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国泰海通|基金配置:风险逐步释放,配置继续两端走——大类资产配置多维度解决方案(2025年6月)
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-19 14:01
Core Viewpoint - The report captures global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and designs corresponding investment strategies, including equity and bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The equity-bond target allocation strategy employs a risk budgeting design to construct a portfolio that achieves the desired allocation level, offering a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation strategies [2]. - The low-volatility "fixed income+" strategy combines domestic stocks, bonds, and gold with a target allocation of stocks:gold:bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.86% and a volatility of 3.50% over the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to May 30, 2025 [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I, which includes A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieved an annualized return of 11.23% and a volatility of 5.88% over the backtest period from January 2, 2014, to May 30, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Recommendations - For A-shares, the report suggests maintaining a barbell strategy, focusing on high-quality assets in large caps and trading-type assets in small caps, as risks are gradually released after recent pullbacks [4]. - In the domestic bond market, the report recommends focusing on short-term products while considering medium to long-term interest rate bonds or extending the duration of credit bonds due to ongoing economic pressures [4]. - The report indicates that US stocks may continue to experience wide fluctuations due to uncertainties in economic policies and marginal declines in economic conditions [4]. - Japanese stocks may present short-term investment opportunities due to a positive wage-price spiral and continued foreign capital inflows [4]. - Indian stocks are expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to marginal declines in economic conditions and outflows of foreign capital [4]. - Gold prices are anticipated to experience wide fluctuations due to easing tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts, although the long-term upward trend remains clear [4].
国泰海通|基金配置:权益稳扎稳打,黄金短期震荡——大类资产配置多维度解决方案(2025年5月)
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-13 13:11
Core Viewpoint - The report aims to capture global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and design corresponding investment strategies, including equity and bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The equity-bond target allocation strategy utilizes a risk budget design method to construct a portfolio that achieves the desired allocation level while providing a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation portfolios [2]. - The low-volatility "fixed income +" strategy constructs a portfolio with a target allocation of equity: gold: bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.91% and a maximum drawdown of -4.92% over the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2025 [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I, which includes A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieved an annualized return of 11.22% with a maximum drawdown of -7.97% over the backtest period from January 2, 2014, to April 30, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Recommendations - As of May 2025, the report suggests a cautious approach to A-shares due to ongoing tariff impacts, recommending a "barbell strategy" focusing on stable cash flow assets and technology + domestic demand as key themes [5]. - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from a broad interest rate decline due to the central bank's monetary policy easing, with a focus on short-term securities and potential adjustments in long-term bonds [5]. - For US stocks, the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies remains, with short-term fluctuations expected as the market reacts to tariff impacts on the US economy [5]. - Japanese stocks may present short-term opportunities due to easing tariffs and improving economic conditions [5]. - Indian stocks are anticipated to experience upward movement due to economic resilience and foreign capital inflows [5][6].