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红利研究(1):为什么是银行?终点又在何处
China Post Securities· 2025-07-14 10:12
Group 1 - The report highlights that dividend stocks can continue to rise due to a low interest rate environment, which favors the upward valuation of dividends [4][15][28] - The banking sector stands out among dividend stocks because it meets the perpetual growth dividend hypothesis, supported by stable future net profits and cash flows [5][41] - The expected peak of the banking sector's performance is analyzed through a model that links dividend yields to bond yields, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% for the banking index [6][45] Group 2 - The report explains that the high dividend yield of dividend stocks serves as an attractive return source for funds facing a scarcity of debt assets, particularly in a liquidity trap [16][25] - It notes that the overall investment return rate has declined, leading to a preference for dividend stocks over lower-risk debt assets [19][28] - The analysis of the banking sector's dividend performance reveals that it has maintained a stable growth in undistributed profits, unlike other sectors such as coal, which face cyclical downturns [37][41]