Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Commerce on October 9 regarding comprehensive export controls on rare earth-related technologies and overseas items significantly expands the scope of control, enhancing China's pricing power in the rare earth sector and potentially catalyzing market performance [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The new export control policy is systematic and comprehensive, strengthening China's pricing power in the rare earth market by extending controls to overseas transshipment and technology transfer [1] - The policy creates challenges for overseas companies in obtaining smelting and separation technologies, thereby consolidating China's competitive advantage across the entire industry chain [1] Group 2: Price Trends - Recent prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide have remained stable within the range of 550,000 to 570,000, with some feedback indicating a reduction in orders from magnetic material manufacturers after November [2] - Despite the recent price fluctuations, the tightening of heavy rare earth smelting and separation capacity and ongoing policy catalysts are expected to provide strong support for prices [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The price center for rare earths is expected to continue rising, with supply controls extending globally, reinforcing supply rigidity and potentially slowing the release of overseas supply [3] - Demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and air conditioning remains robust, and the reinforcement of export controls may lead to increased restocking intentions from overseas terminals, further elevating the price center [3] Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748.SZ, 06680), China Rare Earth (000831.SZ), Guangsheng Nonferrous (600259.SH), and Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), with additional mentions of Ningbo Yunsheng (600366.SH) and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials (300224.SH) [4]

管制政策系统化、全链条升级，有助于强化国内稀土定价权。 本次出口管制政策明显加码，将稀土出口管制环节扩大到海外转口和技术转移，海外企业即便 获得矿石，也将面临冶炼分离技术和含有中国成分的中间品的获取难题，有助于巩固中国在全产业链的竞争优势，进而强化稀土的全球定价权。 报告导读： 2025年10月9日，商务部发布《对稀土相关技术实施出口管制的决定》《境 外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定》等四项出口管制政策，稀土出口管制政策形成全 链条系统，国内稀土定价权再度强化，有望进一步催化板块行情。 投资建议：维持稀土行业"增持"评级。 2025年10月9日，商务部发布《对稀土相关技术实施出口管制的决定》、《境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定》等 四项出口管制政策，相较于4月出台的中重稀土出口管制政策，主要增量信息包括：管制对象扩大、管辖范围扩展至全球、管制环节扩展至境外的生产/转口/再 出口、将追溯制度延伸至海外等等。我们认为本次政策组合拳出台后，稀土出口管制政策形成全链条系统，国内稀土定价权再度强化，有望进一步催化板块行 情。 近期稀土价格窄幅波动，政策催化或持续。 近期氧化镨钕价格维持55-57万窄幅波动，部分磁材厂 ...

Core Insights - The global rare earth supply chain is heavily reliant on China, with 93% of refining capacity and over 91% of neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet exports coming from China [1][3] - The U.S. has invested significantly in domestic rare earth exploration and refining, with a record $6.1 billion allocated in 2024, but faces delays and challenges in production [3][10] - China's recent export policy changes and technological advancements have strengthened its position in the rare earth market, with a notable increase in high-end rare earth material exports [6][14] Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. Department of Defense has highlighted the risks of supply chain disruptions affecting critical military equipment like the F-35 and nuclear submarines [1] - Despite efforts to establish a North American Rare Earth Alliance, challenges such as talent shortages and industrial coordination persist [3][5] - Australia’s Lynas Corporation is forced to process rare earths in Malaysia, indicating a continued dependency on Chinese processing capabilities [5] Group 2: Policy and Market Trends - China's stringent export regulations for military rare earths and the introduction of RMB-denominated futures have enhanced its pricing power [6][14] - In the first half of 2025, China's rare earth exports decreased by 11.2%, while high-end material exports grew by 9.7%, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [6] - The European high-end manufacturing sector is facing profit pressures due to rising rare earth prices, with companies like Renault and BMW paying above international prices for Chinese materials [10] Group 3: Technological and Environmental Innovations - China is undergoing a green transformation in its rare earth industry, with 80% of mining operations adopting green practices and a 31% increase in ecological restoration efforts [8][14] - Significant advancements in technology are being made, with a 46% increase in patent applications for new rare earth alloys in the first half of 2025 [8] - International collaborations are being pursued to enhance the security and stability of the global green energy supply chain [12][14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The global rare earth supply chain is expected to remain centered around China for the next decade, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and competition [14][16] - The U.S. and its allies are attempting to develop alternative sources and technologies, but face significant hurdles in achieving independence from Chinese supply [10][12] - The outcome of the rare earth competition will depend on who can effectively navigate the final challenges of high-end, green, and collaborative industrial practices [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that following China's announcement of export controls on seven categories of rare earth materials, prices for dysprosium have doubled to $850 per kilogram, and terbium has surged from $965 to $3000 per kilogram, indicating a significant market reaction to the controls [1] - Rare earths are considered strategic resources, and the current price increase is seen as insufficient, with expectations that prices should rise fifty to one hundred times to reflect their true value [1] - There is a call for stronger national control and anti-smuggling measures to protect the value of rare earths, emphasizing the need for China to leverage its complete industrial chain and technological advantages in this sector [1][4] Group 2 - The extraction and refining of rare earths require substantial electricity, and the process is inefficient for countries like the U.S. that do not have the capacity to produce rare earths in large quantities [4] - China is highlighted as having the best refining technology and a complete industrial chain, which positions it to control pricing and potentially increase profits significantly [4] - There is a strategic recommendation to set export control prices for rare earths at over fifty times the current levels to prevent low-cost sales to countries like South Korea that may resell to the U.S. [5]