Group 1 - On June 23, the spot price of white sugar in Nanning was quoted at 6050.00 CNY/ton, which is 329.00 CNY/ton higher than the futures main price of 5721.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market closed on June 23 with the main contract for white sugar at 5721.00 CNY/ton, showing an increase of 0.46%, with a daily trading volume of 192,057 lots [1] - The price list for various grades of sugar shows a range of market prices, with food-grade sugar from Hubei quoted at 6500 CNY/ton and industrial-grade sugar from different regions priced between 1500 CNY/ton and 3000 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 4398 CNY/ton with a 15% tariff quota and 5621 CNY/ton without the quota, while Thai raw sugar costs about 4434 CNY/ton with a 15% tariff and 5668 CNY/ton without the quota [2] - Pakistan's government has announced plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar despite previously allowing sugar exports [3] Group 3 - According to Guotou Anxin Futures research, the production data from Brazil's central-south region in late May was bearish, with an increase in both cane crushing and sugar production year-on-year [4] - Domestic sugar and syrup import volumes are low this year, leading to an increase in the market share of domestic sugar, which is selling quickly and has low inventory pressure [4] - Recent rainfall in Guangxi has alleviated the water shortage for sugarcane, and attention is being paid to rainfall conditions in the third quarter [4] - Overall, the trend for US sugar remains downward, with insufficient domestic bullish factors, and sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [4]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) predicts that sugar consumption in India may decline to approximately 28 million tons in the 2024-25 fiscal year [1] - As of mid-May, India's sugar production reached 25.744 million tons, with 533 sugar mills having completed their crushing operations [1] - In the third week of May 2025, Brazil exported a total of 919,200 tons of white sugar, a significant decrease from 2.8076 million tons in the same period last year, with an average daily shipment of 83,600 tons, down 37.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Insights - According to Everbright Futures, raw sugar prices have weakened slightly due to smooth harvesting progress, with a bearish outlook unless macroeconomic factors provide support [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that favorable weather conditions in Brazil in May are expected to boost sugarcane and sugar production, while domestic sugar and syrup imports have significantly decreased, leading to a quicker sales pace and lighter inventory pressure [3] - The recent increase in rainfall in Guangxi has alleviated the water shortage for sugarcane, suggesting that drought conditions will not significantly impact sugarcane growth [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - The domestic sugar price has limited upside and downside space, oscillating between 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton. The international sugar price also has limited fluctuation due to mixed fundamental factors, and macro factors like crude oil price fluctuations also impact it. Short - term trading is recommended [58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures prices fluctuated narrowly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.27%. ICE sugar futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 0.9% [8] Spot Price and Basis - Not elaborated in the provided content National Production and Sales - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in April was 65.22%, 7.49 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18] Sugar Imports - In March, imports were 80,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar July contract price of 18 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,937 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 6,288 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota import cost is 4,897 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 6,235 yuan/ton [23] Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in April was 3.8626 million tons, a decrease of 344,800 tons compared to the same period last year [26] ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts plus forecasts was 32,930, a decrease of 329 from the previous week. There were 31,553 warehouse receipts and 1,377 valid forecasts [34] Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of April, the cumulative crushing volume was 34.257 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.98%, and the sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62% [38] Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio - The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 45.27%, compared to 46.98% in the same period last year [40] Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in April were 1.5526 million tons, a decrease of 335,000 tons compared to the same period last year [47] International Main Production Area Weather - Precipitation in India has increased. Rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil has decreased, which is beneficial for sugarcane crushing [54][55] 2. Market Outlook - Domestic market: The domestic sales progress is the fastest since 2025, with sugar mills completing nearly 70% of sales in an increased - production context, leading to strong industry reluctance to sell. However, due to the foreign market falling below 17 cents/pound, there is an import profit in the domestic market, and imports are expected to increase significantly. With the recent issuance of import quotas (about 2.6 million tons), sugar supply is relatively abundant. Although it is the off - season for consumption, market expectations for consumption are not overly pessimistic as the weather warms up. - International market: The production data in the second half of April in southern Brazil was significantly lower than market expectations, providing short - term support for sugar prices. There are concerns about the total sugar production due to the low sugar - making ratio. India's sugar ending inventory is expected to be 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic demand before the new sugar is on the market [58]

Market Review - On Tuesday, sugar futures prices declined, with the main September contract closing at 5936 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Lagos data, Nigeria's raw sugar imports for the 2025-26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 12% compared to the previous year [2] - The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts that Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year will reach 45.875 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [2] - As of April 30, over 30 sugar enterprises in Yunnan have commenced sugarcane processing, exceeding half of the total number of sugar factories that opened this season, indicating that the province has entered the processing phase [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that while Brazil experienced less rainfall in the first quarter, the high sugar-alcohol price ratio is expected to maintain a high sugar production ratio, leading to uncertainty in production levels. The focus is shifting towards consumption and imports, with good domestic sugar sales and a significant reduction in imported sugar supply, creating bullish factors on both supply and demand sides. However, the trend for US sugar remains downward, and domestic supply is ample, leading to expectations of price fluctuations with a cautious trading approach [3] - Guoxin Futures reported a decline in raw sugar futures, with market attention on the May raw sugar contract expiration. The May contract fell by 0.22 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.2%. Weak demand in the spot market may lead to a large delivery of the May contract, potentially reaching about 2 million tons. CONAB indicated that Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year is expected to reach record highs due to favorable market conditions, despite a year-on-year decline in sugarcane production. Short-term focus is on weather conditions in major production areas, with heavy rains in Guangxi alleviating drought conditions but raising concerns about potential flooding. A short-term trading strategy is recommended [3]