9月30日，国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中，纯碱期货主力合约大幅收跌2.26%，报1255.00元/吨。 现货方面，据中财期货介绍，华南地区轻质纯碱均价为1350元/吨，重质纯碱均价为1400元/吨；东北地 区轻质纯碱均价为1350元/吨，重质纯碱均价为1400元/吨，沙河地区重质纯碱均价为1203元/吨。 展望后市，光大期货表示，在新投产能压力下纯碱宽松程度将进一步扩大，但当前基本面对市场影响程 度较弱。后续宏观刺激政策、反内卷及环保等外部题材将和纯碱羸弱的基本面持续博弈，故纯碱期价 上、下方空间都将受限，整体走势弱于玻璃。 基本面来看，建信期货指出，供应高位运行，但库存持续去化，整体偏弱格局未改。纯碱周产由降转升 至77.69，涨至今年以来最高点，环比增长4.19%。纯碱装置运行稳定，无检修消息，后期产量预计进一 步增加。 需求端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，玻璃产线冷修数量不变，整体产量不变，依旧底部徘徊，刚需生 产迹象明显，利润回升，主要来自于现货价格上行，预计下周产量继续底部。光伏玻璃走平，对整体纯 碱需求依旧不变，伴随反内卷进程，后续光伏玻璃减产加速，需求有望减弱。 ...

Investment Chain - Prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, gold, and silver have risen since September 2025. Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to 0.50%, with real estate development investment declining by 12.90% and manufacturing fixed asset investment growth at 5.10% [1] - Infrastructure investment growth rate has also decreased to 5.42%. Prices of tin and nickel have fallen, while the price of thermal coal has slightly increased to 676 RMB per ton [1] Consumption Chain - In August 2025, automobile sales growth rate increased to 16.44%, while home appliance retail sales growth rate decreased to 19.90%. The nominal growth rate of social consumption fell to 3.40% [2] - The cumulative nominal growth rate has decreased by 4.60%, and the sales area of commercial housing has seen a decline of 5.44% [2] Export Chain - In August 2025, export growth rate to the US decreased, while it increased for the EU, Japan, and ASEAN. The overall export growth rate rose to 25.52% [3] - Exports of furniture, refined oil, coke, ships, plastics, and auto parts have seen an increase, while agricultural products, toys, lighting, coal, steel, and aluminum exports have decreased [3] Price Chain - Oil prices have risen to 63.41 USD per barrel as of September 23, 2025. Prices for PVC have increased to 4695 RMB per ton, while prices for MDI have decreased [4] - Pork prices have dropped to 13.71 RMB per kilogram, and the price of domestic urea has also decreased compared to July 2025 [4]

Group 1 - The overall domestic soda ash market is showing a stable yet slightly weak trend, with some regional price declines [2] - In North China, the mainstream price for light soda ash is maintained at 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1220-1320 CNY/ton [2] - The supply from Hai Jing Yue He production line has returned to normal, leading to a slight increase in industry supply [2] Group 2 - The light soda ash price index on September 23 is 1184.29, a decrease of 4.29 from the previous working day, representing a -0.36% change [3] - The heavy soda ash price index is 1232.86, down 7.14 from the previous working day, indicating a -0.58% change [3] Group 3 - On September 23, the main futures contract SA2601 opened at 1287 CNY/ton and closed at 1273 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.60% [5] - The futures market is experiencing a weak oscillation pattern, influenced by the low sentiment in the chemical sector and the decline in glass futures prices [5] - Despite some pre-holiday inventory replenishment, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to high supply levels and increasing losses for companies [5] Group 4 - Future supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, with limited maintenance plans, while demand is stable with modest support from pre-holiday stocking [6] - Current manufacturer inventory pressure is not significant, and there is a strong intention to maintain prices, suggesting that future prices will likely oscillate and stabilize [6]

| 规格 | 市场 | 9 月 16 日 | 9 月 17 日 | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1170-1270 | 1170-1270 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1130-1550 | 1130-1550 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1140-1320 | 1140-1320 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1000-1200 | -1000-1200 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1200-1310 | 1200-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1360-1430 | 1360-1430 | 0/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1300-1400 | 1300-1400 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1240-1320 | 1250-1320 | 10/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1260-1320 | 1270-1320 | 10/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1280-1350- | 1280-1350 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1000- ...

Industry Research Summary - Soda Ash Industry Industry Overview - The soda ash industry is characterized by simple processes and limited competition due to resource barriers. The main production methods include ammonia-soda process, dual-soda process, and natural soda process. The natural soda process is favored for its cost advantages, with production costs as low as 500-600 RMB per ton [2][3]. Key Insights - **Natural Soda Process Market Share**: Currently, the natural soda process holds a market share of only 15%, primarily contributed by Boyuan Chemical. This is a significant increase from less than 5% in 2022. Future expansions, such as the Alashan Phase II project, are expected to increase this share [1][3][4]. - **Price Influences**: Soda ash prices are primarily influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than upstream raw material costs. Prices surged during 2020-2021 due to supply shortages but declined in 2022 with new capacity additions. A continued increase in supply pressure is expected to lead to further price declines in 2024-2025 [1][5][11]. - **Downstream Demand**: The main downstream applications for soda ash include flat glass (46%), daily-use glass (20%), and photovoltaic glass (13%). The demand for flat glass is expected to decline due to a weakening real estate market, while photovoltaic glass is projected to be a significant growth area, with a 54% increase in production in 2023 [1][6][7]. Future Projections - **Demand Growth**: Soda ash demand is projected to grow by approximately 2.64% by 2025, with photovoltaic glass contributing the most significant growth rate of 3.9%. The decline in flat glass demand due to real estate market pressures necessitates a focus on photovoltaic and flat glass sectors [7][8]. - **Capacity Expansion**: The industry is expected to see significant capacity expansion, with Boyuan Chemical's Phase I project reaching 5 million tons, leading to a total capacity of 43.5 million tons by the end of 2024. This increase will contribute to rising inventory levels, which may pressure prices [1][9][10]. Inventory and Price Trends - **Current Inventory Levels**: Soda ash inventory is currently high at approximately 1.8 million tons, which poses a significant challenge for price recovery. Future price movements will largely depend on inventory digestion [10][11]. - **Price Forecast**: Prices are expected to stabilize between 1,250 and 1,350 RMB when supply-demand balance is achieved, particularly as higher-cost producers exit the market [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - **Key Players**: Boyuan Chemical remains a leading supplier due to its cost advantages. Other companies like Zhongyan Chemical and Shandong Haohua are also noteworthy as they have secured mining rights for natural soda projects, although their market impact will not be felt until 2027 [13]. Boyuan Chemical faces risks related to its Mengda Mining project, which may affect its stock performance [13].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry, particularly the soda ash sector, is entering a new downward price cycle due to increased production capacity and other factors, leading to negative profit margins for the industry by 2024 [1][3]. Supply Side - Soda ash production capacity accelerated in 2023, surpassing 40 million tons (up 19.5% year-on-year), with projections to reach 43.45 million tons in 2024, marking a 24.6% increase over two years [4]. - The production volume is also expected to rise, reaching 36.21 million tons in 2024 (up 21.4% year-on-year), the highest growth rate since 2007 [4]. - The structure of production capacity is changing significantly, with the proportion of natural soda ash increasing from 5% in 2022 to 16% in 2024, and further to 19% in the first seven months of 2025 [4]. - Major contributors to this increase include projects from companies like Boyuan Chemical and China Salt Chemical, which leverage the cost advantages of natural soda ash [4]. Demand Side - The demand for soda ash is primarily driven by the glass industry, with flat glass accounting for 46% of apparent consumption in 2024, translating to 35.96 million tons [2]. - The real estate sector is a significant factor affecting demand, with construction area declining by 12.7% year-on-year in 2024, impacting flat glass demand negatively [5]. - However, automotive glass demand is providing some support, with a 10.5% increase in vehicle production in the first seven months of 2025 [6]. - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing short-term fluctuations but is expected to maintain long-term growth, with production projected to reach 27.34 million tons in 2024 (up 30.92% year-on-year) [6]. Competitive Landscape - The cost differences among various production methods are significant, with natural soda ash having the lowest unit cost at approximately 1000-1200 RMB/ton in 2024, compared to 1400-1600 RMB/ton for the joint alkali method and 1500-1700 RMB/ton for the ammonia-soda method [6]. - Regions rich in natural soda ash and raw materials, such as Inner Mongolia and Henan, have a clear cost advantage, which is expected to influence the competitive dynamics in the industry [6]. Industry Outlook - The industry is facing pressure to optimize supply, with a focus on phasing out high-cost production methods and controlling low-level capacity expansion [7]. - Demand recovery is anticipated through potential easing of real estate policies and a return to growth in the photovoltaic sector [7]. - Policy guidance is crucial for enhancing energy efficiency standards and promoting the development of green production methods like natural soda ash [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with prices remaining unchanged across various regions, while demand from downstream sectors is weak, leading to a cautious purchasing strategy [2][5]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in North China are at 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are at 1210-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - In East China, light soda ash prices range from 1130-1470 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1260-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - Other regional prices for light and heavy soda ash are also reported, with no significant changes noted [1]. Index Analysis - As of September 3, the light soda ash price index is at 1175.71, and the heavy soda ash price index is at 1231.43, both remaining stable compared to the previous working day [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On September 3, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1267 CNY/ton and closed at 1276 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.24% [5]. - The market is experiencing a slight rebound, but the overall fundamentals remain weak, influenced by factors such as the solar industry's internal competition and potential production halts from major manufacturers [5]. Market Outlook - Future predictions indicate that as production facilities resume operations and fewer companies plan maintenance, market activity may gradually increase [6]. - However, with weak downstream demand and a focus on essential purchases, the soda ash market is expected to continue a stable but weak trend in the short term [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report 2. Core Views - The overall trend of soda ash futures is in a volatile phase, with supply slightly contracting and downstream demand remaining weak. High inventory levels are being slowly reduced, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [6]. - The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend. The spot market has seen a slight increase in some areas, with inventory decreasing slightly in some regions due to downstream replenishment. However, high inventory levels are restricting price increases. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [27]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase [6]. - Trend logic: The domestic soda ash spot market remained weak last week, with both light and heavy soda ash prices at low levels. Supply slightly contracted, but downstream demand was weak. High inventory was slowly reduced, and the futures market first rose and then fell, with insufficient rebound momentum [6]. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [6]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soda ash market continued to be weak last week, with prices under pressure. The supply - demand imbalance in the futures market remained unchanged, and it was expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile and weak pattern. The operating range of Soda Ash 2601 was 1300 - 1450, and it was advisable to remain on the sidelines [9]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The domestic soda ash market remained weak last week, with prices at low levels. The futures market first rose and then fell, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The operating range of Soda Ash 2601 is 1300 - 1450, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [10]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差, and ammonia - alkali production cost in North China [11][14][16] Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Glass is in a volatile trend [27]. - Trend logic: The domestic float glass market was stable with slight local increases last week. Inventory digestion and peak - season expectations drove downstream replenishment, but high inventory restricted price increases. The futures market first rose and then fell, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [27]. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [27]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The domestic float glass market declined weakly last week, with prices generally falling. The futures market also weakened, and it was expected to remain weak in the short term. The expected operating range of Glass 2601 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [30]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The domestic float glass spot market was stable with slight local increases last week. The futures market first rose and then fell, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The expected operating range of Glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差, and期末库存 [32][35][38]

今日国内纯碱市场整体延续稳中偏弱格局。截至目前，华北地区轻质纯碱价格在1220-1320元/吨，重质纯碱价格在 1240-1350元/吨；东北地区轻质纯碱价格在1330-1410元/吨，重质纯碱价格在1340-1500元/吨。供应方面，五彩碱业装置 自今日起停车检修，陕西兴化近期亦有检修计划，行业整体供应呈现收缩态势；下游需求波动有限，企业多维持刚需 补库，对市场支撑力度不足；部分厂家采取灵活接单策略，整体市场以窄幅震荡运行为主。 | 规格 | 市场 | 8月25日 | 8月26日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1220-1320 | 1220-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1150-1460 | 1150-1420 | 0/-40 | | | 华中市场 | 1150-1360 | 1150-1320 | 0/-40 | | | 西北市场 | 1020-1200 | -1020-1200 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1220-1310 | 1220-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with prices remaining stable but under pressure due to weak downstream demand and cautious purchasing behavior from enterprises [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 18, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in various regions is as follows: Northwest at 1050-1200 CNY/ton, Northeast at 1330-1410 CNY/ton. Heavy soda ash prices are 1050-1180 CNY/ton in the Northwest and 1360-1520 CNY/ton in the Northeast [2]. - The soda ash price index on August 18 shows a decline, with the light soda ash index at 1228.57 (down 1.43, -0.12%) and the heavy soda ash index at 1272.86 (down 11.43, -0.89%) [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 18, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1398 CNY/ton and closed at 1386 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 1.56%. The trading range was between 1370 and 1413 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,398,920 contracts, down by 10,970 contracts [5]. - The futures market is characterized by weak fluctuations, driven by supply-demand imbalances, with manufacturers accumulating inventory and weak downstream demand suppressing price increases [5]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term due to a strong supply and weak demand situation, with close attention needed on inventory changes and recovery in downstream demand [6].