Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of soft commodities is complex with different trends in each sector. Most sectors suggest a wait - and - see approach due to various influencing factors such as trade negotiations, weather, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. Spot cotton trading was fair with positive trader purchases and a firm basis. Cotton yarn enterprises sold at market prices, but market confidence was low with decreasing downstream operation and rising inventory. As of end - May, commercial cotton inventory was 345.87 million tons, down 69.39 million tons month - on - month and 31.54 million tons year - on - year. Suggested to wait and see or go long at low prices [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In Brazil, May 1 - 15 production data was mixed with lower cane crushing and sugar output but higher sugar - making ratio. In the Northern Hemisphere, expected above - average rainfall in Q3 in India and Thailand is beneficial for cane growth. In China, as of end - May, cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.1 million tons year - on - year; sales ratio was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster; industrial inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 32.21 million tons year - on - year. US sugar trend is downward, so Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited. Expected short - term oscillation and suggested to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices were weak. Spot prices were stable. Demand entered the off - season with lower apple demand due to more seasonal fruits and hot weather. Market focus shifted to new - season production estimates. Cold snaps and winds in the western产区 may affect fruit - setting and quality, but overall low - temperature impact on yield was small, mainly increasing fruit rust risk. Flower quantity was sufficient, so production estimate was bearish. Suggested to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU&WR rose, BR fell slightly. Domestic natural rubber prices were stable to rising, synthetic rubber prices were stable, and upstream butadiene port prices were stable. Global natural rubber supply entered the growth period. Last week, domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly, while upstream butadiene plant operating rate rose slightly. Domestic full - steel tire operating rate fell slightly, semi - steel tire operating rate dropped significantly, and tire inventory decreased. Qingdao natural rubber inventory fell to 60.55 million tons, Chinese butadiene port inventory fell to 2.7 million tons, and Chinese cis - butadiene rubber social inventory fell to 1.35 million tons. Suggested to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fell slightly. Spot prices were stable. As of June 5, 2025, Chinese pulp port inventory was 215.7 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from the previous period. May imports were 301.6 million tons, and January - May cumulative imports were 1,554.7 million tons, up 2.1% year - on - year. Macro - level Sino - US trade showed positive signals. Domestic port inventory was high, demand was weak, and supply was ample. Pulp valuation was low with strong support near the previous low. Suggested to wait and see for long - entry opportunities on significant pullbacks [7] Logs - Futures prices oscillated. Spot prices were stable. In June, New Zealand log prices stopped falling and stabilized, with a $2 month - on - month increase in 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine CFR price. After the increase in foreign quotes, the spot price bottom rose, supporting futures prices. In the off - season, port daily outbound volume was over 60,000 cubic meters. As of May 30, national port log inventory was 3.41 million cubic meters, down 20,000 cubic meters month - on - month. New Zealand log shipments will remain low due to poor profits, but domestic demand is in the off - season, so price rebound momentum is weak. Suggested to wait and see [8]

Market Review - On Tuesday, sugar futures prices declined, with the main September contract closing at 5936 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Lagos data, Nigeria's raw sugar imports for the 2025-26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 12% compared to the previous year [2] - The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts that Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year will reach 45.875 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [2] - As of April 30, over 30 sugar enterprises in Yunnan have commenced sugarcane processing, exceeding half of the total number of sugar factories that opened this season, indicating that the province has entered the processing phase [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that while Brazil experienced less rainfall in the first quarter, the high sugar-alcohol price ratio is expected to maintain a high sugar production ratio, leading to uncertainty in production levels. The focus is shifting towards consumption and imports, with good domestic sugar sales and a significant reduction in imported sugar supply, creating bullish factors on both supply and demand sides. However, the trend for US sugar remains downward, and domestic supply is ample, leading to expectations of price fluctuations with a cautious trading approach [3] - Guoxin Futures reported a decline in raw sugar futures, with market attention on the May raw sugar contract expiration. The May contract fell by 0.22 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.2%. Weak demand in the spot market may lead to a large delivery of the May contract, potentially reaching about 2 million tons. CONAB indicated that Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year is expected to reach record highs due to favorable market conditions, despite a year-on-year decline in sugarcane production. Short-term focus is on weather conditions in major production areas, with heavy rains in Guangxi alleviating drought conditions but raising concerns about potential flooding. A short-term trading strategy is recommended [3]