文 | 万联万象，作者 | 龙猫 稀土，这个被誉为"工业维生素"的战略资源，正以五连涨的强劲态势，宣告其市场价值的强势回归。 10月10日晚间，中国稀土行业两大巨头——包钢股份与北方稀土同步发布公告，宣布将2025年第四季度 稀土精矿关联交易价格调整为不含税26205元/吨（干量，REO=50%），较第三季度的19109元/吨环比大 涨37.13%。 这不仅创下了自2023年二季度以来最大单季涨幅，也标志着稀土精矿价格实现了连续五个季度的稳步上 涨。 受此影响，A股的稀土永磁板块在10月13日迎来集体涨停潮，承包了整个股市的High点。整个连锁反应 背后，更蕴含着全球稀土市场的一场新变局。 价格暴涨的供需逻辑 稀土精矿价格的迅猛涨势，建立在长期基本面的深刻变化之上。这一轮价格上涨始于2024年四季度，当 时稀土精矿价格刚刚经历了一轮深度调整。 2025年国内稀土开采配额仅增长5.9%，创下十年最低增幅，且这些配额大部分集中在头部企业手中。 在需求端，稀土的应用领域早已从传统的冶金、石化，扩展至新能源、高科技等新兴产业。 特别是新能源汽车领域，2025年国内新能源车渗透率已经突破45%，虽然增速放缓，但单车稀土 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth-related technologies to safeguard national security and interests, effective October 9, 2025 [1] - The rare metal ETF index (930632) surged by 6.23% as of October 9, 2025, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Western Superconducting (up 18.79%) and Ganfeng Lithium (up 9.15%) [1] - The rare metal ETF fund (561800) has seen a cumulative increase of 10.36% over the past two weeks, ranking first among comparable funds [1][3] Industry Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the rare metal ETF fund recorded a highest monthly return of 24.02% since its inception, with an average monthly return of 8.58% during rising months [3] - The rare earth prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxides, are expected to remain high, contributing to strong performance in the rare earth industry in the second half of the year [3] - The supply-demand dynamics in the rare earth sector are improving, with domestic supply growth lagging behind demand expansion due to regulatory measures on mining and separation [3] - Demand is driven by industries such as robotics, low-altitude economy, and military applications, while high refining costs abroad support price expectations [3] Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the rare metal index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium, collectively accounting for 59.91% of the index [4][5] - Notable stock performances include Salt Lake Co. (up 6.76%), Northern Rare Earth (up 7.31%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (up 9.04%) [7]

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Performance - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 4.52% with a transaction volume of 244 million yuan [3] - As of August 20, the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has reached a new high in size at 5.372 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund has seen a significant increase in shares, with an addition of 282 million shares this month, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past 10 trading days, the Rare Earth ETF has attracted a total of 144 million yuan in inflows [3] - The net value of the Rare Earth ETF has increased by 104.13% over the past year, placing it in the top 1.82% among 2,965 index equity funds [3] - The fund's highest monthly return since inception was 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum increase of 83.89% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Price Movements - As of August 15, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose to 593,000 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 5.6%, while the price of metallic praseodymium and neodymium reached 720,000 yuan per ton, up 4.7% [4] - Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel have adjusted the trading price of rare earth concentrates for Q3 2025 to 19,109 yuan per ton, a 1.5% increase from Q2, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of price increases since Q4 2024 [4] - Analysts believe that the supply-demand relationship in the rare earth industry has improved significantly, with supply growth slowing domestically and demand being driven by industries such as robotics [4] - High smelting costs overseas are supporting price differentials, and the U.S. acquisition base price is raising price expectations, leading to a reassessment of the strategic value of rare earths [4] Group 3: Top Holdings in Rare Earth Sector - As of July 31, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index include Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Wolong Electric Drive, China Aluminum, Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing, Greeenmei, Xiamen Tungsten, and Goldwind Technology, collectively accounting for 59.32% of the index [3]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic importance of rare earth elements is highlighted, particularly in the context of the automotive industry and emerging technologies, with significant implications for supply chains and market dynamics [2][5][7]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Ford and Suzuki are struggling to secure necessary rare earth materials for production, leading to temporary factory shutdowns [2] - Indian automakers have reported critical shortages, with only three days of inventory left for rare earth magnets [2] - A coalition of major automotive manufacturers warns that a lack of stable supply of rare earth materials could halt production of essential components [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - North Rare Earth has seen a stock price increase of over 32% in July, reaching a two-year high following strong performance forecasts [2][3] - The company anticipates a net profit of 136 million to 176 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [3] Group 3: Strategic Value of Rare Earths - Rare earths are increasingly recognized as critical materials, transitioning from "industrial flavoring" to "technological vitamins" due to their essential role in high-tech applications [5][7] - The military sector relies heavily on rare earths for advanced weaponry, with significant investments from the U.S. government in domestic rare earth production [5][6] Group 4: Future Demand Projections - The demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is projected to reach 117,000 tons and 126,900 tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 9.7% and 8.4% [8] - The expansion of the low-altitude economy and the rise of humanoid robots are expected to drive new demand for rare earth materials [6][8]