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价格全方位多维跟踪体系(2025.08)反内卷语境看价格结构性修复
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-25 11:05
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 价格全方位多维跟踪体系(2025.08) 反内卷语境看价格结构性修复 流通领域重要生产资料价格跟踪 从绝对水平来看:截至 2025 年 8 月上旬,49 种主要产品中共有 19 种价格上 涨、28 种下降、2 种持平。上涨品种主要集中在上游煤炭(如无烟煤、焦炭 等)、中游农林(豆粕、天然橡胶、瓦楞纸等)以及下游化工(硫酸、甲醇、 涤纶长丝等),表现出供需趋紧与季节性需求带动的特征;下降品种则以黑 色金属(中板、角钢、热卷)、有色金属(铜、铝、锌等)、建材(水泥、 玻璃)、部分化工(PVC、顺丁橡胶、尿素)和能源(液化气、天然气、油 品)为主。下游需求不足及供应压力较大,整体价格承压。总体来看,价格 分化明显,上游能源与部分化工品景气回升,而黑色金属和建材链继续承压。 从同比数据来看:工业品同比整体仍在下行通道,但降幅逐步磨底持平。钢 铁、部分化工品率先修复转正;有色金属、部分化工龙头品种表现亮眼,硫 酸同比涨幅收窄至 49%;而煤炭、焦炭、传统建材、部分石化产品则仍深处 低位,市场进入"结构性修复+行业间分化"阶段。 上/中/下游不同产业链节点代表产品价格变化 近一月 ...
广信股份(603599) - 2025年第二季度主要经营数据的公告
2025-08-19 11:46
一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 | 项目 | 2025 | 年 | 4-6 | 月产 | 2025 | 年 | 4-6 | 月销量 | 2025 | 年 | 4-6 | 月销售 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 量(吨) | | | | | (吨) | | | | 金额(万元) | | | 主要农药原药 | | | | 9,474.79 | | | | 13,956.48 | | | | 42,316.24 | | 主要农药中间体 | | | 219,030.73 | | | | | 247,082.20 | | | | 42,542.80 | 二、主要产品价格变动情况(不含税) | 项目 | 2025年4-6月平均 | 2024年4-6月平均 | 价格变动情况 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售价格(元/吨) | 销售价格(元/吨) | | | 主要农药原药 | 30,320.14 | 28,916.07 | 4.86% | ...
苯乙烯产业链期货周报-20250819
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - The overall trading strategy for the styrene industry chain includes a side - way consolidation for single - side trading, shorting the spread between styrene and pure benzene (going long on pure benzene and short on styrene) for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options. The price of pure benzene is expected to be well - supported in the third quarter due to potential inventory reduction, while styrene's price is highly influenced by its cost side [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Side - way consolidation - Arbitrage: Short the spread between styrene and pure benzene (long pure benzene, short styrene) - Options: Sell both call and put options [5] 3.1.2 Pure Benzene Analysis - Price: This week, oil prices were in a side - way consolidation, and pure benzene futures prices trended down. Sinopec's pure benzene listed price increased by 100 yuan/ton on Tuesday. Spot prices were firm, with Shandong's market being strong. The arbitrage window between Shandong and East China remained closed. - Supply: Since late July, new units of CNOOC Daxie and Jingbo have been put into operation, and some cracked units have restarted after maintenance, increasing the supply of petroleum benzene. With rumors of production cuts in coking plants in Hebei and Shandong, the expected shortage of crude benzene supply has eased, and the loss of hydrogenated benzene has decreased, leading to increased production. - Demand: The downstream of pure benzene has seen a slight increase in operation, but with compressed profits. The inventory of pure benzene and its primary downstream has decreased. A new 670,000 - ton/year styrene production unit using ethylbenzene dehydrogenation in Jingbo Sida Rui has been successfully put into operation, but its load is currently low. There is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third - quarter for pure benzene [5]. 3.1.3 Styrene Analysis - Supply and demand: This week, both supply and demand of styrene increased. Port inventory decreased, low - price transactions increased, and the market's replenishment strength increased. However, styrene production is still at a loss. There are maintenance plans for Guangdong Petrochemical and Xingpu Chemical in September. A new 670,000 - ton/year styrene unit in Jingbo Sida Rui produced qualified products on August 6 but has not been officially sold. - Price influence: The supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have limited driving force, and its price is highly affected by the cost side [5]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Pure Benzene - Price: The price of pure benzene in North China is stronger than that in South China, and the regional arbitrage window remains closed. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha is stable, while the spread between pure benzene and styrene has widened [7][9]. - Supply: The operating rate of petroleum benzene has increased. According to Zhuochuang Information, the operating rate of petroleum benzene this week was 82.69%, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene has rebounded, and the loss has decreased [15][23]. - Demand: The downstream of pure benzene has seen a slight increase in operation, but profits have weakened. The inventory of pure benzene and its primary downstream has decreased [24][26][30]. 3.2.2 Styrene - Price: Port inventory has decreased, low - price transactions have increased, and the basis and calendar spread have strengthened. As of this Friday, the spot negotiation price of benzene in Jiangsu was 7290 - 7315 yuan/ton, and the negotiation prices for August and September were 7295 - 7325 yuan/ton and 7340 - 7370 yuan/ton respectively [34][35]. - Supply and demand: Both supply and demand of styrene have increased, but production is at a loss. There are maintenance plans for some enterprises in September. The 3S downstream has stable profits, increased operation, and rising inventory [41][46][48].
深入13家企业看华东纯苯产业全景
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-15 00:49
Core Viewpoint - The listing of pure benzene futures and options on July 8 provides enhanced risk management tools for the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, which is crucial given China's position as the largest producer and consumer of pure benzene globally [1][2]. Industry Overview - China accounts for 39% of global pure benzene production capacity and 43% of apparent consumption in 2024, with East China being the largest production and consumption area [1]. - The production capacity concentration in China is moderate, with the top three companies holding nearly 40% of the market share, where Sinopec alone accounts for 17.6% [2]. Pricing and Sales Mechanisms - Different scale refineries have varying sales methods for pure benzene, with large refineries primarily using contracts and pricing based on Sinopec's East China price [2]. - Trade enterprises often reference prices from sources like Argus and Platts for their pure benzene procurement, with imports mainly from South Korea and Southeast Asia [3]. Market Conditions and Outlook - The pure benzene market is currently experiencing a downturn due to insufficient downstream demand, but a supply-demand increase is expected in the second half of the year with over 1 million tons of new capacity planned [7]. - Inventory levels for pure benzene and styrene have risen to higher levels this year, with expectations of a de-inventory trend in August, followed by a potential accumulation in September and October [8]. Production and Operational Insights - The production processes for pure benzene are diverse, with catalytic reforming and ethylene cracking being the most significant methods [5]. - Maintenance cycles for pure benzene facilities typically occur every three years, with minor repairs having a limited impact on the market [6]. Futures Market Participation - Companies are increasingly engaging in futures trading for hedging purposes, with a notable number of enterprises participating in the pure benzene futures market [11]. - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options has enriched the risk management tools available to industry players, enhancing market liquidity [12].
华东纯苯产业调研报告(二)
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 06:00
格林大华期货研究院专题报告 期货研究院 | 能源化工研究员: | 吴志桥 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号: | F3085283 | | 交易咨询证号: | Z0019267 | 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间:2025年8月12日星期二 能源化工 2025年8月12日 华东纯苯产业调研报告(二) 摘要 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格: 此次华东调研一共拜访13家企业,涵盖纯苯和苯乙烯上 下游生产企业和贸易商,调研结论如下: (1)库存方面,华东纯苯进口偏多导致库存略偏高, 山东炼厂的纯苯库存整体偏低。今年上半年下游 ABS 库存 去化,但 7-8 月社会库存又有累积,九月传统旺季来临需求 将有所增长;EPS 国内销售下降,但出口增加抵消部分国内 市场下滑。(2)行情展望方面,认为未来价格趋势不明朗, 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 纯苯定价除自身供需外还会受到原油、宏观等因素影响。8 月纯苯内外盘倒挂,预期远期去库。纯苯产能释放供应端压 力渐增,供需面指引不强,整体预计略偏弱。(3)石油苯 和加氢苯价差方面,近年来两者价差逐渐缩小,价差在 30-50 元/吨附近较为合理。近 ...
中国纯苯供应格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 01:21
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the second in Huatai Futures' series on the listing of pure benzene, focusing on the domestic supply pattern of pure benzene in China [3] Group 2: China's Pure Benzene Capacity Investment - China still mainly uses petroleum benzene. Before 2019, the proportion of petroleum benzene capacity in benzene capacity was around 65%. After the wave of private large refinery startups in 2019, it has now risen to 75% [11] - Petroleum benzene is the main driver of the growth in the pure benzene supply. In 2025, the growth rate of benzene capacity is expected to be 7.1%, with petroleum benzene at 8.1% and hydrogenated benzene at only 4.2% [12] - The development of China's pure benzene capacity has gone through four stages: slow growth from the 1960s to the 1980s, rapid development in the 1980s, slowdown after 2010, and rapid expansion since 2019 [14][15] - In 2025, there is still pressure on pure benzene capacity investment. The growth rate of new petroleum benzene capacity is 8.1%, slightly higher than 6.6% in 2024. Attention should be paid to the startup rhythm of Yulong in the third quarter [16] - China's petroleum benzene production mainly comes from catalytic reforming, ethylene cracking, and toluene disproportionation. The proportion of catalytic reforming capacity has decreased to 44%, while toluene disproportionation has reached around 22%, and ethylene cracking has dropped to 23% [20] Group 3: China's Pure Benzene Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene supply is mainly dominated by state - owned enterprises, with private enterprises gradually playing an important role. Since 2014, the proportion of private enterprise capacity has been increasing [21] - State - owned enterprises still hold the majority of pure benzene capacity. Sinopec accounts for 25%, PetroChina 17%, and CNOOC 7%. Private refineries such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hengli, and Shenghong together account for nearly 24% [22][24] Group 4: Supplier Analysis by Process - For pure benzene produced by the catalytic reforming process, state - owned enterprises such as Sinopec (23%), PetroChina (18%), and CNOOC (5%) are the main suppliers, and private refineries account for 26%. The operation of reforming benzene is mainly planned, following refinery maintenance and profit [31] - For pure benzene produced by the ethylene cracking process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises is higher. Sinopec accounts for 41%, and private refineries account for 14%. The operation depends on ethylene cracking device maintenance and olefin demand [32] - For pure benzene produced by the toluene disproportionation process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises has decreased, and private refineries account for nearly 40%. The operation is flexible, depending on the profit of disproportionation and toluene demand for gasoline blending [33] Group 5: Regional Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene capacity is mainly concentrated in the East China region, accounting for 39%, followed by South China (23%) and Shandong (19%). East China is the main area for production, trade, and paper - based trading of pure benzene [38] Group 6: Hydrogenated Benzene Supply Pattern - In 2024, petroleum benzene production accounted for 71% of China's total pure benzene supply, imports 15%, and hydrogenated benzene 14% [46] - Hydrogenated benzene supply is mainly from private enterprises, and its capacity has grown slowly since 2016. Capacity is concentrated in North China and Shandong, and the industry concentration is relatively low [46][48]
攻关挖潜降成本——兖矿鲁南化工环己酮车间改进原料苯掺配工艺纪实
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-05-14 02:23
Core Insights - The market research indicates that hydrogenated benzene has a significant cost advantage over petroleum benzene [1] - However, trace organic impurities in hydrogenated benzene may impact the hydrogenation reaction of cyclohexanone, necessitating the identification of specific influence points to address [1] Group 1: Cost Structure and Raw Material Usage - The proportion of benzene in the total raw material cost for Lunan Chemical has reached 21%, with nearly 300,000 tons of benzene used annually in the cyclohexanone unit [1] - The primary raw materials used in the industry are petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene, with petroleum benzene being purer but more expensive [1] - As the system stabilizes, there is an urgent need to diversify benzene raw materials and reduce costs [1] Group 2: Implementation and Results - The cyclohexanone workshop has implemented strict quality control measures for incoming hydrogenated benzene and conducted research on production processes at suppliers [2] - Initial blending of hydrogenated benzene began with a 20% ratio, which has been increased to 69.5% by Q1 2025, resulting in a reduction of production costs by several dozen yuan per ton [2] - The local production of hydrogenated benzene has also led to savings in transportation costs, contributing to an annual reduction in raw material costs of nearly 10 million yuan [2] Group 3: Innovation and Future Plans - The successful application of hydrogenated benzene demonstrates the workshop's innovation capabilities and sets a benchmark for cost reduction and efficiency improvement at Lunan Chemical [3] - The workshop plans to continue optimizing processes and researching raw material structures to further explore cost reduction potential and support high-quality development [3]
广信股份(603599) - 2025年第一季度主要经营数据的公告
2025-04-27 08:12
| 项目 | 2025 年第一季度 | | 2024 年第一季度 | 价格变动情况(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 平均销售价格 | | 平均销售价格 | | | | (元/吨) | | (元/吨) | | | 主要农药原药 | | 32,049.35 | 28,218.52 | 13.58 | | 主要农药中间体 | | 2,093.47 | 2,929.28 | -28.53 | 三、主要原材料价格波动情况(不含税) 证券代码:603599 证券简称:广信股份 编号:2025-013 安徽广信农化股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏并 对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十八号—化工》、《关于 做好上市公司 2025 年第一季度报告披露工作的通知》的要求,安徽广信农化股 份有限公司(以下简称"公司")现将 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据披露如下: 二、主要产品价格变动情况(不含税) | 项目 | ...
广信股份(603599) - 2024年度主要经营数据的公告
2025-04-27 08:12
证券代码:603599 证券简称:广信股份 编号:2025-011 2024 年度主要经营数据的公告 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十八号—化工》、《关于 做好上市公司 2024 年度报告披露工作的通知》的要求,安徽广信农化股份有限 公司(以下简称"公司")现将 2024 年度主要经营数据披露如下: | 项目 | | 2024 年 | 1-12 | 月平均 | 2023 年 1-12 | 月平均 | 价格变动情况(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 采购价格(元/吨) | | | 采购价格(元/吨) | | | | | 3,4 | 二氯苯胺 | | | 14,825.70 | | 15,399.49 | | -3.73 | | 甲醇 | | | | 2,337.88 | | 2,257.18 | | 3.58 | | 液碱 | | | | 936.24 | | 956.28 | | -2.10 | | 硫氰酸钠 | | | | 5,970.36 | | 6,913.73 | | -13.64 ...