关注年末市场隐藏主线和银行板块投资机会 20251117 摘要 M1 数据虽有修复迹象，但受去年低基数影响，对 A 股支撑有限。机构 关注 2026 年预期，偏好低估值且具基本面支撑板块，短期汇率及中美 利差对市场刺激作用较弱。 9 月以来 A 股受海外流动性青睐但波动大。年度数据看，科技、金融、 商品材料及消费品、能源板块流入较强，工业品、电信、公共事业流入 相对较小。 预计 12 月中央经济工作会议将指导 2026 年一季度。反内卷、红利低 波主题突出，家电、农业、工业金属等中上游行业估值偏低，新质生产 力是未来政策重点。 银行业前三季度业绩受非息业务扰动，但长期回升趋势不变。存贷款规 模增长、息差企稳、中收回暖支撑营收修复，政策支持下资产质量预计 平稳，基本面拐点将至。 上市银行前三季度营收增速 0.9%，净利润增速 1.46%。三季度单季营 收增速 0.62%，净利润增速 2.8%，非息业务波动及减值拨备释放是主 要原因。 Q&A 近期市场的整体投资环境和边际变化如何？ 目前市场的不确定性依然存在，且近期处于盘整状态。11 月份是政策空窗期， 政策预期不强烈，需等待 12 月份的中央经济工作会议和中央 ...

Group 1 - The three major indices collectively rose on July 10, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,500 points. The Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890) closed up 0.57% at 1.230 CNY, with a trading volume of 3.21 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.59% [1][2] - In terms of liquidity, the net inflow over the past five trading days was 628 million CNY, and the net inflow over the last 20 trading days was 1.753 billion CNY. As of July 9, 2025, the circulating scale of the Hongli Low Volatility ETF reached 20.343 billion CNY, making it the only low volatility theme ETF in the A-share market with a scale exceeding 20 billion CNY [1][2] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities believes that the recent revision of the People's Bank of China's cross-border payment system rules is expected to further promote the internationalization of the RMB and assist banks in developing cross-border business. The rule optimization will help banks expand their participation in cross-border RMB payments and financial market business [3] - Huaxi Securities noted that despite a significant rise in the banking index, the overall price-to-book ratio remains relatively low, at 0.6 as of June 25, 2025, which is in the 32nd percentile of the past ten years. This low valuation level, combined with regulatory support for long-term capital entering the market, is likely to attract medium- to long-term capital allocation to the banking sector [3] Group 3 - The Hongli Low Volatility ETF was established on December 19, 2018, with a performance benchmark based on the CSI Low Volatility Index. The latest report indicates that the ETF's top holdings include Chengdu Bank, Youngor, Industrial Bank, and others, with a total holding value of approximately 3.722 billion CNY [4] - For investors seeking stable returns and low-risk volatility, or those looking for bond alternative assets without a stock account, the Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890) offers linked funds for investment participation [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the active trading of the Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890), which has seen significant inflows and reached a new high in scale [1][4] - The ETF has recorded a cumulative return of 123.74% since its inception, with an annualized return of 13.43% [4][5] - Recent financial policies introduced by the central bank and regulatory bodies are expected to stabilize market expectations and enhance risk appetite among investors [3] Group 2 - The ETF has experienced net inflows of 3.3 billion yuan over the past five days and 9.14 billion yuan over the past twenty days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The financial policies are anticipated to support mid-to-long-term capital entering the market, particularly benefiting large-cap stocks [3] - The market sentiment is expected to remain cautious due to ongoing uncertainties, with a potential rotation between defensive and growth styles [3]