白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团白 | | 地区 | 2025/9/26 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 5890 | 0 | 0 | 438 | 18 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5810 | 0 | -100 | 458 | 18 | | いで貨 | 云南 | 大理 | 5675 | 0 | -140 | 363 | 18 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 5900 | 0 | 100 | 348 | 18 | | 数盘 | | SR09 | 5452 | -18 | SR09-01 | | | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5478 | -7 | | -26 | -11 | | 国 | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 1529 | 0. 0052 | ice原 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Paper pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing supply - demand, price, and inventory information, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing or trading within a range [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and declined, with weak spot trading but good pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new - cotton listing. The acquisition of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton is expected to start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with the output forecast ranging from 720 to 770 tons. Ginning factories are cautious about new - cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly. At the beginning of new - cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. Domestic peak - season demand is weak, and spinning profits are poor, which drags down the cotton price. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations need further follow - up. After the short - term breakdown of Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year, and the supply pressure is less than last year. In the medium term, based on the sugar - alcohol ratio, if the current ratio is maintained, Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year, so there is still pressure on the upside of US sugar. Attention should be paid to subsequent production. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. This year's sales rhythm is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. Since July, rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. Typhoon Kajiki is expected to have little impact on sugarcane growth, and subsequent growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price is strongly running. Affected by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the demand for cold - storage apples has increased. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with the pre - order price of pre - harvested apples remaining high. From a fundamental perspective, the high price of early - maturing apples has raised the market's expectation for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, according to bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In addition, farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than market expectations. Overall, although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage inventory in the new season will be higher than expected, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&IR oscillated weakly, and BR oscillated strongly. The wait - and - see sentiment in the futures market has increased. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber have stabilized with a slight increase, the import price of butadiene in the external market has remained stable, and the prices in the Thai raw - material market have mostly declined. In terms of supply, the global natural - rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and there has been a lot of rainfall in the main producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene - rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants in maintenance and low - load operation. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants has also decreased significantly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly last week, and tire enterprises maintained normal production, but the inventory of finished - tire products increased. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao announced by Longzhong this week continued to decline to 461,200 tons, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber announced by Zhuochuang last week fell back to 12,600 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rebounded to 27,800 tons this week. Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, and the supply and inventory of synthetic rubber both decrease. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk preference is cautious. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [5] Paper Pulp - The paper - pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon is 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish is 4,220 yuan/ton, and the prices are stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper - pulp ports in China is 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.7%. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts. China's paper - pulp import volume in August 2025 was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 227,000 tons. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the paper - pulp supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in port inventory. The paper - pulp demand is still average. A wait - and - see approach or a trading - within - a - range strategy is recommended [6] Logs - The futures price is oscillating. The mainstream spot price has remained stable. In terms of supply, the weekly arrival volume decreased month - on - month. The price of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price has been weak, and the import willingness of traders has declined. In addition, the external - market price is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. In terms of demand, although it is the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average outbound volume during the off - season has remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction has been smooth. In terms of inventory, the total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and there is insufficient upward momentum for prices in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of soft commodities is complex with different trends in each sector. Most sectors suggest a wait - and - see approach due to various influencing factors such as trade negotiations, weather, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. Spot cotton trading was fair with positive trader purchases and a firm basis. Cotton yarn enterprises sold at market prices, but market confidence was low with decreasing downstream operation and rising inventory. As of end - May, commercial cotton inventory was 345.87 million tons, down 69.39 million tons month - on - month and 31.54 million tons year - on - year. Suggested to wait and see or go long at low prices [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In Brazil, May 1 - 15 production data was mixed with lower cane crushing and sugar output but higher sugar - making ratio. In the Northern Hemisphere, expected above - average rainfall in Q3 in India and Thailand is beneficial for cane growth. In China, as of end - May, cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.1 million tons year - on - year; sales ratio was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster; industrial inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 32.21 million tons year - on - year. US sugar trend is downward, so Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited. Expected short - term oscillation and suggested to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices were weak. Spot prices were stable. Demand entered the off - season with lower apple demand due to more seasonal fruits and hot weather. Market focus shifted to new - season production estimates. Cold snaps and winds in the western产区 may affect fruit - setting and quality, but overall low - temperature impact on yield was small, mainly increasing fruit rust risk. Flower quantity was sufficient, so production estimate was bearish. Suggested to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU&WR rose, BR fell slightly. Domestic natural rubber prices were stable to rising, synthetic rubber prices were stable, and upstream butadiene port prices were stable. Global natural rubber supply entered the growth period. Last week, domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly, while upstream butadiene plant operating rate rose slightly. Domestic full - steel tire operating rate fell slightly, semi - steel tire operating rate dropped significantly, and tire inventory decreased. Qingdao natural rubber inventory fell to 60.55 million tons, Chinese butadiene port inventory fell to 2.7 million tons, and Chinese cis - butadiene rubber social inventory fell to 1.35 million tons. Suggested to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fell slightly. Spot prices were stable. As of June 5, 2025, Chinese pulp port inventory was 215.7 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from the previous period. May imports were 301.6 million tons, and January - May cumulative imports were 1,554.7 million tons, up 2.1% year - on - year. Macro - level Sino - US trade showed positive signals. Domestic port inventory was high, demand was weak, and supply was ample. Pulp valuation was low with strong support near the previous low. Suggested to wait and see for long - entry opportunities on significant pullbacks [7] Logs - Futures prices oscillated. Spot prices were stable. In June, New Zealand log prices stopped falling and stabilized, with a $2 month - on - month increase in 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine CFR price. After the increase in foreign quotes, the spot price bottom rose, supporting futures prices. In the off - season, port daily outbound volume was over 60,000 cubic meters. As of May 30, national port log inventory was 3.41 million cubic meters, down 20,000 cubic meters month - on - month. New Zealand log shipments will remain low due to poor profits, but domestic demand is in the off - season, so price rebound momentum is weak. Suggested to wait and see [8]

Market Review - On Tuesday, sugar futures prices declined, with the main September contract closing at 5936 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Lagos data, Nigeria's raw sugar imports for the 2025-26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 12% compared to the previous year [2] - The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts that Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year will reach 45.875 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [2] - As of April 30, over 30 sugar enterprises in Yunnan have commenced sugarcane processing, exceeding half of the total number of sugar factories that opened this season, indicating that the province has entered the processing phase [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that while Brazil experienced less rainfall in the first quarter, the high sugar-alcohol price ratio is expected to maintain a high sugar production ratio, leading to uncertainty in production levels. The focus is shifting towards consumption and imports, with good domestic sugar sales and a significant reduction in imported sugar supply, creating bullish factors on both supply and demand sides. However, the trend for US sugar remains downward, and domestic supply is ample, leading to expectations of price fluctuations with a cautious trading approach [3] - Guoxin Futures reported a decline in raw sugar futures, with market attention on the May raw sugar contract expiration. The May contract fell by 0.22 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.2%. Weak demand in the spot market may lead to a large delivery of the May contract, potentially reaching about 2 million tons. CONAB indicated that Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year is expected to reach record highs due to favorable market conditions, despite a year-on-year decline in sugarcane production. Short-term focus is on weather conditions in major production areas, with heavy rains in Guangxi alleviating drought conditions but raising concerns about potential flooding. A short-term trading strategy is recommended [3]