这个世界总是需要管理者，无论是管理人才还是管理技术。当技术爆发新的能量，旧模式不断拉响警 报，未来的管理会呈现什么样的变化？是与AI共生共舞，抑或以可持续为轴心？管理学的未来会走向 哪一个方向？更多元还是更集中？管理学界和业界仍旧在试探、争论，众说纷纭，难有定论。唯一可以 确定的是，未来没有剧本，只能从过去的理论和眼前的实践中寻找线索，然后思考、推理、判断和验 证。 作为一个始终聚焦管理领域前沿议题、致力于成为管理学界和商界思想原动力的平台，《管理视野》依 然希望以"思维构架未来"，在关于未来的重重迷雾中点一盏灯。我们也坚信，管理学的发展从不局限于 单一地域或单一视角，唯有不断向外寻求养分，汇聚全球学界智慧、碰撞不同文化背景下的认知与洞 见，才能更精准地捕捉领域前沿趋势，为管理实践与教育革新提供更具普适性的参考。 在过去的10年里，近300位来自不同国家和地区、不同研究领域的国际学者在《管理视野》上刊发了他 们的研究成果，越过学术与实践的藩篱，提供了大量极具启发性的洞察和思考。站在这个技术迭代的节 点上，我们希望再次凝聚他们的管理智慧，透过专业的视角提供一些关于未来的指南。 为此，我们发起了"管理的未来与未来 ...

（原标题：平等的幻象：动荡时代的先知） 在全球范围内，彼得·德鲁克一直以"著名管理学家"乃至"管理学之父"的显赫身份为世人所熟知，德鲁 克的这一耀世标签与"管理学"这一学科在二十世纪的强势崛起和发展密不可分。事实上，德鲁克不止是 一位先知型的管理学家，更是一位抱负远大的思想家。早在1993年，英国《经济学人》杂志就给了德鲁 克一个精准的定位："在一个充斥着自大狂和江湖骗子的行业中，他是一个真正具有原创性的思想家。" 然而，对德鲁克本人来说，他很少以"管理学家"自居。他曾经半开玩笑地说，媒体将管理学家称作"大 师"（guru），是因为"江湖术士"（charlatan）这个词太长了而不适合用在新闻标题中。 终其一生，德鲁克所关注和思考的一个焦点问题是：人、组织、社会三者之间的关系。为此，德鲁克在 晚年创造了一个词，称自己为"社会生态学家"（social ecologist）。如果说德鲁克留下的39本书和不计 其数的文章形成了一个浩瀚的思想景观，那么其景深处的源头伫立着的是他的第一本书，也是他的成名 作——《经济人的末日》（1939）。 《经济人的末日》 [ 美 ] 彼得 · 德鲁克 | 著 洪世民 赵志恒 | 译 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a forward-looking perspective on the evolution of AI, proposing three stages: AI Enable, AI Native, and AI Awaken, emphasizing the need for a fundamental rethinking of business systems rather than merely enhancing existing processes with AI [2][3]. Group 1: AI Enable Stage - Most companies are currently in the AI Enable stage, where the logic is to add AI as a plugin to existing processes, resulting in a superficial transformation [4]. - In this stage, the power structure remains unchanged, with humans acting as the central processing unit (CPU) and AI serving as a more powerful external graphics processing unit (GPU) [5]. - The transition from additive to multiplicative logic requires overcoming three technical thresholds: moving from probability fitting to logical reasoning, from text dialogue to tool action, and from statelessness to long-term memory [5][6][7]. Group 2: AI Native Stage - The AI Native stage represents a shift where AI becomes the CPU, and humans focus on strategy and exception management, fundamentally redesigning processes and organizations for AI from the ground up [8]. - Companies must assess their status in this stage by asking critical questions about their dependency on AI for business existence, the flow of operations, and the transformation of data into experiential knowledge [9][10]. Group 3: AI Awaken Stage - The AI Awaken stage raises profound questions about the definition of work and the role of AI as it evolves from an executor to a discoverer, challenging human understanding and decision-making [11][12]. - This stage signifies a potential shift in power dynamics, where humans may relinquish not only execution rights but also the authority to define what is considered "work" [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of AI agents is fundamentally challenging traditional management practices, suggesting a shift from "better management" to "management's exit" in organizations [2][3] Group 1: Traditional Management Limitations - Traditional KPIs are likened to tracks for employees, necessary due to human limitations, but are inadequate for AI agents that possess "eternal memory" [2] - Traditional management tools like KPIs, hierarchical structures, and incentive mechanisms are designed to compensate for human cognitive limitations rather than enhance organizational intelligence [2] Group 2: AI-Native Enterprises - AI-native enterprises must undergo five fundamental rewrites at the genetic level: architecture as intelligence, growth as compounding, memory as evolution, execution as training, and humans as meaning [3] - The ultimate form of an AI-native enterprise focuses on a new operating system centered on "cognitive evolution," moving away from reliance on outdated management logic [3]

Core Insights - The future of management will be fundamentally based on intelligence rather than biology, marking a shift from human-led to AI-augmented enterprises [1][2] - Traditional management systems are seen as corrective measures for human cognitive limitations, which will collapse as AI agents take over execution roles [2][4] - The emergence of AI-native enterprises will redefine organizational structures and operational paradigms, focusing on cognitive evolution rather than resource management [4][5] Summary by Sections Management Paradigm Shift - Management will transition from being human-centered to AI-native, where AI expands human capabilities rather than being managed by humans [1][2] - The introduction of AI agents will disrupt the biological foundations of traditional management, necessitating a complete rethinking of organizational genetics [1][2] Cognitive Anatomy Comparison - A comparison between human employees and AI agents highlights three key differences: continuous memory (AI's eternal memory vs. human's fragile memory), holistic cognition (AI's full alignment vs. human's hierarchical filtering), and endogenous evolution (AI's self-evolving capabilities vs. human motivation-driven evolution) [3][4] Collapse of Traditional Systems - Traditional KPIs are becoming obsolete as AI agents can navigate complex problem spaces without rigid constraints, unlike human-centric systems that were designed to mitigate cognitive shortcomings [4] - The existing supervisory frameworks are shifting from error correction to recalibrating goals, as AI agents understand and execute tasks without the need for constant oversight [4][5] Definition of AI-native Enterprises - AI-native enterprises will require a new operational framework focused on cognitive evolution, characterized by five aspects: architecture as intelligence, growth as compounding, memory as evolution, execution as training, and humans as meaning-makers [5][6] - The demand for talent is shifting towards mid-career professionals with specialized knowledge, as AI reduces the need for generalist analysts [5][6]

Core Insights - The article commemorates the 30th anniversary of Pixar's "Toy Story" and features an unpublished interview with Steve Jobs, emphasizing the enduring nature of storytelling and the importance of talent in creative industries [1][2]. Group 1: Talent and Management Philosophy - Jobs highlights that the core of any enterprise is talent, and he aimed to create an environment where exceptional individuals could thrive without bureaucratic obstacles [5][10]. - Pixar's unique culture allows it to attract top talent from both Hollywood and Silicon Valley, which is rare in the industry [7][8]. - The company has successfully maintained high-quality standards while expanding its workforce from approximately 175 to 300 employees within a year [12]. Group 2: Business Model and Industry Challenges - Jobs discusses the challenges faced by the advertising and special effects sectors, noting a decline in profitability and the difficulty of retaining talent in these areas [18]. - Pixar has exited the advertising business to focus on creating original content, as the need for talented individuals outweighs the benefits of short-term projects [18][20]. Group 3: Storytelling and Technological Advancement - The essence of storytelling remains unchanged despite technological advancements; a good story cannot be transformed by technology alone [26]. - Jobs reflects on the longevity of stories, citing Disney's "Snow White" and the continued relevance of "Toy Story" as examples of timeless narratives that resonate across generations [21][26]. - The complexity of visual storytelling has increased significantly, with rendering times remaining consistent despite advancements in technology, indicating a constant pursuit of higher visual ambitions [23][25].