Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 81.59 CNY [7][14]. Core Views - The company is currently experiencing a downward adjustment, moving towards an earnings bottom, with expectations of stable growth and high dividends, positioning it as a quasi-debt asset [3][14]. - The company's revenue and net profit for Q2 2025 have decreased significantly by 43.67% and 62.66% year-on-year, respectively, indicating ongoing pressure in the market [14]. - Despite the current challenges, there is potential for recovery as the industry cycle improves, and the company is expected to benefit from a decline in risk-free yields [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 33,126 million CNY, with projections of 28,876 million CNY for 2024 and a further decline to 20,923 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.8% and 27.5%, respectively [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop from 10,016 million CNY in 2023 to 6,673 million CNY in 2024 and further to 4,067 million CNY in 2025, marking a decline of 33.4% and 39.1% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from 6.65 CNY in 2023 to 2.70 CNY in 2025 [5]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 105,210 million CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 63.83 CNY to 99.19 CNY [8]. - The current stock price is 69.84 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.35 for 2023, increasing to 25.48 for 2025 [14][8]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin for Q2 2025 has decreased to 73.4%, with a net profit margin dropping to 19.0%, reflecting significant pressure on profitability [14]. - The company has maintained a strong dividend payout ratio, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders despite current earnings challenges [14].

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is transitioning from a price-driven logic to a market share-driven logic, moving from growth assets to dividend assets, indicating that companies need to enhance market share for growth rather than relying on price increases [1][3][5] - The current market is characterized by a bottoming out of channel profits while performance has not yet reached its bottom, presenting left-side investment opportunities [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Demand-Side Factors**: The industry is influenced by demand-side factors such as credit expansion and per capita income, with performance fluctuations categorized into channel bottom, performance bottom, and inventory bottom [1][4] - **Investment Focus**: Investors should focus on channel bottom and performance bottom, as inventory bottom tends to lag [4] - **Policy Impact**: High-end consumption restrictions have led to a decline in channel profits since 2022, with expectations that by mid-2026, sales and revenue will align, potentially marking the performance and inventory bottom [1][9] - **Market Characteristics**: The current cycle shows price clearing and a trend towards larger brands, with top brands like Moutai demonstrating stronger risk resistance and better inventory cycles [1][11] - **Long-Term Trends**: The industry's logic is evolving due to economic deleveraging and demographic changes, leading to a shift from high-end to affordable consumption, necessitating companies to adapt to this trend [5][13] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The valuation framework for the white liquor industry may shift from PE and PEG to PBR, with investment returns increasingly derived from stable performance increments and dividends, indicating a transition towards bond-like assets [2][15] - **Investment Opportunities**: Current market conditions suggest a focus on high-frequency signals, such as Moutai's transaction prices, which reflect supply and demand dynamics [10] - **Short-Term Outlook**: The white liquor sector is seen as having absolute return potential, although it is more of a short-term rebound opportunity rather than a long-term trend [16] Changes in Underlying Logic - The underlying logic of the white liquor industry has changed, with a reduced emphasis on investment and luxury attributes and a strengthened focus on fast-moving consumer goods attributes [1][13] - The shift from price logic to market share logic means that companies that can increase market share will achieve higher valuations [14] Key Conditions for Transition - For the industry to transition from deep-cycle growth stocks to bond-like assets, it must achieve stability in growth expectations, free cash flow, and maintain high ROE [19] Conclusion - The white liquor industry is at a critical juncture, with significant changes in market dynamics and investment logic. Investors should remain vigilant about policy impacts, demand-side factors, and the evolving valuation framework to identify potential opportunities and risks in the sector [1][2][3][5][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Accumulate" with a target price of 2163.23 CNY [5][12]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in performance in Q2 2025, with total revenue for H1 2025 reaching 91.094 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 45.403 billion CNY, up 8.9% year-on-year [2][12]. - The report indicates that the company plans for a total revenue growth of 9% for the entire year [2]. - The company is actively taking measures to boost market confidence, including product launches and share buybacks [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Guizhou Moutai are as follows: - 2023A: 150.56 billion CNY - 2024A: 174.14 billion CNY - 2025E: 189.78 billion CNY - 2026E: 203.68 billion CNY - 2027E: 217.15 billion CNY - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2023A: 74.73 billion CNY - 2024A: 86.23 billion CNY - 2025E: 92.28 billion CNY - 2026E: 98.78 billion CNY - 2027E: 105.59 billion CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 CNY - 2024A: 68.64 CNY - 2025E: 73.46 CNY - 2026E: 78.63 CNY - 2027E: 84.05 CNY [4][12]. Market Performance - As of August 12, 2025, the stock price was 1437.04 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 1261.00-1748.00 CNY [6]. - The market capitalization is approximately 1,805.206 million CNY [6]. - The dividend yield is reported at 3.6% [2][12]. Sales and Revenue Insights - In Q2 2025, the revenue from Moutai liquor was 32 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while series liquor revenue was 6.7 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7% [12]. - The company is focusing on capturing market demand and has initiated a share buyback program, completing 5.3 billion CNY of buybacks as of August 4, 2025 [12].

格隆汇8月11日｜A股市场白酒股走强，其中，古井贡酒涨超6%，伊力特涨超5%，山西汾酒、迎驾贡酒 涨超4%，舍得酒业、水井坊涨超3%，泸州老窖、金徽酒、皇台酒业、酒鬼酒、贵州茅台涨超2%。 国 泰海通证券发布研报称，政策变量加速白酒行业出清，当下产业加速向业绩底迈进，预计最早在2026上 半年有望达到业绩底，结合批价等高频信号，白酒股价有望先于需求侧出现趋势级拐点；同时，产业逻 辑在颠覆中重塑，份额逻辑将逐步取代量价逻辑，长周期下，把握白酒的"类债资产" 属性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The policy variables are accelerating the clearing of the liquor industry, with the industry moving towards performance bottoms, and stock prices are expected to turn before demand-side recovery [1][3][18] Mid-Cycle Analysis - The core contradiction in the liquor industry remains on the demand side, with the adjustment process involving channel bottoms, performance bottoms, and inventory bottoms in that order [3][7] - Currently, the industry is at the channel profit bottom and is accelerating towards the performance bottom, which is expected to be reached by mid-2026 [7][18] - The liquor sector is transitioning from a growth stock to a "quasi-debt asset" as the growth logic shifts from volume-price to market share [2][43] Structural Changes - The high-end consumption attribute of liquor is weakening while its fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) attribute is strengthening, leading to a shift from volume-price logic to market share logic [44][60] - The industry is experiencing a structural change where the pricing mechanism is being redefined, with a focus on stable returns and dividends [2][72] Demand Side Dynamics - The demand pressure on liquor is easing as the real estate and debt cycles pass their steepest decline phases, which is expected to positively influence consumer spending [21][24] - The liquor industry is currently at the channel profit bottom and is moving towards the performance bottom, with expectations that the performance bottom will precede the demand bottom [24][26] Investment Logic Transformation - The investment logic for liquor is being restructured, with a focus on maintaining stable return on equity (ROE) and the ability to provide dividends and share buybacks [75][72] - The transition from a growth stock to a quasi-debt asset requires the industry to undergo a complete inventory cycle and establish stable growth expectations [75][72] Market Share Focus - Future growth in the liquor industry will be driven by market share rather than total volume expansion, emphasizing the importance of brand influence and product line positioning [60][61] - Companies that can enhance their market share must have strong brand recognition, effective customer acquisition strategies, and sufficient production capacity [61][75]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that policy variables are accelerating the clearing of the liquor industry, with the industry moving towards performance bottoms, and stock prices are expected to turn before demand-side indicators [1] Investment Recommendations - The industry is currently experiencing three bottoms: channel bottom, performance bottom, and inventory bottom, in that order. The performance bottom is expected to be reached by mid-2026, with stock prices likely to show a trend reversal before demand-side indicators [2] - The changing economic structure and demographic characteristics in China are leading to a shift in liquor's consumption attributes from high-end to fast-moving consumer goods, indicating that companies with a focus on market share will have a competitive advantage [2] Long-term Perspective - The investment logic for liquor is being reshaped from "cyclical growth" to "quasi-debt assets." As the product attributes change, the focus will shift from volume-price logic to market share logic, with stable return on equity (ROE) becoming increasingly important for pricing [3] - The industry will require a significant amount of time to complete this pricing transition, necessitating a reconstruction of stable growth expectations and consistent dividend and buyback policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector continues to show weak rebound momentum due to persistent demand-side issues, with the Wind white liquor index rising only 0.78% this week, significantly lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices [1] Industry Summary - The white liquor sector is transitioning from a volume-price logic to a share logic, leading to weakened growth potential for most stocks in the sector. White liquor may no longer be considered a cyclical growth stock, with a few stocks becoming "quasi-debt assets" due to competitive advantages, making stable ROE increasingly important for pricing [1][5] - Despite a slight increase in the white liquor index this week, several companies, including Jinshiyuan, Shunxin Agriculture, Jinzongzi Liquor, Shede Liquor, and Huangtai Liquor, saw their stock prices decline. Jinshiyuan reported significant operational difficulties, indicating that the industry is unlikely to see a turnaround in the short term [4][5] Company-Specific Summary - *ST Yanshi and *ST Yedao have experienced significant stock price fluctuations due to restructuring expectations, with market speculation evident [3] - *ST Yanshi's actual controller is under criminal investigation, which may lead to a change in company control if the judicial disposition of his shares occurs. *ST Yedao is backed by state-owned assets in Haikou, with the CSRC supporting state-led restructuring of troubled companies [4] - Jinshiyuan has reported a decline in terminal sales growth in June and July compared to April and May, primarily due to policy factors and seasonal influences. The company anticipates a substantial industry recovery may not occur until the second half of 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates that policy variables are accelerating the clearing process in the liquor industry, with expectations of reaching performance bottoms by mid-2026, and that liquor stock prices may show a trend reversal ahead of demand-side recovery [1][2] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The core contradiction in the liquor industry remains on the demand side, with the adjustment process focusing on three bottoms: channel bottom, performance bottom, and inventory bottom, in that order [2] - The current phase is at the channel profit bottom, moving towards the performance bottom, which is expected to be reached by mid-2026 [2] - Liquor stocks are anticipated to show a trend-level turning point before the demand side does, based on high-frequency signals such as batch prices [2] Group 2: Transformation of Liquor Attributes - The economic structure and demographic characteristics in China are leading to a shift in liquor's commodity attributes, with high-end consumption properties weakening and fast-moving consumer goods attributes strengthening [2] - The growth logic for liquor companies is evolving from a volume-price logic to a share logic, where companies with share logic will demonstrate sustained competitive advantages [2] Group 3: Long-term Investment Logic - The investment logic for liquor is being redefined from "cyclical growth" to "quasi-debt assets," with most liquor stocks expected to see weakened growth potential [3] - A few companies with competitive advantages may internalize their strengths into "quasi-debt assets," making stable ROE increasingly important for liquor pricing [3] - The industry will require a significant amount of time to complete this pricing transition, necessitating a reconstruction of stable growth expectations and consistent dividend and buyback plans [3]

发布时间：2025-07-14 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关键节点将近，A 股或震荡消化涨幅》 - 2025.07.07 策略观点 红利研究（1）：为什么是银行？终点又在何处 ⚫ 投资要点 1.为什么红利股能持续上涨？ 一个反直觉的结论，投资回报率走低的低利率环境有利于红利估 值上移。红利股策略也可以视为一个类债策略，于是我们可以把红利 股股息的一部分视为债券的利息，另一部分是持有股票这一高风险高 波动资产相对持有债券所要求的补偿。即可将红利股的股息率写作： 红利股股息率=无风险利率+本金风险补偿+股债差异补偿 社会整体的投资回报率走低后出现流动性陷阱，红利股的高股息 对于深陷债权类资产荒的资金而言是一个不可多得的回报来源，信用 利差的极致收窄使得 ...