Core Insights - The market experienced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones index falling by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices remained relatively flat, indicating unresolved core issues in the market [2] - The rebound in U.S. stocks is seen as localized and passive, driven by technical levels rather than a genuine recovery in market confidence [2][3] Market Dynamics - Gold and Bitcoin did not recover like U.S. stocks, suggesting a lack of global market confidence, as these assets are traded continuously and should have rebounded if sentiment improved [2] - The rebound in U.S. stocks began at 23:00, coinciding with a quiet news environment, attributed to a "technical rebound" triggered by hitting important moving averages [3] Trading Behavior - The buying activity was characterized as "passive and forced," with a significant portion of trading volume (37%) related to ETFs, indicating a reactive rather than proactive market response [3] - The market sentiment reflects a temporary rebound due to prior declines rather than a renewed optimism about future prospects, highlighting a lack of active buying, liquidity, and certainty [3] Strategic Insights - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: Winter Defense, Second Line" suggests a strategic repositioning rather than a retreat, emphasizing a more discerning approach to capital allocation [4] - The report highlights a shift in trading logic, with capital preparing for a "second line" phase, indicating a more selective investment environment [5] - Insights into China's market outlook for 2026 suggest potential investment opportunities, alongside an analysis of the U.S.-China AI competition and which stocks may be more favorable for investment [5]

昨晚，全球市场启动"团灭式下跌"： 金价自日内高点一度跌100美元，美元跌至一个月低位，比特币跌破10万美元，美国股市则全线溃败 （纳斯达克指数跌幅超2%）。 第一，这次下跌没有安全的资产，就连黄金和美国国债也一同下跌，连"避险都不避险"。市场正在经历 一场巨大的"强制减仓"过程。 第二，昨天有两个事件点值得关注：北京时间15:00和21:30。两种不同"恐惧来源"，叠加在一起，引爆 了行情。 · 15:00，开始有了下跌苗头，特朗普签字，美国政府停摆结束。美股期货在消息落地后，转而跌了—— 政府重启，反而是"不确定性开始大爆发"。过去 43 天，没有数据，就没有坏消息。现在数据洪流回来 了，停摆43天堆积的数据，将在未来三周一次性砸出，这才是市场真正紧张的开始。 · 21:30，加速下跌，当时旧金山联储主席戴利说了一句"坚决反对提高美联储的通胀目标"，是市场厄运 的开始（言外之意，别指望美联储"认输式降息"，宁愿维持更久的高利率，也要把通胀压回2%）。市 场瞬间明白，美联储不打算"和市场妥协"。更糟糕的是，随后又来一连串柯林斯、穆萨莱姆、古尔斯 比、施密德全部在强调不支持12月降息——市场对12月降息的概率 ...