Summary of New Steel Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: New Steel Co. (新钢股份) - **Date**: September 18, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - **Net Profit Growth**: New Steel Co. reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of the year, reaching 174 million yuan, an increase of 152 million yuan year-on-year [4][2] - **Production and Sales Decline**: The company experienced a 13.93% decrease in production and a 12.04% decrease in sales compared to the previous year, primarily due to a major furnace overhaul in Q1 and increased environmental investment [2][6] - **Profitability Comparison**: Despite the growth in net profit, there remains a gap compared to Q4 of the previous year, attributed to the costs associated with the furnace overhaul and environmental compliance [2][6] Strategic Initiatives - **High-Value Product Focus**: The company is shifting towards producing high-value, high-margin products, with a notable 97.6% increase in high-end hot-rolled products [2][9] - **Cost Management**: New Steel Co. has successfully reduced logistics costs by over 100 million yuan in the first half of the year through increased sea freight and negotiating railway transport discounts [2][6] - **Collaboration with Baowu Group**: The partnership with Baowu Group has enhanced procurement efficiency, particularly in raw materials and auxiliary materials, leading to cost advantages [2][8][16] Market Strategy - **End-Market Development**: The company has focused on maintaining and expanding its end-market presence, particularly in high-strength carbon plates and international markets like the Middle East, achieving a 66.7% focus on key customers [5][10] - **Production Adjustments**: New Steel Co. plans to continue adjusting production based on profitability, with expectations for improved performance in Q3 compared to Q2 [3][17] Investment and Cash Management - **Investment Income**: The company's investment income has decreased due to lower interest rates set by the central bank, impacting returns from long-term financial products [11][12] - **Cash Reserves**: New Steel Co. holds substantial cash reserves (approximately 2-3 billion yuan) for loan repayments, raw material purchases, and technological upgrades [12][13] Environmental and Regulatory Compliance - **Environmental Investments**: Increased spending on environmental projects has impacted costs, but the company is committed to complying with national policies and improving production efficiency [2][9][20] Future Outlook - **Market Trends**: The company anticipates that the profitability trend will continue into Q3, driven by structural adjustments and a focus on high-margin products [3][17] - **Dividend Policy**: New Steel Co. has maintained a high dividend payout ratio exceeding 90%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [18][19] Challenges and Risks - **Loan Pressure**: The company faces pressure from environmental loans, which may limit profit flexibility [2][6] - **Market Volatility**: Fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly coking coal, could impact procurement strategies and overall cost management [14][15] Conclusion New Steel Co. is navigating a challenging environment with strategic shifts towards high-value products, effective cost management, and a strong focus on compliance and market development. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic with expectations for continued profitability improvements in the upcoming quarters.

Core Insights - Tianyoude Liquor reported a revenue of 674 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11.24%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.46 million yuan, down 35.37% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on a strategic framework termed "Four Transformations" which includes county-level, international, youth-oriented, and terminal-focused strategies to adapt to changes in domestic consumption and competition in the liquor industry [3][5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Qingke Baijiu decreased by 10.97% to 570 million yuan, with a gross margin of 68.10%, down 0.46 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end products priced at 100 yuan (inclusive) per 500ml fell by 10.19%, with a gross margin decrease of 1.08 percentage points [2] - Revenue from wine products was 4.64 million yuan, a decline of 6.89% year-on-year [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to invest 160 million yuan in a cultural tourism winery project in Tibet, aiming to integrate unique cultural and ecological resources into a brand identity that is difficult to replicate [3] - Tianyoude Liquor is actively exploring new market growth points, particularly in developing youth-oriented products such as low-alcohol, fruit-flavored, and health-focused options [3][4] - The company is also enhancing its product offerings with innovative designs and packaging to accelerate its national expansion [3] Market Expansion - Key markets for expansion include Gansu and Sichuan, with strategies to integrate local markets and leverage tourism to promote products [4] - The company has introduced new products like a 28-degree lemon Qingke liquor and a snow pear flowing sand liquor to cater to emerging consumer preferences [4] Marketing Strategy - The "county-level" strategy is a crucial part of the company's "Four Transformations," focusing on the unique economic environment of county markets, which are less affected by economic pressures [5] - The company emphasizes the need for a flat marketing channel strategy, inspired by successful models in the U.S., to enhance efficiency and effectiveness in sales [5]

Group 1: Company Strategy - The company’s strategy includes "county-based" development as part of its "Four Modernizations" strategy, which also encompasses youth-oriented, international, and terminal-focused approaches [3] - County-based marketing is prioritized due to its alignment with the current economic environment in China, where county-level markets are less affected by economic pressures [3] - The company aims to optimize its product and marketing strategies to reflect county characteristics, especially within Qinghai Province [3] Group 2: Product and Market Development - The company has a diverse product range in the light bottle liquor market, including brands like Huzhu Daqu and Bai Qingke, with Bai Qingke performing notably well in the province [4] - Adjustments have been made to expand channels outside Qinghai, focusing on light bottle liquor and mid-range boxed liquor to align with market trends [4] - The company is responding to the trend of rational consumption by optimizing its product structure [4] Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The impact of the alcohol ban on regional famous liquors is relatively minor, as the company’s main products cater to daily consumer needs [5] - The company is accelerating its county-based strategy to mitigate the effects of the ban and is focusing on differentiating its products, particularly those made from barley [5] Group 4: Product Line Management - The star product series, which generates the highest sales, has undergone brand revitalization and the introduction of new variants to enhance visibility during key holidays [6] - The company is implementing volume control and price standardization across online channels to maintain profitability at retail points [6] Group 5: Youth-Oriented Products - The company is exploring the launch of youth-oriented products, including fruit-flavored options and a low-alcohol lemon liquor, with plans for a barley champagne in the future [7]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Strategy - The company experienced a decline in first-quarter performance, with a plan to improve sales in the second quarter through activities related to the Dragon Boat Festival and tourism season [2][5]. - The company’s market strategy focuses on "county-level, youth-oriented, internationalization, and terminalization," with a particular emphasis on the "Jin, Shan, Yu" markets [6][8]. - The company plans to increase market expenses by over 30 million yuan year-on-year in 2024, while the net profit impact from the stock incentive plan is estimated to be over 25 million yuan [8]. Group 2: Product Development and Marketing - The company is actively seeking growth opportunities in county-level markets, targeting younger consumers, and exploring the light bottle wine segment priced around 100 yuan [3][4]. - New product launches include a low-alcohol lemon-flavored barley wine aimed at younger consumers, and plans to introduce fruit-flavored low or medium-low alcohol products [6][7]. - Brand promotion efforts include differentiated management and active engagement in media and short video advertising, with successful campaigns like train naming activities enhancing brand awareness [5][6]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Chain Management - The company maintains a reasonable inventory level, with strict control over distributor inventory turnover set at 1-2 months, ensuring no significant changes in stock levels [6][9]. - The production capacity remains robust, with over 50,000 tons of raw and semi-finished products available to meet sales demands [9][10]. Group 4: Consumer Trends and Feedback - The company is adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics, by developing products that align with trends towards lower alcohol and healthier options [6][11]. - Consumer feedback indicates an improving brand reputation, with ongoing efforts to engage customers through promotional activities and member incentives [9][10]. Group 5: External Challenges and Risk Management - The company acknowledges the impact of external factors such as the alcohol ban, but asserts that its focus on affordable staple liquor minimizes the overall effect on performance [11][12]. - The company is committed to quality control throughout the production process, ensuring that raw material prices remain stable and costs are effectively managed [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance is under pressure, but industry recovery may drive performance recovery [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 41.8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 41.2%, and a net profit of 0.33 billion yuan, down 93.4% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.7%, with a net profit of 0.12 billion yuan, an increase of 1.69 billion yuan year-on-year but a decrease of 98.0% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The company is focusing on high-end and terminal products, with high-end products accounting for 55.27% of total production in 2024, an increase of 6.84 percentage points from 2023 [5]. - The company is implementing energy-saving and emission-reduction modifications, with a target of creating a benchmark for low-carbon practices in the industry [5]. - The controlling shareholder plans to repurchase shares, demonstrating confidence in the company's future [5]. Financial Summary - The company expects net profits of 0.89 billion yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 1.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.1x, 10.9x, and 9.3x based on the closing price on May 13 [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 37.01 billion yuan, 36.82 billion yuan, and 37.05 billion yuan, with growth rates of -11.47%, -0.50%, and 0.63% respectively [7]. - The EBITDA for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 2.49 billion yuan, 2.89 billion yuan, and 3.25 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 52.36 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase to 52.99 billion yuan in 2025 [10][13].