10月16日盘中，纯苯期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至5662.0元。截止发稿，纯苯主力合约 报5652.0元，涨幅1.20%。 正信期货：预计短期纯苯延续偏弱震荡 现货方面，纯苯小幅震荡，贸易商逢低接货，换月价差持稳。现货成交区间10下5600-5640，11下5570- 5610。库存方面，截至2025年10月13日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量9.0万吨，较上期去库0.1万 吨，环比下降1.10%；较去年同期累库1.7万吨，同比上升23.29%。需求方面，在缺乏终端需求实质性回 暖信号的背景下，需求端对价格的支撑有限。苯乙烯现货方面，苯乙烯盘面弱势震荡，低位买气稍有好 转，月下基差走强5块。现货EB11-10~+5商谈，10下EB11+25~+30成交。换货方面，现货换10下升水30 成交，10换11升水35~40成交。现货商谈区间6500-6570，10下6530-6600。总结来看：供应逐步释放， 但加氢苯产量有所下降，总体国产纯苯供应持稳。消费端受苯乙烯、苯酚影响总需求下降，纯苯基本面 利好有限。策略：成本支撑弱化叠加供需宽松格局难改，预计短期纯苯延续偏弱震荡。 南华期货：短时纯苯现货流动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main sentiment in the market for pure benzene futures is bearish, with a slight decline observed in prices and expectations of continued volatility in the near term [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 29, pure benzene futures experienced a weak fluctuation, with the main contract dropping to a low of 5867.0 yuan and closing at 5885.0 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.36% [1]. - The overall market sentiment indicates that the rebound in pure benzene prices is relatively weak, influenced by high import volumes and expectations of declining demand [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that the rebound in pure benzene prices is weak, with a slight recovery followed by fluctuations due to increased operational rates and lower processing margins [2]. - Zhengxin Futures anticipates that the short-term outlook for pure benzene will continue to exhibit a volatile pattern, as supply gradually increases while demand from downstream sectors declines [3]. - Huatai Futures suggests a cautious approach, observing that domestic production remains high while import arrivals slow down, leading to a mixed outlook for downstream purchasing behavior post-holiday [4].

纯苯、苯乙烯周报 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年7月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：短期反内卷情绪高涨，实际影响有限，压缩EB利润 纯苯 01 纯苯期货合约规则 | 交易品种 | 纯苯 | | --- | --- | | 交易单位 | 30 吨/手 | | 报价单位 | 元 (人民币) /吨 | | 最小变动单位 | 1 元/吨 | | 涨跌停板幅度 | 上一交易日结算价的 4% | | 合约月份 | 1、2、3、4、5、6、7、8、9、10、11、12 月 | | 交易时间 每周一至周五上午 | 9:00－11:30，下午 13:30－15:00，以及交易所规定的其他交易时间 | | 最后交易日 | 合约月份倒数第 个交易日 4 | | 最后交割日 | 最后交易日后第 3 个交易日 | | 交割等级 | 大连商品交易所纯苯交割质量标准 | | 交割地点 | 大连商品交易所纯苯指定交割仓库 | | 最低交易保证金 | 合约价值的 8％ ...

Core Viewpoint - The current supply of pure benzene in Shandong is tight, with potential improvement in demand expected in July [1][5]. Supply Analysis - Recent short-term maintenance of HDA units and several reforming units in Shandong has led to a reduction in overall supply [1]. - The high proportion of Iranian oil usage in Shandong may lead to raw material shortages if conflicts escalate, impacting pure benzene production [1]. - The overall storage capacity for pure benzene in Shandong is approximately 70,000 to 100,000 tons, equivalent to 7 to 10 days of production, but hidden inventories are difficult to quantify [1][2]. Demand Analysis - There has been a notable restart of styrene units recently, and significant destocking of caprolactam indicates good demand, which may lead to an increase in pure benzene demand [1]. - Downstream enterprises are maintaining just-in-time purchasing due to significant price fluctuations and low inventory levels [1]. Inventory Insights - The low inventory levels of pure benzene and its nature as a by-product contribute to significant price volatility [1]. - There may be hidden inventory issues this year, with downstream factories holding low stock levels while traders may have more inventory [1]. Market Dynamics - The spot trading of pure benzene in Shandong is primarily based on current market conditions rather than financial attributes, giving strong pricing power to companies with high purity requirements [2]. - The Shandong region accounts for about 14% of the national pure benzene production capacity, significantly influencing price dynamics [5]. Company Insights - Company A primarily procures pure benzene through spot transactions and has a positive outlook for July demand [7]. - Company B has a significant transportation capacity and is exploring futures trading, indicating a proactive approach to market changes [11]. - Company C focuses on just-in-time purchasing and does not plan to participate in the futures market, reflecting a conservative strategy [12]. - Company D actively engages in both paper and futures markets for hedging purposes, indicating a sophisticated financial strategy [15]. - Company E maintains low inventory levels and primarily sells to the Shandong region, with plans for potential expansion in storage capacity [17]. - Company F has overseas contracts for pure benzene and notes that regional pricing is influenced by a few key factories [19]. - Company G participates in futures for hedging and has a comprehensive logistics network, enhancing its market position [20].

Group 1 - The article discusses the definition and classification of pure benzene, highlighting its significance as a basic petrochemical raw material and its carcinogenic properties [2][8]. - Pure benzene is categorized into two types: petroleum benzene and coking benzene, with distinct production processes and quality standards [5][8]. - The quality standards for petroleum benzene and coking benzene are specified, including purity levels and allowable impurities [6][7]. Group 2 - The production processes for pure benzene include reforming, cracking, and toluene disproportionation, with various sources contributing to its supply [11][12]. - The global pure benzene production capacity is projected to reach 83.31 million tons by 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [29]. - China’s pure benzene capacity is expected to be 25.73 million tons by 2024, with a growth rate of 6.9% [31]. Group 3 - China is a net importer of pure benzene, with imports expected to reach 3.768 million tons in 2024, a 31.1% increase year-on-year [40]. - The global demand for pure benzene is projected to be 65.2 million tons in 2024, with Northeast Asia being the primary consumption region [45]. - In China, pure benzene consumption exceeds 25 million tons, with major downstream products including styrene and caprolactam [50][51].