Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment since August 2025 has been characterized by a strong performance in high-growth sectors, particularly in China's technology stocks, alongside a backdrop of rising global bond yields and shifting currency dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In August 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Sci-Tech 50 > ChiNext Index > CSI 300 > Gold > Hang Seng Tech > Dow Jones > LME Copper > European Stocks > NASDAQ > Hang Seng Index > RMB > 0 > China Bond > Nanhua Composite > USD > Crude Oil > Long VIX [1][14]. - Risk assets generally rose in August, with notable performance in Chinese assets, a concurrent appreciation of the RMB, and pressure on government bonds [2][14]. - The domestic equity market saw a broad increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 10.9% in August, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 13.4 basis points to 1.84% [2][27]. Group 2: Macro Trading Themes - The primary macro trading themes since August 2025 include a "high-growth narrative" led by the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext Index, a "rate cut trade" in the U.S. following downward revisions in employment data, and a rise in "risk aversion" reflected in increasing global bond yields [3][57]. - The U.S. employment data revision has opened a window for potential Fed rate cuts, influencing various asset classes to align with this "rate cut trade" [3][57]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators show that the U.S. hard data has remained stable while soft data has slightly improved since August, contrasting with Europe and Japan, where economic outlooks are mixed [4][70]. - China's economic indicators suggest a slowdown, with an estimated actual GDP growth of approximately 4.76% for August, aligning with seasonal economic characteristics [4][70]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand housing performing better than new homes, indicating a trend of "price for volume" [2][42]. - The rental yield in major cities has remained above the 30-year government bond yield, although the leading margin has narrowed compared to previous periods [2][42]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Sentiment - The volatility in the market has seen a decrease in August, with the number of daily ranking changes among 19 asset classes dropping from 124 to 114 [15][62]. - The VIX index has shown signs of recovery, indicating increased market uncertainty and potential adjustments in global risk assets [15][63].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing significant fluctuations due to tariff impacts, with asset prices showing a "rebound" effect after initial adjustments, leading to increased volatility in global markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Performance - As of April 30, 2025, the performance ranking of major assets is as follows: Gold > Euro Stoxx > Nikkei > Chinese Bonds > Nasdaq > 0 > Sci-Tech 50 > CSI 300 > Dow Jones > Hang Seng > US Dollar > Hang Seng Tech > LME Copper > Crude Oil [1][13]. - Gold has shown a year-to-date increase of 26.5% and a monthly rise of 6%, leading in both returns and Sharpe ratio among major assets, although it faced a pullback in late April [1][17]. - The domestic stock market exhibited a "dumbbell" characteristic, with small-cap and stable dividend stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, as evidenced by a 5.0% increase in the micro-cap index [1][41]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and construction PMI in China fell to 49.0%, 50.1%, and 51.9%, respectively, indicating initial impacts from external demand [3]. - The US economy is showing signs of negative impacts from trade tensions, with Q1 GDP growth adjusted for inflation recording a negative annualized rate, and consumer spending growth slowing to 1.8% [3]. - The Eurozone and Japan's manufacturing PMIs showed slight increases, indicating some resilience in their economies [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The domestic bond market displayed a dual pricing characteristic of nominal growth and liquidity, with interest rates declining in early April due to tariff impacts and expectations of policy easing later in the month [2][4]. - The stock market is increasingly focused on "finding certainty," with a shift towards dividend-paying and stable sectors amid rising external demand concerns [2][4]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has deepened, with the rolling 12-month correlation increasing from -0.26 to -0.30, indicating a stronger inverse relationship [28]. Group 4: Sector Performance - In April, only 4 out of 31 sectors recorded positive returns, with beauty care, agriculture, retail, and utilities leading the gains, while sectors like power equipment and telecommunications lagged due to tariff impacts [41][51]. - The real estate market showed a mixed performance, with new home sales declining while second-hand home sales maintained a high growth rate, reflecting resilience in major cities [53]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The dividend asset timing model indicates a continued rise in dividend scores, suggesting a shift towards dividend-paying stocks as a strategy to mitigate uncertainty [6][7]. - The valuation macro deviation framework suggests that if nominal GDP growth can recover, there will be further room for reasonable valuation expansion in the market [8].