Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant global events during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, highlighting the performance of major asset prices, including a notable rise in gold prices and the implications of the U.S. government shutdown [2][4]. Group 1: Overseas Asset Performance - During the holiday period, global stock indices saw comprehensive gains, with the Nikkei 225, KOSPI, and European stocks leading the increases, rising by 6.7%, 3.6%, and 2.2% respectively [15][16]. - Global 10-year government bond yields increased, with yields for French, British, American, Japanese, and Italian bonds rising by 3.2bps, 2.1bps, 2.0bps, 1.5bps, and 0.6bps respectively [16]. - Precious metals experienced significant price increases, while oil prices declined, with spot silver and gold rising by 5.2% and 3.2% respectively, and Brent and WTI crude oil prices falling by 2.3% and 1.1% [16]. - The Japanese yen depreciated significantly, dropping by 1.6% against major currencies during the same period [16]. Group 2: Key Events - The U.S. federal government experienced a shutdown for the first time in seven years due to a failure to pass a temporary funding bill, affecting numerous federal employees and halting economic data releases [6][27]. - High-profile political changes occurred in Japan, with former Minister of Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, winning the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, potentially becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister [7][31]. - Gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures reaching $4000 per ounce for the first time, driven by factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [4][34]. - OPEC+ announced a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, reflecting a compromise between Saudi Arabia and Russia amid a backdrop of global economic stability [9][41]. - French Prime Minister Le Cornu resigned after less than a month in office, highlighting political instability in France, which has led to increased borrowing costs and concerns over fiscal reforms [10][43]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve faces challenges in determining interest rate paths due to the government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data releases [12][46].

Market Performance - Global major stock indices rose significantly, with the Nikkei 225 up 6.7%, the KOSPI up 3.6%, and the STOXX 600 up 2.2% from October 1 to 6[1] - Major 10-year government bond yields increased, with French bonds rising by 3.2bps, UK bonds by 2.1bps, and US bonds by 2.0bps during the same period[1] - Precious metals saw substantial gains, with silver up 5.2%, gold up 3.2%, and copper up 3.0%, while Brent crude oil and WTI fell by 2.3% and 1.1% respectively[1] Currency Movements - The Japanese yen depreciated by 1.6%, while the Russian ruble, British pound, and US dollar index appreciated by 1.2%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively from October 1 to 6[2] Key Events - Gold prices hit a historic high of $4000 per ounce on October 7, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases[3] - The US federal government entered a shutdown on October 1, affecting numerous federal employees and halting economic data releases, yet the stock market remained resilient, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching record highs[4] - High-profile political changes occurred in Japan, with Sanae Takaichi winning the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, potentially becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister, leading to a surge in Japanese stock prices[6] Economic Outlook - The OPEC+ group agreed to a slight production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, reflecting a compromise between Saudi Arabia and Russia amid concerns of oversupply[8] - France's political instability was highlighted by the resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu, raising concerns over the country's fiscal health and increasing borrowing costs, with 10-year bond yields surpassing those of Greece[9] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in determining interest rate paths due to the government shutdown, with a 92.5% probability of a rate cut expected in October[10]

Core Viewpoint - The world is on the brink of a profound transformation, driven by structural fractures in monetary, political, and geopolitical orders, with the current debt bubble posing significant risks to the global economy [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary/Economic Order Breakdown - The root cause of the crisis lies in unsustainable debt levels, with excessive debt accumulation and uncontrolled growth of new debt leading to a dangerous debt bubble that supports the capital markets and economies [3][6]. - The current state of de-globalization has resulted in absurd trade deficits and capital imbalances, where major economies are caught in a "technological cold war," undermining supply chain security and trust [4][5]. - The existing monetary and economic order, characterized by low-cost manufacturing in countries like China and high debt levels in the U.S., is unsustainable and must change to address these imbalances [6][12]. Group 2: Domestic Political Order Breakdown - The U.S. faces a political crisis fueled by educational gaps, opportunity disparities, productivity stagnation, wealth polarization, and a fragmented value system, leading to a rise in populism and extreme political polarization [7]. - The erosion of the compromise spirit and rule of law threatens the survival of democratic institutions, with economic and political crises creating a vicious cycle [7][11]. Group 3: International Geopolitical Order Reconstruction - The unipolar world order led by the U.S. has ended, with a shift towards unilateralism and "America First" policies, resulting in trade wars, technological blockades, and geopolitical tensions [8][12]. - This transition is marked by the emergence of a new order that challenges previous multilateral frameworks and introduces new forms of conflict [8][12]. Group 4: Natural Disaster Impact - The increasing destructiveness of natural disasters, such as droughts and pandemics, acts as a catalyst for global system disruptions, contributing to the overall instability [9]. Group 5: Technological Revolution - Disruptive technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, are reshaping monetary debt systems, political power structures, and international interactions, while also altering the cost of responding to natural disasters [10][12]. Group 6: Interconnected Forces - The interplay of these five forces is crucial for understanding the systemic changes underway, as failing to recognize these underlying dynamics can lead to significant misjudgments about current events and their implications [11][12].