今日国内纯碱市场整体延续稳中偏弱格局。截至目前，华北地区轻质纯碱价格在1220-1320元/吨，重质纯碱价格在 1240-1350元/吨；东北地区轻质纯碱价格在1330-1410元/吨，重质纯碱价格在1340-1500元/吨。供应方面，五彩碱业装置 自今日起停车检修，陕西兴化近期亦有检修计划，行业整体供应呈现收缩态势；下游需求波动有限，企业多维持刚需 补库，对市场支撑力度不足；部分厂家采取灵活接单策略，整体市场以窄幅震荡运行为主。 | 规格 | 市场 | 8月25日 | 8月26日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1220-1320 | 1220-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1150-1460 | 1150-1420 | 0/-40 | | | 华中市场 | 1150-1360 | 1150-1320 | 0/-40 | | | 西北市场 | 1020-1200 | -1020-1200 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1220-1310 | 1220-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with prices remaining stable but under pressure due to weak downstream demand and cautious purchasing behavior from enterprises [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 18, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in various regions is as follows: Northwest at 1050-1200 CNY/ton, Northeast at 1330-1410 CNY/ton. Heavy soda ash prices are 1050-1180 CNY/ton in the Northwest and 1360-1520 CNY/ton in the Northeast [2]. - The soda ash price index on August 18 shows a decline, with the light soda ash index at 1228.57 (down 1.43, -0.12%) and the heavy soda ash index at 1272.86 (down 11.43, -0.89%) [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 18, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1398 CNY/ton and closed at 1386 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 1.56%. The trading range was between 1370 and 1413 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,398,920 contracts, down by 10,970 contracts [5]. - The futures market is characterized by weak fluctuations, driven by supply-demand imbalances, with manufacturers accumulating inventory and weak downstream demand suppressing price increases [5]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term due to a strong supply and weak demand situation, with close attention needed on inventory changes and recovery in downstream demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash market is in a state of high supply and weak demand, with the spot market expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures market to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - The glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with the spot market expected to continue its weak oscillation, and the futures market to be restricted by factors such as high inventory and weak demand. It is advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillation phase. The spot market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with the mainstream price of light soda ash at 1060 - 1470 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash at 1060 - 1520 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures may remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash market was weak last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply first tightened due to enterprise maintenance and then recovered, while the demand remained weak. The market sentiment turned from wait - and - see to cautiously bearish. It was expected that the market would maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1250 - 1400. It was advisable to wait and see [11]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The supply of the soda ash market is high and the inventory is under pressure, while the demand is weak. The core contradiction is the game between high supply and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation in the short term. The operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1300 - 1450. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly soda ash production, weekly soda ash operating rate, weekly light and heavy soda ash inventory, daily soda ash basis, and weekly ammonia - soda process production cost in North China. The multi - empty flow is - 97.4, the capital energy is 76.2, and the multi - empty divergence is 91.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [13][16][18][22] Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass is in an oscillation trend. The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market generally fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The futures are also in a weakening oscillation. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market decreased last week. The demand was weak, and the supply increased after resumption. The market was in a weak oscillation. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150. It was advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [32]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The expected operating range of glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [33]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly float glass production, weekly float glass operating rate, weekly production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily glass basis, and weekly float glass ending inventory. The multi - empty flow is - 98.8, the capital energy is 15.3, and the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [35][38][40][45]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable with slight fluctuations in prices, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to inventory pressure for soda ash companies [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 12, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, and for heavy soda ash, it is 1290-1370 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash is priced at 1330-1410 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1390-1520 CNY/ton [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The overall operation of soda ash plants is stable, with a relatively high industry operating rate and sufficient market supply. However, the downstream demand sentiment is poor, leading to a cautious purchasing atmosphere [2][6]. Futures Market - On August 12, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1345 CNY/ton and closed at 1409 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.31%. The market was influenced by potential environmental disruptions in Qinghai and rising costs, despite the lack of significant improvement in the fundamentals [5][6]. Future Outlook - The number of companies undergoing maintenance is low, resulting in a loose supply in the soda ash market. With limited order growth and a lack of clear driving factors, short-term soda ash prices are expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation trend [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.92 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 740 million yuan, down 38.6% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the revenue was 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3%, with a net profit of 400 million yuan, down 36.9% year-on-year but up 19.0% quarter-on-quarter [5][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 5.92 billion yuan, with a net profit of 740 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 38.6%. Q2 2025 saw a revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 400 million yuan, indicating a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 19.0% [5][7]. Market Conditions - The company operates in a challenging market environment, with product prices significantly declining in 2025. The average prices for key products like heavy soda ash and light soda ash fell by 34.2% and 34.7% respectively in H1 2025 [12]. Growth Potential - The company is viewed positively for its long-term investment opportunities due to its strong safety margin and growth potential. It has a high dividend payout ratio, with expected dividends in 2024 corresponding to a yield of over 5%. The company is anticipated to maintain strong dividend potential as new projects come online [7][12]. Future Projections - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.47 billion yuan, 2.09 billion yuan, and 2.41 billion yuan respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors with significant supply elasticity and competitive advantages, particularly in the chemical industry, due to structural optimization on the supply side [7][8]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to become a key focus for the chemical supply side, with attention on sectors that can compress supply and companies with relative advantages [7][15]. - Strong demand in semiconductor and robotics sectors is highlighted, with significant growth in global silicon wafer shipments and a projected market size for robotics exceeding $400 billion by 2029, with China holding nearly half of the market share [7][16][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic chemical companies in filling gaps in the international supply chain, driven by cost advantages and technological advancements [7][18]. Summary by Sections Industry News and Events - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to optimize market competition and address "involution" in the chemical industry, with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) taking steps to regulate chaotic competition [7][15]. - Reports from SEMI and IDC indicate robust demand in the semiconductor and robotics sectors, with significant growth in silicon wafer shipments and a forecasted growth rate of nearly 15% for the robotics market in China [7][16][17]. Chemical Sector Performance - For the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.75%, while the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index decreased by 1.46%, outperforming the broader market by 0.29% [20][23]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included synthetic resins and rubber products, while the weakest performers were related to civil explosives and chlor-alkali products [20][23][28]. Price Trends - Notable price increases were observed in light soda ash (up 8.25%) and soft foam polyether (up 6.04%), while significant declines were seen in PTFE (down 26.19%) and methyl acrylate (down 7.16%) [20][33]. - The report tracks price differentials, with the largest increases in the price differential for adipic acid versus benzene (up 16.78%) [20][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with significant supply elasticity, such as organic silicon, membrane materials, and dyes, while also identifying leading companies in these areas [8][19]. - It highlights the potential for growth in the food additives sector driven by new consumption trends and regulatory support, as well as opportunities in domestic chemical materials due to increasing self-sufficiency [9][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase, with short - term stability and potential minor increases in some regions. The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend, with short - term upward potential but facing adjustment risks [6][31]. - For both soda ash and glass futures, the current recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Last week, the domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend. The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity remains, limiting price increases. The futures are expected to show high - level volatility [6]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The soda ash futures were volatile last week. The spot market had weak supply - demand conditions, with an operating rate of 84.10%. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulation indicated an oversupply situation. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The industry's operating rate decreased slightly. Policy supports prices, but over - capacity persists. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 is 1250 - 1450, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a volatile trend. Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend, showing regional price differentiation. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures market first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment. In the short term, prices may still have upward space, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy implementation [31]. - The recommended mid - term strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**：The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend last week, showing regional differentiation. The futures were more volatile, first rising and then falling, and were expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 was 1000 - 1200, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**：The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. Supply decreased slightly but remained abundant, and demand was mainly for immediate needs. The futures first declined and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range for glass 2509 is 1200 - 1400, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [35]. - **Related Data** - Data includes China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit using natural - gas - fueled float technology, basis (daily), and ending inventory [37][43][46].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market continues to rise, driven by stable downstream demand and a slight decrease in supply due to maintenance at production facilities [2][5]. Price Trends - As of July 25, the price of light soda ash in North China is between 1270-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1370-1420 CNY/ton. In East China, light soda ash ranges from 1270-1510 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash is between 1360-1420 CNY/ton [2]. - The soda ash price index for light soda ash on July 25 is 1281.43, up 35.71 from the previous working day, a rise of 2.87%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1344.29, increasing by 42.86, or 3.29% [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On July 25, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1411 CNY/ton and closed at 1440 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.57%. The highest price during the day was 1456 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1405 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 905,281 contracts, a decrease of 21,639 contracts [5]. - The futures market is influenced by optimistic sentiment from the chemical sector and policies aimed at reducing competition, leading to significant price increases [5]. Market Outlook - The domestic soda ash market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term, supported by policy measures. However, the overall overcapacity in the industry may limit further price increases [6]. - It is advised to closely monitor changes in downstream demand and inventory levels of enterprises [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with prices holding firm but limited upward support due to a balanced supply-demand situation [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of July 15, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1150-1250 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1340 CNY/ton. In Central China, light soda ash is priced at 1110-1310 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1220-1340 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on July 15 is 1157.14, reflecting a slight increase of 1.43, or 0.12%, from the previous working day. The heavy soda ash price index remains unchanged at 1225.71 [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market experienced a slight decline on July 15, with the main contract opening at 1240 CNY/ton and closing at 1214 CNY/ton, marking a daily drop of 0.65%. The highest price during the day was 1247 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1202 CNY/ton, with total open interest increasing by 52,588 contracts to 1,585,075 [5]. - The supply side shows scattered maintenance and some companies increasing production, maintaining high output levels. However, industry profits are declining, putting pressure on producers. Downstream demand remains weak, with buyers primarily engaging in low-price essential purchases [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable operation in the short term, with weak driving forces and an unchanged supply-demand balance. Future attention should be given to macroeconomic policy changes and inventory fluctuations that may impact the market [6].

Investment Chain - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and silver have risen since June 2025. Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to 3.70% as of May 2025, with real estate development investment declining by 10.70% and manufacturing fixed asset investment down to 8.50% [1][2] - Infrastructure investment growth rate has also decreased to 10.42%. Since June 2025, prices of gold, zinc, and nickel have fallen, while coal prices slightly decreased to 663 RMB/ton [1][2] Consumption Chain - Retail sales growth rate has increased, with nominal growth rebounding to 6.40% in May 2025 and cumulative growth rising to 5.00%. Automobile sales growth rate for May 2025 increased to 11.15% [2][3] - The cumulative growth rate for commercial housing sales has declined to -3.62%. Retail sales of home appliances surged with a growth rate of 56.98% in May 2025 [2][3] Export Chain - Export growth rates to the US, Japan, and ASEAN have decreased, while exports to the EU have increased. In May 2025, the export growth rate for toys, lighting, coke, coal, steel, ships, plastics, and auto parts rose, while agricultural products, furniture, and refined oil exports saw declines [3][4] - The electronic export growth rate increased to 21.17% in May 2025, while textile and clothing exports fell to 1.98% [3][4] Price Chain - Oil prices rose, with WTI reaching 64.37 USD/barrel on June 24, 2025. Prices for PVC and MDI have decreased, with PVC at 4680 RMB/ton and pure MDI at 17100 RMB/ton as of June 20, 2025 [4] - Pork prices dropped to 14.45 RMB/kg on June 11, 2025, while new credit increased to 620 billion RMB in May 2025 [4]