Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in canola meal prices, with a maximum drop of nearly 3% observed in a single day, influenced by recent developments in Canada-China agricultural cooperation [3][8] - Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China resulted in a preliminary agreement to enhance agricultural cooperation and food security, including the reactivation of the Canada-China Agricultural Joint Committee [3][8] - Under the new agreement, Canada anticipates that China will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola seeds by March 1, leading to a substantial decrease in the comprehensive tax rate to approximately 15% [3][8] Group 2 - Canola meal prices are expected to follow the trends of soybean meal prices, with recent favorable U.S. soybean export data showing net sales exceeding 2 million tons, surpassing market expectations [4][9] - The NOPA reported a December soybean crushing volume of 224.991 million bushels, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.1% and a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, marking the second-highest level in history [4][9] - Domestic soybean crushing reached 1.99 million tons, showing an increase but falling short of expectations, while the market remains in a destocking phase with upstream prices being supported [4][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The m2605 soybean meal contract is in a stage of fluctuating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The foreign market shows that the tight fundamentals of US soybeans in the new year still support the price of CBOT soybeans, but the expected high - yield of South American new crops suppresses its price. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient before the end of the year, and the supply gap in the first quarter is expected to be limited. The demand from the downstream feed and aquaculture industry still provides support, and the spot basis is expected to strengthen gradually with inventory digestion [3]. - The RM605 rapeseed meal contract is also in a stage of fluctuating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. Globally, the supply - demand pattern of rapeseed in 2025/26 is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In the domestic market, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed increases the import cost, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to tighten. However, the off - season of downstream aquaculture and the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are not conducive to the substitution consumption of rapeseed meal [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The recent continuous purchase of US soybeans by China and the limited guidance of the December USDA report suggest that the CBOT is expected to operate in the range of 1100 - 1150 cents. The USDA report shows that the estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 remains unchanged from November, and the production forecasts of Argentina and Brazil are also maintained. The US soybean price was weakly volatile this week, supported by China's purchase and affected by the neutral - bearish USDA report and the expected high - yield in South America [15][16]. - As of the week ending December 05, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.45 dollars per bushel, a 2.00% decrease from the previous week and a 13.95% increase from the same period last year. As of November 13, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 80.66 tons, and the export shipment was 155.28 tons, a 67% increase from the previous week and a 24% increase from the four - week average [17]. 3.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazil's soybean sowing is nearing completion, with a sowing progress of 90.3% as of December 6. Argentina's sowing progress is 4.7%, lagging behind last year by 53.8%. The La Nina phenomenon has appeared, and the expected precipitation in Argentina in the next two weeks is decreasing. The export volume of Brazilian soybeans in December is expected to reach 333 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal is expected to reach 188 tons [31][32][33]. - CONAB expects Brazil's soybean production in 2025/26 to reach 1.771238 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 561.31 tons or 3.3%, and the sowing area to reach 4893.56 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 158.95 million hectares or 3.4% [33]. 3.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The estimated yield of new Canadian rapeseed has further increased, and the export pressure persists, leading to a continued weakening of international rapeseed prices. In 2025/26, the global rapeseed production increased by 300 tons month - on - month and 2027 tons year - on - year, with a growth rate of 10.7%, mainly due to the yield increase in Canada and the EU. The global rapeseed inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio have reached recent highs [63][64]. - As of November 23, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed decreased by 65% from the previous week to 9.95 tons. From August 1 to November 23, 2025, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 192.84 tons, a 47.8% decrease from the same period last year. The commercial inventory of Canadian rapeseed was 137.43 tons [64]. 3.4 Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - In the short term, the state - reserve release rhythm affects market sentiment, but the near - term supply pressure limits the upward space of the market. The far - month contracts are still trading on the expectations of high - yield in South America and US soybean demand. China imported 810.7 tons of soybeans in November 2025, a decrease of 137.30 tons from October and a 13.32% increase from November 2024. In 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans from January to November was 10378.14 tons, a 6.89% increase year - on - year [76][77]. - The estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills in December 2025 is 904.8 tons, 800 tons in January 2026, and 400 tons in February. The estimated arrival of imported rapeseed at coastal areas in December 2025 is 12 tons, and the same amount is expected in January and February 2026 [78]. 3.5 Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Startup Rate - This week, the startup rate of oil mills continued to decline, and rapeseed pressing basically stopped. As of December 5, the actual soybean pressing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 205.58 tons, a decrease of 14.50 tons from the previous week and 8.98 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual startup rate was 66.55%. The estimated pressing volume in the 50th week (December 6 - 12) is 221.16 tons, and the estimated startup rate is 60.84% [93][94]. - The rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons this week, with a startup rate of 0%. The estimated rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills next week is 0 tons, and the estimated startup rate is 0% [94]. 3.6 Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans shows different trends for different origins and shipping periods. The soybean crushing profit also varies by contract and origin. The import cost and freight of soybeans from different regions such as Argentina, the US West Coast, the US Gulf Coast, and Brazil are presented in the report, and the data is updated daily [100][105]. - The import cost of Canadian rapeseed and the pressing profit of rapeseed are also provided, with daily - updated data [107]. 3.7 Inventory - The inventory of soybean meal at major national oil mills has slightly decreased, but the overall inventory pressure still needs to be digested. The rapeseed inventory has continued to decline. As of December 5, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 715.52 tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and a 30.80% increase from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 116.19 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week and a 70.74% increase from the same period last year [107][108]. - The rapeseed inventory at major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country totaled 47.08 tons, a decrease of 2.96 tons from the previous week [108]. 3.8 Downstream Demand - The downstream procurement and sales have warmed up, with spot purchases mainly driven by rigid demand, and the far - month basis has seen some trading volume. As of December 11, the total national soybean meal trading volume was 33.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22.73 tons. The spot trading volume was 3.45 tons, and the far - month basis trading volume was 58.09 tons. The total soybean meal pick - up volume was 96.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.93 tons [122][123]. - The monthly feed production and prices of livestock and poultry feed, as well as the prices and breeding profits of livestock and poultry, are presented in the report, showing the downstream demand situation [128][134]. 3.9 Basis and Spread - The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and contracts is provided. The average spot - futures price difference in coastal main markets this week was 290 - 340 yuan per ton, an increase of 103 - 133 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of December 12, the basis of the May soybean meal contract in Rizhao was 305 yuan per ton, and the basis of the May rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 158 yuan per ton [143]. - The month - to - month and variety spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the spreads between the January, May, and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, are also presented in the report [174].