交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1120元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1125元/吨，基差为-5元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存153.86万吨，较前一周减少3.07%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来， ...

Core Insights - The domestic soda ash market is stable overall, with slight adjustments in some regions [2] - Supply is expected to fluctuate slightly due to maintenance plans at several production facilities [2] - Downstream demand remains cautious, with new orders performing generally below expectations [2] Price Analysis - In North China, the mainstream price for light soda ash is maintained at 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1190-1320 CNY/ton [2] - In East China, light soda ash prices range from 1200-1620 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash is at 1260-1320 CNY/ton [2] - The price index for light soda ash on November 2 was 11195.71, a decrease of 2.86, or -0.24%, while the heavy soda ash index remained stable at 1211.43 [3] Futures Market - On December 2, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1177 CNY/ton and closed at 1183 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.28% [5] - The market is experiencing low-level consolidation, with insufficient driving forces for price movement [5] - Despite inventory reduction providing slight support, general downstream demand is weak, leading to a heavy market sentiment [5] Market Outlook - There are expectations of contraction in both supply and downstream demand for soda ash, with manufacturers maintaining stable pricing strategies [6] - The market is likely to continue its stable trend in the short term, with ongoing attention needed on production dynamics and downstream purchasing rhythms [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current weak demand situation for soda ash has not improved. The "anti - involution" production cut plan of photovoltaic glass may lead to a decrease in the demand for heavy soda ash in November. Short - term improvement in shipments is mainly due to downstream passive replenishment at low prices rather than demand recovery [7]. - Future price trends depend on multiple factors. A drop in industry operating rate below 80% or a delay in the commissioning of Yuanxing Energy may trigger a periodic rebound. The effectiveness of domestic real - estate policies in promoting inventory reduction of float glass will improve the demand outlook for heavy soda ash. The implementation of macro - level stimulus policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may also change market sentiment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On October 17, 2025, the soda ash futures fluctuated and closed lower. For the soda ash 2601 (SA601) contract, the opening price was 1240 yuan/ton, the highest was 1240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1196 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1209 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1.045 million lots, a decrease of 104,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.406 million lots, an increase of 18,000 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The prices of different soda ash futures contracts all declined on October 17, 2025. For example, the soda ash 2609 contract decreased by 22 yuan/ton or 1.59%, the soda ash 2601 M contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton or 1.47%, and the soda ash 2605 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton or 1.75%. The domestic soda ash spot market prices remained unchanged on this day [4][5]. 3. Influencing Factors - **Industry Chain - related**: The overall demand for glass in the peak season is weak. Despite the improvement in profits, the industry's operating rate has increased, and enterprise inventories have continuously increased, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment and consecutive drops in the glass futures market [6]. - **Fundamentals - related**: Coal prices are stable at 850 yuan/ton, but the price of raw salt has decreased to 280 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the combined - soda process has dropped to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process is - 82 yuan/ton. The industry's loss - making ratio has expanded to 65% [6]. 4. Market Outlook - The weak demand for soda ash persists. The production cut plan of photovoltaic glass may reduce the demand for heavy soda ash in November. Short - term shipment improvement is due to downstream passive replenishment. Attention should be paid to factors such as industry operating rate, the commissioning progress of Yuanxing Energy, real - estate policies, and macro - level stimulus policies [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable with slight fluctuations in prices, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to inventory pressure for soda ash companies [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 12, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, and for heavy soda ash, it is 1290-1370 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash is priced at 1330-1410 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1390-1520 CNY/ton [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The overall operation of soda ash plants is stable, with a relatively high industry operating rate and sufficient market supply. However, the downstream demand sentiment is poor, leading to a cautious purchasing atmosphere [2][6]. Futures Market - On August 12, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1345 CNY/ton and closed at 1409 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.31%. The market was influenced by potential environmental disruptions in Qinghai and rising costs, despite the lack of significant improvement in the fundamentals [5][6]. Future Outlook - The number of companies undergoing maintenance is low, resulting in a loose supply in the soda ash market. With limited order growth and a lack of clear driving factors, short-term soda ash prices are expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation trend [6].