Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 25.9 billion and Non-GAAP net profit of 1.01 billion, driven by good gross margin, cost control, and sales volume [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 25.9 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 1.01 billion, exceeding market expectations [1] - The company delivered a total of 92,864 vehicles in Q1, despite being in a model transition period, contributing to strong revenue [1] - The overall gross margin was 20.5%, with automotive gross margin at 19.8%, slightly above market expectations [1] Group 2: Future Development Trends - The company expects Q2 delivery guidance to be stable, projecting sales of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles, aligning with market expectations [1] - A new pure electric vehicle cycle is anticipated in 2025, with plans to launch two new models, i8 and i6, in Q3 2025 [1] - The company aims to introduce sedan and MPV products after achieving 300 billion in revenue, marking the next growth phase [1] Group 3: Market Expansion Strategy - The company has initiated the "Hundred Cities Star Plan" to accelerate its expansion into lower-tier markets, targeting over 100,000 additional units by 2026 [2] - Internationally, the company plans to focus on Asia and Europe, aiming for overseas sales to account for 30% of total sales [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains an outperform rating and keeps the profit forecast for 2025/26 unchanged, with target prices of 155 HKD and 40 USD for Hong Kong and US stocks, respectively [2] - The current P/E ratios for Hong Kong and US stocks are 22x and 18x for 2025 estimates, indicating significant upside potential [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [15]. Core Views - The launch of the L series smart upgraded models (L6, L7, L8, L9) is expected to enhance the company's market position, with stable pricing and attractive sales incentives during the initial sales period [4][6]. - The company is focusing on significant upgrades in smart driving hardware and comfort features across its new models, which include advanced laser radar and enhanced battery capacities [6][10]. - The competitive landscape for the L6 model remains favorable, while the L7, L8, and L9 models are set to face increased competition in 2025, prompting proactive product upgrades [6][9]. - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, targeting regions such as Latin America, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, which is anticipated to become a new growth engine [9]. Financial Summary - Projected revenue growth shows a significant increase from 123.85 billion CNY in 2023 to 271.34 billion CNY by 2027, with a year-over-year growth rate peaking at 173.5% in 2023 and stabilizing around 18.6% by 2027 [5]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 11.70 billion CNY in 2023 to 23.21 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 681.7% in 2023, followed by fluctuations in subsequent years [5]. - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable, with slight improvements from 22.2% in 2023 to 21.5% in 2027, while net margin is expected to increase from 9.5% to 8.6% over the same period [5][13]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in sales for the upgraded models following their launch, despite initial declines in sales volume due to competitive pressures [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The launch of the L series smart upgraded models (L6, L7, L8, L9) is expected to enhance the company's market position, with stable pricing and attractive sales incentives [4][6]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its intelligent driving systems and comfort features to remain competitive in the market, particularly against new entrants in 2025 [6][9]. - The company is also accelerating its overseas market expansion, targeting regions such as Latin America, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, which could become new growth engines [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 123.85 billion CNY in 2023 to 271.34 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30.7% in 2026 [5]. - Net profit is expected to fluctuate, peaking at 23.21 billion CNY in 2027 after a dip in 2024 [5]. - The gross margin is anticipated to stabilize around 21.5% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve to 8.6% [5][13]. Product Strategy - The L series models will feature significant upgrades in intelligent driving hardware, including the introduction of advanced laser radar and enhanced chip capabilities [6][7]. - The company aims to maintain a competitive edge by offering higher initial sales incentives compared to competitors, such as three years of zero interest financing and discounts on deposits [6][9]. - The MEGA model will continue to focus on its flagship positioning, with the introduction of the MEGA Home version targeting family users [9]. Market Positioning - The L6 model is expected to face less direct competition in its price range, while the L7, L8, and L9 models will see increased competition in 2025 [6][9]. - The company is strategically enhancing its product offerings to address the anticipated competitive pressures from new models entering the market [6][9].