种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 85482 k 利 tt 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -543 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 89096 F 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6327 y T 习近平将同美国总统特朗普举行会晤。外交部发言人10月29日宣布:经中美双方商定，国家主席习近平将于当地时间10月30日在韩国釜 国总统特朗普举行会晤,就中美关系和双方共同关心的问题交换意见。 t H 需求方面，终端（储能+新能源车）旺季持续，社会库存"上游-下游-终端"移动的链条流畅。供给方面,以高位波动为主,暂未现大量增产 需错配下,碳酸锂价格下方支撑明显。 上方主要考虑套保压力,和江西矿端复产预期。整体上,综合供需错配、套保压力和市场 预计短期内碳酸锂价格或宽幅震荡。 员 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做低何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) peak season continuing and the supply fluctuating at a high level without a significant increase, the price of lithium carbonate has obvious support at the bottom. Considering the hedging pressure and the resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate widely in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 84,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3,000 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan/ton [1] Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 86,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.58%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 87,660 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.34%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 87,840 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.39%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2602 is 87,620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.51%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2603 is 87,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.28% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li2O 5% - 6%) is 1,001 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 17 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton; the average price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 8,085 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 205 yuan/ton; the average price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 9,510 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 215 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 36,960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 355 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 160,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 141,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 142,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan/ton; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 3,490 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 210 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 40 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 180 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 120,472 tons, with a weekly decrease of 3,481 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 28,270 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,445 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 48,772 tons, with a weekly decrease of 3,236 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 43,430 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,200 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 27,508 tons, with a daily decrease of 770 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 84,065 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 907 yuan/ton; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 87,365 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6,361 yuan/ton [3]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with the peak season of the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) continuing and the supply fluctuating at a high level without a significant increase, the price of lithium carbonate has obvious support at the bottom. Considering the hedging pressure and the resumption of production in Jiangxi's mining sector, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate widely in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 83,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 81,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2511, 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 are 84,920 yuan/ton (-0.35%), 86,500 yuan/ton (-0.21%), 86,580 yuan/ton (-0.21%), 86,280 yuan/ton (-0.32%), and 86,140 yuan/ton (-0.44%) respectively [1]. Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 984 dollars, and the prices of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) are 1,420 yuan, 2,245 yuan, 7,880 yuan, and 9,295 yuan respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan, 25 yuan, 20 yuan, and 20 yuan [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), and ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) are 36,605 yuan, 160,250 yuan, 141,150 yuan, and 141,650 yuan respectively, with daily increases of 245 yuan, 1,000 yuan, 400 yuan, and 1,500 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 3,280 yuan/ton, with a change of 960 yuan; the price spreads between the near - month and the first - continuous, and the near - month and the second - continuous contracts are - 80 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 120 yuan and 140 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 123,953 tons, with a decrease of 3,405 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other sectors (weekly, tons) are 30,715 tons (-1,336 tons), 52,008 tons (-1,280 tons), and 41,230 tons (-790 tons) respectively. The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) are 28,287 tons, with an increase of 188 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 82,955 yuan, and the profit is - 815 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 86,558 yuan, and the profit is - 6,476 yuan [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - International ICE raw sugar rose to 14.26 cents/pound due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and high domestic prices in India suppressing exports, but there is a long - term pressure of a 2.8 million - ton global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the domestic market, new sugar quotes are firm and old sugar inventory clearance support the futures prices, but the expected increase in production, off - season consumption, and sufficient supply limit the upside. The market is watching the breakthrough of the 5,500 yuan/ton resistance level [3]. Price and Spread - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5,480 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly decrease of 0.02%; SR03 at 5,442 yuan/ton (0.18% daily, - 0.24% weekly); SR05 at 5,411 yuan/ton (0.11% daily, - 0.37% weekly); SR07 at 5,410 yuan/ton (0.13% daily, - 0.4% weekly); SR09 at 5,404 yuan/ton (0.02% daily, - 0.57% weekly); SR11 at 5,470 yuan/ton (1.11% daily, 1.03% weekly); SB at 14.26 cents/pound (0.92% daily, 0.35% weekly); W at 409.3 (0.84% daily, 0.74% weekly) [4]. - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 70 (up 10 daily, 4 weekly); SR05 - 09 was 2 (up 3 daily, 3 weekly); SR09 - 01 was - 72 (down 13 daily, 7 weekly); SR01 - 03 was 43 (up 6 daily, 4 weekly); SR03 - 05 was 27 (up 4 daily, 0 weekly); SR05 - 07 was 2 (0 daily, down 2 weekly); SR07 - 09 was 0 (up 3 daily, 5 weekly); SR09 - 11 was - 7 (down 5 daily, 71 weekly); SR11 - 01 was - 65 (down 8 daily, 64 weekly) [4]. Basis - Nanning - SR01 basis was 285 (down 18 daily, up 34 weekly); Nanning - SR03 was 328 (down 12 daily, up 38 weekly); Nanning - SR05 was 355 (down 8 daily, up 38 weekly); Nanning - SR07 was 357 (down 8 daily, up 36 weekly); Nanning - SR09 was 357 (down 5 daily, up 41 weekly); Nanning - SR11 was 350 (down 10 daily, down 30 weekly). Kunming - SR01 basis was 175 (down 18 daily, down 21 weekly); Kunming - SR03 was 218 (down 12 daily, down 17 weekly); Kunming - SR05 was 245 (down 8 daily, down 17 weekly); Kunming - SR07 was 247 (down 8 daily, down 19 weekly); Kunming - SR09 was 247 (down 5 daily, down 14 weekly); Kunming - SR11 was 240 (down 10 daily, down 85 weekly) [11]. Import Price and Profit - Brazilian import price: Quota - within was 3,947 yuan/ton (down 20 daily, 59 weekly), over - quota was 4,996 yuan/ton (down 26 daily, 77 weekly). Thai import price: Quota - within was 4,002 yuan/ton (down 21 daily, 69 weekly), over - quota was 5,068 yuan/ton (down 27 daily, 90 weekly) [14]. Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short - term, market sentiment may improve due to China - US trade consultations. The new cotton production in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the purchase price is relatively firm. However, the overall domestic new cotton production is still high, and downstream demand is mediocre. Cotton prices lack upward momentum and may fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton and the subsequent new - season production determination [16]. Price and Spread - Cotton futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13,560 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton 05 at 13,560 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton 09 at 13,735 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19,855 yuan/ton (down 10, - 0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 was 0 (down 19,860, - 100%); Cotton yarn 09 was 0 (0, - 100%) [17]. - Cotton price spreads: Cotton basis was 1,282 (up 18); Cotton 01 - 05 was 0 (0); Cotton 05 - 09 was - 175 (0); Cotton 09 - 01 was 175 (0); Cotton - yarn spread was 6,280 (up 15); Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,872 (up 100); Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 616 (0) [17]. Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is coming to an end, mainly concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The cold - storage warehousing work is in the later stage. In Shandong's Qixia and Zhaoyuan, not all apples have been harvested, there are many buyers, and striped apples are on the market. In terms of warehousing progress, cold - storages in Gansu have started to sell, Shaanxi's warehousing is almost finished, and in Qixia's western towns in Shandong, a large amount of farmers' apples are still being warehoused [20]. Price and Spread - Apple futures prices: AP01 closed at 9,229 yuan/ton (0.76% daily, 4.15% weekly); AP03 at 9,132 yuan/ton (0.43% daily, 2.0% weekly); AP04 at 9,211 yuan/ton (0.29% daily, 1.69% weekly); AP05 at 9,289 yuan/ton (0.31% daily, 1.94% weekly); AP10 at 8,389 yuan/ton (0.35% daily, 2.08% weekly); AP11 at 8,875 yuan/ton (0.85% daily, 1.22% weekly); AP12 at 9,179 yuan/ton (0.75% daily, 4.09% weekly) [21]. - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 101 (- 7.34% daily, - 72.70% weekly); AP05 - 10 was 900 (4.77% daily, - 18.18% weekly); AP10 - 01 was - 799 (6.53% daily, 9.45% weekly); Main - contract basis was - 352 (28.47% daily, 214.29% weekly) [22]. Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - New - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvest stage. The current new - season production is the core point of market game. There is indeed a production reduction in southern Xinjiang, but the reduction amplitude is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of production are prone to偏差. In the short - term, red date prices fluctuate greatly under capital game. With the start of the purchase season and production reduction, the downside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent commodity rate and purchase situation of new dates [26]. Price Spread - Red date futures spreads: Red date 01 - 05 spread, 05 - 09 spread, and 09 - 01 spread data are presented graphically, showing their historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [27][29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, while having strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and the index fluctuates while having strong support below [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress downstream demand, and market risk preference declines, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial driving force is limited in the near term, and the price maintains high - level fluctuations [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity continues to be released, production and inventory increase, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: LME inventory continues to decline, and the risk of cornering the market drives the price up. The price is expected to remain high, but chasing high prices requires caution due to domestic over - supply [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price may rebound with fluctuations, but beware of high inventory suppression. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is over - supply [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the production schedule in October is stable. The futures price fluctuates at the bottom, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range in the short term, with support below. Pay attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff ruling [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity resumes, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season weakens. Polysilicon production in November decreases [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates. The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is coming, energy storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, pay attention to the upward pressure [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Pay attention to the upward pressure on the price after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass**: Supply and demand are supportive, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It follows glass, but the supply and demand are average, and the upward resistance of the price is large [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal's trend is tangled near the previous high, and coke's high - point price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases. The steel - coke game is intense, and the price may return to the shock range [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short term. A rebound may occur if export data improves in November [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The purchase of US soybeans by China may bring a loose expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders brings a relaxation expectation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed presses the price [1]. - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton demand is uncertain. The downward space of the futures price is limited, but the basis and the futures price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: The price has seasonal upward momentum in the short term, but the rebound space is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The supply still faces selling pressure, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a medium - to - long - term rebound expected [1]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean futures are expected to follow the US market and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the global supply pattern restricts the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. The downward pressure on the futures price is large, and a 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. - **Hogs**: The futures price follows the spot price and stabilizes and then weakens. There is still pressure on the supply in November [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The profit is relatively high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: It is bearish. The cost support weakens, and the supply is loose [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price follows the decline of crude oil, but the cost support from coal strengthens slightly [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price follows the cost closely, and the basis strengthens [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene plants decreases [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and the upward space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **PE**: The inventory pressure is large under high supply, the maintenance intensity weakens, and the downstream demand increases slowly [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large due to reduced maintenance and new production capacity, but the cost support strengthens [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a risk of cornering the market due to planned alumina production in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic spot market stabilizes [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: Macro - positive sentiment is digested, the expected price increase in the peak season is pre - priced, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure at the upper level is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (there are rumors of mine resumption), and further stimulation from funds, events, and news is needed to continue the price increase. Otherwise, the price will be low [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 80,500 yuan with a decrease of 400 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,300 yuan with a decrease of 400 yuan [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts: Li2511 closed at 77,800 yuan with a decline of 1.12%; Li2512 closed at 79,060 yuan with a decline of 0.38%; Li2601 closed at 79,140 yuan with a decline of 0.45%; Li2602 closed at 79,000 yuan with a decline of 0.13%; Li2603 closed at 78,860 yuan with a decline of 0.43% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 920 yuan with a decrease of 11 yuan (Li2O: 5.5% - 6%); lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,290 yuan with a decrease of 25 yuan; lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 2,085 yuan with a decrease of 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 6,990 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8,340 yuan with a decrease of 80 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,925 yuan with a decrease of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,950 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,450 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,150 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 yuan with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,360 yuan with a decrease of 980 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 80 yuan with an increase of 20 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 60 yuan with an increase of 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons with a decrease of 3,008 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons with a decrease of 1,630 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons with a decrease of 1,987 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons with an increase of 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 26,830 tons with an increase of 340 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 78,943 yuan, and the profit is 425 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 82,750 yuan, and the profit is - 5,412 yuan [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure from above is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (rumors of mine resumption have emerged), and further capital, events, and news are needed to push up the price. Otherwise, the price will remain low [3] 3. Summary by Category Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 81,000 yuan with a rise of 450 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,800 yuan with a rise of 450 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 80,620 yuan with a decline of 0.67%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 82,100 yuan with no change; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 82,280 yuan with a decline of 0.1%; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 81,980 yuan with a rise of 0.27%; lithium carbonate 2603 has a closing price of 81,760 yuan with a rise of 0.02% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) has an average price of 941 yuan with a decline of 3 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1350 yuan with a decline of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 2150 yuan with a decline of 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 7360 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8770 yuan with a decline of 55 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 36,050 yuan with a rise of 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,950 yuan with a rise of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,450 yuan with a rise of 150 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,150 yuan with a rise of 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200 yuan with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1280 yuan with a decline of 1050 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan with a rise of 1240 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 120 yuan with a rise of 1600 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons with a decline of 3008 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons with a decline of 1630 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons with a decline of 1987 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons with a rise of 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,290 tons with a decline of 331 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 80,421 yuan, and the profit is - 557 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 84,985 yuan, and the profit is - 7158 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - The cotton market is facing a complex situation. Internationally, the extension of India's tariff exemption time supports US cotton, and the USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply and demand has made the pattern tighter. However, the adjustment of some countries' production may not be in place, and the slow export sales of US cotton limit its upside. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of cotton, low commercial inventory, and the late and limited issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support domestic cotton prices in the short term. But the expected increase in production in the new year and potential hedging pressure during the new flower listing period limit the upside [2]. - The sugar market has a situation where the continuous high profit of out - of - quota imports and the large increase in imports in July have led to sufficient short - term supply, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, the low domestic sugar inventory and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices provide some support [5]. - The pulp market has supply pressure due to planned domestic pulp capacity expansion and high port inventories. On the demand side, weak consumption in Europe and the US, low domestic demand during the off - season, and over - capacity in the paper industry lead to limited demand improvement, and the pulp price is expected to oscillate at a low level [7][8]. Summary by Directory Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,045 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,324 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,412 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton. As of September 1, 2025, the weekly listing volume of Indian cotton was 0.7 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 87%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.1749 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 5% [1]. Market Analysis - International: India's extension of the tariff exemption time supports US cotton. The USDA's August report tightened the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but the production adjustment of some countries may be incomplete. The slow export sales of US cotton limit its upside, and the ICE US cotton may be in the 65 - 70 cents range in the short term. - Domestic: The rapid de - stocking of domestic cotton, low commercial inventory, and the late and limited issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas have not solved the short - term cotton shortage in Xinjiang. The supply is tight at the end of this season, and the approaching peak season improves demand. However, the expected increase in production in the new year and potential hedging pressure during the new flower listing period limit the upside [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. In the short term, the tight supply, approaching peak season, and potential for抢购 may lead to a bullish oscillation of Zhengzhou cotton before the large - scale listing of new flowers. In the medium term, the expected high yield in the new year and potential weak peak season may lead to a decline in cotton prices [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,599 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. India allows sugar mills to use various raw materials to produce ethanol to ensure domestic sugar supply [3]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's Conab and other institutions have lowered the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season in the central - southern region. Pakistan's sugar purchase supports sugar prices, but Brazil's peak crushing season and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere limit the upside. - Domestic: The continuous high profit of out - of - quota imports and the large increase in imports in July have led to sufficient short - term supply, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5]. Strategy - Neutral. The low domestic sugar inventory and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the further decline of Zhengzhou sugar prices [5]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,042 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market was generally stable, with only minor fluctuations [5][6]. Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp capacity put into production in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, the slow de - stocking of ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. - Demand: Weak pulp consumption in Europe and the US, increasing inventory pressure on global pulp mills, and low domestic demand during the off - season, over - capacity in the paper industry, and limited improvement in terminal demand are expected in the second half of the year [7]. Strategy - Neutral. The lack of improvement in the pulp market fundamentals and the absence of positive drivers suggest that the pulp price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].