Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a volatile and downward trend in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant with high production from alkali plants and the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II before the year. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. The basis shows futures premium over spot, the price is below the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line pointing downwards, and the main position is net short with short positions decreasing. Overall, the short - term outlook is bearish [2]. Influencing Factors - **Likely Factors**: Equipment problems lead to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year, with industry production at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1120 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% from the previous value. The main basis is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.22% from the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1120 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method is - 220 yuan/ton, both at historical lows [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.74%. The weekly production of soda ash is 70.39 tons, including 38.15 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [17][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual commissioning of 100 tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.16% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [27]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 153.86 tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35].

Core Insights - The domestic soda ash market is stable overall, with slight adjustments in some regions [2] - Supply is expected to fluctuate slightly due to maintenance plans at several production facilities [2] - Downstream demand remains cautious, with new orders performing generally below expectations [2] Price Analysis - In North China, the mainstream price for light soda ash is maintained at 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1190-1320 CNY/ton [2] - In East China, light soda ash prices range from 1200-1620 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash is at 1260-1320 CNY/ton [2] - The price index for light soda ash on November 2 was 11195.71, a decrease of 2.86, or -0.24%, while the heavy soda ash index remained stable at 1211.43 [3] Futures Market - On December 2, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1177 CNY/ton and closed at 1183 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.28% [5] - The market is experiencing low-level consolidation, with insufficient driving forces for price movement [5] - Despite inventory reduction providing slight support, general downstream demand is weak, leading to a heavy market sentiment [5] Market Outlook - There are expectations of contraction in both supply and downstream demand for soda ash, with manufacturers maintaining stable pricing strategies [6] - The market is likely to continue its stable trend in the short term, with ongoing attention needed on production dynamics and downstream purchasing rhythms [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current weak demand situation for soda ash has not improved. The "anti - involution" production cut plan of photovoltaic glass may lead to a decrease in the demand for heavy soda ash in November. Short - term improvement in shipments is mainly due to downstream passive replenishment at low prices rather than demand recovery [7]. - Future price trends depend on multiple factors. A drop in industry operating rate below 80% or a delay in the commissioning of Yuanxing Energy may trigger a periodic rebound. The effectiveness of domestic real - estate policies in promoting inventory reduction of float glass will improve the demand outlook for heavy soda ash. The implementation of macro - level stimulus policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may also change market sentiment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On October 17, 2025, the soda ash futures fluctuated and closed lower. For the soda ash 2601 (SA601) contract, the opening price was 1240 yuan/ton, the highest was 1240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1196 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1209 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1.045 million lots, a decrease of 104,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.406 million lots, an increase of 18,000 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The prices of different soda ash futures contracts all declined on October 17, 2025. For example, the soda ash 2609 contract decreased by 22 yuan/ton or 1.59%, the soda ash 2601 M contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton or 1.47%, and the soda ash 2605 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton or 1.75%. The domestic soda ash spot market prices remained unchanged on this day [4][5]. 3. Influencing Factors - **Industry Chain - related**: The overall demand for glass in the peak season is weak. Despite the improvement in profits, the industry's operating rate has increased, and enterprise inventories have continuously increased, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment and consecutive drops in the glass futures market [6]. - **Fundamentals - related**: Coal prices are stable at 850 yuan/ton, but the price of raw salt has decreased to 280 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the combined - soda process has dropped to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process is - 82 yuan/ton. The industry's loss - making ratio has expanded to 65% [6]. 4. Market Outlook - The weak demand for soda ash persists. The production cut plan of photovoltaic glass may reduce the demand for heavy soda ash in November. Short - term shipment improvement is due to downstream passive replenishment. Attention should be paid to factors such as industry operating rate, the commissioning progress of Yuanxing Energy, real - estate policies, and macro - level stimulus policies [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable with slight fluctuations in prices, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to inventory pressure for soda ash companies [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 12, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, and for heavy soda ash, it is 1290-1370 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash is priced at 1330-1410 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1390-1520 CNY/ton [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The overall operation of soda ash plants is stable, with a relatively high industry operating rate and sufficient market supply. However, the downstream demand sentiment is poor, leading to a cautious purchasing atmosphere [2][6]. Futures Market - On August 12, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1345 CNY/ton and closed at 1409 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.31%. The market was influenced by potential environmental disruptions in Qinghai and rising costs, despite the lack of significant improvement in the fundamentals [5][6]. Future Outlook - The number of companies undergoing maintenance is low, resulting in a loose supply in the soda ash market. With limited order growth and a lack of clear driving factors, short-term soda ash prices are expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation trend [6].