财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-12-22 各种小作文利好发酵，螺矿维持小幅反弹 【螺纹钢】 研究员 姓名：薛国鹏 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 Z0017173 期货方面：本周螺纹 05 合约在空头主力减仓驱动下维持小幅反弹。截止周 五，螺纹 05 合约收于 3119 元/吨，环比上周上涨 59 元，周涨 幅 1.93%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： F3073406 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格继续小幅上调，整体成交一般。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价上调 35 元至 3324 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格上调 30 元至 3300 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格上调 40 元至 3320 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格维持不变 3130 元/吨；天 津地区螺纹价上调 20 元至 3170 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格上调 20 元至 3510 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.47%，环比减少 0.16%， 同比减少 1.16%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 84.93%，环比上周减少 0.99%，同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Automobile Street (02443) has experienced significant volatility since its listing, with recent trends indicating a potential exit from the Hong Kong Stock Connect program due to its market capitalization falling below the required threshold [5][7]. Price Performance - Since reaching a peak of 5.11 HKD on July 18, the stock has entered a downward trend, with a recent low of 3.38 HKD observed on November 21 [2][11]. - The stock has been in a state of decline since its listing, with a drop of over 60% from its initial offering price of 10.2 HKD [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The stock is currently in a downward trend, with all moving averages showing a downward divergence, indicating a fundamental shift in the previous technical trend [2][3]. - The stock has entered an oversold territory, with a low profit-taking ratio of only 0.16%, suggesting a high level of trapped investors [8][15]. Market Capitalization and Stock Connect - The average market capitalization of Automobile Street during the review period is 33.44 billion HKD, significantly below the 61.01 billion HKD threshold for inclusion in the Stock Connect program [5][6]. - The next review for the Stock Connect program is scheduled for February 25, 2025, with the assessment period from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [5][6]. Trading Volume and Investor Behavior - The stock has seen a significant decrease in trading volume, with only five days in the past two months exceeding 500,000 shares traded, indicating a lack of market activity and investor interest [14]. - Despite the downward trend, some mainland investors are buying the stock, possibly speculating on a short-term technical rebound [11][13]. Potential Impact of Stock Connect Removal - If removed from the Stock Connect program, mainland investors will be unable to buy shares, potentially leading to increased selling pressure as approximately 14% of shares could be offloaded [15].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment in the U.S. stock market that began in late October appears to be ongoing, with the market showing signs of being oversold, which creates conditions for a technical rebound. However, upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining the strength of this rebound or whether a deeper correction is needed to attract buyers [1] Group 1 - The market is currently in an oversold state, which may facilitate a technical rebound [1] - Upcoming economic data will play a decisive role in influencing Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations [1] - The strength of the potential rebound or the need for further correction will depend on the impact of the economic data [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term iron water demand stops falling and rebounds, driving the stabilization and rebound of rebar and iron ore. For rebar, the short - term supply is affected by production restrictions and maintenance, and the demand faces seasonal weakening pressure. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with the support of coal and coke costs and start a technical rebound. For iron ore, the short - term import shipment volume decreases slightly, the demand side shows a slight increase in daily iron water volume, and it is expected to maintain a technical rebound [3][5][7][8][10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Futures - This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend driven by the reduction of short - selling main positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3053 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.63% [5] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream rebar regions began to rise slightly, and the overall trading volume was average. As of Friday, the national average rebar quotation increased by 17 yuan to 3242 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price adjustments [5] Fundamental - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32% month - on - month and an increase of 0.73% year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.8%, an increase of 0.99% month - on - month and an increase of 0.22% year - on - year. The average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills was 68.13%, an increase of 1.1% month - on - month and a decrease of 3.3% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.18%, an increase of 2.31% month - on - month and a decrease of 0.85% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 8.54 tons to 200.0 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5] - **Short - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China was 3176 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan month - on - month. The profit of rebar electric furnaces was a loss of 276 yuan, and the loss margin shrank by 4 yuan compared with last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces began to rise slightly this week [5] - **Long - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 3002 yuan, an increase of 52 yuan month - on - month. The profit of rebar blast furnaces was a loss of 112 yuan, an increase of 52 yuan compared with last week. The operating rate of domestic blast furnaces began to decline slightly, while the capacity utilization rate began to rise slightly. The loss margin of long - process steel mills continued to expand [8] - **Demand**: This week, the building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of rebar continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.03 tons to 9.67 tons month - on - month, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 2.15 tons to 216.37 tons month - on - month. In absolute terms, the apparent consumption of rebar remained at a low level in the same period [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 16.37 tons to 576.17 tons. In absolute terms, the current rebar inventory remained at a low level in the same period [8] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, with a premium of 137 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 19 yuan compared with last week. The current rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the probability of rebar basis contraction is relatively large in the later period [8] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the rebar output continues to decline due to production restrictions and maintenance on the supply side. The demand side faces seasonal weakening pressure, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreases slightly. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will maintain high - level consolidation with the support of coal and coke costs and start a technical rebound [8] Iron Ore Futures - This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a slight rebound driven by the reduction of short - selling main positions. As of Friday, it closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 1.58% [8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported ore varieties showed mixed trends, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates continued to decline steadily. The overall trading volume improved. As of Friday, the prices of different iron ore varieties in different ports had different adjustments [8] Fundamental - **Supply**: As of the 10th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2548.6 tons, a decrease of 210.6 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Australia was 1810.8 tons, a decrease of 84.3 tons month - on - month, and the volume shipped to China was 1534.0 tons, a decrease of 71.8 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Brazil was 737.8 tons, a decrease of 126.3 tons month - on - month. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons month - on - month; the arrival volume of six northern ports was 1525.8 tons, a decrease of 60.1 tons month - on - month [10] - **Demand**: The current daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 326.95 tons, an increase of 6.02 tons month - on - month. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot is 106.9 tons, a decrease of 18.0 tons month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with last week and an increase of 0.94 tons compared with last year. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 292.63 tons, an increase of 3.93 tons month - on - month [10] - **Inventory**: As of the 14th, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports continued to increase slightly, currently at 15129.71 tons, an increase of 230.88 tons month - on - month. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9076.01 tons, an increase of 66.07 tons month - on - month [10] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the best - delivery product, the iron ore powder at Rizhao Port, was quoted at 821 yuan/ton, with a premium of 49 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, a contraction of 7 yuan compared with last week. It is expected that the probability of the iron ore basis starting to contract is relatively large [10] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the import shipment volume of iron ore continues to decline slightly, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decrease slightly next week, and the port inventory pressure will be relieved. The daily molten iron volume on the demand side begins to increase slightly, and the steel mills' daily consumption rebounds synchronously. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures will start a technical rebound [10][11]

Core Insights - The market experienced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones index falling by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices remained relatively flat, indicating unresolved core issues in the market [2] - The rebound in U.S. stocks is seen as localized and passive, driven by technical levels rather than a genuine recovery in market confidence [2][3] Market Dynamics - Gold and Bitcoin did not recover like U.S. stocks, suggesting a lack of global market confidence, as these assets are traded continuously and should have rebounded if sentiment improved [2] - The rebound in U.S. stocks began at 23:00, coinciding with a quiet news environment, attributed to a "technical rebound" triggered by hitting important moving averages [3] Trading Behavior - The buying activity was characterized as "passive and forced," with a significant portion of trading volume (37%) related to ETFs, indicating a reactive rather than proactive market response [3] - The market sentiment reflects a temporary rebound due to prior declines rather than a renewed optimism about future prospects, highlighting a lack of active buying, liquidity, and certainty [3] Strategic Insights - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: Winter Defense, Second Line" suggests a strategic repositioning rather than a retreat, emphasizing a more discerning approach to capital allocation [4] - The report highlights a shift in trading logic, with capital preparing for a "second line" phase, indicating a more selective investment environment [5] - Insights into China's market outlook for 2026 suggest potential investment opportunities, alongside an analysis of the U.S.-China AI competition and which stocks may be more favorable for investment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have slightly increased due to a potential technical rebound, following a 1.3% drop in near-month gold futures settlement prices [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Spot gold rose by 0.1%, reaching $3,934.70 per ounce [1] - The commodity strategist from TD Securities, Bart Melek, indicated that gold is consolidating in a lower trading range of $3,800 to $4,050 per ounce [1] - Concerns regarding unclear prospects for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and worries about central bank and retail buying in China have eroded the "perfect" bull market environment for gold [1] Group 2: Future Projections - After the current consolidation phase, the average gold price is expected to reach above $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices rebounded due to a decline in the US dollar and support from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, although the overall sentiment remains cautious with many unfavorable factors impacting gold this week [1] Group 1: Market Influences - The rebound in gold prices is primarily attributed to a technical correction rather than any strong catalysts [1] - The weakening of trade agreements has diminished the positive impact of trade and geopolitical factors on gold [1] - The likelihood of further hawkish rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December has also negatively affected gold prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, the long-term trend for gold is expected to be upward [1] - There is a possibility that gold may continue to experience pullbacks in the short term due to the prevailing market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight increase during Asian trading hours, potentially indicating a technical rebound after a significant drop earlier [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Spot gold rose by 0.2% to $3,347.81 per ounce [1] - The price decline on Monday marked the largest drop in three months [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - President Trump clarified on social media that gold would not be subject to tariffs, which contributed to the price movement [1] - Reports of potential tariffs on gold bars last Friday led to a surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the U.S. July CPI data for insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent weak U.S. non-farm payroll data has led to a significant market shift, resulting in a strong rebound in gold prices, which closed above $3360, indicating a potential short-term trend reversal [1] - The U.S. government has experienced key vacancies in two major economic departments: the Federal Reserve and the Department of Labor, with the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adrianne Kugler and the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau Director [2][5] - President Trump announced plans to nominate new leaders for both the Federal Reserve and the Labor Statistics Bureau within a few days, indicating a potential shift in economic policy direction [4][5] Group 2 - Technical analysis of gold shows a significant rebound signal after a prolonged period of consolidation, with prices recovering from a low of below $3270 and currently stabilizing above the middle Bollinger band at $3340.11, which boosts bullish sentiment [6] - The MACD indicator suggests a potential end to the bearish divergence, with decreasing green column momentum, indicating that a technical rebound may have continuation potential [6] - The RSI indicator has risen from the oversold region to 52.24, breaking the previous weak trend, and if momentum continues, gold prices may test resistance at $3407, with a breakthrough opening up further upside potential [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has boosted global market risk appetite, leading to a technical rebound in major stock indices. However, domestic funds remain cautious, and the trading volume in the two markets is stable. It is expected that the large-cap stock index will continue to fluctuate and repair with low volume in the short term, and the structural opportunities may be concentrated in the main lines of policy-driven and valuation recovery [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: In May, the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. From January to May, the national fixed-asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increased by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively in May. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May, the decline in new construction continued to narrow at a low level, the decline in investment slightly expanded, and the inventory of commercial housing has decreased for three consecutive months [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Iran has expressed its willingness to restart negotiations on the premise that the United States does not participate in the Israeli attack, and hopes to limit the attacks to a limited scope [1]. - **Stock Market Performance**: A-share three major indices fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.35% to close at 3388.73 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.26%. The sector indices rose more and fell less, with the media, communication, computer, and real estate industries leading the gains, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, beauty care, and non-ferrous metal industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.2 trillion yuan. The three major US stock indices closed up across the board, with the Nasdaq rising 1.52% to 19701.21 points [1]. Futures Market - **Basis**: This Friday, the current-month contracts were delivered, and the basis of IF, IH, and IC rebounded. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF increased, and the open interest of all stock index futures decreased [2]. Strategy - Driven by the positive signal of the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the risk appetite of the global market has been repaired, and the main stock indices have shown a technical rebound. The domestic capital market remains cautious, and the trading volume in the two markets is stable. It is expected that the large-cap stock index will continue to fluctuate and repair with low volume in the short term, and the structural opportunities may be concentrated in the main lines of policy-driven and valuation recovery [3]. Chart Summary - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][6]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices, the trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and the margin trading balance [12]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Present the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the basis of stock index futures, and the inter - period spreads of stock index futures [15][35][40].