文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 十一&中秋假期间，海外市场主要交易的是美国联邦政府"停摆"以及高市早苗在日本自民党总裁选举中胜出 。在此背景下，主要资产价格表现如下：全球主要股指 全面上涨，日股、韩股、欧股涨幅领先；全球主要10年期国债收益率上行；贵金属大幅上涨，原油价格下跌；主要货币中日元汇率跌幅较大。 报告摘要 十一&中秋假期海外六大要闻 要闻1：黄金现货价格冲击4000点关键点位 国际现货黄金价格近期延续强劲上涨势头，在10月7日亚洲交易时段，COMEX黄金期货价格史上首次触及4000美元/盎司的整数关键点位，再次刷新历史纪录 。本 轮黄金价格的迅猛上涨是由多重系统性因素和市场情绪共同推动的结果：一是美联储降息预期与实际收益率下降；二是地缘政治不确定性与避险需求；三是各国央 行持续购金。 全球进入百年一次的秩序重构期（政治、军事、经贸、法币财富），旧秩序逐渐瓦解，新秩序尚难和平成立 。所有股、债、法币等与特定国家信用相关的资产， 都面临秩序溢价还是秩序折价的不确定性。黄金对于当下的秩序主 ...

证券研究报 告 【每周经济观察】 宏观研究 十一&中秋假期海外六大要闻 ——海外周报第 109 期 1、股市：全球主要股指全面上涨，日股、韩股、欧股涨幅领先。10 月 1 日 ~6 日，日经 225、韩国综合指数、欧洲斯托克 600 指数、德国 DAX、MSCI 新兴市场指数、富时 100、纳斯达克、法国 CAC40、标普 500、道琼斯和恒 生 指 数 分 别 上 涨 6.7%、3.6%、2.2%、2.1%、1.9%、1.4%、1.2%、1.0%、 0.8%、0.6%和 0.4%。 2、债券：全球主要 10 年期国债收益率上行。10 月 1 日~6 日，10 年期法债、 英债、美债、日债以及意债收益率分别上行 3.2bps、2.1bps、2.0bps、1.5bps 和 0.6bps。 3、大宗：贵金属大幅上涨，原油价格下跌。10 月 1 日~6 日，伦敦现货白 银、伦敦现货黄金和 LME 期铜分别上涨 5.2%、3.2%和 3.0%，布伦特原油和 WTI 原油分别下跌 2.3%和 1.1%。 4、汇率：主要货币中日元汇率跌幅较大。10 月 1 日~6 日，日元下跌 1.6%， 俄罗斯卢布、英镑和美元指数涨幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The world is on the brink of a profound transformation, driven by structural fractures in monetary, political, and geopolitical orders, with the current debt bubble posing significant risks to the global economy [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary/Economic Order Breakdown - The root cause of the crisis lies in unsustainable debt levels, with excessive debt accumulation and uncontrolled growth of new debt leading to a dangerous debt bubble that supports the capital markets and economies [3][6]. - The current state of de-globalization has resulted in absurd trade deficits and capital imbalances, where major economies are caught in a "technological cold war," undermining supply chain security and trust [4][5]. - The existing monetary and economic order, characterized by low-cost manufacturing in countries like China and high debt levels in the U.S., is unsustainable and must change to address these imbalances [6][12]. Group 2: Domestic Political Order Breakdown - The U.S. faces a political crisis fueled by educational gaps, opportunity disparities, productivity stagnation, wealth polarization, and a fragmented value system, leading to a rise in populism and extreme political polarization [7]. - The erosion of the compromise spirit and rule of law threatens the survival of democratic institutions, with economic and political crises creating a vicious cycle [7][11]. Group 3: International Geopolitical Order Reconstruction - The unipolar world order led by the U.S. has ended, with a shift towards unilateralism and "America First" policies, resulting in trade wars, technological blockades, and geopolitical tensions [8][12]. - This transition is marked by the emergence of a new order that challenges previous multilateral frameworks and introduces new forms of conflict [8][12]. Group 4: Natural Disaster Impact - The increasing destructiveness of natural disasters, such as droughts and pandemics, acts as a catalyst for global system disruptions, contributing to the overall instability [9]. Group 5: Technological Revolution - Disruptive technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, are reshaping monetary debt systems, political power structures, and international interactions, while also altering the cost of responding to natural disasters [10][12]. Group 6: Interconnected Forces - The interplay of these five forces is crucial for understanding the systemic changes underway, as failing to recognize these underlying dynamics can lead to significant misjudgments about current events and their implications [11][12].