2026.02. 07 本文字数：1390，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 面对全球严峻复杂的经济形势，上海过去两年的实际使用外资规模未能止跌;抵住关税战压力逆势实现增长的外贸，也仍然面临较大的外部压力。 在7日举行的上海市人民政府主题记者会上，上海市商务委主任申卫华表示，上海历来是外商投资中国的重要目的地也是首选地，外资在全市经济社会 发展中具有重要地位和作用。虽然实到外资数据有所下降，但2025年的降幅已经收缩到了个位数。全市实际使用外资达160.6亿美元的规模，在全国各 省市中排到第二位，总量占全国比重也在上升，达到了15.3%。 同时，上海吸引的外资也显现出较高的质量。"十四五"期间，上海高技术产业实际使用外资占比达到33%，较"十三五"提高了10个百分点。同样体现外 资质量的地区总部数量也在持续上升。截至去年底，上海累计认定跨国公司地区总部、外资研发中心1076家、636家。 申卫华介绍，2025年，上海市新设外资企业达到6300家，新设外资企业家数增长6.8%；合同外资达180亿美元，增长近20%。这充分说明在当前环境 形势下，上海仍是外商投资的首选地，是跨国公司全球产业链和供应链布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is marked by significant economic resilience and vitality in China, showcasing a strong recovery and development trajectory amid global challenges [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with an economic increment of over 35 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, equivalent to recreating the economic scale of the Yangtze River Delta [3]. - The average annual growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be 5.5%, significantly higher than the global average, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen a surge in innovation, with record R&D investments and advancements in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [4]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - In 2025, China will implement a combination of "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," with the fiscal deficit rate rising to a historical high of 4% [6]. - The total new government debt is expected to increase by nearly 3 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 12 trillion yuan [6]. - Monetary policy will focus on supporting economic growth, with a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, leading to a significant increase in social financing and loan balances [6][7]. Group 3: Consumer Market and Consumption - Consumption is a key focus for expanding domestic demand, with retail sales expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, contributing around 60% to economic growth [8]. - The government has increased funding for consumption incentives, doubling the budget for old-for-new consumption programs to 300 billion yuan [8]. - The service sector is experiencing rapid growth, with service retail sales outpacing goods retail sales in growth rates [8]. Group 4: Artificial Intelligence and Technology - 2025 is seen as a breakthrough year for AI applications in China, with the government emphasizing the "Artificial Intelligence+" strategy [10]. - China holds 60% of global AI patents, and the core AI industry is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025 [10]. - The data industry in China is also expanding, with a current scale of over 5.8 trillion yuan and expected annual growth rates of over 15% from 2025 to 2030 [10]. Group 5: Private Economy and Investment - The private economy is positioned for significant growth, supported by new legislation that reinforces the legal status and development of private enterprises [13]. - Policies aimed at enhancing private investment have been implemented, focusing on expanding access and improving investment efficiency [13]. - Continuous communication between government and private enterprises is fostering a healthier environment for private sector growth [13]. Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - The "Two Innovation Boards" (Science and Technology Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market) are undergoing reforms to enhance market inclusivity and adaptability [16]. - Since the introduction of new policies, over 20 companies have applied for IPOs on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, with significant fundraising success [17]. - The capital market is becoming a crucial hub for nurturing new productive forces, with ongoing reforms releasing substantial capital for technological innovation [17]. Group 7: Foreign Trade and Investment - In 2025, China is focusing on stabilizing foreign trade and investment through institutional innovation and open practices, with a notable increase in foreign investment enterprises [20]. - Policies supporting foreign trade and investment are being implemented, including market access expansion and improved business environments for foreign enterprises [21]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port has implemented attractive policies to enhance trade, contributing to China's goal of becoming a trade powerhouse [21]. Group 8: Risk Management and Economic Stability - China is actively addressing risks in key sectors, including local government debt and financial institution stability, to ensure high-quality development [22]. - The government is replacing hidden debts with special bonds, significantly reducing interest costs for local governments [22]. - Measures to stabilize the housing market and support affordable housing projects are being prioritized to protect consumer rights [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is the positive assessment of China's economic performance in the first half of the year, with GDP exceeding 66 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2025 by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% compared to its April prediction [2] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to be timely and flexible, particularly in implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies [2][3] Group 2 - The focus for the second half of the year will be on domestic demand, with an emphasis on effectively releasing its potential and implementing special actions to boost consumption [4] - The government plans to increase disposable income through measures such as a new childcare subsidy program, which is expected to directly boost consumption by approximately 70 billion yuan, equivalent to about 0.05% of GDP in 2024 [5] - The meeting highlighted the importance of supporting foreign trade enterprises, particularly those impacted by international challenges, and emphasized the need for high-level opening up to stabilize foreign trade and investment [6][8] Group 3 - The meeting did not mention real estate risks, which indicates that risks in this sector have been effectively mitigated, focusing instead on urban renewal and improving local government debt management [10] - Recent significant actions in the real estate sector, such as the introduction of the Housing Rental Regulations, aim to support the establishment of a dual rental and purchase housing system [11] - The focus on urban renewal is expected to accelerate the implementation of related policies, enhancing top-level design and attracting social capital for sustainable urban development [11]