基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20260104 国际油价小幅上涨，草甘膦、环氧丙烷价格下跌 一月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、 下游需求旺盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司与涨价背景下的部分新能源材料 公司。 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 ◼ 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525100001 ◼ 本周（12.29-01.04）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 32 个品种价格上涨，29 个品种价 格下跌，39 个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中 51%的产品月均价环比上涨，39%的产品月均 价环比下跌，10%的产品月均价环比持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是苯乙烯（FOB 韩 国）、煤焦油（山西）、 ...

消息面 截止到2025年12月25日，本周国内纯碱厂家总库存143.85万吨，较周一下降6.19万吨，跌幅4.13%。其中，轻质纯碱73.55万吨，环比增加0.63万 吨，重质纯碱70.30万吨，环比下降6.82万吨。较上周四下降6.08万吨，跌幅4.06%。 12月25日，江苏昆山锦港纯碱装置负荷下降，价格下降，轻质纯碱报价出厂1350-1370元/吨；江苏井神化工纯碱装置恢复，价格稳定，轻质报价 出厂1300元/吨。 12月24日，纯碱前20名期货公司(全月份合约加总)多单持仓75.73万手，空单持仓93.11万手，多空比0.81。净持仓为-17.38万手，相较上日增加7780 手。 正信期货： 短期商品情绪尚可，但纯碱基本面变化有限，短期区间震荡为主，在供大于求格局未有明显改善下，中期趋势仍以逢反弹偏空思路对待。 机构观点 财信期货： 重碱需求受浮法玻璃产量下降拖累，光伏玻璃难放量，全年需求增速或为小幅负增长状态。受益于碳酸锂产能扩张及出口改善，轻碱需求有望继 续增长。但由于纯碱产能基数庞大，氨碱产能成本线将不断受到冲击，价格上涨的驱动将主要来自于供应端的被动减产。观点：纯碱主力合约震 荡区间或在110 ...

机构观点 建信期货：整体来看，纯碱市场短期仍处于供强需弱的格局之中，高库存压力难以快速化解，成本支撑虽逐步显现，但驱动有限。在供需结构未 发生明显转变前，预计盘面价格将继续在低位区间震荡磨底，操作上建议以观望为主，谨慎对待反弹行情，关注后续供需边际变化与政策端动 向。 12月18日，江苏昆山锦港纯碱装置负荷下降，价格稳定，轻质纯碱报价出厂1380-1400元。江苏井神化工纯碱装置减量，价格稳定，轻质报价出厂 1300元/吨。 截止到2025年12月18日，本周国内纯碱厂家总库存149.93万吨，较上周四增加0.50万吨，涨幅0.33%。 12月18日国内纯碱企业库存总量在138.6万吨(含部分厂家外库库存)，较12月11日库存增加1.2万吨，增幅0.9%，同比下降12.4%，其中重碱库存 64.4万吨，较12月11日库存下降0.2万吨，降幅0.3%。 12月18日，纯碱期货延续偏强走势，截至发稿主力合约报1192.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.05%。 【消息面汇总】 五矿期货：随着检修企业陆续复产，加上阿拉善地区新增产能释放预期升温，市场供应压力逐步凸显。下游需求尚未出现明显好转，采购仍以刚 需补库为主，整体备货 ...

| 规格 | 市场 | 12月8日 | 12月9日 | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1220-1320 | 1220-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1200-1620 | 1200-1620 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1160-1370 | 1160-1370 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 930-1120 | -930-1120 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1220-1310 | 1220-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1350-1430 | 1350-1430 | 0/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1340-1470 | 1340-1470 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1170-1320 | 1170-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1260-1320 | 1260-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1220-1320- | 1220-1320 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 890-1020 | 890- ...

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash industry is facing challenges due to oversupply and weak demand, necessitating a shift from price competition to value competition through technological advancements and green manufacturing practices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - By 2025, the soda ash market is expected to experience a supply surplus and weak demand, with high inventory levels indicating a cyclical adjustment phase [2]. - Domestic soda ash production capacity is projected to exceed 40 million tons by 2024, with a production increase of 493.1 million tons year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year [2]. - The core downstream demand for soda ash comes from float glass, which accounts for 35%-40% of total demand, but new construction in the real estate sector has declined, limiting growth [2]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - Starting from March 2024, soda ash inventory rose from 400,000 tons to a peak of 1.9 million tons, stabilizing above 1.4 million tons [3]. - As of November 27, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.409 million tons, with delivery warehouse inventory at 583,800 tons [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The industry is facing intensified homogenization, with some companies resorting to price competition, which has compressed overall profit margins [4]. - The price of heavy soda ash peaked at 3,681 yuan per ton in October 2021, but has since fluctuated between 1,218.57 and 1,344.29 yuan in the third quarter of this year [4]. - Natural soda ash is gaining market share due to its cost advantages, increasing from 5% in 2022 to 17% in 2025, positioning it favorably against other production methods [4]. Group 4: Path to Value Competition - The industry must transition from price competition to value competition, emphasizing technological and service upgrades to enhance competitiveness [5]. - There is a pressing need to develop high-value products for high-end sectors like renewable energy, which currently lack sufficient production capacity [5]. - Innovations in clean production methods and resource utilization are being prioritized, with companies exploring technologies such as using industrial waste salt for soda ash production [5]. Group 5: Collaborative Ecosystem and Global Expansion - Companies are shifting from independent operations to collaborative ecosystems, with industry leaders like China Salt Group leading initiatives to foster innovation through partnerships [6]. - Chinese soda ash production technology is being exported globally, exemplified by the launch of Indonesia's first soda ash project utilizing Chinese methods, contributing to the diversification of the global soda ash supply chain [6]. - The future of China's soda ash industry lies in enhancing high-end product supply, promoting green processes, and integrating value chains to establish a competitive edge in the global market [6].

| 規格 | 市场 | 12月5日 | 12月8日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1220-1320 | 1220-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1200-1620 | 1200-1620 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1120-1370 | 1160-1370 | 40/0 | | | 西北市场 | 930-1120 | -930-1120 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1220-1310 | 1220-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1350-1430 | 1350-1430 | 0/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1340-1470 | 1340-1470 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1170-1320 | 1170-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1260-1320 | 1260-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1220-1320- | 1220-1320 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 890-1020 | 89 ...

Core Insights - The domestic soda ash market is stable overall, with slight adjustments in some regions [2] - Supply is expected to fluctuate slightly due to maintenance plans at several production facilities [2] - Downstream demand remains cautious, with new orders performing generally below expectations [2] Price Analysis - In North China, the mainstream price for light soda ash is maintained at 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1190-1320 CNY/ton [2] - In East China, light soda ash prices range from 1200-1620 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash is at 1260-1320 CNY/ton [2] - The price index for light soda ash on November 2 was 11195.71, a decrease of 2.86, or -0.24%, while the heavy soda ash index remained stable at 1211.43 [3] Futures Market - On December 2, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1177 CNY/ton and closed at 1183 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.28% [5] - The market is experiencing low-level consolidation, with insufficient driving forces for price movement [5] - Despite inventory reduction providing slight support, general downstream demand is weak, leading to a heavy market sentiment [5] Market Outlook - There are expectations of contraction in both supply and downstream demand for soda ash, with manufacturers maintaining stable pricing strategies [6] - The market is likely to continue its stable trend in the short term, with ongoing attention needed on production dynamics and downstream purchasing rhythms [6]

Investment Chain - Prices of tin, silver, and gold have risen since November 2025. [1] - Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to -1.70% as of October 2025, with real estate development investment down by -14.70%. [1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate is at 2.7%, while infrastructure investment growth rate is at 1.51%. [1] - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while power coal prices slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. [1] Consumption Chain - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. [2] - Nominal growth rate for October 2025 fell to 2.90%, with cumulative nominal growth rate down by 4.30%. [2] - Sales area of commercial housing saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -7.63% in October 2025. [2] - Automobile sales growth rate decreased to 8.82% in October 2025, and home appliance retail sales fell by -10.25%. [2] Export Chain - Export growth rate to the US increased in October 2025, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. [3] - Cumulative export growth rates for products like agricultural goods, toys, furniture, and steel have decreased. [3] - The overall export growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports down by -9.10%. [3] Price Chain - Pork prices increased to 12.24 RMB/kg as of November 19, 2025, while oil prices decreased to 57.95 USD/barrel. [4] - Prices for cotton and white sugar have declined, while MDI prices showed mixed trends. [4] - New credit increased to 220 billion RMB in October 2025, with life insurance premium income growth rate down to 12.68%. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage. The core contradiction of high supply and weak demand remains unresolved, and the price center has shifted downwards. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - The float glass market is in a weak and volatile trend. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the short - term weak situation is difficult to change. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The domestic soda ash market was generally stable last week. The supply contracted due to some device overhauls, but it was still abundant. The demand was divided, with light soda demand relatively stable and heavy soda demand continuously weak. Coal cost increase and industry losses provided support for prices. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong cost, and it was expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term. The soda ash futures price oscillated downward, and the main contract fell below the key point. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. Light soda prices rose slightly, and heavy soda prices remained stable. Supply contracted but demand was stable, with obvious cost support. It was expected to continue narrow - range consolidation under the oversupply pattern. The futures were in a tug - of - war, and it was expected that the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic soda ash market remained stable last week. Light soda demand was stable, and heavy soda demand was weak. Supply decreased slightly due to overhauls but was still abundant. Cost support and enterprises' willingness to stabilize prices were obvious. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong cost, and it was expected to continue to oscillate in the short term. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [12]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light - soda inventory, heavy - soda inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda process production cost in North China [13][17][19]. Float Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The float glass market was in a weak and volatile trend. The domestic float glass market declined weakly last week, with prices in various regions generally falling by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The supply was generally abundant, and downstream demand was continuously weak. Enterprises' shipment pressure increased, and most adopted price - cut promotions, but the transactions were mainly low - priced resources. The overall inventory was still in an accumulating trend. The supply - demand contradiction in the futures market was prominent, and the short - term weak situation was difficult to change. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see, and pay attention to inventory destocking and policy trends in the follow - up [31]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic float glass market was weak last week, with prices stable with a slight decline. Supply was sufficient but downstream orders were limited. Manufacturers mainly focused on reducing inventory and shipping. Cost provided support but the market lacked positive factors. The futures market was in a weak and volatile trend [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The float glass market was weak last week, with spot prices generally falling. Supply was abundant while demand was weak. Enterprises carried out price - cut promotions, and the overall inventory pressure remained. The futures market declined unilaterally, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent. It was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [35]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly float glass production,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory [37][40][44].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with prices holding steady across various regions, while supply and demand dynamics indicate a challenging environment for producers [2][5]. Price Analysis - Light soda ash prices in North China are maintained at 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are at 1200-1320 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash ranges from 1260-1370 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash is priced at 1340-1420 CNY/ton [2]. - The soda ash price index for light soda ash is 1155.71, and for heavy soda ash, it is 1211.43, remaining unchanged from the previous working day [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply side: Ningxia Risheng's soda ash facility is undergoing maintenance, and Lianyungang Debang's facility is operating at reduced capacity. Overall market operations have slightly decreased [2]. - Demand side: Downstream enterprises are maintaining low inventory levels and are purchasing only as needed, leading to weak and stable demand [2]. Futures Market - On November 4, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1199 CNY/ton and closed at 1189 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 1.74%. The total open interest increased by 40,018 contracts [5]. - The soda ash futures market is characterized by low-level fluctuations, with a focus returning to fundamental supply and demand conditions [5]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations due to mixed factors, with weak demand suppressing prices while strong cost support provides a floor [6]. Future attention should be directed towards changes in production facilities and downstream purchasing patterns [6].