中国银河近日发布价格全方位多维跟踪体系：截至2025年9月中旬，49种主要生产资料 中共有21种价格上涨、25种下降、3种基本持平。上涨品种集中在上游煤炭（无烟煤、普通 混煤、大同混煤等）、中游有色金属（铜、铝、铅、锌）以及部分化工（甲醇、PVC、石油 苯等）和农林产品（大豆、花生、天然橡胶、瓦楞纸等），显示供需改善及季节性需求支 撑。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 流通领域重要生产资料价格跟踪 各行业价格景气数据跟踪 从价格看，9月产业链继续分化：9月产业链价格分化：上游设备、电气机械、新能源、 信息技术、汽车等来料上涨明显，化工、有色阶段性走强带动中游成本上行；产出端新能 源、高端装备等提价占比回升但不及来料，纺织、化纤橡塑、非金属建材仍偏弱；服务端交 通运输、批零、信息服务提价广泛，地产与基建链条同步回升。利润上，新能源、高端装备 等具备传导能力行业扩张；化纤橡塑、非金属建材等毛利受压；地产基建处于修复。整体传 导向中下游扩散，制造与服务利润弹性较强，传统中游承压。 风险提示：海外地缘冲突加剧；海外央行货币政策的不确定性（国信证券 王开,陈凯 畅） 【责任编辑：杨梓安 】 从绝对水平来看：截至2025 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a structural price recovery in the context of anti-involution, with significant price variations across different sectors, indicating a phase of "structural recovery + inter-industry differentiation" [1][2][3] Price Tracking of Key Production Materials - As of early August 2025, among 49 major products, 19 saw price increases, 28 experienced declines, and 2 remained stable. The price increases were primarily in upstream coal (e.g., anthracite, coke), midstream agriculture (e.g., soybean meal, natural rubber), and downstream chemicals (e.g., sulfuric acid, methanol) [1] - Year-on-year data shows that industrial products are still in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is stabilizing. Steel and some chemical products have begun to recover, while coal, coke, traditional building materials, and certain petrochemical products remain at low levels [1][2] Price Changes Across Industry Chains - Recent data indicates that upstream industries are generally weak, with coal prices declining by 6% to 7%. Oil prices (WTI, Brent) have seen double-digit declines, while natural gas prices, despite being high year-on-year (28%), have significantly narrowed in growth [2] - Midstream industries show signs of recovery, with the bulk commodity index and shipping index rebounding, while downstream industries remain weak, particularly in real estate and traditional Chinese medicine [2][3] Industry Price Sentiment Data - The report analyzes price changes across the supply chain, revealing that upstream resource prices are generally weak but differentiated, with copper, aluminum, and precious metals benefiting, while the oil and coal sectors remain under pressure [3] - The midstream bulk commodity index has rebounded, and the price decline of rebar has narrowed to near stability. However, the building materials sector continues to face significant negative pressure [3]

一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 | 项目 | 2025 | 年 | 4-6 | 月产 | 2025 | 年 | 4-6 | 月销量 | 2025 | 年 | 4-6 | 月销售 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 量（吨） | | | | | （吨） | | | | 金额（万元） | | | 主要农药原药 | | | | 9,474.79 | | | | 13,956.48 | | | | 42,316.24 | | 主要农药中间体 | | | 219,030.73 | | | | | 247,082.20 | | | | 42,542.80 | 二、主要产品价格变动情况（不含税） | 项目 | 2025年4-6月平均 | 2024年4-6月平均 | 价格变动情况 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售价格（元/吨） | 销售价格（元/吨） | | | 主要农药原药 | 30,320.14 | 28,916.07 | 4.86% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - The overall trading strategy for the styrene industry chain includes a side - way consolidation for single - side trading, shorting the spread between styrene and pure benzene (going long on pure benzene and short on styrene) for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options. The price of pure benzene is expected to be well - supported in the third quarter due to potential inventory reduction, while styrene's price is highly influenced by its cost side [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Side - way consolidation - Arbitrage: Short the spread between styrene and pure benzene (long pure benzene, short styrene) - Options: Sell both call and put options [5] 3.1.2 Pure Benzene Analysis - Price: This week, oil prices were in a side - way consolidation, and pure benzene futures prices trended down. Sinopec's pure benzene listed price increased by 100 yuan/ton on Tuesday. Spot prices were firm, with Shandong's market being strong. The arbitrage window between Shandong and East China remained closed. - Supply: Since late July, new units of CNOOC Daxie and Jingbo have been put into operation, and some cracked units have restarted after maintenance, increasing the supply of petroleum benzene. With rumors of production cuts in coking plants in Hebei and Shandong, the expected shortage of crude benzene supply has eased, and the loss of hydrogenated benzene has decreased, leading to increased production. - Demand: The downstream of pure benzene has seen a slight increase in operation, but with compressed profits. The inventory of pure benzene and its primary downstream has decreased. A new 670,000 - ton/year styrene production unit using ethylbenzene dehydrogenation in Jingbo Sida Rui has been successfully put into operation, but its load is currently low. There is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third - quarter for pure benzene [5]. 3.1.3 Styrene Analysis - Supply and demand: This week, both supply and demand of styrene increased. Port inventory decreased, low - price transactions increased, and the market's replenishment strength increased. However, styrene production is still at a loss. There are maintenance plans for Guangdong Petrochemical and Xingpu Chemical in September. A new 670,000 - ton/year styrene unit in Jingbo Sida Rui produced qualified products on August 6 but has not been officially sold. - Price influence: The supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have limited driving force, and its price is highly affected by the cost side [5]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Pure Benzene - Price: The price of pure benzene in North China is stronger than that in South China, and the regional arbitrage window remains closed. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha is stable, while the spread between pure benzene and styrene has widened [7][9]. - Supply: The operating rate of petroleum benzene has increased. According to Zhuochuang Information, the operating rate of petroleum benzene this week was 82.69%, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene has rebounded, and the loss has decreased [15][23]. - Demand: The downstream of pure benzene has seen a slight increase in operation, but profits have weakened. The inventory of pure benzene and its primary downstream has decreased [24][26][30]. 3.2.2 Styrene - Price: Port inventory has decreased, low - price transactions have increased, and the basis and calendar spread have strengthened. As of this Friday, the spot negotiation price of benzene in Jiangsu was 7290 - 7315 yuan/ton, and the negotiation prices for August and September were 7295 - 7325 yuan/ton and 7340 - 7370 yuan/ton respectively [34][35]. - Supply and demand: Both supply and demand of styrene have increased, but production is at a loss. There are maintenance plans for some enterprises in September. The 3S downstream has stable profits, increased operation, and rising inventory [41][46][48].

Core Viewpoint - The listing of pure benzene futures and options on July 8 provides enhanced risk management tools for the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, which is crucial given China's position as the largest producer and consumer of pure benzene globally [1][2]. Industry Overview - China accounts for 39% of global pure benzene production capacity and 43% of apparent consumption in 2024, with East China being the largest production and consumption area [1]. - The production capacity concentration in China is moderate, with the top three companies holding nearly 40% of the market share, where Sinopec alone accounts for 17.6% [2]. Pricing and Sales Mechanisms - Different scale refineries have varying sales methods for pure benzene, with large refineries primarily using contracts and pricing based on Sinopec's East China price [2]. - Trade enterprises often reference prices from sources like Argus and Platts for their pure benzene procurement, with imports mainly from South Korea and Southeast Asia [3]. Market Conditions and Outlook - The pure benzene market is currently experiencing a downturn due to insufficient downstream demand, but a supply-demand increase is expected in the second half of the year with over 1 million tons of new capacity planned [7]. - Inventory levels for pure benzene and styrene have risen to higher levels this year, with expectations of a de-inventory trend in August, followed by a potential accumulation in September and October [8]. Production and Operational Insights - The production processes for pure benzene are diverse, with catalytic reforming and ethylene cracking being the most significant methods [5]. - Maintenance cycles for pure benzene facilities typically occur every three years, with minor repairs having a limited impact on the market [6]. Futures Market Participation - Companies are increasingly engaging in futures trading for hedging purposes, with a notable number of enterprises participating in the pure benzene futures market [11]. - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options has enriched the risk management tools available to industry players, enhancing market liquidity [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Inventory:华东纯苯进口偏多导致库存略偏高，山东炼厂的纯苯库存整体偏低；今年上半年下游 ABS 库存去化，但 7 - 8 月社会库存又有累积，九月传统旺季来临需求将有所增长；EPS 国内销售下降，但出口增加抵消部分国内市场下滑 [3] - Price Outlook:未来纯苯价格趋势不明朗，定价除自身供需外还受原油、宏观等因素影响；8 月纯苯内外盘倒挂，预期远期去库；纯苯产能释放供应端压力渐增，供需面指引不强，整体预计略偏弱 [3] - Price Spread:近年来石油苯和加氢苯价差逐渐缩小，价差在 30 - 50 元/吨附近较为合理；部分加氢苯质量接近或超越石油苯，但企业更倾向于石油苯，加氢苯会减少催化剂使用寿命 [3] 3. Company Summaries Pure Benzene Trader A - Business:涵盖工程设计、咨询服务、国内外贸易成套工程及投资发展四大板块，主业是招投标及代理，大宗商品贸易以进口代理为主，年营收超百亿，自营品种包括煤炭、天然气、纯苯 [4] - Business Model:纯苯自营采购来自韩国进口、炼厂及贸易商货源，参与港口纸货；销售以中石化合约为主，对接华东、华南公司，月均货量 1 万吨左右；纸货业务配合长约，偶尔单边操作 [5] - Inventory:低库存运转，下游销项合约方面行业库存偏高，中石化自身库存偏高 [6] - Market View:对未来价格趋势不乐观，价格受多种因素影响方向不清晰；对苯乙烯基差无明显季节性规律感受，低库存周期基差弹性放大 [7] - Futures Participation:招投标等板块优势明显，大宗商品业务以代理为主，自营辅助，目前参与期货、期权较少 [8] Pure Benzene Producer B - Business:纯苯产能 24 万吨/年，常减压一次加工能力 300 万吨，后续配套多项深加工装置 [9] - Business Model:纯苯外销为主，30%长约匹配余量现货，现货以公路自提为主，通过企业汽油竞拍平态成交，指导价参考地区及主流资讯公司价格 [10] - Trade Flow and Operation:纯苯下游主要流向苏北、安徽；地炼装置整体降负荷，企业维持高负荷运转，原因包括经营理念和原油配额受限 [11] - Futures Application:未进行期货或纸货操作，但对厂库及参与期货积极，需企业内部统一规划；油化比例 7:3，化工占比高 [12] Pure Benzene Producer C - Business:主营业务包括炼油产品、化工基础原料等业务；工厂有两套 2000 万吨炼油长解压装置，一套重整匹配歧化，一套乙烯装置待开通实现炼化一体化 [13] - Maintenance Cycle:刚刚投产，暂时无检修计划，行业传统 3 年一大检，小检修不影响市场 [14] - Sales:纯苯日外销 800 - 1000 吨，基本为现货，量大后倾向合约；定价以中石化华东为基准，产量波动后一口价调节 [15] - Import and Export:出口占比低，苯乙烯出口几十万吨影响不大；进出口可平衡，以效益和利润为先 [16] - Downstream Demand:苯乙烯需求前景好，占比大且利润好 [17] - Futures Application:苯乙烯期货指导大于现货，纯苯影响不大；后期成立期货部筹备中，涉及品种多；纯苯稳定后可能参与交割库申请 [18] ABS Producer D - Business:三条 ABS 产能投产，设计产能 22.5 万吨，规划二期三期 22.5 万吨待投产，改性投产 5 万吨，共 15 万吨改性 [19] - Production and Sales:苯乙烯全部外采，现货按单谈合约；开工负荷受苯乙烯价格、整体成本及未来趋势等因素影响 [20] - Sales Region:全国销售，下游主要集中华东华南，华北西南也有市场，家电汽车是大头，汽车领域应用多；销售定价一单一谈 [21] - Industry Inventory:2025 年上半年 ABS 产能增长 25%，厂家库存上半年去化，七八月社库累积，九月需求缓慢增长 [22] - Third - Quarter Demand:受国补、出口政策、关税等影响，去年下半年到今年上半年国内家电产量超去年 15 - 20%；汽车产量可观但透支后续需求，今年下半年预计萎缩，大家电 7/8 月进入淡季，需求增速无法支撑上游产量增幅 [23] - Futures Application:苯乙烯期货有利有弊，带来风险但提供价格参考；企业短期无计划参与期货，因参与者水平参差不齐，无专业人才 [24] Pure Benzene Producer E - Business:拥有常减压等多套装置，生产 10 多种产品，纯苯产能 60 万吨，是山东省最大纯苯生产企业 [25] - Production and Sales:根据利润调整开工负荷比例；定价合约部分为年度长约，参考山东双环等价格，零散销售，合约占比 60%以上；销售范围以山东为主，物流车提多，自提为主 [26] - Inventory:低库存，华东进口货多库存偏高，山东炼厂整体偏低 [27] - Third - Quarter Demand:抢出口需求前置有影响，山东与华东、全国有差异，需求不佳且日韩来量多 [28] - Futures:纯苯上市增加链条品种，交割提供新路径，后期替代部分纸货量；有期货团队，套保多，参与品种多，不算原油期货规模 10 万吨/月，原油 8 万吨/月 [28] Styrene Producer E - Business:纯苯日需求量 1200 吨，用于生产苯乙烯，需求稳定；采购渠道包括自产、合约采购、招标采购和厂家直采，无进口采购 [29] - Production and Inventory:苯乙烯产能 50 万吨/年，满负荷运行，生产负荷根据利润调整；原料纯苯库存维持 5 - 6 天，最高 8 - 9 天；苯乙烯库存较低 [30] - Sales:销售区域主要是山东周边，价差大于 220 元/吨时部分产品销往华东；合约销售与现货销售各占 50%左右 [31] - Market View:价格走向不明朗，纯苯产能释放供应端压力渐增，预计略偏弱；进口对当地纯苯价格影响小；对纯苯和苯乙烯价差不过分悲观 [32] - Futures Participation:暂未开展期货业务，以纸货操作为主，关注期货价格；待成为苯乙烯交割库后开展期货业务；认为更多企业会倾向使用期货工具 [33] Phenolic Resin Producer F - Business:总部位于济南章丘，是全球最大酚醛树脂生产工厂，运营两家苯加氢工厂，构建完整供应链体系 [34] - Raw Materials:采购粗苯生产加氢苯为主，粗苯 2/3 来自国内山东、东北、西北等地，1/3 来自俄罗斯进口；山东粗苯定价参考铁雄价格，东北参考三省均价 [37] - Inventory:常规库存维持 1 周生产所需，加工利润好时增加采购，有自有储罐 [38] - Sales:纯苯产品外销，采购苯酚用于酚醛树脂生产；销售策略根据市场价格和库存灵活调整，倾向现货交易，纸货参与量低；期货上市后当地纯苯纸货成交量放大 [39] - Market View:今年纯苯市场低迷，利润空间小，原因是下游终端需求不足；下半年预期悲观，关注短期行情 [40] - Futures Participation:有零星参与苯乙烯投机；因合约较远未参与纯苯期货，但有意向，可根据市场形成期货团队；认为期货与现货价格联动性强，近月期货对现货报价有参考作用；预计纯苯期货上市后加氢苯与石油苯价差缩小 [41]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the second in Huatai Futures' series on the listing of pure benzene, focusing on the domestic supply pattern of pure benzene in China [3] Group 2: China's Pure Benzene Capacity Investment - China still mainly uses petroleum benzene. Before 2019, the proportion of petroleum benzene capacity in benzene capacity was around 65%. After the wave of private large refinery startups in 2019, it has now risen to 75% [11] - Petroleum benzene is the main driver of the growth in the pure benzene supply. In 2025, the growth rate of benzene capacity is expected to be 7.1%, with petroleum benzene at 8.1% and hydrogenated benzene at only 4.2% [12] - The development of China's pure benzene capacity has gone through four stages: slow growth from the 1960s to the 1980s, rapid development in the 1980s, slowdown after 2010, and rapid expansion since 2019 [14][15] - In 2025, there is still pressure on pure benzene capacity investment. The growth rate of new petroleum benzene capacity is 8.1%, slightly higher than 6.6% in 2024. Attention should be paid to the startup rhythm of Yulong in the third quarter [16] - China's petroleum benzene production mainly comes from catalytic reforming, ethylene cracking, and toluene disproportionation. The proportion of catalytic reforming capacity has decreased to 44%, while toluene disproportionation has reached around 22%, and ethylene cracking has dropped to 23% [20] Group 3: China's Pure Benzene Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene supply is mainly dominated by state - owned enterprises, with private enterprises gradually playing an important role. Since 2014, the proportion of private enterprise capacity has been increasing [21] - State - owned enterprises still hold the majority of pure benzene capacity. Sinopec accounts for 25%, PetroChina 17%, and CNOOC 7%. Private refineries such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hengli, and Shenghong together account for nearly 24% [22][24] Group 4: Supplier Analysis by Process - For pure benzene produced by the catalytic reforming process, state - owned enterprises such as Sinopec (23%), PetroChina (18%), and CNOOC (5%) are the main suppliers, and private refineries account for 26%. The operation of reforming benzene is mainly planned, following refinery maintenance and profit [31] - For pure benzene produced by the ethylene cracking process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises is higher. Sinopec accounts for 41%, and private refineries account for 14%. The operation depends on ethylene cracking device maintenance and olefin demand [32] - For pure benzene produced by the toluene disproportionation process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises has decreased, and private refineries account for nearly 40%. The operation is flexible, depending on the profit of disproportionation and toluene demand for gasoline blending [33] Group 5: Regional Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene capacity is mainly concentrated in the East China region, accounting for 39%, followed by South China (23%) and Shandong (19%). East China is the main area for production, trade, and paper - based trading of pure benzene [38] Group 6: Hydrogenated Benzene Supply Pattern - In 2024, petroleum benzene production accounted for 71% of China's total pure benzene supply, imports 15%, and hydrogenated benzene 14% [46] - Hydrogenated benzene supply is mainly from private enterprises, and its capacity has grown slowly since 2016. Capacity is concentrated in North China and Shandong, and the industry concentration is relatively low [46][48]

Group 1 - The article discusses the definition and classification of pure benzene, highlighting its significance as a basic petrochemical raw material and its carcinogenic properties [2][8]. - Pure benzene is categorized into two types: petroleum benzene and coking benzene, with distinct production processes and quality standards [5][8]. - The quality standards for petroleum benzene and coking benzene are specified, including purity levels and allowable impurities [6][7]. Group 2 - The production processes for pure benzene include reforming, cracking, and toluene disproportionation, with various sources contributing to its supply [11][12]. - The global pure benzene production capacity is projected to reach 83.31 million tons by 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [29]. - China’s pure benzene capacity is expected to be 25.73 million tons by 2024, with a growth rate of 6.9% [31]. Group 3 - China is a net importer of pure benzene, with imports expected to reach 3.768 million tons in 2024, a 31.1% increase year-on-year [40]. - The global demand for pure benzene is projected to be 65.2 million tons in 2024, with Northeast Asia being the primary consumption region [45]. - In China, pure benzene consumption exceeds 25 million tons, with major downstream products including styrene and caprolactam [50][51].

Core Insights - The market research indicates that hydrogenated benzene has a significant cost advantage over petroleum benzene [1] - However, trace organic impurities in hydrogenated benzene may impact the hydrogenation reaction of cyclohexanone, necessitating the identification of specific influence points to address [1] Group 1: Cost Structure and Raw Material Usage - The proportion of benzene in the total raw material cost for Lunan Chemical has reached 21%, with nearly 300,000 tons of benzene used annually in the cyclohexanone unit [1] - The primary raw materials used in the industry are petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene, with petroleum benzene being purer but more expensive [1] - As the system stabilizes, there is an urgent need to diversify benzene raw materials and reduce costs [1] Group 2: Implementation and Results - The cyclohexanone workshop has implemented strict quality control measures for incoming hydrogenated benzene and conducted research on production processes at suppliers [2] - Initial blending of hydrogenated benzene began with a 20% ratio, which has been increased to 69.5% by Q1 2025, resulting in a reduction of production costs by several dozen yuan per ton [2] - The local production of hydrogenated benzene has also led to savings in transportation costs, contributing to an annual reduction in raw material costs of nearly 10 million yuan [2] Group 3: Innovation and Future Plans - The successful application of hydrogenated benzene demonstrates the workshop's innovation capabilities and sets a benchmark for cost reduction and efficiency improvement at Lunan Chemical [3] - The workshop plans to continue optimizing processes and researching raw material structures to further explore cost reduction potential and support high-quality development [3]

| 项目 | 2025 年第一季度 | | 2024 年第一季度 | 价格变动情况（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 平均销售价格 | | 平均销售价格 | | | | （元/吨） | | （元/吨） | | | 主要农药原药 | | 32,049.35 | 28,218.52 | 13.58 | | 主要农药中间体 | | 2,093.47 | 2,929.28 | -28.53 | 三、主要原材料价格波动情况（不含税） 证券代码：603599 证券简称：广信股份 编号：2025-013 安徽广信农化股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏并 对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十八号—化工》、《关于 做好上市公司 2025 年第一季度报告披露工作的通知》的要求，安徽广信农化股 份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据披露如下： 二、主要产品价格变动情况（不含税） | 项目 | ...