Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the industry index rising by 1.94% and individual stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Zhongkuang Resources showing significant gains [1] - Huayou Cobalt is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.85 billion to 6.45 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.8% to 55.24% [1] - The overall upward trend in non-ferrous metals is attributed to rising geopolitical tensions and loose liquidity, with copper futures reaching a historic high of $13,000 per ton and aluminum prices surpassing $3,000 per ton for the first time in over three years [1] Group 2 - According to Fangzheng Securities, the short-term global copper inventory is expected to continue adjusting, with supply shortages in copper mines reinforcing the upward price trend [2] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to benefit from low alumina prices, leading to an expansion in profit margins, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may further support aluminum prices [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-driven factors in cobalt pricing, particularly in relation to the Democratic Republic of Congo's efforts to secure pricing power [2] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index account for 51.65% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [3]

"金田股份（601609）深耕有色金属加工领域39年，以'铜基材料+稀土磁材'两大业务为驱动，在'十四 五'期间，实现了规模、技术、市场的多重跨越，完成了从规模领先到质效双优的关键转型。"金田股份 负责人在接受证券时报记者专访时表示，"十四五"期间，金田股份成功从铜加工行业龙头迈向全球先进 材料供应商，"十五五"期间更将开启高端化、国际化、多元化新征程。 回顾"十四五"时期，金田股份的规模扩张与行业地位提升成效显著，核心业务实现跨越式增长。2021年 —2024年，金田股份铜材产量年复合增长率为8%，2024年铜及铜合金材料总产量191.62万吨，铜材总 产量已位居全球第一。2025年上半年，金田股份实现铜及铜合金材料总产量91.98万吨，持续保持行业 龙头地位。目前，金田股份已成为国内产业链最完整、品类最多、规模最大的铜及铜合金材料生产企业 之一，也是国内稀土磁材行业中技术较高、产品体系完善的企业之一。 高端化突破是金田股份"十四五"期间核心亮点。金田股份负责人向记者介绍，近年来，金田股份坚定不 移推进"产品、客户双升级"战略，攻克铜基材料高综合性能与特殊工况适配的技术难题，成功研发高导 抗电弧、高导高韧、 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2026 01 01 年 月 日 有色金属 2026 年度策略：物少天成贵，势来价自高 贵金属：白银王者归来，黄金仍将闪耀。2026 年美联储仍有降息必要性，货 币政策基准情形将维持适度宽松。黄金方面，全球央行增持黄金热度不减；黄 金 ETF 往往在降息周期中持续流入。ETF 与央行共振下黄金牛市有望延续。 白银方面，2025 年白银 ETF 持仓显著提升，金融属性主导银价上涨。我们认 为，市场高估了工业需求的影响，而低估了金融属性所带来的投资需求拉动。 同时，尽管 2025 年银价涨幅超过黄金，但目前金银比仍然显示银价相对金价 低估。银价在 2025 年大幅上涨后，金银比依然位于 70 以上的历史偏高水平。 历史上看，金银比多数时间运行在 40-80 区间，目前金银比仍显示银价相对于 金价处于低估状态。 铜：供需缺口明确，铜价上行斜率提升。①宏观面：2026 年中美关键年份再 度重合，"关税退坡+财货双松"支撑铜价牛市加速。②供给端：供给矛盾在 2026 年依然存在，CAPEX 回升需要更高铜价激励。我们认为供给扰动的集中 发生也并非简单的"黑天鹅"事件 ...

Group 1 - The energy metal sector is experiencing a surge in demand driven by a dual catalyst of supply restructuring and explosive demand, particularly in the context of energy storage [1][2] - Major resource countries are actively managing supply through policies such as quotas and licenses, aiming to gain control over resource pricing [1][2] - The demand for carbonated lithium in the energy storage sector is projected to reach approximately 345,000 tons by 2025 and is expected to exceed 500,000 tons by 2026, marking a tenfold increase from 2021 [2] Group 2 - In the lithium sector, the industry is undergoing a deep clearing with a slowdown in capital expenditure, indicating clear bottom signals. The sustained demand for energy storage is expected to drive a tight balance in global carbonated lithium supply and demand by 2026, making lithium prices more likely to rise [2][3] - Cobalt prices are entering an upward channel due to supply management, while nickel prices, despite being suppressed by high inventory, have dropped to deep cost curve levels, with Indonesia's supply management laying the groundwork for future price recovery [2][3] - The domestic production index control for rare earth materials is tightening supply, while resilient demand from downstream sectors such as new energy vehicles and wind power supports a strong price environment [2][3] Group 3 - Recommended companies in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, Yongxing Materials, and Shengxin Lithium Energy [3][4] - For cobalt and nickel, Huayou Cobalt is highlighted as a potential beneficiary due to strengthened supply-side policies and the industry being at a long-term bottom [3][4] - In the rare earth magnetic materials sector, companies such as Ningbo Yunsheng and Jieli Permanent Magnet are suggested as beneficiaries due to supply tightening and stable high-end demand [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in exports to the United States, with rare earth prices expected to recover [2] - Supply constraints are strengthening demand, leading to a potential price recovery in the rare earth sector [8] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with resource quotas and technological advantages in the rare earth industry [8] Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - In October 2025, China exported 5,473 tons of permanent magnets, a slight month-on-month decrease of 5.2% but a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [8] - Exports to the United States saw a substantial month-on-month increase of 56.1%, totaling 656 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [8] - The cumulative export quantity for the first ten months of 2025 was 45,290.5 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [8] Price Trends - The export value of rare earths in October was 1.92 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 4.7% month-on-month, with a per-ton price of 350,300 RMB [8] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide fluctuated, reaching a high of 563,600 RMB per ton and dropping to a low of 501,300 RMB before recovering to 535,600 RMB by the end of October [8] Supply and Demand Outlook - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to slow growth in domestic rare earth mining quotas and geopolitical issues affecting imports [8] - Demand is anticipated to strengthen due to seasonal peaks in the electric vehicle and wind power sectors, alongside new production in humanoid robots [8] - The report predicts a sustained tight balance in supply and demand, with rare earth prices likely to rise steadily [8] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on global high-performance magnet leaders, particularly Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748, Buy) [8] - Long-term focus on leading companies in the rare earth industry, such as Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy), benefiting from an optimized supply structure [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Aviation Industry - The adjustment of the China-Japan route impacts airlines and ticket prices, with the route accounting for 3% of the total market share. The removal of flights has led to a shift in capacity to domestic flights, causing ticket prices to stabilize or slightly decline from previous growth of 2-3% [2] - Airlines have extended the free ticket refund period for the China-Japan route until March 31, 2026, resulting in short-term disruptions but overall limited impact due to the small number of flights removed [2] - The recommendation for airline stocks includes China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, followed by Huaxia Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2] Retail and Duty-Free Market - The Shanghai Airport duty-free store bidding process has sparked discussions, with potential new operators being introduced as existing shareholders oppose the bid. This could lead to increased revenue for Shanghai Airport [4] - The bidding process may benefit Shanghai Airport regardless of the outcome, as the expected revenue from the bidding exceeds investment returns [4] Shipping and Bulk Freight - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a two-year high of 2,854 points, driven by the upcoming production of the West Manganese Mine and concentrated shipments from Australian mines [5] - The outlook for the bulk shipping market remains positive, with recommendations for stocks such as Haitong Development, Pacific Shipping, and China Merchants Energy [5] Express Delivery Industry - Jitu's volume growth in Southeast Asia reached 78% during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with new market growth at 83%, indicating strong performance [6] - The express delivery sector is experiencing a shift, with leading companies increasing market share while lower-tier companies see declines. Zhongtong has returned to double-digit growth in October and November, making it an attractive investment opportunity [7] Commodity Market Insights Metal Market - The commodity cycle since 2020 is not yet halfway through, with expectations for a bull market in 2026 driven by a weakening dollar and supply chain disruptions [8] - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on energy metals, nickel, cobalt, gold, copper, aluminum, and strategic metals, influenced by energy revolutions and geopolitical tensions [11] - Specific insights include: - Nickel and cobalt prices are expected to remain high due to quota systems and unexpected demand for energy storage [8] - Copper's supply issues are critical, with both financial and commodity attributes driving its value [8] - Aluminum is anticipated to break out of a three-year range due to low inventory and increased demand from industrial and energy sectors [8] Coal Market - The coal market is currently under pressure, with prices for Shanxi coal dropping by 27 yuan, and overall coal inventory rising but still below last year's levels [13][14] - Electricity consumption has decreased year-on-year, but there is a seasonal uptick in demand [15] - The national coal market conference indicated a balanced supply-demand outlook for 2026, with a focus on long-term contracts and import controls to stabilize prices [16] Future Projections - The overall sentiment for the metal sector in 2026 is optimistic, emphasizing the importance of energy revolutions and geopolitical factors for long-term investment opportunities [9]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal industry is benefiting from improved liquidity expectations and supportive supply-demand dynamics [1] - Copper prices have surged significantly due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with a consensus on tight supply reinforcing a supercycle logic [1] - The aluminum processing operating rate has increased to 62.3% month-on-month, with both primary and recycled alloy sectors performing strongly due to automotive demand [1] Group 2 - Precious metals are experiencing price increases driven by optimistic liquidity expectations, with silver showing significant gains due to low inventory levels [1] - In the energy metals sector, lithium demand remains strong, although salt lake production is seasonally declining, while cobalt raw materials are tight, supporting prices [1] - Light rare earth prices are rising due to favorable policies and demand, while heavy rare earth prices are declining due to relaxed supply [1] Group 3 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes listed companies involved in the mining and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics and effectively reflects the operational status of China's non-ferrous metal industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent equity restructuring within Jintian Co., Ltd. (金田股份) involves the transfer of shares from the current controlling shareholders to their children, aimed at aligning the company's control with future strategic needs [1][3]. Shareholding Structure Changes - After the equity transfer, the new shareholding structure will see Lou Cheng holding 70.7456% and Lou Jingjing holding 8.2018% of Jintian Investment, while Lou Guoqiang and Lu Xiaomi will no longer hold any shares in Jintian Investment [3][5]. - Jintian Investment holds 423 million shares of Jintian Co., accounting for 24.49% of the total shares, with a market value of approximately 4.319 billion yuan [3][5]. Family Background and Management - Lou Guoqiang, born in 1957, has been a key figure in the company since 1986, leading it from near bankruptcy to becoming one of China's top 500 private enterprises [3][5]. - Lu Xiaomi, born in 1959, has held various roles within the company since 1988 and retired in 2009 [3][5]. - Lou Cheng, born in 1988, has been with the company since 2011 and currently serves as both Chairman and General Manager [4][5]. - Lou Jingjing, born in 1982, has held several positions within the company from 2007 to 2017 [4][5]. Company Performance - Jintian Co. is recognized as one of the largest producers of copper and copper alloy materials in China, with a compound annual growth rate of 8% in copper production from 2021 to 2024 [6]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a total copper and copper alloy production of 1.9162 million tons, maintaining its position as a global leader [6]. - For the first three quarters of the current year, Jintian Co. reported revenues of 91.765 billion yuan and a net profit of 588 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 104.37% [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.823 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.71% and a year-on-year increase of 39.27%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.3% and a year-on-year increase of 109.85%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 792 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.67% and a year-on-year increase of 114.05%. The strong performance reflects the company's resource profitability elasticity and competitive positioning in the downstream industry chain [2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported operating revenue of 12.823 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 18.71% and a year-on-year growth of 39.27% [2][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 810 million yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.3% and a year-on-year increase of 109.85% [2][4] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 792 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.67% and a year-on-year increase of 114.05% [2][4] Segment Performance - The tungsten and molybdenum segment generated revenue of 5.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19% and a profit of 1.058 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43% [11] - The energy new materials segment achieved revenue of 5.525 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% and a profit of 273 million yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27% [11] - The rare earth magnetic materials segment reported revenue of 1.579 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% and a profit of 60 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that advancements in robotics and materials science are driving new opportunities in the manufacturing and technology sectors [1][2][3] Group 2 - ZhiYuan Robotics has successfully implemented its real-machine reinforcement learning technology in collaboration with Longqi Technology, marking a significant step from academic research to industrial application [1] - The collaboration addresses rigid bottlenecks in precision manufacturing, enhancing the efficiency and adaptability of flexible manufacturing processes [1] - Cloud Deep Technology has transitioned from a limited liability company to a joint-stock company, indicating a strategic move towards potential capital operations and market competitiveness [2] - Northern Rare Earth has identified humanoid robots as a new driving force for the demand for rare earth magnetic materials, highlighting the interdependence between the humanoid robotics industry and upstream material supply chains [3] - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnetic materials is expected to grow alongside the commercialization of humanoid robots, benefiting companies with advanced magnetic material production capabilities [3]