early and late stages, but it tends to fluctuate in the mid-stage. Non-mainstream sectors may lead in the later stages of the bull market, influenced significantly by capital flow rather than performance realization, typically lasting 1-2 quarters [2][10][28] Historical Cases - During the 2005-2007 financial cycle bull market, from January to May 2007, small-cap growth stocks surged, with non-mainstream sectors like textiles, environmental protection, and pharmaceuticals leading the gains. This was attributed to accelerated capital inflow and a shift in market focus towards previously underperforming sectors [3][11][14] - In the 2013-2015 TMT bull market, the fourth quarter of 2014 saw large-cap value stocks outperform, with non-bank financials, construction, banking, and steel sectors leading. This shift was driven by significant inflows of retail capital and a change in focus from performance to valuation [19][21][27] Market Dynamics - Non-mainstream sectors tend to lead in the later stages of a bull market due to increased capital inflow, as mainstream sectors often reach high valuation levels, leading investors to seek undervalued sectors with high safety margins [3][28] - The performance of non-mainstream sectors may be supported by earnings growth, as seen in the textiles sector in early 2007, but there can also be instances where performance realization remains weak despite leading gains, such as in the construction and steel sectors in late 2014 [30][28] Current Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current market may be entering a main upward trend, with potential for style switching towards low-value sectors, particularly in banking and non-bank financials, as well as in low-valued electric equipment and cyclical stocks [37][38] - The financial sector is highlighted as having low overall valuations, with potential for rebound due to style switching and regulatory support for long-term capital inflows [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, all stock indices rebounded unilaterally. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2.4646 trillion yuan, an increase of 460.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Since early September, due to the significant increase in the prices of some individual stocks and a notable rise in the valuation, some investors' willingness to chase the market has weakened, and the profit - taking of profitable funds has led to a technical adjustment of the stock indices. However, the positive policy expectations and the continuous inflow of funds into the stock market still provide long - term support for the stock indices. The Minister of Finance pointed out that "in the next step, more efforts will be made to strengthen the domestic cycle, and more proactive and effective macro - policies will be implemented in a timely manner." Combined with the weak inflation data in August, it means that policies to boost the demand side will continue to be introduced, and the expectation of policy benefits is rising. On the other hand, incremental funds continue to flow into the stock market. The balance of margin trading has exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan and remains at a high level. The significant increase in non - bank deposits in July indicates that the trend of residents' maturing time deposits shifting to equity market allocation is gradually taking shape. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is conducive to driving the flow of the US dollar to emerging economies. Therefore, the trend of net inflow of incremental funds into the A - share market remains unchanged, which is expected to promote the repair of the stock market valuation. However, attention should still be paid to the intensity of profit - taking at the current position, and the subsequent market trend depends on the game between profit - taking and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, the stock indices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options is within the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 11, 2025, the 50ETF rose 1.63% to close at 3.122; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 2.69% to close at 4.660; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 2.56% to close at 4.800; the CSI 300 Index rose 2.31% to close at 4548.03; the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.35% to close at 7399.89; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 3.16% to close at 7.224; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 3.14% to close at 2.891; the ChiNext ETF rose 5.22% to close at 3.025; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 3.82% to close at 3.451; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.48% to close at 2983.08; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 5.45% to close at 1.39; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF rose 5.50% to close at 1.36 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF option was 74.33, and the previous trading day was 98.65; the position PCR was 90.71, and the previous trading day was 83.10 [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in September 2025 and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying for various options are provided. For example, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of the SSE 50ETF option in September 2025 was 15.17%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.60% [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes a series of charts for different options, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, etc. These charts show the trends, volatilities, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatilities of the underlying assets of the options [10][20][33].

Core Insights - The Hang Seng Index Company announced an increase in the number of constituent stocks from 85 to 88, with the inclusion of China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart International Group, effective September 8, 2025 [2] Group 1: Index Changes - The adjustment aligns with market expectations, reflecting the diversity and representativeness of the Hang Seng Index across different industries [2] - The three newly added stocks represent significant sectors: Pop Mart is a leading cultural product IP in China, China Telecom showcases the robust development of state-owned enterprises, and JD Logistics is recognized as an innovator in the logistics industry [2] Group 2: Market Impact - The adjustment is expected to influence substantial capital flows, with approximately $30.35 billion in ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Index needing to rebalance their portfolios [2] - Analysts suggest that the newly included stocks are likely to attract incremental capital, reinforcing the long-term investment value of Hong Kong stocks as a "global value trap," evidenced by the continuous inflow of southbound funds [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The upward trend of IM is expected to continue, as the continuous rebound of CSI 1000 stock index futures is driven by multiple positive factors such as improved macro - policy expectations, the booming development of the tech AI industry, and continuous inflow of incremental funds, and these positive factors still exist with few short - term negative risk factors [1][2][6] Summary According to Relevant Content Policy Support - The consumer promotion policy is the main line of this year's macro - policy. 300 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds are arranged to support the trade - in of consumer goods, with an expanded range of trade - in categories. As of July 16, 280 million person - times have applied for trade - in subsidies, driving sales of related goods to exceed 1.6 trillion yuan. In the first half of this year, the retail sales of household appliances, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture in above - quota units increased by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% year - on - year respectively. The third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October, so the role of consumption in driving economic demand will continue [3] - Since July, the "anti - involution" policy has been continuously promoted. It restricts the disorderly expansion of over - capacity industries, curbs low - price competition, and promotes the upgrading of the industry, which can improve corporate profitability and market confidence, and attract funds to leading enterprises [3][4] Tech AI Industry Development - The constituent stocks of the CSI 1000 index are mainly small and medium - sized enterprises with a market value of less than 20 billion yuan. In the industry structure, information technology accounts for 27.3%, industry for 22.7%, and materials for 15.3%. Driven by AI technology and geopolitical factors, domestic tech enterprises are making breakthroughs in semiconductor equipment, industrial software, and AI algorithms. The regulatory authorities support tech innovation enterprises through various policies. Since May 7, as of August 14, 739 science and technology innovation bonds have been issued with a total scale of 926.131 billion yuan, which is beneficial to the CSI 1000 index [5] Incremental Fund Inflow - Recently, the margin trading balance has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the stock market trading volume has remained above 2 trillion yuan for many consecutive days, indicating a continuous increase in risk appetite and a loose capital situation. In July, non - bank financial institution deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan year - on - year, while household deposits decreased by 0.78 trillion yuan year - on - year. The M1 growth rate increased by 3.3 percentage points from May to July, and the trend of deposit term - to - maturity has shown an inflection point for the first time since 2023, so the probability of these funds entering the market is relatively high [6]

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) increased by 0.96% as of August 13, 2025, with notable gains from stocks such as Robotech (300757) up 19.71% and Xinyisheng (300502) up 13.72% [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) rose by 1.07%, marking its third consecutive increase, with a latest price of 1.04 yuan and a trading volume of 4.27 billion yuan [1] - The A500 ETF fund recorded a turnover rate of 29.18% during the trading session, indicating active market participation [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, with active trading noted; short-term market momentum suggests potential for further upward movement [2] - The current market environment is characterized by a relative policy vacuum in China and the concentration of mid-year financial disclosures, which may lead to structural sector rotations [2] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), public utilities, pharmaceuticals, and finance, supported by a systemic decline in domestic risk-free interest rates and inflows of overseas dollar liquidity [2] Group 3 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index include Kweichow Moutai (600519) and CATL (300750), collectively accounting for 19.83% of the index [3] - The A500 ETF fund has several related index funds, including the Huaxia A500 ETF linked funds and enhanced index funds [3]