纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-08-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1409 336 | 64 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 59 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1073 1125754 | 5 57378 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 874297 | -142973 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -365346 | -3429 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -249970 | 18375 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 7715 | 0 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3543 | 25 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -94 | -11 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -151 | -18 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -110 | -35 | | | 玻璃基差 | 15 | -17 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1235 | 0 华中重碱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a weak performance, with prices showing little change across various regions, and a cautious sentiment prevailing among downstream buyers [2][3]. Price Summary - As of August 1, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1270-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1270-1370 CNY/ton. In South China, light soda ash is priced at 1390-1470 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1360-1430 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on August 1 is 1275.71, down 4.29 from the previous working day, a decrease of 0.33%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1294.29, down 8.57, a decrease of 0.66% [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side remains stable, with Inner Mongolia Salt Industry planning maintenance on August 5, while Shilian Chemical and Huainan Debang plan to resume production in early August [2]. - Demand continues to be weak, with downstream companies showing reduced purchasing willingness and adopting conservative procurement strategies [2]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 1, the main soda ash futures contract SA2509 opened at 1248 CNY/ton and closed at 1256 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.02%. The total open interest is 921,926 contracts, down by 52,098 contracts [5]. - The futures market is under pressure due to overall weak sentiment in the chemical sector, despite some support from inventory reduction [5]. Market Outlook - In the coming week, as previously maintained facilities gradually resume operations, supply is expected to increase. However, the cautious purchasing attitude from downstream buyers may limit acceptance of high-priced products [6]. - The market sentiment is shifting from a strong expectation at the beginning of the week to a more cautious outlook, with prices likely to remain volatile and subject to flexible adjustments [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the doc 2. Core Views 2.1纯碱市场 - 检修带动短期产量偏低但后续将提升，计划内检修较少；国外价格到国内暂无优势，进口窗口未开，国内价格低位出口较好；终端备货充足，需求有回落预期，库存压力难解；市场正反馈情绪回落后维持偏空思路，短期防范风险观望为主 [7][9] 2.2玻璃市场 - 部分前期点火产线等待出品，供应端存政策端利多导向但暂未落地；近周末市场氛围受盘面走强提振，观察梅雨季后市场情绪变化；需求情绪走强库存下行；低位多单持有思路，情绪转弱则灵活离场 [153][155] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1纯碱市场 3.1.1市场综述 - 当期总产量70.89万吨，环比持平，预计后续提升；重质产量40.01万吨，环比增0.43万吨；轻质产量30.88万吨，环比降0.43万吨；进口0.03万吨，环比持平；出口4.1万吨，环比持平；浮法玻璃日熔量158425t/d，环比增650t/d；光伏玻璃日熔量91400t/d，环比降600t/d；重碱消费量33.70万吨，环比增0.02万吨；轻碱表需29.57万吨，环比增0.88万吨；纯碱表需65.50万吨，环比降1.13万吨；碱厂库存186.34万吨，环比增5.39万吨；社会库存23.80万吨，环比增1.00万吨；样本终端原料天数23.36天，环比增1.54天；氨碱法成本1281元，环比持平；氨碱法利润 -81元，环比增40元；联碱法成本1142元，环比降8元；联碱法利润8元，环比增48元；华中重碱 - 轻碱价差0元，环比持平；沙河市场价基差 -75元，环比降48元 [7] 3.1.2月度供需 - 展示了2020 - 2025年各月纯碱当月产量、进口量、表观需求量、出口量数据 [15][17][18][20] 3.1.3基差价差 - 展示了纯碱和玻璃期现货价格对照、纯碱合约基差、跨期价差、玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差数据 [24][25][26][27][29][31][32][34][35][36][38][39][40][41] 3.1.4市场价格 - 沙河区域重质纯碱当期价1207元，环比上周涨23元，环比去年降693元；轻重碱区域价格有不同变化；展示了各区域重质、轻质纯碱价格及价差数据 [44][48][68] 3.1.5供应 - 目前多家企业检修/降负荷，部分企业有计划检修；当期国内纯碱开工率81.32%，环比上周持平，环比去年降6.01%；周产量70.89万吨，环比上周持平，环比去年降1.91%；重质纯碱产量40.01万吨，环比上周增0.43万吨，环比去年降2.47万吨；轻质纯碱产量30.88万吨，环比上周降0.43万吨，环比去年增0.56万吨；重质化率56.44%，环比上周增0.61%，环比去年降1.91%；产销比92.40%，环比上周降1.59%，环比去年降18.59% [74][75] 3.1.6需求 - 展示了浮法、光伏玻璃在产日熔量、重质纯碱日耗量、周度需求、周度表观消费量、产销率及光伏玻璃价格数据 [122][124][126][128][130][131][134][135] 3.1.7库存 - 当期纯碱企业库存186.34万吨，环比增5.39万吨，环比去年增87.98万吨；轻质纯碱企业库存79.13万吨，环比降1.35万吨，环比去年增20.80万吨；重质纯碱企业库存107.21万吨，环比增6.74万吨，环比去年增67.18万吨；库存天数15.45天，环比增0.45天，环比去年增7.19天 [139] 3.1.8仓单数量/有效预报 - Not provided in the doc 3.1.9地产相关数据 - Not provided in the doc 3.2玻璃市场 3.2.1市场综述 - 当期浮法玻璃日熔量158425t/d，环比增650t/d；周产量110.90万吨，环比增0.45万吨；表观消费量120.81万吨，环比增9.71万吨；厂库库存335.51万吨，环比降9.92万吨；天然气线成本1408元，环比增8元；天然气线利润 -178元，环比降8元；煤制气线成本931元，环比增12元；煤制气线利润214元，环比降6元；石油焦线成本1051元，环比增8元；石油焦线利润19元，环比降8元；华东 - 华中价差160元，环比持平；沙河5mm大板基差 -79元，环比降47元 [153] 3.2.2月度供需 - 展示了2020 - 2025年平板玻璃当月产量、浮法玻璃当月进口量、当月产量同比、当月出口量数据 [160][162][163][165] 3.2.3基差价差 - 展示了纯碱和玻璃期现货价格对照、玻璃合约基差、跨期价差、玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差数据 [169][170][171][172][174][175][176][178][180][181][183][184][185][186] 3.2.4市场价格 - 展示了浮法玻璃5mm区域价格，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区不同规格价格及环比情况；还展示了各区域浮法玻璃5mm市场价及沙河、湖北部分企业5mm大板含税价数据 [190][192][193][195][196][198][200][202][204][206][208][210][211][213][215][216][217][219][221][223] 3.2.5供应 - 当期浮法玻璃煤制气企业利润108.78元，环比增22.80元；石油焦企业利润 -50.47元，环比增34.29元；天然气企业利润 -183.11元，环比增5.57元 [227] 3.2.6需求 - Not provided separately in the doc 3.2.7库存 - 厂库库存335.51万吨，环比降9.92万吨，预计后续继续下降 [153]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. Short - term spot trading is stable with a slight rebound due to low valuation and peak - season expectations, but the Hubei warehouse receipt pricing and high inventory limit upward potential. The long - term bullish factors are policy support for real estate, low spot prices, long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. The bearish factors are the lack of substantial improvement in the real estate market and high inventory pressure [6][7]. -纯碱: The rebound is hard to sustain, and the medium - term is a sideways market. The glass market pressure restricts the price increase of soda ash. Although short - term low valuation and potential cost - side stabilization may drive a rebound, the future will face greater delivery pressure. The core issues are high production and high inventory, and potential supporting factors need the improvement of the glass market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass: Supply - side Situation Introduction - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,530 tons/day [11]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,110 tons/day [12]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13,700 tons/day [13]. - Potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 9,530 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [14]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 5,700 tons/day [16]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited, with the current in - production capacity at about 157,000 tons/day, a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021, and a recent low of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [18][19]. Glass: Price and Profit - This week's trading was basically stable, with most prices changing little. The price in Shahe is about 1,120 - 1,180 yuan/ton, in Hubei about 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and in East China about 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [25][29]. - The futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was stable. The near - month warehouse receipt factor limited the monthly spread's rebound space [31][34]. - The profit of coal - fired devices is 82 yuan/ton, natural - gas - fired devices is - 199 yuan/ton, and petroleum - coke - fired devices is - 101 yuan/ton, with actual profits varying by factory and region [39]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream Start - up - Recent trading was relatively stable, and inventory in most regions decreased slightly. The regional spread in East China shrank as prices declined [42][46]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices declined, recent order follow - up decreased, glass manufacturers' shipments were average, and inventory continued to increase. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11.5 yuan/square meter, down 6.38% month - on - month, and the 3.2mm coated is 18.5 - 19.5 yuan/square meter, down 3.80% month - on - month [49][51]. - As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. The actual capacity as of mid - June is about 98,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 32.38 days, up 6.36% month - on - month [52][57]. Soda Ash: Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash supply has reached a peak, and recent maintenance has increased slightly. The current capacity utilization rate is 82.82% (last week was 86.5%), and the current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 392,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.767 million tons, with 805,000 tons of light soda ash and 962,000 tons of heavy soda ash [62][64][70]. Soda Ash: Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and this week's prices changed little. The near - month pressure is high due to delivery and trade pressure, mainly because of the weak glass market and high soda ash production. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 26 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 20.8 yuan/ton [74][76][84].

Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Report Date: May 25, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - Glass: Short - term stop - falling, medium - term oscillatory market. The short - term supply shows no significant reduction and slight复产 occurs. The demand in main sales areas and Shahe is stable, but Hubei's trading is weak. Bulls focus on policy support and low prices, while bears worry about the poor real - estate market and high inventory [6]. - Soda Ash: Short - term oscillation, still under pressure in the trend. The glass market pressure restricts soda ash price increase. High production and inventory are the core issues. Although there is export support and low - valuation factors, the industry needs the glass industry to improve [7]. Summary by Directory Glass: Supply and Downstream Start - up - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 7060 tons/day [10]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 6410 tons/day [11]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 12400 tons/day, with some planned for 2025 [13]. - Potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 10430 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [15]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7150 tons/day [17]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is expected to be limited, with the current in - production capacity at about 157,000 tons/day [19][20]. Glass: Price and Profit - Recent transactions showed a decline and then partial recovery, with overall price cuts. Shahe's price is around 1160 - 1180 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), Hubei's is 1060 - 1140 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), and East China's is 1320 - 1420 yuan/ton [23][26][27]. - Futures prices fell, basis strengthened, and monthly spreads remained stable. The profit for coal - fired units is 84 yuan/ton, for natural - gas - fired units is - 160 yuan/ton, and for petroleum - coke - fired units is - 90 yuan/ton [28][31][34]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream Start - up - East and South China's main sales areas had stable transactions, North China's improved, and Hubei's was still weak with a slight increase in inventory. Some main sales area manufacturers achieved supply - demand balance, Hebei reduced inventory, and Hubei increased inventory [38][40]. - The regional spread between Central China and Jiangsu - Zhejiang expanded, which is beneficial for Hubei to reduce inventory [43]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices were stable, but recent order follow - up decreased, and local inventory increased slightly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 13 - 13.5 yuan/square meter (down 1.85% month - on - month), and 3.2mm coated is 21 - 21.5 yuan/square meter (down 1.16% month - on - month) [50][52]. - As the market weakens, the复产 progress may slow down. The actual capacity as of the end of May is about 100,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 28.49 days (up 0.93% month - on - month) [53][54][59]. Soda Ash: Supply and Maintenance - Short - term spot prices changed little, but there is a strong expectation of future maintenance. The current capacity utilization rate is 78.6% (down from 80.2% last week), and the weekly heavy - soda production is 360,000 tons/week [63][65][68]. - The inventory is about 1.6768 million tons, with 844,000 tons of light soda ash and 832,800 tons of heavy soda ash [71][73]. Soda Ash: Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei is about 1290 - 1350 yuan/ton. Some regions' traders slightly lowered quotes, and most regions remained unchanged [79][82]. - Short - term basis changed little, with narrow - range fluctuations in spot and futures. The current market should note that the soda ash monthly spread is close to the normal structure and may turn into a contango structure [85][88]. - The profit for the East China (excluding Shandong) dual - alkali method is 268 yuan/ton, and for the North China ammonia - alkali method is 65 yuan/ton [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1纯碱市场 - The industry meeting has announced a production - cut and price - support plan. Initial maintenance in early May has been basically implemented, and the scope of maintenance is expected to expand in the middle and late May, leading to a continuous reduction in production. However, the futures market has initially shown a weak feedback, and the positive feedback is not strong. The pressure on soda ash plants has not been significantly relieved. The trend remains bearish, and further changes in maintenance need to be observed [8][9]. - The strategy suggests paying attention to the new order transaction prices, the implementation of maintenance and price - support measures. After taking profits from closing short positions, one can participate again by shorting at high prices when the price goes up [9]. 2.2 Glass market - From a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the improvement of market sentiment. Follow - up should track the changes in production lines, observe the digestion progress of low - price futures and spot sources, and the changes in the spot volume and price sentiment in the main production areas [171]. - The strategy recommends a long - position approach for far - month contracts at low prices [171]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - **Supply**: The total production is 74.07 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.79 million tons. After the holiday, maintenance has gradually started, and production is expected to decline from the high level. The new production capacity of Lianyungang Soda Plant is expected to produce trial products this month [8]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for soda ash is 71.16 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.58 million tons. The terminal has replenished inventory at low prices, and manufacturers still have some forward - delivery orders [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash plants is 170.13 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.91 million tons. The social inventory is 37.00 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.00 million tons. Under the expectation of production cuts, the plant inventory is expected to decrease in the short term, while the middle - stream inventory may stop falling and rise [8]. - **Valuation**: The cost and profit of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process are relatively stable. The basis of the market price in Shahe is 28 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: The monthly production data of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 shows certain seasonal fluctuations [15]. - **Import and Export**: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 million tons; the export volume is 19.43 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 million tons. The import dependence is 0.11 [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Futures and Spot Price Comparison**: Charts show the price trends of glass futures, Shahe heavy - soda ash market price, soda ash futures, and Shahe 5mm glass plate price from 2020 to 2025 [24][25][26][27]. - **Soda Ash Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2022 to 2026 [29][30][31]. - **Soda Ash Contract Inter - period Spread**: Charts show the spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [33][34][35]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts and the spot spread from 2021 to 2025 [37][39][40]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe Region**: The current market price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe is 1330 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 920 yuan/ton [45]. - **Regional Price of Heavy and Light Soda Ash**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions have different degrees of changes. For example, the price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe has decreased, while the prices in some other regions remain stable [49]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - up and Shutdown**: Some soda ash plants are currently under maintenance or operating at reduced loads, and many plants have planned maintenance in May and June [87]. - **Start - up Rate**: The current domestic start - up rate of soda ash is 87.74%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process are relatively stable, and the prices of related raw materials such as synthetic ammonia also show certain trends [98][111]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Demand for Heavy - Soda Ash**: The demand for heavy - soda ash is mainly affected by the production of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The current daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has decreased slightly [134][135][137]. - **Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly apparent consumption and production - sales ratio of soda ash show certain fluctuations [140]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: The market average prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass have certain trends from 2021 to 2025 [144][145]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The current inventory of soda ash enterprises is 170.13 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.91 million tons [149]. - **Regional Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash in different regions shows different trends [156][157][158]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 155,825 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1400 tons. The weekly production is 109.08 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.98 million tons [169]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 95.73 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 16.75 million tons. Market demand sentiment is weak, and the apparent demand has declined [169]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 337.80 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 12.86 million tons. Weak demand has led to a short - term increase in factory inventory [169]. - **Valuation**: The costs and profits of different production lines of glass are relatively stable. The spread between East China and Central China is 200 yuan, and the basis of the 5mm glass plate in Shahe is 162 yuan [169]. 3.9 Monthly Supply and Demand of Glass - **Production**: The monthly production data of flat glass from 2020 to 2025 shows certain seasonal fluctuations [176]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volumes of float glass also show certain trends [178][181]. 3.10 Basis and Spread of Glass - **Futures and Spot Price Comparison**: Charts show the price trends of Shahe 5mm glass plate, glass futures, Shahe heavy - soda ash market price, and soda ash futures from 2020 to 2025 [185][187][188][189]. - **Glass Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis trends of the 01, 09, and 05 contracts of Shahe 5mm glass plate from 2021 to 2026 [191][192][194]. - **Glass Contract Inter - period Spread**: Charts show the spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 contracts from 2009 to 2026 [196][197][198]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts and the spot spread from 2021 to 2025 [201][202][203]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - **Regional Price of 5mm Float Glass**: The prices of 5mm float glass in different regions have different degrees of changes. For example, the prices in Shahe have decreased, while the prices in some other regions remain stable [207]. - **Price of 5mm Glass Plate**: The prices of 5mm glass plates in different regions and different manufacturers also show certain trends [219][221][223].