中信期货分析认为，美国劳动力市场趋势下行，9月美联储降息周期有望重启。美联储未来1-2季度海外 流动性维持扩张趋势，且市场可能阶段性交易美联储独立性的风险，这都对黄金趋势形成利多支撑。风 险在于全球权益市场整体表现强势，新兴市场尤甚，强劲的风险偏好使得复苏交易抬头，贵金属市场吸 引力下降。但基本面的弱现实并未逆转，在此阶段信心或有摇摆。降息+基本面下行的类滞涨组合更利 好黄金，若逻辑切换为降息+复苏组合，黄金的弹性将会受限，白银将更为受益。 8月26日，特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事库克，美联储独立性受质疑，避险情绪升温，金价持续走强创近 两周新高，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.75%报3443.20美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 (518850)涨0.27%，近10个交易日有8个交易日获资金净申购，累计获资金布局1.97亿，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨0.92%。 消息面上，8月26日美国总统特朗普发布致美联储理事库克的信称，解除美联储理事库克的职务，立即 生效。特朗普在信中提及抵押贷款相关指控，称有充分理由解除库克的职务。美联储理事库克表示，特 朗普无权将她从美联储解雇，她也不会辞职。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "oscillating on the strong side" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market remains in a dovish atmosphere after the Jackson Hole meeting, with precious metals oscillating and strengthening. However, the accelerated rise of the domestic equity market and high risk appetite are attracting funds, limiting the upward range of precious metals. With few key economic data this week, the focus is on next week's US labor market data. Before that, the expectation of interest rate cuts may remain positive, and the precious metals market is expected to continue its oscillating and strengthening trend [1][3] - In the medium term, there is optimism about the gold trend, but the strengthening of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The US labor market is on a downward trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is expected to restart in September. Overseas liquidity will likely expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, and potential risks related to the Fed's independence may support the gold trend. However, strong global equity markets, especially in emerging markets, may reduce the attractiveness of the precious metals market. A stagflation - like combination of interest rate cuts and a weakening economy is more beneficial to gold, while a combination of interest rate cuts and recovery will benefit silver more [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Key Information - In July, the annualized total number of new home sales in the US was 652,000, higher than the expected 630,000. The month - on - month decrease was 0.6% [2] - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset believes that a Fed interest - rate cut is appropriate. It will take several months to select a new Fed chair, and Powell is unlikely to regain Trump's favor. Hasset also hopes to establish a sovereign wealth fund, and the government may increase equity stakes in industries other than semiconductors [2] - Moody's warns that 22 US states are on recession alert, with nearly one - third of GDP affected [2] 3.2 Price Logic - The precious metals market is influenced by the dovish atmosphere after the Jackson Hole meeting, but the high - risk appetite in the domestic equity market restricts the rise of precious metals. The market is expected to continue its oscillating and strengthening trend before next week's US labor - market data. In the medium term, there are both positive and negative factors for the gold market, and different economic combinations will affect the performance of gold and silver [3] 3.3 Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between 3300 and 3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between 36 and 40 [3] 3.4 Index Performance - The precious metals index on August 25, 2025, had a daily increase of 1.19%, a 5 - day increase of 1.06%, a 1 - month increase of 1.01%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.49% [46] - The comprehensive commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all showed increases, with the comprehensive commodity index up 0.87%, the commodity 20 index up 0.97%, and the industrial products index up 1.02% [44]