Group 1: Fund Manager Sentiment - Fund managers' sentiment has become more optimistic, with cash levels decreasing from 4.8% to 4.5% in May, indicating increased confidence [1] - Approximately 17% of investors have reduced their exposure to the US dollar, the highest level since May 2006, while 40% of investors wish to increase protection against dollar depreciation [1] - The proportion of investors believing the US dollar is overvalued has decreased by 12 percentage points to 57%, marking the largest monthly decline since September 2023 [1] Group 2: Currency Valuation Perspectives - About 13% of investors now believe the British pound is overvalued, the highest level in four months, up from 8% in April [1] - The percentage of investors considering the euro undervalued has risen significantly, with 22% now holding this view, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous month, the largest monthly increase since August 2020 [1] - The perception of gold being overvalued has reached its highest level since May 2008, with 45% of investors holding this view, up from 34% in April [1] Group 3: Economic Growth Outlook - Investor pessimism regarding global economic growth has eased, with a net 59% expecting a slowdown, down from 82% in April [2] - Only 1% of investors anticipate a recession, a significant drop from 42% in April, with a consensus forming around a "soft landing" scenario [2] - 61% of investors now expect a soft landing, an increase from 37% in April, while expectations for a hard landing have decreased from 49% to 26% [2] Group 4: Systemic Risk Factors - 43% of investors identify trade wars as the most likely trigger for a systemic credit crisis, followed by the US shadow banking system at 25% [2] - The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of tariff reductions, which may have influenced investor sentiment positively [2] Group 5: US Stock Market Dynamics - Fund managers have reduced their holdings in US stocks by 38%, the highest level in two years, indicating a cautious approach [3] - The ongoing stock market rally may force investors to chase prices, as many missed opportunities during the previous month's rebound [2][3] - The "no landing" scenario is seen as favorable for US stocks, emerging markets, small-cap stocks, and energy, but could negatively impact gold [3]

Core Insights - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that 43% of investors believe trade conflicts are the most likely trigger for a systemic credit crisis [1] - The second most cited source of potential credit crisis is the shadow banking sector, with 25% of investors identifying it as a concern [1] - The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of tariff reductions, and the bank noted that the outcomes of US-China trade talks have "prevented economic recession or credit events" [1]