Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing significant fluctuations due to tariff impacts, with asset prices showing a "rebound" effect after initial adjustments, leading to increased volatility in global markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Performance - As of April 30, 2025, the performance ranking of major assets is as follows: Gold > Euro Stoxx > Nikkei > Chinese Bonds > Nasdaq > 0 > Sci-Tech 50 > CSI 300 > Dow Jones > Hang Seng > US Dollar > Hang Seng Tech > LME Copper > Crude Oil [1][13]. - Gold has shown a year-to-date increase of 26.5% and a monthly rise of 6%, leading in both returns and Sharpe ratio among major assets, although it faced a pullback in late April [1][17]. - The domestic stock market exhibited a "dumbbell" characteristic, with small-cap and stable dividend stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, as evidenced by a 5.0% increase in the micro-cap index [1][41]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and construction PMI in China fell to 49.0%, 50.1%, and 51.9%, respectively, indicating initial impacts from external demand [3]. - The US economy is showing signs of negative impacts from trade tensions, with Q1 GDP growth adjusted for inflation recording a negative annualized rate, and consumer spending growth slowing to 1.8% [3]. - The Eurozone and Japan's manufacturing PMIs showed slight increases, indicating some resilience in their economies [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The domestic bond market displayed a dual pricing characteristic of nominal growth and liquidity, with interest rates declining in early April due to tariff impacts and expectations of policy easing later in the month [2][4]. - The stock market is increasingly focused on "finding certainty," with a shift towards dividend-paying and stable sectors amid rising external demand concerns [2][4]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has deepened, with the rolling 12-month correlation increasing from -0.26 to -0.30, indicating a stronger inverse relationship [28]. Group 4: Sector Performance - In April, only 4 out of 31 sectors recorded positive returns, with beauty care, agriculture, retail, and utilities leading the gains, while sectors like power equipment and telecommunications lagged due to tariff impacts [41][51]. - The real estate market showed a mixed performance, with new home sales declining while second-hand home sales maintained a high growth rate, reflecting resilience in major cities [53]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The dividend asset timing model indicates a continued rise in dividend scores, suggesting a shift towards dividend-paying stocks as a strategy to mitigate uncertainty [6][7]. - The valuation macro deviation framework suggests that if nominal GDP growth can recover, there will be further room for reasonable valuation expansion in the market [8].